Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.

Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic.

Antibiotic Consumption in a Cohort of Hospitalized Adults with Viral Respiratory Tract Infection.

Development of antibiotic resistance, a threat to global health, is driven by inappropriate antibiotic usage. Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are frequently treated empirically with antibiotics, despite the fact that a majority of the infections are caused by viruses. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of antibiotic treatment in hospitalized adults with viral RTIs, and to investigate factors influencing the antibiotic decision-making. We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients ≥ 18 years, hospitalized in 2015-2018 with viral RTIs. Microbiological data were taken from the laboratory information system and information on antibiotic treatment drawn from the hospital records. To investigate decisions for prescribing antibiotic treatment, we evaluated relevant factors such as laboratory and radiological results, in addition to clinical signs. In 951 cases without secondary bacterial RTIs (median age 73 years, 53% female), 720 (76%) were prescribed antibiotic treatment, most frequently beta-lactamase-sensitive penicillins, but cephalosporins were prescribed as first-line in 16% of the cases. The median length of treatment (LOT) in the patients treated with antibiotics was seven days. Patients treated with antibiotics had an average of two days longer hospital stay compared to patients with no such treatment, but no difference in mortality was found. Our study revealed that there is still a role for antimicrobial stewardship to further improve antibiotic use in patients admitted for viral RTIs in a country with relatively low antibiotic consumption.

Effects of non-compulsory and mandatory COVID-19 interventions on travel distance and time away from home, Norway, 2021.

BackgroundGiven the societal, economic and health costs of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), it is important to assess their effects. Human mobility serves as a surrogate measure for human contacts and compliance with NPI. In Nordic countries, NPI have mostly been advised and sometimes made mandatory. It is unclear if making NPI mandatory further reduced mobility.AimWe investigated the effect of non-compulsory and follow-up mandatory measures in major cities and rural regions on human mobility in Norway. We identified NPI categories that most affected mobility.MethodsWe used mobile phone mobility data from the largest Norwegian operator. We analysed non-compulsory and mandatory measures with before-after and synthetic difference-in-differences approaches. By regression, we investigated the impact of different NPI on mobility.ResultsNationally and in less populated regions, time travelled, but not distance, decreased after follow-up mandatory measures. In urban areas, however, distance decreased after follow-up mandates, and the reduction exceeded the decrease after initial non-compulsory measures. Stricter metre rules, gyms reopening, and restaurants and shops reopening were significantly associated with changes in mobility.ConclusionOverall, distance travelled from home decreased after non-compulsory measures, and in urban areas, distance further decreased after follow-up mandates. Time travelled reduced more after mandates than after non-compulsory measures for all regions and interventions. Stricter distancing and reopening of gyms, restaurants and shops were associated with changes in mobility.

A real-time regional model for COVID-19: Probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting.

The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging nations with devastating health and economic consequences. The spread of the disease has revealed major geographical heterogeneity because of regionally varying individual behaviour and mobility patterns, unequal meteorological conditions, diverse viral variants, and locally implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination roll-out. To support national and regional authorities in surveilling and controlling the pandemic in real-time as it unfolds, we here develop a new regional mathematical and statistical model. The model, which has been in use in Norway during the first two years of the pandemic, is informed by real-time mobility estimates from mobile phone data and laboratory-confirmed case and hospitalisation incidence. To estimate regional and time-varying transmissibility, case detection probabilities, and missed imported cases, we developed a novel sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation method allowing inference in useful time, despite the high parametric dimension. We test our approach on Norway and find that three-week-ahead predictions are precise and well-calibrated, enabling policy-relevant situational awareness at a local scale. By comparing the reproduction numbers before and after lockdowns, we identify spatially heterogeneous patterns in their effect on the transmissibility, with a stronger effect in the most populated regions compared to the national reduction estimated to be 85% (95% CI 78%-89%). Our approach is the first regional changepoint stochastic metapopulation model capable of real time spatially refined surveillance and forecasting during emergencies.

