Prediction model for lower limb amputation in hospitalized diabetic foot patients using classification and regression trees.

BACKGROUND: The decision to perform amputation of a limb in a patient with diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) is not an easy task. Prediction models aim to help the surgeon in decision making scenarios. Currently there are no prediction model to determine lower limb amputation during the first 30 days of hospitalization for patients with DFU. METHODS: Classification And Regression Tree analysis was applied on data from a retrospective cohort of patients hospitalized for the management of diabetic foot ulcer, using an existing database from two Orthopaedics and Traumatology departments. The secondary analysis identified independent variables that can predict lower limb amputation (mayor or minor) during the first 30 days of hospitalization. RESULTS: Of the 573 patients in the database, 290 feet underwent a lower limb amputation during the first 30 days of hospitalization. Six different models were developed using a loss matrix to evaluate the error of not detecting false negatives. The selected tree produced 13 terminal nodes and after the pruning process, only one division remained in the optimal tree (Sensitivity: 69%, Specificity: 75%, Area Under the Curve: 0.76, Complexity Parameter: 0.01, Error: 0.85). Among the studied variables, the Wagner classification with a cut-off grade of 3 exceeded others in its predicting capacity. CONCLUSIONS: Wagner classification was the variable with the best capacity for predicting amputation within 30 days. Infectious state and vascular occlusion described indirectly by this classification reflects the importance of taking quick decisions in those patients with a higher compromise of these two conditions. Finally, an external validation of the model is still required. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

ESMO-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale for haematological malignancies (ESMO-MCBS:H) version 1.0.

BACKGROUND: The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO)-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (MCBS) has been accepted as a robust tool to evaluate the magnitude of clinical benefit reported in trials for oncological therapies. However, the ESMO-MCBS hitherto has only been validated for solid tumours. With the rapid development of novel therapies for haematological malignancies, we aimed to develop an ESMO-MCBS version that is specifically designed and validated for haematological malignancies. METHODS: ESMO and the European Hematology Association (EHA) initiated a collaboration to develop a version for haematological malignancies (ESMO-MCBS:H). The process incorporated five landmarks: field testing of the ESMO-MCBS version 1.1 (v1.1) to identify shortcomings specific to haematological diseases, drafting of the ESMO-MCBS:H forms, peer review and revision of the draft based on re-scoring (resulting in a second draft), assessment of reasonableness of the scores generated, final review and approval by ESMO and EHA including executive boards. RESULTS: Based on the field testing results of 80 haematological trials and extensive review for feasibility and reasonableness, five amendments to ESMO-MCBS were incorporated in the ESMO-MCBS:H addressing the identified shortcomings. These concerned mainly clinical trial endpoints that differ in haematology versus solid oncology and the very indolent nature of nevertheless incurable diseases such as follicular lymphoma, which hampers presentation of mature data. In addition, general changes incorporated in the draft version of the ESMO-MCBS v2 were included, and specific forms for haematological malignancies generated. Here we present the final approved forms of the ESMO-MCBS:H, including instructions. CONCLUSION: The haematology-specific version ESMO-MCBS:H allows now full applicability of the scale for evaluating the magnitude of clinical benefit derived from clinical studies in haematological malignancies.

Off-label despite high-level evidence: a clinical practice review of commonly used off-patent cancer medicines.

INTRODUCTION: Off-label use of medicines is generally discouraged. However, several off-patent, low-cost cancer medicines remain off-label for indications in which they are commonly used in daily practice, supported by high-level evidence based on results of phase III clinical trials. This discrepancy may generate prescription and reimbursement obstacles as well as impaired access to established therapies. METHODS: A list of cancer medicines that remain off-label in specific indications despite the presence of high-level evidence was generated and subjected to European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) expert peer review to assess for accountability of reasonableness. These medicines were then surveyed on approval procedures and workflow impact. The most illustrative examples of these medicines were reviewed by experts from the European Medicines Agency to ascertain the apparent robustness of the supporting phase III trial evidence from a regulatory perspective. RESULTS: A total of 47 ESMO experts reviewed 17 cancer medicines commonly used off-label in six disease groups. Overall, high levels of agreement were recorded on the off-label status and the high quality of data supporting the efficacy in the off-label indications, often achieving high ESMO-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) scores. When prescribing these medicines, 51% of the reviewers had to implement a time-consuming process associated with additional workload, in the presence of litigation risks and patient anxiety. Finally, the informal regulatory expert review identified only 2 out of 18 (11%) studies with significant limitations that would be difficult to overcome in the context of a potential marketing authorisation application without additional studies. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the common use of off-patent essential cancer medicines in indications that remain off-label despite solid supporting data as well as generate evidence on the adverse impact on patient access and clinic workflows. In the current regulatory framework, incentives to promote the extension of indications of off-patent cancer medicines are needed for all stakeholders.

