Effect of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Pneumonia Incidence Rates among Children 2-59 Months of Age, Mongolia, 2015-2021.

Starting in June 2016, the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was introduced into the routine immunization program of Mongolia by using a 2+1 dosing schedule, phased by district. We used prospective hospital surveillance to evaluate the vaccine's effect on pneumonia incidence rates among children 2-59 months of age over a 6-year period. Of 17,607 children with pneumonia, overall adjusted incidence rate ratios showed decreased primary endpoint pneumonia, very severe pneumonia, and probable pneumococcal pneumonia until June 2021. Results excluding and including the COVID-19 pandemic period were similar. Pneumonia declined in 3 districts that introduced PCV13 with catch-up campaigns but not in the 1 district that did not. After PCV13 introduction, vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage prevalence decreased by 44% and nonvaccine-type carriage increased by 49%. After PCV13 introduction in Mongolia, the incidence of more specific pneumonia endpoints declined in children 2-59 months of age; additional benefits were conferred by catch-up campaigns.

Impact of childhood 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on adult pneumonia hospitalisations in Mongolia: a time series analysis.

Background: Few studies have assessed the potential indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs on the adult pneumonia burden in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of childhood PCV13 immunisation on adult all-cause pneumonia following a phased program introduction from 2016. Methods: We conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in pneumonia hospitalisation incidence at four district hospitals in Mongolia. Adults (≥18 years) that met the clinical case definition for all-cause pneumonia were enrolled. A negative binomial mixed-effects model was used to assess the impact of PCV13 introduction on monthly counts of pneumonia admissions from January 2015-February 2022. We also performed a restricted analysis excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. All models were stratified by age and assessed separately. Additional analyses assessed the robustness of our findings. Findings: The average annual incidence of all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation was highest in adults 65+ years (62.81 per 10,000 population) and declined with decreasing age. After adjusting for the COVID-19 pandemic period, we found that rates of pneumonia hospitalisation remained largely unchanged over time. We did not observe a reduction in pneumonia hospitalisation in any age group. Results from restricted and sensitivity analyses were comparable to the primary results, finding limited evidence of a reduced pneumonia burden. Interpretation: We did not find evidence of indirect protection against all-cause pneumonia in adults following childhood PCV13 introduction. Direct pneumococcal vaccination and other interventions should be considered to reduce burden of pneumonia among older adults. Funding: Pfizer clinical research collaboration agreement (contract number: WI236621).

Effect of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on pneumonia hospital admissions in Fiji: a time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In October, 2012, Fiji introduced routine infant immunisation with a ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) using three primary doses and no booster dose (3 + 0 schedule). Data are scarce for the effect of PCV in the Asia and Pacific region. We aimed to evaluate the effect of PCV10 on pneumonia hospital admissions in children younger than 5 years and adults aged 55 years and older in Fiji, 5 years after vaccine introduction. METHODS: We did a time-series analysis assessing changes in pneumonia hospital admissions at three public tertiary hospitals in Fiji. Four pneumonia outcomes were evaluated: all-cause pneumonia, severe or very severe pneumonia, hypoxic pneumonia, and radiological pneumonia. Participants aged younger than 2 months, 2-23 months, 24-59 months, and 55 years and older were included. Data were extracted from the national hospital admission database according to International Classification of Diseases-tenth revision codes J10·0-18·9, J21, and J22 for all-cause pneumonia. Medical records and chest radiographs were reviewed for the main tertiary hospital to reclassify hospital admissions in children aged younger than 2 years as severe or very severe, hypoxic, or radiological pneumonia as per WHO definitions. Time-series analyses were done using the synthetic control method and multiple imputation to adjust for changes in hospital usage and missing data. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2017, the ratio of observed cases to expected cases for all-cause pneumonia was 0·92 (95% CI 0·70-1·36) for children aged younger than 2 months, 0·86 (0·74-1·00) for children aged 2-23 months, 0·74 (0·62-0·87) for children aged 24-59 months, and 1·90 (1·53-2·31) in adults aged 55 years and older, 5 years after PCV10 introduction. These findings indicate a reduction in all-cause pneumonia among children aged 24-59 months and an increase in adults aged 55 years and older, but no change among children aged younger than 2 months. Among children aged 2-23 months, we observed declines of 21% (95% CI 5-35) for severe or very severe pneumonia, 46% (33-56) for hypoxic pneumonia, and 25% (9-38) for radiological pneumonia. Mortality reduced by 39% (95% CI 5-62) for all-cause pneumonia, bronchiolitis, and asthma admissions in children aged 2-23 months. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of PCV10 was associated with a decrease in pneumonia hospital admissions in children aged 2-59 months. This is the first study in a middle-income country in the Asia and Pacific region to show the effect of PCV on pneumonia, filling gaps in the literature on the effects of PCV10 and 3 + 0 schedules. These data support decision making on PCV introduction for other low-income and middle-income countries in the region. FUNDING: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government.