Increased household transmission and immune escape of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron compared to Delta variants.

Understanding the epidemic growth of the novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is critical for public health. We compared the ten-day secondary attack rate (SAR) of the Omicron and Delta variants in households using Norwegian contact tracing data, December 2021 - January 2022. Omicron SAR was higher than Delta, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.41 (95% CI 1.27-1.56). We observed increased susceptibility to Omicron infection in household contacts compared to Delta, independent of contacts' vaccination status. Among three-dose vaccinated contacts, the mean SAR was lower for both variants. We found increased Omicron transmissibility from primary cases to contacts in all vaccination groups, except 1-dose vaccinated, compared to Delta. Omicron SAR of three-dose vaccinated primary cases was high, 46% vs 11 % for Delta. In conclusion, three-dose vaccinated primary cases with Omicron infection can efficiently spread in households, while three-dose vaccinated contacts have a lower risk of being infected by Delta and Omicron.

Clinical Outcome of Viral Respiratory Tract Infections in Hospitalized Adults in Norway: High Degree of Inflammation and Need of Emergency Care for Cases With Respiratory Syncytial Virus.

Background: The clinical features and outcomes of viral respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in adults have not been thoroughly studied, especially the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease burden. It has become apparent that outbreaks of RSV in the elderly are associated with increased hospitalization rates. However, little data exists on the severity of such viral RTIs in adults, particularly the need for hospitalization, respiratory support and intensive care. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational single-center study at Østfold Hospital Trust, Norway, during three winter seasons 2015-2018. Patients ≥18 years with either influenza A, influenza B, RSV A/B, human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus 1-4 or adenovirus detected in respiratory specimens were included, if they were hospitalized 14 days prior or following the detection date, with signs of RTI. Hospital records on treatment and outcome were investigated, as well as mortality of all causes up to 30 days from discharge. Results: Of the 1222 infection events that were included, influenza A was the most frequent virus detected (39%), while 179 infection events (14.6%) were due to RSV. Influenza B counted for 24% of the infection events, human metapneumovirus 13%, parainfluenza virus 9% and adenovirus 1%. Patients admitted with RSV more often suffered from COPD and congestive heart failure than patients with influenza A. In addition, RSV patients were overrepresented in the urgent response NEWS score (National Early Warning Score) category ≥5. RSV patients also showed signs of more severe inflammation, with WBC ≥11.1 × 109/L and CRP >100 mg/L, and they were more often treated with antibiotic agents during their hospital stay. However, we found no differences in the need for ICU admission or mortality. Conclusion: Patients with RSV had more often high values for markers of inflammation and elevated NEWS score when compared to patients hospitalized with other common respiratory viruses. Taken into account that they suffered more frequently from comorbidities like COPD, these patients needed hospitalization more urgently. These findings highlight the need for further investigations on RSV disease in adults and the elderly.

A compelling demonstration of why traditional statistical regression models cannot be used to identify risk factors from case data on infectious diseases: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Regression models are often used to explain the relative risk of infectious diseases among groups. For example, overrepresentation of immigrants among COVID-19 cases has been found in multiple countries. Several studies apply regression models to investigate whether different risk factors can explain this overrepresentation among immigrants without considering dependence between the cases. METHODS: We study the appropriateness of traditional statistical regression methods for identifying risk factors for infectious diseases, by a simulation study. We model infectious disease spread by a simple, population-structured version of an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered)-model, which is one of the most famous and well-established models for infectious disease spread. The population is thus divided into different sub-groups. We vary the contact structure between the sub-groups of the population. We analyse the relation between individual-level risk of infection and group-level relative risk. We analyse whether Poisson regression estimators can capture the true, underlying parameters of transmission. We assess both the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of the estimated regression coefficients. RESULTS: We illustrate that there is no clear relationship between differences in individual characteristics and group-level overrepresentation -small differences on the individual level can result in arbitrarily high overrepresentation. We demonstrate that individual risk of infection cannot be properly defined without simultaneous specification of the infection level of the population. We argue that the estimated regression coefficients are not interpretable and show that it is not possible to adjust for other variables by standard regression methods. Finally, we illustrate that regression models can result in the significance of variables unrelated to infection risk in the constructed simulation example (e.g. ethnicity), particularly when a large proportion of contacts is within the same group. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional regression models which are valid for modelling risk between groups for non-communicable diseases are not valid for infectious diseases. By applying such methods to identify risk factors of infectious diseases, one risks ending up with wrong conclusions. Output from such analyses should therefore be treated with great caution.