Defining vulnerability subgroups among pregnant women using pre-pregnancy information: a latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of vulnerability during or before pregnancy can contribute to optimizing the first 1000 days, a crucial period for children's development and health. We aimed to identify classes of vulnerability among pregnant women in the Netherlands using pre-pregnancy data on a wide range of social risk and protective factors, and validate these classes against the risk of adverse outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a latent class analysis based on 42 variables derived from nationwide observational data sources and self-reported data. Variables included individual, socioeconomic, lifestyle, psychosocial and household characteristics, self-reported health, healthcare utilization, life-events and living conditions. We compared classes in relation to adverse outcomes using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In the study population of 4172 women, we identified five latent classes. The largest 'healthy and socioeconomically stable'-class [n = 2040 (48.9%)] mostly shared protective factors, such as paid work and positively perceived health. The classes 'high care utilization' [n = 485 (11.6%)], 'socioeconomic vulnerability' [n = 395 (9.5%)] and 'psychosocial vulnerability' [n = 1005 (24.0%)] were characterized by risk factors limited to one specific domain and protective factors in others. Women classified into the 'multidimensional vulnerability'-class [n = 250 (6.0%)] shared multiple risk factors in different domains (psychosocial, medical and socioeconomic risk factors). Multidimensional vulnerability was associated with adverse outcomes, such as premature birth and caesarean section. CONCLUSIONS: Co-existence of multiple risk factors in various domains is associated with adverse outcomes for mother and child. Early detection of vulnerability and strategies to improve parental health and well-being might benefit from focussing on different domains and combining medical and social care and support.

Methodological and reporting standards for quality-of-life data eligible for European Society for Medical Oncology-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) credit.

BACKGROUND: The European Society for Medical Oncology-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) has been developed to grade clinical benefit of cancer therapies. Improvement in quality of life (QoL) is considered relevant, especially in the non-curative setting. This is reflected by an upgrade of the preliminary ESMO-MCBS score if QoL is improved compared to the control arm or a downgrade if an improvement in progression-free survival is not paralleled by an improvement in QoL or overall survival. Given the importance of QoL for the final score, a need to ensure the robustness of QoL data was recognised. DESIGN: A checklist was created based on existing guidelines for QoL research. Field testing was carried out using clinical trials that either received an adjustment of the preliminary ESMO-MCBS score based on QoL or had QoL as the primary endpoint. Several rounds of revision and re-testing of the checklist were undertaken until a final consensus was reached. RESULTS: The final checklist consists of four items and can be applied if three prerequisites are met: (i) QoL is at least a secondary endpoint, (ii) evidence of reliability and validity of the instrument is provided, and (iii) a statistically and clinically significant improvement in QoL is observed. The four items on the checklist pertain to the (i) hypothesis, (ii) compliance and missing data, (iii) presentation of the results, and (iv) statistical and clinical relevance. Field testing revealed that a clear QoL hypothesis and correction for multiple testing were mostly lacking, while the main statistical method was always described. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the ESMO-MCBS QoL checklist will facilitate objective and transparent decision making on QoL data within the ESMO-MCBS scoring process. Trials published until 1 January 2025 will have to meet the prerequisites and at least two items for crediting QoL benefit in the final ESMO-MCBS score. Trials published thereafter will have to meet all four items.

Will extended field-of-view PET/CT depopulate the graveyard of failed PET radiopharmaceuticals?

With the rapid emergence of extended Field-of-View PET-cameras several new applications for radiopharmaceuticals become within reach. Main reason is the significant increase of the sensitivity of the PET-camera so that much less radioactivity can be administered. Issues that that hampered development or use of PET-radiopharmaceuticals become realistic again. Molar activity requirements can become less strict. New low-yielding radiochemistry methods may become applicable. Carbon-11 labelled compounds can revive and potentially be shipped to nearby PET-facilities. PET-radiopharmaceuticals with slow kinetics in comparison to their half life can still be used. As additional infrastructure and equipment will likely remain unchanged and keep the same sensitivity therefore there will be issues with kinetic modelling requiring analysis of plasma or metabolites samples with lower count rate. Besides the potential revival of failed radiopharmaceuticals, novel challenges are ahead to develop novel radiochemistry based on thus far unsuitable (low yielding or time consuming) reactions.