Epidemiology of pneumonia in the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era in children 2-59 months of age, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases, including pneumonia, are the second largest cause of under-five mortality in Mongolia and the most common cause of childhood hospitalization. However information regarding the contribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae to pneumonia causation in Mongolia is limited. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of hospitalized children aged 2-59 months with pneumonia, enrolled into a surveillance program in the period prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, in Mongolia. METHODS: An expanded pneumonia surveillance program enrolled children, who met the surveillance case definition, at participating hospitals, between April 2015 and May 2016. Cumulative incidence rates were calculated by district for all pneumonia endpoints using district specific denominators from the Mongolian Health Department census for 2016. Socio-economic and disease-associated factors were compared between districts using chi-squared tests. RESULTS: A total of 4318 eligible children with pneumonia were enrolled over the 14 month period. Overall the incidence for all-cause pneumonia in children aged 12-59 months was 31.8 per 1000 population; children aged 2-11 months had an almost four-fold higher incidence than children aged 12-59 months. Differences were found between districts with regards to housing type, fuel used for cooking, hospital admission practices and the proportions of severe and primary endpoint pneumonia. DISCUSSION: This study shows a high burden of pneumonia in children aged 2-59 months in Mongolia prior to PCV introduction. Rates differed somewhat by district and age group and were influenced by a number of socio-economic factors. It will be important to consider these differences and risk factors when assessing the impact of PCV introduction.

Impact of the change in WHO's severe pneumonia case definition on hospitalized pneumonia epidemiology: case studies from six countries.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of the change in definition of severe pneumonia on documented pneumonia burden. METHODS: We reviewed existing data acquired during observational hospitalized pneumonia studies, before the introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in infants aged 2-23 months from Fiji, Gambia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malawi, Mongolia and Viet Nam. We used clinical data to calculate the percentage of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations with severe pneumonia, and with primary end-point consolidation, according to both the 2005 or 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) definitions. Where population data were available, we also calculated the incidence of severe pneumonia hospitalizations according to the different definitions. FINDINGS: At six of the seven sites, the percentages of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations due to severe pneumonia were significantly less (P < 0.001) according to the 2013 WHO definition compared with the 2005 definition. However, the percentage of severe pneumonia hospitalizations, according to the two definitions of severe pneumonia, with primary end-point consolidation varied little within each site. The annual incidences of severe pneumonia hospitalizations per 100 000 infants were significantly less (all P < 0.001) according to the 2013 definition compared with the 2005 definition, ranging from a difference of -301.0 (95% confidence interval, CI: -405.2 to -196.8) in Fiji to -3242.6 (95% CI: -3695.2 to -2789.9) in the Gambia. CONCLUSION: The revision of WHO's definition of severe pneumonia affects pneumonia epidemiology, and hence the interpretation of any pneumonia intervention impact evaluation.

Preliminary report from the World Health Organisation Chest Radiography in Epidemiological Studies project.

Childhood pneumonia is among the leading infectious causes of mortality in children younger than 5 years of age globally. Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is the leading infectious cause of childhood bacterial pneumonia. The diagnosis of childhood pneumonia remains a critical epidemiological task for monitoring vaccine and treatment program effectiveness. The chest radiograph remains the most readily available and common imaging modality to assess childhood pneumonia. In 1997, the World Health Organization Radiology Working Group was established to provide a consensus method for the standardized definition for the interpretation of pediatric frontal chest radiographs, for use in bacterial vaccine efficacy trials in children. The definition was not designed for use in individual patient clinical management because of its emphasis on specificity at the expense of sensitivity. These definitions and endpoint conclusions were published in 2001 and an analysis of observer variation for these conclusions using a reference library of chest radiographs was published in 2005. In response to the technical needs identified through subsequent meetings, the World Health Organization Chest Radiography in Epidemiological Studies (CRES) project was initiated and is designed to be a continuation of the World Health Organization Radiology Working Group. The aims of the World Health Organization CRES project are to clarify the definitions used in the World Health Organization defined standardized interpretation of pediatric chest radiographs in bacterial vaccine impact and pneumonia epidemiological studies, reinforce the focus on reproducible chest radiograph readings, provide training and support with World Health Organization defined standardized interpretation of chest radiographs and develop guidelines and tools for investigators and site staff to assist in obtaining high-quality chest radiographs.

