Enhancing genomic prediction with Stacking Ensemble Learning in Arabica Coffee.

Coffee Breeding programs have traditionally relied on observing plant characteristics over years, a slow and costly process. Genomic selection (GS) offers a DNA-based alternative for faster selection of superior cultivars. Stacking Ensemble Learning (SEL) combines multiple models for potentially even more accurate selection. This study explores SEL potential in coffee breeding, aiming to improve prediction accuracy for important traits [yield (YL), total number of the fruits (NF), leaf miner infestation (LM), and cercosporiosis incidence (Cer)] in Coffea Arabica. We analyzed data from 195 individuals genotyped for 21,211 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. To comprehensively assess model performance, we employed a cross-validation (CV) scheme. Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Quantile Random Forest (QRF), and Random Forest (RF) served as base learners. For the meta-learner within the SEL framework, various options were explored, including Ridge Regression, RF, GBLUP, and Single Average. The SEL method was able to predict the predictive ability (PA) of important traits in Coffea Arabica. SEL presented higher PA compared with those obtained for all base learner methods. The gains in PA in relation to GBLUP were 87.44% (the ratio between the PA obtained from best Stacking model and the GBLUP), 37.83%, 199.82%, and 14.59% for YL, NF, LM and Cer, respectively. Overall, SEL presents a promising approach for GS. By combining predictions from multiple models, SEL can potentially enhance the PA of GS for complex traits.

Machine learning and statistics to qualify environments through multi-traits in Coffea arabica.

Several factors such as genotype, environment, and post-harvest processing can affect the responses of important traits in the coffee production chain. Determining the influence of these factors is of great relevance, as they can be indicators of the characteristics of the coffee produced. The most efficient models choice to be applied should take into account the variety of information and the particularities of each biological material. This study was developed to evaluate statistical and machine learning models that would better discriminate environments through multi-traits of coffee genotypes and identify the main agronomic and beverage quality traits responsible for the variation of the environments. For that, 31 morpho-agronomic and post-harvest traits were evaluated, from field experiments installed in three municipalities in the Matas de Minas region, in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two types of post-harvest processing were evaluated: natural and pulped. The apparent error rate was estimated for each method. The Multilayer Perceptron and Radial Basis Function networks were able to discriminate the coffee samples in multi-environment more efficiently than the other methods, identifying differences in multi-traits responses according to the production sites and type of post-harvest processing. The local factors did not present specific traits that favored the severity of diseases and differentiated vegetative vigor. Sensory traits acidity and fragrance/aroma score also made little contribution to the discrimination process, indicating that acidity and fragrance/aroma are characteristic of coffee produced and all coffee samples evaluated are of the special type in the Mata of Minas region. The main traits responsible for the differentiation of production sites are plant height, fruit size, and bean production. The sensory trait "Body" is the main one to discriminate the form of post-harvest processing.