Improving primary care antimicrobial stewardship by implementing a peer audit and feedback intervention in Cape Town community healthcare centres.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of antibiotic resistance is a major threat to public health. Primary care, where 80% of antibiotics are consumed, is a pivotal setting to direct antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) efforts. However, the ideal model to improve antibiotic prescribing in primary care in low-resource settings is not known. OBJECTIVE: To implement a multidisciplinary audit and feedback AMS intervention with the aim to improve appropriate antibiotic prescribing at primary care level. METHODS: The intervention was implemented and monitored in 10 primary care centres of the Cape Town metropole between July 2017 and June 2019. The primary and secondary outcome measures were monthly adherence to a bundle of antibiotic quality process measures and monthly antibiotic consumption, respectively. Multidisciplinary audit and feedback meetings were initiated and integrated into facility clinical meetings. Two Excel tools were utilised to automatically calculate facility audit scores and consumption. Once a month, 10 antibiotic prescriptions were randomly selected for a peer review audit by the team. The prescriptions were audited for adherence to a bundle of seven antibiotic process measures using the standard treatment guidelines (STG) and Essential Medicines List (EML) as standard. Concurrently, primary care pharmacists monitored monthly antibiotic consumption by calculating defined daily doses (DDDs) per 100 prescriptions dispensed. Adherence and consumption feedback were regularly provided to the facilities. Learning collaboratives involving representative multidisciplinary teams were held twice-yearly. Pre-, baseline and post-intervention periods were defined as 6 months before, first 6 months and last 6 months of the study, respectively. RESULTS: The mean overall adherence increased from 19% (baseline) to 47% (post intervention) (p<0.001). Of the 2 077 prescriptions analysed, 33.7% had an antibiotic prescribed inappropriately. No diagnosis had been captured in patient notes, and the antibiotic chosen was not according to the STG and EML in 30.1% and 31.7% of cases, respectively. Seasonal variation was observed in prescribing adherence, with significantly lower adherence in winter and spring months (adjusted odds ratio 0.60). A reduction of 12.9 DDDs between the pre- and post-intervention periods (p=0.0084) was documented, which represented a 19.3% decrease in antibiotic consumption. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated that peer reviewed audit and feedback is an effective AMS intervention to improve antibiotic prescribing in primary care in a low-resource setting. The intervention, utilising existing resources and involving multidisciplinary engagement, may be incorporated into existing quality improvement processes at facility level, to ensure sustainable change.

Bayesian global regression model relating product characteristics of intermediate moisture food products to heat inactivation parameters for Salmonella Napoli and Eurotium herbariorum mould spores.

Thermal inactivation of pathogenic and spoilage organisms in low and intermediate moisture foods is of critical importance for guaranteeing microbiological safety and stability of these products. Producers tendentially reduce salt in low and intermediate moisture foods because of nutritional health considerations, but it is unclear how this affects microbial inactivation rates during pasteurization. In this study we predict the time to achieve a pre-defined 6-log reduction for Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Napoli (hereafter: S. Napoli) and Eurotium herbariorum mould spores (hereafter: E. herbariorum spores) and the relationship with product characteristics. We tested 31 design products for heat inactivation of S. Napoli and 29 design products for heat inactivation of E. herbariorum spores. We used a global Bayesian regression combining primary Weibull models with a secondary regression model to relate pasteurization temperature and product characteristics (water activity (aw), pH, and fractions of sodium chloride, sucrose and oil on product) to microbial counts. With this model, we predict the time to 6-log reduction. Thermal inactivation rates were much higher for vegetative S. Napoli than for E. herbariorum spores. Also, inactivation curves were non-linear for many experiments. There were significant associations between the Weibull model parameters and temperature, and pH and aw for S. Napoli and E. herbariorum spores, respectively. We parameterized an inactivation model for S. Napoli and E. herbariorum spores using design products with a broad range of characteristics and showed how the simplified approach of using D-values does not accurately describe the non-linearity of thermal inactivation for both types of organism. Results of our model can be used to produce accurate heat inactivation predictions as input for the pasteurization process in factories where intermediate moisture foods are manufactured.