Standardized Interpretation of Chest Radiographs in Cases of Pediatric Pneumonia From the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: Chest radiographs (CXRs) are a valuable diagnostic tool in epidemiologic studies of pneumonia. The World Health Organization (WHO) methodology for the interpretation of pediatric CXRs has not been evaluated beyond its intended application as an endpoint measure for bacterial vaccine trials. METHODS.: The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with WHO-defined severe and very severe pneumonia from 7 low- and middle-income countries. An interpretation process categorized each CXR into 1 of 5 conclusions: consolidation, other infiltrate, both consolidation and other infiltrate, normal, or uninterpretable. Two members of a 14-person reading panel, who had undertaken training and standardization in CXR interpretation, interpreted each CXR. Two members of an arbitration panel provided additional independent reviews of CXRs with discordant interpretations at the primary reading, blinded to previous reports. Further discordance was resolved with consensus discussion. RESULTS.: A total of 4172 CXRs were obtained from 4232 cases. Observed agreement for detecting consolidation (with or without other infiltrate) between primary readers was 78% (κ = 0.50) and between arbitrators was 84% (κ = 0.61); agreement for primary readers and arbitrators across 5 conclusion categories was 43.5% (κ = 0.25) and 48.5% (κ = 0.32), respectively. Disagreement was most frequent between conclusions of other infiltrate and normal for both the reading panel and the arbitration panel (32% and 30% of discordant CXRs, respectively). CONCLUSIONS.: Agreement was similar to that of previous evaluations using the WHO methodology for detecting consolidation, but poor for other infiltrates despite attempts at a rigorous standardization process.

Rates of radiologically confirmed pneumonia as defined by the World Health Organization in Northern Territory Indigenous children.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the burden of hospitalised, radiologically confirmed pneumonia (World Health Organization protocol) in Northern Territory Indigenous children. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Historical, observational study of all hospital admissions for any diagnosis of NT resident Indigenous children, aged between > or = 29 days and < 5 years, 1 April 1997 to 31 March 2005. INTERVENTION: All chest radiographs taken during these admissions, regardless of diagnosis, were assessed for pneumonia in accordance with the WHO protocol. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was endpoint consolidation (dense fluffy consolidation [alveolar infiltrate] of a portion of a lobe or the entire lung) present on a chest radiograph within 3 days of hospitalisation. RESULTS: We analysed data on 24,115 hospitalised episodes of care for 9492 children and 13,683 chest radiographs. The average annual cumulative incidence of endpoint consolidation was 26.6 per 1000 population per year (95% CI, 25.3-27.9); 57.5 per 1000 per year in infants aged 1-11 months, 38.3 per 1000 per year in those aged 12-23 months, and 13.3 per 1000 per year in those aged 24-59 months. In all age groups, rates of endpoint consolidation in children in the arid southern region of NT were about twice that of children in the tropical northern region. CONCLUSION: The rates of severe pneumonia in hospitalised NT Indigenous children are among the highest reported in the world. Reducing this unacceptable burden of disease should be a national health priority.

