Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation.

A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Sustainable watershed management: an international multi-watershed case study.

Global freshwater resources are being increasingly polluted and depleted, threatening sustainable development and human and ecosystem health. Utilizing case studies from 4 different watersheds in the United States, Japan, Switzerland, and Brazil, this paper identifies the most relevant sustainability deficits and derives general vectors for more sustainable water management. As a consequence of the demographic and economic developments experienced in the last few decades, each watershed has suffered declines in water quality, streamflow and biotic resources. However, the extent and the cultural perception of these water-related problems vary substantially in the different watersheds, leading to specific water-management strategies. In industrialized countries, exemplified by the US, Switzerland, and Japan, these strategies have primarily consisted of finance- and energy-intensive technologies, allowing these countries to meet water requirements while minimizing human health risks. But, from a sustainability point of view, such strategies, relying on limited natural resources, are not long-term solutions. For newly industrialized countries such as Brazil, expensive technologies for water management are often not economically feasible, thus limiting the extent to which newly industrialized and developing countries can utilize the expertise offered by the industrialized world. Sustainable water management has to be achieved by a common learning process involving industrialized, newly industrialized, and developing countries, following general sustainability guidelines as exemplified in this paper.