Concepts of health in different contexts: a scoping review.

The rationale of our study was that the World Health Organization's (WHO) definition of health from 1947 which includes "… complete physical, mental and social wellbeing…" does not fit the current societal viewpoints anymore. The WHO's definition of health implies that many people with chronic illnesses or disabilities would be considered unhealthy and complete wellbeing would be utopian and unfeasible for them. This is no longer uniformly accepted. Many alternative concepts of health have been discussed in the last decades such as 'positive health', which focusses on someone's capability rather than incapability,. However, the question remains whether a general health concept can guide all healthcare practices. More likely, health concepts need to be specified for professions or settings. The objective of our study was to create a structured overview of published concepts of health from different perspectives by conducting a scoping review using the PRISMA-ScR guideline. A literature search was conducted in Pubmed and Cinahl. Articles eligible for inclusion focussed on the discussion or the conceptualisation of health or health-related concepts in different contexts (such as the perspective of care workers' or patients') published since 2009 (the Dutch Health Council raised the discussion about moving towards a more dynamic perspective on health in that year). Seventy-five articles could be included for thematic analyses. The results showed that most articles described a concept of health consisting of multiple subthemes; no consensus was found on one overall concept of health. This implies that healthcare consumers act based on different health concepts when seeking care than care workers when providing care. Having different understandings of the concepts of health can lead to misunderstandings in practice. In conclusion, from every perspective, and even for every individual, health may mean something different. This finding stresses the importance that care workers' and healthcare consumers' meaning of 'health' has to be clear to all actors involved. Our review supports a more uniform tuning of healthcare between healthcare providers (the organisations), care workers (the professionals) and healthcare consumers (the patients), by creating more awareness of the differences among these actors, which can be a guide in their communication.

Prioritising systemic cancer therapies applying ESMO's tools and other resources to assist in improving cancer care globally: the Kazakh experience.

BACKGROUND: In Kazakhstan, cancer is the second leading cause of death with a major public health and economic burden. In the last decade, cancer care and cancer medicine costs have significantly increased. To improve the efficiency and efficacy of cancer care expenditure and planning, the Kazakhstan Ministry of Health requested assistance from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) to review its systemic cancer treatment protocols and essential medicines list and identify high-impact, effective regimens. MATERIALS AND METHODS: ESMO developed a four-phase approach to review Kazakhstan cancer treatment protocols: (i) perform a systematic analysis of the country's cancer medicines and treatment protocols; (ii) cross-reference the country's cancer protocols with the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines, the ESMO-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale and the European Medicines Agency's medicine availability and indications database; (iii) extract treatment recommendations from the ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines; (iv) expert review for all cancer medicines not on the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines and the country treatment protocols. RESULTS: This ESMO four-phase approach led to the update of the Kazakhstan national essential cancer medicines list and the list of cancer treatment protocols. This review has led to the withdrawal of several low-value or non-evidence-based medicines and a budget increase for cancer care to include all essential and highly effective medicines and treatment options. CONCLUSION: When applied effectively, this four-phase approach can improve access to medicines, efficiency of expenditure and sustainability of cancer systems. The WHO-ESMO collaboration illustrated how, by sharing best practices, tools and resources, we can address access to cancer medicines and positively impact patient care.

89Zr-pembrolizumab imaging as a non-invasive approach to assess clinical response to PD-1 blockade in cancer.