Efficacy of an 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against radiologically confirmed pneumonia among children less than 2 years of age in the Philippines: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcus is a leading cause of childhood pneumonia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) have demonstrated efficacy against childhood invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia in the United States and Africa. No information is available from Asia on the impact of PCV on childhood pneumonia. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial in Bohol, the Philippines (ISRCTN 62323832). Children 6 weeks to <6 months of age were randomly allocated to receive 3 doses of either an 11-valent PCV (11PCV, sanofi pasteur, Lyon, France) or a saline placebo, with a minimum interval of 4 weeks between doses to determine vaccine efficacy (VE) against the primary outcome of a child experiencing first episode of community-acquired radiologically defined pneumonia in the first 2 years of life. Secondary end points were clinical pneumonia, IPD, safety, and immunogenicity. RESULTS: Twelve thousand one hundred ninety-one children were enrolled. By per protocol (PP) analysis, 93 of 6013 fully vaccinated 11PCV recipient children had a first episode of radiologic pneumonia compared with 120 of 6018 placebo recipients. VE against radiologically defined pneumonia for the PP cohort of children 3 to 23 months old was 22.9% (95% CI: -1.1, 41.2; P = 0.06), for the prespecified subgroups of children 3 to 11 months of age, 34.0% (95% CI: 4.8, 54.3; P = 0.02), and of those 12 to 23 months old, 2.7% (95% CI: -43.5, 34.0; P = 0.88). By intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis, 119 of 6097 11PCV recipient children had an episode of radiologic pneumonia compared with 141 of 6094 placebo recipients. VE against radiologic pneumonia for the ITT cohort of children <2 years old was 16.0% (95% CI -7.3, 34.2; P = 0.16), for a subgroup of children <12 months of age, 19.8% (95% CI: -8.8, 40.8; P = 0.15). VE against clinical pneumonia by PP was not significant (VE 0.1%; 95% CI -9.4, 8.7; P = 0.99). IPD was rare: only 3 cases of IPD due to vaccine serotypes were observed during the study. 11PCV was immunogenic and well tolerated. Among 11PCV recipients, a small excess of serious adverse respiratory events was observed in the first 28 days after the first and second dose of vaccine, and of nonrespiratory events after the first dose. An excess of pneumonia episodes in 11PCV recipients in the month following the second dose of vaccination was the principal reason for lower VE by ITT analysis than by PP analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In PP analysis, a 22.9% reduction of community-acquired radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children younger than 2 years of age in the 11-valent tetanus-diphtheria toxoid-conjugated PCV vaccinated group was observed; a reduction similar as observed in other PCV trials. We could not demonstrate any VE against clinical pneumonia. Our finding confirms for the first time that in a low-income, low-mortality developing country in Asia, at least one-fifth of radiologically confirmed pneumonia is caused by pneumococcus, and thus preventable by PCV. Whether PCV should be included in national program in such settings, however, depends on careful country specific disease burden measurement and cost-effectiveness calculation.

Accuracy of ultrasonography for the diagnosis of intussusception in infants in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Intussusception (IS) is the most common cause of acute bowel obstruction in infants and young children. Ultrasonography is being increasingly used as the primary investigation for the diagnosis of IS and to guide air or hydrostatic enema reduction. However the accuracy of ultrasonography outside tertiary care settings in developed countries has not been assessed, particularly in Asia where the incidence of IS based on sonographic diagnosis has been reported as the highest in the world. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of ultrasonography in the diagnosis of acute IS in infants less than 2 years of age in a paediatric hospital in Vietnam. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective study was conducted at the National Hospital for Paediatrics, Hanoi, Vietnam, over a 14-month period recruiting patients <2 years of age with IS. Abdominal ultrasonography was performed on each patient and the accuracy of the diagnosis was evaluated against the final diagnosis provided by air enema and/or surgery. RESULTS: A total of 640 infants <2 years of age presented with clinical symptoms and signs of IS. The diagnosis was confirmed in 533 patients via air enema or surgery. Abdominal ultrasonography was 97.5% (466/478) sensitive and 99% (106/107) specific in the detection of IS. CONCLUSION: Ultrasonography is an accurate, safe and valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of IS. The use of ultrasonography as a primary investigation for patients with suspected IS prevents unnecessary radiological or surgical procedures being performed, and reduces radiation exposure while maintaining a high level of diagnostic accuracy. These results validate the use of ultrasonography for the diagnosis of IS in a developing country setting.

Risk factors for intussusception in infants in Vietnam and Australia: adenovirus implicated, but not rotavirus.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate risk factors for the development of intussusception in infants in a developing country with a suspected high incidence and in a developed country with a low incidence. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective case-control study of infants <2 years of age with idiopathic intussusception confirmed by air enema or surgery was conducted at the National Hospital of Paediatrics (NHP), Vietnam (n = 533) and the Royal Children's Hospital (RCH), Australia (n = 51). Diagnosis was validated in a subset (84% NHP; 67% RCH) by an independent blinded radiologist. Risk factor assessment was performed using a standardized questionnaire. Stool specimens were assayed for bacterial, viral, and parasitic agents. RESULTS: The incidence of intussusception in Vietnam was 302/100,000 in infants <1 year of age (95% CI: 258-352), substantially higher than in Australia (71/100,000). A strong association with adenovirus infection was observed at both sites (cases positive at NHP: 34%, OR 8.2; cases positive at RCH: 40%, OR 44). No association was identified between intussusception and rotavirus, other enteric pathogens, oral polio vaccine, feeding practices, or living conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of intussusception in infants was markedly higher in Vietnam than in Australia. A strong association between adenovirus infection and intussusception was identified at both sites suggesting that adenovirus may play a role in the etiology of intussusception.

