Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation: population based study of linked cycle data from 113 873 women.

OBJECTIVE:  To develop a prediction model to estimate the chances of a live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) based on a couple's specific characteristics and treatment information. DESIGN:  Population based cohort study. SETTING:  All licensed IVF clinics in the UK. National data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority register. PARTICIPANTS:  All 253 417 women who started IVF (including intracytoplasmic sperm injection) treatment in the UK from 1999 to 2008 using their own eggs and partner's sperm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:  Two clinical prediction models were developed to estimate the individualised cumulative chance of a first live birth over a maximum of six complete cycles of IVF-one model using information available before starting treatment and the other based on additional information collected during the first IVF attempt. A complete cycle is defined as all fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfers arising from one episode of ovarian stimulation. RESULTS:  After exclusions, 113 873 women with 184 269 complete cycles were included, of whom 33 154 (29.1%) had a live birth after their first complete cycle and 48 925 (43.0%) after six complete cycles. Key pretreatment predictors of live birth were the woman's age (31 v 37 years; adjusted odds ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 1.71) and duration of infertility (3 v 6 years; 1.09, 1.08 to 1.10). Post-treatment predictors included number of eggs collected (13 v 5 eggs; 1.29, 1.27 to 1.32), cryopreservation of embryos (1.91, 1.86 to 1.96), the woman's age (1.53, 1.49 to 1.58), and stage of embryos transferred (eg, double blastocyst v double cleavage; 1.79, 1.67 to 1.91). Pretreatment, a 30 year old woman with two years of unexplained primary infertility has a 46% chance of having a live birth from the first complete cycle of IVF and a 79% chance over three complete cycles. If she then has five eggs collected in her first complete cycle followed by a single cleavage stage embryo transfer (with no embryos left for freezing) her chances change to 28% and 56%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:  This study provides an individualised estimate of a couple's cumulative chances of having a baby over a complete package of IVF both before treatment and after the first fresh embryo transfer. This novel resource may help couples plan their treatment and prepare emotionally and financially for their IVF journey.

Realizing a desired family size: when should couples start?

STUDY QUESTION: Until what age can couples wait to start a family without compromising their chances of realizing the desired number of children? SUMMARY ANSWER: The latest female age at which a couple should start trying to become pregnant strongly depends on the importance attached to achieving a desired family size and on whether or not IVF is an acceptable option in case no natural pregnancy occurs. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: It is well established that the treatment-independent and treatment-dependent chances of pregnancy decline with female age. However, research on the effect of age has focused on the chance of a first pregnancy and not on realizing more than one child. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: An established computer simulation model of fertility, updated with recent IVF success rates, was used to simulate a cohort of 10 000 couples in order to assess the chances of realizing a one-, two- or three-child family, for different female ages at which the couple starts trying to conceive. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The model uses treatment-independent pregnancy chances and pregnancy chances after IVF/ICSI. In order to focus the discussion, we single out three levels of importance that couples could attach to realizing a desired family size: (i) Very important (equated with aiming for at least a 90% success chance). (ii) Important but not at all costs (equated with a 75% success chance) (iii) Good to have children, but a life without children is also fine (equated with a 50% success chance). MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In order to have a chance of at least 90% to realize a one-child family, couples should start trying to conceive when the female partner is 35 years of age or younger, in case IVF is an acceptable option. For two children, the latest starting age is 31 years, and for three children 28 years. Without IVF, couples should start no later than age 32 years for a one-child family, at 27 years for a two-child family, and at 23 years for three children. When couples accept 75% or lower chances of family completion, they can start 4-11 years later. The results appeared to be robust for plausible changes in model assumptions. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our conclusions would have been more persuasive if derived directly from large-scale prospective studies. An evidence-based simulation study (as we did) is the next best option. We recommend that the simulations should be updated every 5-10 years with new evidence because, owing to improvements in IVF technology, the assumptions on IVF success chances in particular run the risk of becoming outdated. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Information on the chance of family completion at different starting ages is important for prospective parents in planning their family, for preconception counselling, for inclusion in educational courses in human biology, and for increasing public awareness on human reproductive possibilities and limitations. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No external funding was either sought or obtained for this study. There are no conflicts of interest to be declared.

Too old to have children? Lessons from natural fertility populations.