BACKGROUND: Programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) antibody treatment is standard of care for melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Accurately predicting which patients will benefit is currently not possible. Tumor uptake and biodistribution of the PD-1 antibody might play a role. Therefore, we carried out a positron emission tomography (PET) imaging study with zirconium-89 (89Zr)-labeled pembrolizumab before PD-1 antibody treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma or NSCLC received 37 MBq (1 mCi) 89Zr-pembrolizumab (∼2.5 mg antibody) intravenously plus 2.5 or 7.5 mg unlabeled pembrolizumab. After that, up to three PET scans were carried out on days 2, 4, and 7. Next, PD-1 antibody treatment was initiated. 89Zr-pembrolizumab tumor uptake was calculated as maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and expressed as geometric mean. Normal organ uptake was calculated as SUVmean and expressed as a mean. Tumor response was assessed according to (i)RECIST v1.1. RESULTS: Eighteen patients, 11 with melanoma and 7 with NSCLC, were included. The optimal dose was 5 mg pembrolizumab, and the optimal time point for PET scanning was day 7. The tumor SUVmax did not differ between melanoma and NSCLC (4.9 and 6.5, P = 0.49). Tumor 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake correlated with tumor response (P trend = 0.014) and progression-free (P = 0.0025) and overall survival (P = 0.026). 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake at 5 mg was highest in the spleen with a mean SUVmean of 5.8 (standard deviation ±1.8). There was also 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake in Waldeyer's ring, in normal lymph nodes, and at sites of inflammation. CONCLUSION: 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake in tumor lesions correlated with treatment response and patient survival. 89Zr-pembrolizumab also showed uptake in lymphoid tissues and at sites of inflammation.

How service modularity can provide the flexibility to support person-centered care and shared decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Today's healthcare provision is facing several challenges, that cause the level of complexity to increase at a greater rate than the managerial capacity to effectively deal with it. One of these challenges is the demand for person-centered care in an approach that is tuned towards shared decision-making. Flexibility is needed to adequately respond to individual needs. METHODS: We elaborate on the potential of service modularity as a foundation for person-centered care delivered in a shared decision-making context, and examine to what extent this can improve healthcare. We primarily focused on theory building. To support our effort and gain insight into how service modularity is currently discussed and applied in healthcare, we conducted a scoping review. RESULTS: Descriptions of actual implementations of modularity in healthcare are rare. Nevertheless, applying a modular perspective can be beneficial to healthcare service improvement since those service modularity principles that are still missing can often be fulfilled relatively easily to improve healthcare practice. Service modularity offers a way towards flexible configuration of services, facilitating the composition of tailored service packages. Moreover, it can help to provide insight into the possibilities of care for both healthcare professionals and patients. CONCLUSIONS: We argue that applying a modular frame to healthcare services can contribute to individualized, holistic care provision and can benefit person-centered care. Furthermore, insight into the possibilities of care can help patients express their preferences, increasing their ability to actively participate in a shared decision-making process. Nevertheless, it remains essential that the healthcare professional actively collaborates with the patient in composing the care package, for which we propose a model. Altogether, we posit this can improve healthcare practice, especially for the people receiving care.

Biases in study design, implementation, and data analysis that distort the appraisal of clinical benefit and ESMO-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) scoring.

BACKGROUND: The European Society for Medical Oncology-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) is a validated, widely used tool developed to score the clinical benefit from cancer medicines reported in clinical trials. ESMO-MCBS scores assume valid research methodologies and quality trial implementation. Studies incorporating flawed design, implementation, or data analysis may generate outcomes that exaggerate true benefit and are not generalisable. Failure to either indicate or penalise studies with bias undermines the intention and diminishes the integrity of ESMO-MCBS scores. This review aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the ESMO-MCBS to address bias generated by flawed design, implementation, or data analysis and identify shortcomings in need of amendment. METHODS: As part of a refinement of the ESMO-MCBS, we reviewed trial design, implementation, and data analysis issues that could bias the results. For each issue of concern, we reviewed the ESMO-MCBS v1.1 approach against standards derived from Helsinki guidelines for ethical human research and guidelines from the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use, the Food and Drugs Administration, the European Medicines Agency, and European Network for Health Technology Assessment. RESULTS: Six design, two implementation, and two data analysis and interpretation issues were evaluated and in three, the ESMO-MCBS provided adequate protections. Seven shortcomings in the ability of the ESMO-MCBS to identify and address bias were identified. These related to (i) evaluation of the control arm, (ii) crossover issues, (iii) criteria for non-inferiority, (iv) substandard post-progression treatment, (v) post hoc subgroup findings based on biomarkers, (vi) informative censoring, and (vii) publication bias against quality-of-life data. CONCLUSION: Interpretation of the ESMO-MCBS scores requires critical appraisal of trials to understand caveats in trial design, implementation, and data analysis that may have biased results and conclusions. These will be addressed in future iterations of the ESMO-MCBS.

Correction to: [89Zr]Zr-cetuximab PET/CT as biomarker for cetuximab monotherapy in patients with RAS wild-type advanced colorectal cancer.

Missing Electronic Supplementary Materials.