Validation of clinical case definition of acute intussusception in infants in Viet Nam and Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To test the sensitivity and specificity of a clinical case definition of acute intussusception in infants to assist health-care workers in settings where diagnostic facilities are not available. METHODS: Prospective studies were conducted at a major paediatric hospital in Viet Nam (the National Hospital of Pediatrics, Hanoi) from November 2002 to December 2003 and in Australia (the Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne) from March 2002 to March 2004 using a clinical case definition of intussusception. Diagnosis of intussusception was confirmed by air enema or surgery and validated in a subset of participants by an independent clinician who was blinded to the participant's status. Sensitivity of the definition was evaluated in 584 infants aged<2 years with suspected intussusception (533 infants in Hanoi; 51 in Melbourne). Specificity was evaluated in 638 infants aged<2 years presenting with clinical features consistent with intussusception but for whom another diagnosis was established (234 infants in Hanoi; 404 in Melbourne). FINDINGS: In both locations the definition used was sensitive (96% sensitivity in Hanoi; 98% in Melbourne) and specific (95% specificity in Hanoi; 87% in Melbourne) for intussusception among infants with sufficient data to allow classification (449/533 in Hanoi; 50/51 in Melbourne). Reanalysis of patients with missing data suggests that modifying minor criteria would increase the applicability of the definition while maintaining good sensitivity (96-97%) and specificity (83-89%). CONCLUSION: The clinical case definition was sensitive and specific for the diagnosis of acute intussusception in infants in both a developing country and a developed country but minor modifications would enable it to be used more widely.

Standardized interpretation of paediatric chest radiographs for the diagnosis of pneumonia in epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Although radiological pneumonia is used as an outcome measure in epidemiological studies, there is considerable variability in the interpretation of chest radiographs. A standardized method for identifying radiological pneumonia would facilitate comparison of the results of vaccine trials and epidemiological studies of pneumonia. METHODS: A WHO working group developed definitions for radiological pneumonia. Inter-observer variability in categorizing a set of 222 chest radiographic images was measured by comparing the readings made by 20 radiologists and clinicians with a reference reading. Intra-observer variability was measured by comparing the initial readings of a randomly chosen subset of 100 radiographs with repeat readings made 8-30 days later. FINDINGS: Of the 222 images, 208 were considered interpretable. The reference reading categorized 43% of these images as showing alveolar consolidation or pleural effusion (primary end-point pneumonia); the proportion thus categorized by each of the 20 readers ranged from 8% to 61%. Using the reference reading as the gold standard, 14 of the 20 readers had sensitivity and specificity of > 0.70 in identifying primary end-point pneumonia; 13 out of 20 readers had a kappa index of > 0.6 compared with the reference reading. For the 92 radiographs deemed to be interpretable among the 100 images used for intra-observer variability, 19 out of 20 readers had a kappa index of > 0.6. CONCLUSION: Using standardized definitions and training, it is possible to achieve agreement in identifying radiological pneumonia, thus facilitating the comparison of results of epidemiological studies that use radiological pneumonia as an outcome.

Overview of observational studies of low-dose helical computed tomography screening for lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Lung cancer is a substantial public health problem in Western countries. Evidence from previous controlled trials of chest radiography and sputum cytology does not support lung cancer screening, but computed tomography (CT) screening has recently emerged as a more sensitive screening tool. For the present article, the available observational studies of low-dose helical CT screening for lung cancer were reviewed. METHODOLOGY: An evidence-based review of all published observational studies of low-dose helical CT screening for lung cancer, identified by an extensive search of Medline, was conducted. RESULTS: Eight observational studies of CT screening for lung cancer were identified. Relative to chest radiography, low-dose helical CT is a sensitive screening tool and can detect a high proportion of small lung cancers at an early and resectable stage. The yield of sputum cytology in addition to CT screening appears to be relatively low. To date, 5-year lung cancer survival of all individuals participating in baseline screening has not been reported for any of the studies. CONCLUSIONS: Although these preliminary studies are very promising, it remains to be proven that the early detection and treatment of lung cancer will lead to a reduction in mortality. This issue will be addressed by randomized controlled trials. In the interim, the long-term follow up of these observational studies could provide further insights.