Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.

Brazil was one of the countries most affected during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical and statistical models were used in decision-making and public policies to mitigate and suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend to overview the modeling for COVID-19 in Brazil, focusing on the first 18 months of the pandemic. We conducted a scoping review and searched for studies on infectious disease modeling methods in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, and June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based COVID-19 modeling for Brazil. We included 81 studies, most corresponding to published articles produced in Brazilian institutions. The models were dynamic and deterministic in the majority. The predominant model type was compartmental, but other models were also found. The main modeling objectives were to analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions' effectiveness) and to project short and long-term predictions, while few articles performed economic impact analysis. Estimations of the R0 and transmission rates or projections regarding the course of the epidemic figured as major, especially at the beginning of the crisis. However, several other outputs were forecasted, such as the isolation/quarantine effect on transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, and the economic effects of the pandemic. This study reveals numerous articles with shared objectives and similar methods and data sources. We observed a deficiency in addressing social inequities in the Brazilian context within the utilized models, which may also be expected in several low- and middle-income countries with significant social disparities. We conclude that the models were of great relevance in the pandemic scenario of COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could be better planned and executed with improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction between modelers and epidemiologists, and establishment of a sustainable cooperation network.

Coping with complexity in the COVID pandemic: An exploratory study of intensive care units.

Although the COVID pandemic has challenged the resilience of health services in general, this impact has been most visible in intensive care units (ICUs). This paper presents an exploratory study of how ICUs in Brazil have coped with the complexity stemming from the pandemic. Five guidelines for coping with complexity were adopted as analytical framework. The guidelines were concerned with slack resources, diversity of perspectives, visibility, work-as-done, and unintended consequences. There were three main sources of data: (i) a survey with respondents from 33 ICUs, which indicated their agreement with 23 statements related to the use of the complexity guidelines; (ii) semistructured interviews with seven survey respondents and two public health officials; and (iii) 20 h of observations of the meetings of a municipal bed management committee. Seventy resilience practices were identified from these data sources. Most of these practices (n = 30) were related to the guideline on slack resources, which were commonly obtained from other hospital units. As for the survey data, the statement related to the availability of extra or standby human resources obtained the lowest score, reinforcing the key role of slack resources. Five lessons learned for coping with complexity in ICUs were drawn from our data; one lesson for each guideline. Furthermore, the survey questionnaire is a potential ICU assessment tool, which can be adapted to other health services.

Patterns of radioiodine use for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in Brazil: insights and a call for action from a 20-year database.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the patterns of radioactive iodine (RAI) use for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) in Brazil over the past 20 years. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the DTC-related RAI prescriptions, from 2000 to 2018, retrieved from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (Datasus) and National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) database was performed. RAI activities prescriptions were re-classified as low (30-50 mCi), intermediate (100 mCi), or high activities (>100 mCi). RESULTS: The number of DTC-related RAI prescriptions increased from 0.45 to 2.28/100,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2015, declining onwards, closing 2018 at 1.87/100,000. In 2018, population-adjusted RAI prescriptions by state ranged from 0.07 to 4.74/100,000 inhabitants. Regarding RAI activities, in the 2000 to 2008 period, the proportion of high-activities among all RAI prescriptions increased from 51.2% to 74.1%. From 2009 onwards, there was a progressive reduction in high-activity prescriptions in the country, closing 2018 at 50.1%. In 2018, the practice of requesting high-activities varied from 16% to 82% between Brazilian states. Interestingly, variability of RAI use do not seem to be related to RAI referral center volume nor state socio-economic indicators. CONCLUSION: In recent years, there has been a trend towards the lower prescription of RAI, and a reduction of high-activity RAI prescriptions for DTC in Brazil. Also, significative inter-state and inter-institutional variability on RAI use was documented. These results suggest that actions to advance DTC healthcare quality surveillance should be prioritized.