Visiting crowded places during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel study among adult Norwegians.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including promotion of social distancing, have been applied extensively in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding cognitive and psychological factors regulating precautionary behavior is important for future management. The present study examines the importance of selected factors as predictors of having visited or intended to visit crowded places. Six online questionnaire-based waves of data collection were conducted in April-October 2020 in a Norwegian panel (≥18 years). Sample size at Wave 1 was 1,400. In the present study, "Visited or intended to visit crowded places" for different types of locations were the dependent variables. Predictors included the following categories of items: Perceived response effectiveness, Self-efficacy, Vulnerability, Facilitating factors and Barriers. Data were analyzed with frequency and percentage distributions, descriptives, correlations, principal components analysis, negative binomial-, binary logistic-, and multiple linear regression, and cross-lagged panel models. Analyses of dimensionality revealed that a distinction had to be made between Grocery stores, a location visited by most, and locations visited by few (e.g., "Pub," "Restaurants," "Sports event"). We merged the latter set of variables into a countscore denoted as "Crowded places." On the predictor side, 25 items were reduced to eight meanscores. Analyses of data from Wave 1 revealed a rather strong prediction of "Crowded places" and weaker associations with "Supermarket or other store for food." Across waves, in multiple negative binomial regression models, three meanscore predictors turned out to be consistently associated with "Crowded places." These include "Response effectiveness of individual action," "Self-efficacy with regard to avoiding people," and "Barriers." In a prospective cross-lagged model, a combined Response effectiveness and Self-efficacy score (Cognition) predicted behavior ("Visited or intended to visit crowded places") prospectively and vice versa. The results of this study suggest some potential to reduce people's visits to crowded locations during the pandemic through health education and behavior change approaches that focus on strengthening individuals' perceived response effectiveness and self-efficacy.

Influenza hospitalizations during childhood in children born preterm.

OBJECTIVE: The objective is to determine if children born preterm were at increased risk of influenza hospitalization up to age five. METHODS: National registry data on all children born in Norway between 2008 and 2011 were used in Cox regression models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for influenza hospitalizations up to age five in children born preterm (<37 pregnancy weeks). HRs were also estimated separately for very preterm (<32 weeks), early term (37-38 weeks), and post-term (≥42 weeks) children. RESULTS: Among 238,628 children born in Norway from January 2008 to December 2011, 15,086 (6.3%) were born preterm. There were 754 (0.3%) children hospitalized with influenza before age five. The rate of hospitalizations in children born preterm was 13.8 per 10,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] [11.3, 16.7]), and 5.9 per 10,000 person-years (95% CI [5.5, 6.4]) in children born at term (≥37 weeks). Children born preterm had a higher risk of influenza hospitalization before age 5: aHR 2.33 (95% CI [1.85, 2.93]). The risk increased with decreasing gestational age and was highest among those born extremely/very preterm; aHR 4.07 (95% CI [2.63, 6.31]). Compared with children born at 40-41 weeks, children born early term also had an elevated risk of influenza hospitalization; aHR (37 weeks) 1.89 (95% CI [1.43, 2.50]), aHR (38 weeks) 1.43 (95% CI [1.15, 1.78]). CONCLUSION: Children born preterm had a higher risk of influenza hospitalizations before age five. An elevated risk was also present among children born at an early term. Children born preterm could benefit from influenza vaccinations.