STUDY QUESTION: Is it possible to construct an age curve denoting the ages above which women are biologically too old to reproduce? SUMMARY ANSWER: We constructed a curve based on the distribution of female age at last birth in natural fertility populations reflecting the ages above which women have become biologically too old to have children. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The median age at last birth (ALB) for females is ∼40-41 years of age across a range of natural fertility populations. This suggests that there is a fairly universal pattern of age-related fertility decline. However, little is known about the distribution of female ALB and in the present era of modern birth control, it is impossible to assess the age-specific distribution of ALB. Reliable information is lacking that could benefit couples who envisage delaying childbearing. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study is a review of high-quality historical data sets of natural fertility populations in which the distributions of female age at last birth were analysed. The studies selected used a retrospective cohort design where women were followed as they age through their reproductive years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Using a common set of eligibility criteria, large data files of natural fertility populations were prepared such that the analysis could be performed in parallel across all populations. Data on the ALB and confounding variables are presented as box and whisker plots denoting the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentile distribution of the age at last birth for each population. The analysis includes the estimation of Kaplan-Meier curves for age at last birth of each population. The hazard curve for ALB was obtained by plotting the smoothed hazard curve of each population and taking the lowest hazard within a time period of at least 5 years. This lowest hazard curve was then transformed into a cumulative distribution function representing the composite curve of the end of biological fertility. This curve was based on the data from three of the six populations, having the lowest hazards of end of fertility. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We selected six natural fertility populations comprising 58 051 eligible women. While these populations represent different historical time periods, the distribution of the ages at last birth is remarkably similar. The curve denoting the end of fertility indicates that <3% of women had their last birth at age 20 years meaning that almost 98% were able to have at least one child thereafter. The cumulative curve for the end of fertility slowly increases from 4.5% at age 25 years, 7% at age 30 years, 12% at age 35 years and 20% at age 38 years. Thereafter, it rises rapidly to about 50% at age 41, almost 90% at age 45 years and approaching 100% at age 50 years. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: It may be argued that these historical fertility data do not apply to the present time; however, the age-dependent decline in fertility is similar to current populations and is consistent with the pattern seen in women treated by donor insemination. Furthermore, for reproductive ageing, we note that it is unlikely that such a conserved biological process with a high degree of heritability would have changed significantly within a century or two. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We argue that the age-specific ALB curve can be used to counsel couples who envisage having children in the future. Our findings challenge the unsubstantiated pessimism regarding the possibility of natural conception after age 35 years. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No external funding was either sought or obtained for this study. There are no conflicts of interest to be declared.

Advanced maternal age, short interpregnancy interval, and perinatal outcome.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the association between short interpregnancy intervals and perinatal outcome varies with maternal age. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a retrospective cohort study among 263,142 Dutch women with second deliveries that occurred between 2000 and 2007. Outcome variables were preterm delivery (<37 weeks of gestation), low birthweight in term deliveries (<2500 g) and small-for-gestational age (<10th percentile for gestational age on the basis of sex- and parity-specific Dutch standards). RESULTS: Short interpregnancy intervals (<6 months) was associated positively with preterm delivery and low birthweight, but not with being small for gestational age. The association of short interpregnancy interval with the risk of preterm delivery was weaker among older than younger women. There was no clear interaction between short interpregnancy interval and maternal age in relation to low birthweight or small for gestational age. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that the association of short interpregnancy interval with preterm delivery attenuates with increasing maternal age.

The effect of in vitro fertilization on birth rates in western countries.

BACKGROUND: We will assess to what extent in vitro fertilization (IVF) is effective in increasing the number of births overall and whether earlier application of IVF will increase this number. METHODS: We simulate 100 000 women trying for their first and second child. Natural and IVF pregnancy rates and infertility rates are age-dependent and based on published data. The age at which women start trying for their first child is based on the Netherlands 2002 data. Three cycles of IVF are given during a 12-month period after 1 or 3 years of trying to conceive unsuccessfully. Main outcome measures are live born deliveries and children, both naturally conceived or after IVF, as well as numbers of singletons, twins and triplets, the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of IVF cycles performed. RESULTS: Full access to IVF after 3 years increases the TFR by 0.08 children. Applying IVF after 1 year leads to an additional TFR increase of 0.04, with double the number of IVF cycles and twin and triplet children, and a shift from naturally conceived children to IVF children. CONCLUSIONS: Full access to IVF after 3 years is important. It does increase the TFR. Early availability of IVF would further increase the TFR, but with side-effects and high costs.