Infection-related microcephaly after the 2015 and 2016 Zika virus outbreaks in Brazil: a surveillance-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: On Nov 11, 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health declared a Public Health Emergency of National Concern in response to an increased number of microcephaly cases, possibly related to previous Zika virus outbreaks. We describe the course of the dual epidemics of the Zika virus infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in Brazil up to Nov 12, 2016, the first anniversary of this declaration. METHODS: We used secondary data for Zika virus and microcephaly cases obtained through the Brazilian Ministry of Health's surveillance systems from Jan 1, 2015, to Nov 12, 2016. We deemed possible Zika virus infections during pregnancy as all suspected cases of Zika virus disease and all initially suspected, but later discarded, cases of dengue and chikungunya fever. We defined confirmed infection-related microcephaly in liveborn infants as the presence of a head circumference of at least 2 SDs below the mean for their age and sex, accompanied by diagnostic imaging consistent with an infectious cause, or laboratory, clinical, or epidemiological results positive for Zika virus or STORCH (infectious agents known to cause congenital infection, mainly syphilis, toxoplasmosis, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex virus). We excluded cases of congenital anomalies or death without microcephaly. We analyse the spatial clustering of these diseases in Brazil to obtain the kernel density estimation. FINDINGS: Two distinct waves of possible Zika virus infection extended across all Brazilian regions in 2015 and 2016. 1 673 272 notified cases were reported, of which 41 473 (2·5%) were in pregnant women. During this period, 1950 cases of infection-related microcephaly were confirmed. Most cases (1373 [70·4%]) occurred in the northeast region after the first wave of Zika virus infection, with peak monthly occurrence estimated at 49·9 cases per 10 000 livebirths. After a major, well documented second wave of Zika virus infection in all regions of Brazil from September, 2015, to September, 2016, occurrence of microcephaly was much lower than that following the first wave of Zika virus infection, reaching epidemic levels in all but the south of Brazil, with estimated monthly peaks varying from 3·2 cases to 15 cases per 10 000 livebirths. INTERPRETATION: The distribution of infection-related microcephaly after Zika virus outbreaks has varied across time and Brazilian regions. Reasons for these apparent differences remain to be elucidated. FUNDING: None.

Association of Dyslipidemia and Glucose Abnormalities With Antiretroviral Treatment in a Cohort of HIV-Infected Latin American Children.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of lipid and glucose abnormalities and assess their association with exposure to antiretroviral (ARV) regimens among perinatally HIV-infected Latin American children. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: Data were analyzed from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative Pediatric Latin American Countries Epidemiologic Study. The incidence of dyslipidemia [total cholesterol >200 mg/dL, HDL < 35 mg/dL, LDL ≥ 130 mg/dL, triglycerides > 110 mg/dL (age < 10 years) or >150 mg/dL (≥10 years)] and fasting glucose abnormalities [homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance >2.5 (Tanner stage 1) or >4.0 (Tanner stage > 1); impaired glucose: 110 to <126 mg/dL; diabetes: ≥126 mg/dL] was estimated. Proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the risk of abnormalities associated with ARV regimen, adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: There were 385 children eligible for analysis (mean age 6.6 years). Incident cholesterol abnormalities were reported in 18.1% of participants [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.1% to 22.8%], HDL and LDL cholesterol abnormalities in 19.6% (15.1%-24.7%) and 15.0% (11.3%-19.5%), respectively, and triglyceride abnormalities in 44.2% (37.7%-50.8%). In multivariable analysis, ARV regimen was only associated with triglyceride abnormalities; participants receiving a protease inhibitor (PI)-containing regimen were 3.6 times as likely to experience a triglyceride abnormality as those receiving no ARVs (95% CI: 1.3 to 10.5; P = 0.0167). The cumulative incidence of insulin resistance was 3.8% (1.8%-7.1%); there were no incident cases of diabetes and only 2 of impaired fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Children receiving PI-containing regimens were at increased risk of developing triglyceride abnormalities. Continued monitoring of lipid levels in children receiving PI-containing regimens appears warranted.

Evaluation of respiratory syncytial virus group A and B genotypes among nosocomial and community-acquired pediatric infections in Southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the main cause of lower respiratory tract illness in children worldwide. Molecular analyses show two distinct RSV groups (A and B) that comprise different genotypes. This variability contributes to the capacity of RSV to cause yearly outbreaks. These RSV genotypes circulate within the community and within hospital wards. RSV is currently the leading cause of nosocomial respiratory tract infections in pediatric populations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the G protein gene diversity of RSV amplicons. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal aspirate samples were collected from children with nosocomial or community-acquired infections. Sixty-three RSV samples (21 nosocomial and 42 community-acquired) were evaluated and classified as RSV-A or RSV-B by real-time PCR. Sequencing of the second variable region of the G protein gene was performed to establish RSV phylogenetics. RESULTS: We observed co-circulation of RSV-A and RSV-B, with RSV-A as the predominant group. All nosocomial and community-acquired RSV-A samples were from the same phylogenetic group, comprising the NA1 genotype, and all RSV-B samples (nosocomial and community-acquired) were of the BA4 genotype. Therefore, in both RSV groups (nosocomial and community-acquired), the isolates belonged to only one genotype in circulation. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to describe circulation of the NA1 RSV genotype in Brazil. Furthermore, this study showed that the BA4 genotype remains in circulation. Deciphering worldwide RSV genetic variability will aid vaccine design and development.