Increased transmissibility of the alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant: evidence from contact tracing data in Oslo, January to February 2021.

BACKGROUND: Information about the contagiousness of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the alpha lineage, and how they spread in various locations is essential. Country-specific estimates are needed because local interventions influence transmissibility. METHODS: We analysed contact tracing data from Oslo municipality, reported from January through February 2021, when the alpha lineage became predominant in Norway and estimated the relative transmissibility of the alpha lineage with the use of Poisson regression. RESULTS: Within households, we found an increase in the secondary attack rate by 60% (95% CI 20-114%) among cases infected with the alpha lineage compared to other variants; including all close contacts, the relative increase in the secondary attack rate was 24% (95% CI -6%-43%). There was a significantly higher risk of infecting household members in index cases aged 40-59 years who were infected with the alpha lineage; we found no association between transmission and household size. Overall, including all close contacts, we found that the reproduction number among cases with the alpha lineage was increased by 24% (95% CI 0%-52%), corresponding to an absolute increase of 0.19, compared to the group of index cases infected with other variants. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that households are the primary locations for rapid transmission of the new lineage alpha.

Etiology of viral respiratory tract infections in hospitalized adults, and evidence of the high frequency of prehospitalization antibiotic treatment in Norway.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) cause considerable morbidity and mortality in all age groups, but the epidemiology and role of several of the viral RTIs in the adult and elderly patients are still unclear, as is the extent of prehospitalization antibacterial drug use in this population. METHODS: We conducted a three-year (2015-2018) observational study of viral RTIs in hospitalized patients in a 500-bed hospital in Southeastern Norway, including all patients ≥18 years with RTI symptoms where one of the following viral agents was detected in a respiratory specimen (Seegene Allplex): Influenza A/B, RSV A/B, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), adenovirus and parainfluenza virus 1-4. Viral findings, demographical data, and information on prehospital antibiotic prescriptions were recorded. RESULTS: In 1182 patients 1222 viral infection events occurred. The mean patient age was 69.6 years, and 53% were females. Influenza virus A/B (63%), RSV A/B (15%) and hMPV (13%) were the most common agents detected. The proportional burden of influenza A H1 was found to be relatively high (65%) in the age groups <69 years, compared to older patients (P = .001, chi-square).As many as 20% of the patients had been treated with antibiotics prior to admission, with the lowest rate for influenza A H3 group at 17% (P = .036, chi-square), and highest for the RSV group at 28% (P = .004, chi-square).Oseltamivir was prescribed prior to hospitalization in only 3 cases (0.2%). CONCLUSIONS: We found a high rate of prehospital antibiotic prescription in adults hospitalized with viral RTIs, warranting better stewardship programs to tackle the increasing antibiotic resistance problem.

Sudden emergence of a Neisseria gonorrhoeae clade with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, Norway.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (ST)-7827 emerged in a dramatic fashion in Norway in the period 2016-2018. Here, we aim to shed light on the provenance and expansion of this ST. ST-7827 was found to be polyphyletic, but the majority of members belonged to a monophyletic clade we termed PopPUNK cluster 7827 (PC-7827). In Norway, both PC-7827 and ST-7827 isolates were almost exclusively isolated from men. Phylogeographical analyses demonstrated an Asian origin of the genogroup, with multiple inferred exports to Europe and the USA. The genogroup was uniformly resistant to fluoroquinolones, and associated with reduced susceptibility to both azithromycin and the extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs) cefixime and ceftriaxone. From a genetic background including the penA allele 13.001, associated with reduced ESC susceptibility, we identified repeated events of acquisition of porB alleles associated with further reduction in ceftriaxone susceptibility. Transmission of the strain was significantly reduced in Norway in 2019, but our results indicate the existence of a recently established global reservoir. The worrisome drug-resistance profile and rapid emergence of PC-7827 calls for close monitoring of the situation.