Expected poor ovarian response in predicting cumulative pregnancy rates: a powerful tool.

Poor ovarian response in IVF cycles is associated with poor pregnancy rates. Expected poor responders may represent the worst prognostic group. Data were used from 222 patients starting the first of three IVF treatment cycles. The predictability of ongoing pregnancy after three cycles was analysed using survival analysis and hazard rate ratios. If first cycle poor responders were also predicted to have a poor response, they were classified as expected poor responders. The predicted pregnancy rate in cycles 2 and 3 for women with an observed poor response in the first cycle was approximately 24% for women aged 30 years and approximately 14% for women aged 40 years. For women with an expected poor response these rates were 12% and 6%, respectively. In contrast, women aged 40 years with an unexpected poor response still had a predicted cumulative pregnancy rate of 24%. Age as a sole predictor of cumulative pregnancy does not help to identify poor prognosis cases. Cumulative pregnancy rates in subsequent cycles for patients with an observed poor response in the first cycle may be a reason to refrain from further treatment. However, if such poor response has been expected, further treatment may be avoided because of an unfavourable prognosis for pregnancy.

A mild treatment strategy for in-vitro fertilisation: a randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Mild in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment might lessen both patients' discomfort and multiple births, with their associated risks. We aimed to test the hypothesis that mild IVF treatment can achieve the same chance of a pregnancy resulting in term livebirth within 1 year compared with standard treatment, and can also reduce patients' discomfort, multiple pregnancies, and costs. METHODS: We did a randomised, non-inferiority effectiveness trial. 404 patients were randomly assigned to undergo either mild treatment (mild ovarian stimulation with gonadotropin-releasing hormone [GnRH] antagonist co-treatment combined with single embryo transfer) or a standard treatment (stimulation with a GnRH agonist long-protocol and transfer of two embryos). Primary endpoints were proportion of cumulative pregnancies leading to term livebirth within 1 year after randomisation (with a non-inferiority threshold of -12.5%), total costs per couple up to 6 weeks after expected date of delivery, and overall discomfort for patients. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Clinical Trial, number ISRCTN35766970. FINDINGS: The proportions of cumulative pregnancies that resulted in term livebirth after 1 year were 43.4% with mild treatment and 44.7% with standard treatment (absolute number of patients=86 for both groups). The lower limit of the one-sided 95% CI was -9.8%. The proportion of couples with multiple pregnancy outcomes was 0.5% with mild IVF treatment versus 13.1% (p<0.0001) with standard treatment, and mean total costs were 8333 euros and 10745 euros, respectively (difference 2412 euros, 95% CI 703-4131). There were no significant differences between the groups in the anxiety, depression, physical discomfort, or sleep quality of the mother. INTERPRETATION: Over 1 year of treatment, cumulative rates of term livebirths and patients' discomfort are much the same for mild ovarian stimulation with single embryos transferred and for standard stimulation with two embryos transferred. However, a mild IVF treatment protocol can substantially reduce multiple pregnancy rates and overall costs.

A case study of the applicability of a prediction model for the selection of patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for single embryo transfer in another center.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the application in a different fertility clinic of a prediction model for selecting IVF patients for elective single embryo transfer. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a large database obtained from a tertiary infertility center. SETTING: University medical center. PATIENT(S): The model, derived at the "development center" was applied in 494 consecutive first IVF cycles carried out at the "application center." INTERVENTION(S): After adjustment of embryo scoring system to be compatible with that used by the prediction model, it was applied to the development center data. A score chart for predicting the probability of singleton or twin pregnancy was constructed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) was determined to measure the ability of the model to discriminate between ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy. Calibration plots were made to assess agreement between predicted and observed pregnancy rates (PR). RESULTS: The areas under the ROC for predicting ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy were 0.63 and 0.66, respectively. Insertion of a correction factor equivalent to the difference in odds ratios for ongoing PR between the two centers was required to improve the calibration of the model. CONCLUSION(S): After adaptation, the model performed well in the application center.

Female reproductive ageing: current knowledge and future trends.