Risk conditions in children hospitalized with influenza in Norway, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Norwegian children are more frequently hospitalized with influenza than adults. Little is known about the characteristics of these children. Our aim was to investigate the presence of pre-existing risk conditions and to determine the duration of influenza hospitalizations in children during two influenza seasons. METHODS: The Norwegian Patient Registry holds data on all hospitalized patients in Norway. We included all patients younger than 18 years hospitalized with a diagnosis of influenza during the influenza seasons 2017-18 and 2018-19. Pre-existing risk conditions for influenza were identified by ICD-10 diagnoses in the Norwegian Patient Registry. In addition, information on asthma diagnoses were also retrieved from the Norwegian Registry for Primary Health Care. To estimate the prevalence of risk conditions in the child population, we obtained diagnoses on all Norwegian children in a two-year period prior to each influenza season. We calculated age-specific rates for hospitalization and risk for being hospitalized with influenza in children with risk conditions. RESULTS: In total, 1013 children were hospitalized with influenza during the two influenza seasons. Children younger than 6 months had the highest rate of hospitalization, accounting for 13.5% of all admissions (137 children). Hospitalization rates decreased with increasing age. Among children hospitalized with influenza, 25% had one or more pre-existing risk conditions for severe influenza, compared to 5% in the general population under 18 years. Having one or more risk conditions significantly increased the risk of hospitalization, (Odds Ratio (OR) 6.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.0-7.4 in the 2017-18 season, and OR 6.8, 95% CI 5.4-8.4 in the 2018-19 season). Immunocompromised children and children with epilepsy had the highest risk of hospitalization with influenza, followed by children with heart disease and lung disease. The average length of stay in hospital were 4.6 days, and this did not differ with age. CONCLUSION: Children with pre-existing risk conditions for influenza had a higher risk of hospitalization for influenza. However, most children (75%) admitted to hospital with influenza in Norway during 2017-2019 did not have pre-existing risk conditions. Influenza vaccination should be promoted in particular for children with risk conditions and pregnant women to protect new-borns.

Time-aggregated mobile phone mobility data are sufficient for modelling influenza spread: the case of Bangladesh.

Human mobility plays a major role in the spatial dissemination of infectious diseases. We develop a spatio-temporal stochastic model for influenza-like disease spread based on estimates of human mobility. The model is informed by mobile phone mobility data collected in Bangladesh. We compare predictions of models informed by daily mobility data (reference) with that of models informed by time-averaged mobility data, and mobility model approximations. We find that the gravity model overestimates the spatial synchrony, while the radiation model underestimates the spatial synchrony. Using time-averaged mobility resulted in spatial spreading patterns comparable to the daily mobility model. We fit the model to 2014-2017 influenza data from sentinel hospitals in Bangladesh, using a sequential version of approximate Bayesian computation. We find a good agreement between our estimated model and the case data. We estimate transmissibility and regional spread of influenza in Bangladesh, which are useful for policy planning. Time-averaged mobility appears to be a good proxy for human mobility when modelling infectious diseases. This motivates a more general use of the time-averaged mobility, with important implications for future studies and outbreak control. Moreover, time-averaged mobility is subject to less privacy concerns than daily mobility, containing less temporal information on individual movements.

Evaluating costs and health consequences of sick leave strategies against pandemic and seasonal influenza in Norway using a dynamic model.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify population-level health and economic consequences of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms. INTERVENTIONS: Compared with current sick leave practice (baseline), we evaluated the health and cost consequences of: (1) increasing the proportion of workers on sick leave from 65% (baseline) to 80% or 90%; (2) shortening the maximum duration from symptom onset to sick leave from 4 days (baseline) to 2 days, 1.5 days, 1 day and 0.5 days; and (3) combinations of 1 and 2. METHODS: A dynamic compartmental influenza model was developed using Norwegian population data and survey data on employee sick leave practices. The sick leave interventions were simulated under 12 different seasonal epidemic and 36 different pandemic influenza scenarios. These scenarios varied in terms of transmissibility, the proportion of symptomatic cases and illness severity (risk of primary care consultations, hospitalisations and deaths). Using probabilistic sensitivity analyses, a net health benefit approach was adopted to assess the cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a societal perspective. RESULTS: Compared with current sick leave practice, sick leave interventions were cost-effective for 31 (65%) of the pandemic scenarios, and 11 (92%) of the seasonal scenarios. Economic benefits from sick leave interventions were greatest for scenarios with low transmissibility, high symptomatic proportions and high illness severity. Overall, the health and economic benefits were greatest for the intervention involving 90% of sick workers taking sick leave within one-half day of symptoms. Depending on the influenza scenario, this intervention resulted in a 44.4%-99.7% reduction in the attack rate. Interventions involving sick leave onset beginning 2 days or later, after the onset of symptoms, resulted in economic losses. CONCLUSIONS: Prompt sick leave onset and a high proportion of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms may be cost-effective, particularly during influenza epidemics and pandemics with low transmissibility or high morbidity.