Over the past few decades, postponement of childbearing has led to a decrease in family size and increased rates of age-related female subfertility. Age-related decrease in ovarian follicle numbers and a decay in oocyte quality dictate the occurrence of natural loss of fecundity and, ultimately, menopause. The rate of this ovarian ageing process is highly variable among women. Identification of women who have severely decreased ovarian reserve for their age is, therefore, clinically relevant. Endocrine and imaging tests for ovarian reserve relate mainly to the quantitative aspect of ovarian reserve, but their capacity to predict the chances for pregnancy is limited. Genetic factors regulating the size of the follicle pool and the rate of its depletion might be identified in the near future and, possibly, assist the accurate prediction of a woman's reproductive lifespan.

Ultrasonography as a tool for the prediction of outcome in IVF patients: a comparative meta-analysis of ovarian volume and antral follicle count.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate by meta-analysis the predictive capacity of ovarian volume as an ovarian reserve test in comparison to the antral follicle count (AFC). DESIGN: Meta-analysis. SETTING: Tertiary fertility center. PATIENT(S): Patients undergoing IVF. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Poor ovarian response, nonpregnancy. RESULT(S): A total of 10 studies were detected reporting on ovarian volume and 17 studies on AFC. Because of heterogeneity among studies, calculation of one summary point estimate for sensitivity and specificity was not meaningful. However, for both tests, summary receiver operating characteristic curves for the outcome measures poor response and nonpregnancy could be estimated and compared. The AFC performed statistically significantly better than ovarian volume in the prediction of poor response. The overall accuracy for predicting nonpregnancy was poor for both tests. The clinical value in poor response prediction was only evident for the AFC as a considerable number of cases can be identified who will have a high chance of producing a poor response to stimulation. The clinical value for nonpregnancy was virtually absent for both tests. CONCLUSION(S): In conclusion, the predictive performance of ovarian volume toward poor response is clearly inferior compared with that of AFC. Therefore, the AFC may be considered the test of first choice when estimating quantitative ovarian reserve before IVF. For the prediction of cases with a very low chance for pregnancy, ovarian reserve testing with the use of ultrasound appears inadequate.

FSH receptor genotype is associated with pregnancy but not with ovarian response in IVF.

Two very common single nucleotide polymorphisms at positions 307 and 680 in exon 10 of the FSH receptor gene have been associated with ovarian response in IVF. This observational study evaluated the role of the FSH receptor genotype in the prediction of poor response and clinical pregnancy in IVF in comparison with other markers, such as age, basal FSH, anti-Müllerian hormone and antral follicle count. In addition, the in-vitro cAMP response towards recombinant FSH in cultured granulosa cells of patients with different FSH receptor genotypes was determined. A total of 105 IVF patients undergoing ovarian stimulation in a long suppression protocol were included in the study. The ovarian response was comparable between patients with different FSH receptor genotypes. Patients with polymorphism Ser/Ser had implantation and pregnancy rates that were three times higher compared with patients with polymorphism Asn/Asn. FSH receptor genotype was not associated with a poor response in IVF, but showed a positive association with pregnancy, independent of age. There was no difference in cAMP production in cultured granulosa cells of patients with different FSH receptor genotypes (n=62). It is concluded that FSH receptor genotype is associated with pregnancy in IVF, but not with ovarian response.

The clomiphene citrate challenge test for the prediction of poor ovarian response and nonpregnancy in patients undergoing in vitro fertilization: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the value of the clomiphene citrate challenge test (CCCT) in the prediction of poor ovarian response and pregnancy in IVF. DESIGN: Systematic review. SETTING: All studies that evaluated the CCCT in the prediction of poor ovarian response or pregnancy after IVF. PATIENT(S): Infertility population undergoing an IVF treatment. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Poor ovarian response, nonpregnancy. RESULT(S): From the literature we identified and analyzed 12 studies on the CCCT according to preset criteria. In predicting poor response, the sensitivity and specificity of the CCCT varied from 35% to 93% and 47% to 98%, respectively. In predicting nonpregnancy, the sensitivity and specificity varied from 13% to 66% and 73% to 97%, respectively. Because of heterogeneity among studies, a summary receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve could not be estimated. Back-to-back comparison of the CCCT with basal FSH was possible in six studies. In predicting poor response, the sensitivity of the CCCT increased to some extent, whereas specificity did not increase or even diminished. In predicting nonpregnancy, the CCCT also showed an increase in sensitivity, counteracted by a decrease in specificity. CONCLUSION(S): Summary estimates of test accuracy for the CCCT in IVF are not possible, because of heterogeneity among individual studies. A subanalysis of studies comparing basal FSH and the full CCCT showed that the CCCT has hardly any additional value.