The peer effect on pain tolerance.

Background and aims Twin studies have found that approximately half of the variance in pain tolerance can be explained by genetic factors, while shared family environment has a negligible effect. Hence, a large proportion of the variance in pain tolerance is explained by the (non-shared) unique environment. The social environment beyond the family is a potential candidate for explaining some of the variance in pain tolerance. Numerous individual traits have previously shown to be associated with friendship ties. In this study, we investigate whether pain tolerance is associated with friendship ties. Methods We study the friendship effect on pain tolerance by considering data from the Tromsø Study: Fit Futures I, which contains pain tolerance measurements and social network information for adolescents attending first year of upper secondary school in the Tromsø area in Northern Norway. Pain tolerance was measured with the cold-pressor test (primary outcome), contact heat and pressure algometry. We analyse the data by using statistical methods from social network analysis. Specifically, we compute pairwise correlations in pain tolerance among friends. We also fit network autocorrelation models to the data, where the pain tolerance of an individual is explained by (among other factors) the average pain tolerance of the individual's friends. Results We find a significant and positive relationship between the pain tolerance of an individual and the pain tolerance of their friends. The estimated effect is that for every 1 s increase in friends' average cold-pressor tolerance time, the expected cold-pressor pain tolerance of the individual increases by 0.21 s (p-value: 0.0049, sample size n=997). This estimated effect is controlled for sex. The friendship effect remains significant when controlling for potential confounders such as lifestyle factors and test sequence among the students. Further investigating the role of sex on this friendship effect, we only find a significant peer effect of male friends on males, while there is no significant effect of friends' average pain tolerance on females in stratified analyses. Similar, but somewhat lower estimates were obtained for the other pain modalities. Conclusions We find a positive and significant peer effect in pain tolerance. Hence, there is a significant tendency for students to be friends with others with similar pain tolerance. Sex-stratified analyses show that the only significant effect is the effect of male friends on males. Implications Two different processes can explain the friendship effect in pain tolerance, selection and social transmission. Individuals might select friends directly due to similarity in pain tolerance, or indirectly through similarity in other confounding variables that affect pain tolerance. Alternatively, there is an influence effect among friends either directly in pain tolerance, or indirectly through other variables that affect pain tolerance. If there is indeed a social influence effect in pain tolerance, then the social environment can account for some of the unique environmental variance in pain tolerance. If so, it is possible to therapeutically affect pain tolerance through alteration of the social environment.

Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973-2030.

BACKGROUND: Lack of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence data in (Norwegian) high-risk groups impedes the ability to make informed decisions on prevention measures. Thus we rely on modelling to estimate the incidence and burden of HCV infections. METHODS: We constructed a compartmental model for HCV infections in Norway among active and former people who inject drugs (PWIDs). We based yearly transition rates on literature. The model was fitted to absolute numbers of hepatitis C associated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from national data sources (2000-2013). We estimated the number (95%CI) of HCV infections, cirrhosis, HCC and death and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) due to HCV infections in Norway, 1973-2030. We assumed treatment rates in the projected period were similar to those in 2013. RESULTS: The estimated proportion of chronic HCV (including those with cirrhosis and HCC) among PWIDs was stable from 2000 (49%; 4441/9108) to 2013 (43%; 3667/8587). We estimated that the incidence of HCV among PWIDs was 381 new infections in 2015. The estimated number of people with cirrhosis, HCC, and liver transplant was predicted to increase until 2022 (1537 people). DALYs among active PWIDs estimated to peak in 2006 (3480 DALYs) and decrease to 1870 DALYs in 2030. Chronic HCV infection contributes most to the total burden of HCV infection, and peaks at 1917 DALYs (52%) in 2007. The burden of HCV related to PWID increased until 2006 with 81/100,000 DALYs inhabitants and decreased to 68/100,000 DALYs in 2015. CONCLUSION: The burden of HCV associated with injecting drug use is considerable, with chronic HCV infection contributing most to the total burden. This model can be used to estimate the impact of different interventions on the HCV burden in Norway and to perform cost-benefit analyses of various public health measures.

Re-evaluation of the cost-effectiveness and effects of childhood rotavirus vaccination in Norway.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccination was included into the Norwegian childhood immunisation programme in 2014. Before implementation, rotavirus vaccination was found to be cost-effective from a societal perspective, but not from a healthcare perspective. Since introduction, new data on the incidence and economic effects of rotavirus disease have become available. We assessed early epidemiological effects of the rotavirus vaccination programme and re-evaluated its cost-effectiveness in Norway for the years 2015-2019. METHODS: Using a dynamic transmission model, we compared the epidemiological effects of the ongoing two-dose vaccination programme with Rotarix®, and a hypothetical 3-dose programme with RotaTeq® with no vaccination. A baseline cost of € 54 per fully vaccinated child was used. Cost-effectiveness was computed from a healthcare and societal perspective, using a decision analytical model. Data on healthcare use and costs, productivity losses and health utilities were based on published and own estimates. Uncertainty was accounted for in one-way, multi-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: During 2015-2019, 114,658 home care cases, 34,571 primary care cases, 7,381 severe cases, and 2 deaths associated with rotavirus disease were avoided due to vaccination. Under baseline assumptions vaccination was cost-effective from a healthcare perspective with a cost per QALY of € 47,447 for Rotarix® and € 52,709 for RotaTeq®. The break-even price was € 70 for Rotarix® and € 67 for RotaTeq®. Vaccination was cost-saving from the societal perspective, and also from a healthcare perspective for vaccine prices below € 25 and € 22 per vaccinated child for Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, respectively. CONCLUSION: Ongoing childhood rotavirus vaccination in Norway has reduced the rotavirus disease burden substantially, and is cost-effective compared with no vaccination.

MRSA infections in Norway: A study of the temporal evolution, 2006-2015.

BACKGROUND: Norway has one of the lowest prevalences of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections in the world. This study exploits the extensive data on MRSA infections in the Norwegian surveillance system to investigate the important factors defining the MRSA epidemiology. METHODS: We performed a quasi-Poisson regression of the monthly notification rate (NR) of MRSA infections reported from January 2006 to December 2015, comparing the time trend among people with an immigrant vs. Norwegian background and domestic vs. imported infections, stratified by age groups. FINDINGS: A total of 5289 MRSA infections were reported during the study period, of which 2255 (42·6%) were acquired in Norway, 1370 (25·9%) abroad, and 1664 (31·5%) with an unknown place of acquisition. Overall, the monthly NR increased significantly from 2006 to 2015 (+0·8% each month). The monthly increase in immigrants (+1·3%) was steeper than that in people with a Norwegian background (+0·6%). There was a significant growth (+0·4%) in the rate of domestically acquired infections, however, the NR of infections acquired abroad increased faster (+0·8%). For both imported and domestic infections, the increase occurred in persons aged < 70 years. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis suggests that immigration and importation, especially among persons aged < 40 years, represent important factors for the increasing notification rate of MRSA infections in Norway.