A high number of oocytes obtained after ovarian hyperstimulation for in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection is not associated with decreased pregnancy outcome.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the possible negative effects of a strong ovarian response on oocyte quality. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Tertiary academic center. PATIENT(S): A total of 1,894 women (IVF, n = 1,544; ICSI, n = 350) who underwent their first ovarian stimulation cycle during the period 1995-2002. INTERVENTION(S): Standardized controlled ovarian stimulation with urinary FSH or recombinant FSH after pituitary down-regulation, followed by IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and ET. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Fertilization rate, fraction of high-quality embryos, and implantation rate. RESULT(S): Using multivariate logistic regression, we analyzed the effect, expressed as an odds ratio (OR), of the number of oocytes obtained (i.e., ovarian response) on the outcome measures. No effect of the response on the ongoing implantation rate or fraction of high-quality embryos was observed. Both in IVF (OR = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.87) and in ICSI (OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.76-1.00), a negative effect of increasing ovarian response was seen on the fertilization rate per oocyte obtained. However, no negative effect was observed on the fertilization rate per oocyte injected in ICSI (OR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.87-1.14). The fraction of immature oocytes rises from 3.9%, in women with < or = 3 oocytes, to 26% in women with > 20 oocytes. CONCLUSION(S): Oocytes from high responders contain a greater fraction of immature oocytes, but pregnancy outcome is not impaired.

Use of ovarian reserve tests for the prediction of ongoing pregnancy in couples with unexplained or mild male infertility.

The chance of infertile patients conceiving is related to factors like female age and duration of infertility. This prospective observational study evaluated whether the results of ovarian reserve tests, including the novel marker serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), were of additional value in predicting ongoing pregnancy. Two hundred and twenty-two patients diagnosed with unexplained infertility or mild male factor (total motile count>10x10(6)) on the basis of the infertility work-up were prospectively included. Antral follicle count, AMH, inhibin B, FSH and oestradiol concentrations were determined during the early follicular phase. Outcome measures were treatment-dependent and treatment-independent ongoing pregnancy and time to ongoing pregnancy. There were 159 ongoing pregnancies, 52 of which occurred spontaneously. Pregnant patients were significantly younger than those who did not become pregnant (median age 32.4 versus 34.9 years, P<0.001) and FSH concentrations were higher in non-pregnant patients (median 6.8 versus 7.6 IU/l, P=0.04). Only age (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.97) and whether or not the patient was undergoing treatment (hazard ratio 8.10, 95% CI 5.66-11.61) were significantly associated with time to ongoing pregnancy. Ovarian reserve tests, other than chronological age, seem of limited value in predicting (time to) ongoing pregnancy in patients with unexplained and mild male infertility.

Serum antimullerian hormone levels best reflect the reproductive decline with age in normal women with proven fertility: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess which of the basal ovarian reserve markers provides the best reflection of the changes occurring in ovarian function over time (i.e., reproductive aging). DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Healthy volunteers in an academic research center. PATIENT(S): Eighty-one women with normal reproductive performance during the course of their lives were longitudinally assessed. In this select group of women, becoming chronologically older was considered as a proxy variable for becoming older from a reproductive point of view. INTERVENTION(S): The women were assessed twice, with on average a 4-year interval (T(1) and T(2)). The number of antral follicles on ultrasound (AFC) and blood levels of antimullerian hormone (AMH), FSH, inhibin B, and E(2) were assessed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Longitudinal changes of the markers mentioned and the consistency of these parameters over time. RESULT(S): The mean ages at T(1) and T(2) were 39.6 and 43.6 years, respectively. Although AFC was strongly associated with age in a cross-sectional fashion, it did not change over time. The AMH, FSH, and inhibin B levels showed a significant change over time, in contrast to E(2) levels. The AMH and AFC were highly correlated with age both at T(1) and T(2), whereas FSH and inhibin B predominantly changed in women more than 40 years of age. To assess the consistency of these parameters over time, we investigated whether a woman's individual level above or below the mean of her age group at T(1) remained above or below the mean of her age group at T(2). Serum AMH concentrations showed the best consistency, with AFC as second best. The FSH and inhibin B showed only modest consistency, whereas E(2) showed no consistency at all. CONCLUSION(S): These results indicate that serum AMH represents the best endocrine marker to assess the age-related decline of reproductive capacity.