Outcome without any adjuvant systemic treatment in stage I ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients included in the MINDACT trial.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant systemic treatments (AST) reduce mortality, but have associated short- and long-term toxicities. Careful selection of patients likely to benefit from AST is needed. We evaluated outcome of low-risk breast cancer patients of the EORTC 10041/BIG 3-04 MINDACT trial who received no AST. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative, lymph node-negative tumors ≤2 cm who received no AST were matched 1 : 1 to patients with similar tumor characteristics treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET), using propensity score matching and exact matching on age, genomic risk (70-gene signature) and grade. In a post hoc analysis, distant metastasis-free interval (DMFI) and overall survival (OS) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and hazard ratios (HR) by Cox regression. Cumulative incidences of locoregional recurrence (LRR) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) were assessed with competing risk analyses. RESULTS: At 8 years, DMFI rates were 94.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 92.7% to 96.9%] in 509 patients receiving no AST, and 97.3% (95% CI 95.8% to 98.8%) in 509 matched patients who received only ET [absolute difference: 2.5%, HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.30-1.03)]. No statistically significant difference was seen in 8-year OS rates, 95.4% (95% CI 93.5% to 97.4%) in patients receiving no AST and 95.6% (95% CI 93.8% to 97.5%) in patients receiving only ET [absolute difference: 0.2%, HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.53-1.41)]. Cumulative incidence rates of LRR and CBC were 4.7% (95% CI 3.0% to 7.0%) and 4.6% (95% CI 2.9% to 6.9%) in patients receiving no AST versus 1.4% (95% CI 0.6% to 2.9%) and 1.5% (95% CI 0.6% to 3.1%) in patients receiving only ET. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stage I low-risk breast cancer, the effect of ET on DMFI was limited, but overall significantly fewer breast cancer events were observed in patients who received ET, after the relatively short follow-up of 8 years. These benefits and side-effects of ET should be discussed with all patients, even those at a very low risk of distant metastasis.

Combining method of detection and 70-gene signature for enhanced prognostication of breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Studies have shown that screen detection by national screening programs is independently associated with better prognosis of breast cancer. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between tumor biology according to the 70-gene signature (70-GS) and survival of patients with screen-detected and interval breast cancers. METHODS: All Dutch breast cancer patients enrolled in the MINDACT trial (EORTC-10041/BIG3-04) accrued 2007-2011, who participated in the national screening program (biennial screening, ages 50-75) were included (n = 1102). Distant Metastasis-Free Interval (DMFI) was evaluated according to the 70-GS for patients with screen-detected (n = 754) and interval cancers (n = 348). RESULTS: Patients with screen-detected cancers had 8-year DMFI rates of 98.2% for 70-GS ultralow-, 94.6% for low-, and 93.8% for high-risk tumors (p = 0.4). For interval cancers, there was a significantly lower 8-year DMFI rate for patients with 70-GS high-risk tumors (85.2%) compared to low- (92.2%) and ultralow-risk tumors (97.4%, p = 0.0023). Among patients with 70-GS high-risk tumors, a significant difference in 8-year DMFI rate was observed between interval (85.2%, n = 166) versus screen-detected cancers (93.8%, n = 238; p = 0.002) with a HR of 2.3 (95%CI 1.2-4.4, p = 0.010) adjusted for clinical-pathological characteristics and adjuvant systemic treatment. CONCLUSION: Among patients with 70-GS high-risk tumors, a significant difference in DMFI was observed between screen-detected and interval cancers, suggesting that method of detection is an additional prognostic factor in this subgroup and should be taken into account when deciding on adjuvant treatment strategies.

Predicted sensitivity to endocrine therapy for stage II-III hormone receptor-positive and HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer before chemo-endocrine therapy.

BACKGROUND: We proposed that a test for sensitivity to the adjuvant endocrine therapy component of treatment for patients with stage II-III breast cancer (SET2,3) should measure transcription related to estrogen and progesterone receptors (SETER/PR index) adjusted for a baseline prognostic index (BPI) combining clinical tumor and nodal stage with molecular subtype by RNA4 (ESR1, PGR, ERBB2, and AURKA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with clinically high-risk, hormone receptor-positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer received neoadjuvant taxane-anthracycline chemotherapy, surgery with measurement of residual cancer burden (RCB), and then adjuvant endocrine therapy. SET2,3 was measured from pre-treatment tumor biopsies, evaluated first in an MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) cohort (n = 307, 11 years' follow-up, U133A microarrays), cut point was determined, and then independent, blinded evaluation was carried out in the I-SPY2 trial (n = 268, high-risk MammaPrint result, 3.8 years' follow-up, Agilent-44K microarrays, NCI Clinical Trials ID: NCT01042379). Primary outcome measure was distant relapse-free survival. Multivariate Cox regression models tested prognostic independence of SET2,3 relative to RCB and other molecular prognostic signatures, and whether other prognostic signatures could substitute for SETER/PR or RNA4 components of SET2,3. RESULTS: SET2,3 added independent prognostic information to RCB in the MDACC cohort: SET2,3 [hazard ratio (HR) 0.23, P = 0.004] and RCB (HR 1.77, P < 0.001); and the I-SPY2 trial: SET2,3 (HR 0.27, P = 0.031) and RCB (HR 1.68, P = 0.008). SET2,3 provided similar prognostic information irrespective of whether RCB-II or RCB-III after chemotherapy, and in both luminal subtypes. Conversely, RCB was most strongly prognostic in cancers with low SET2,3 status (MDACC P < 0.001, I-SPY2 P < 0.001). Other molecular signatures were not independently prognostic; they could effectively substitute for RNA4 subtype within the BPI component of SET2,3, but they could not effectively substitute for SETER/PR index. CONCLUSIONS: SET2,3 added independent prognostic information to chemotherapy response (RCB) and baseline prognostic score or subtype. Approximately 40% of patients with clinically high-risk HR+/HER2- disease had high SET2,3 and could be considered for clinical trials of neoadjuvant endocrine-based treatment.

A clinical validation study of MammaPrint in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer from the Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group 8 (ABCSG-8) biomarker cohort.

BACKGROUND: MammaPrint is a prognostic assay based on gene expression in tumors from patients with early breast cancer. MammaPrint has been extensively validated and Food and Drug Administration cleared in fresh and formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue. We aimed to assess its prognostic performance in the biomarker cohort of the Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group 8 (ABCSG-8) patient population, and to obtain a higher level of evidence with regard to its clinical validity after RNA extraction from FFPE biobank tissue. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prespecified retrospective analysis to test the prognostic performance of the MammaPrint test to predict distant recurrence-free survival at 5 and 10 years as primary end point was carried out. MammaPrint risk, clinicopathological factors (after central pathological review), and clinical risk (using a modified version of Adjuvant! Online) were evaluated by Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: From 1347 available samples, 607 (45%) failed quality control after RNA extraction. In total, 658 (49%) patients were included in survival analyses: MammaPrint low risk versus high risk is a significant prognostic factor for distant recurrence-free survival at 5 years (94.0% versus 91.6%) with a significant risk reduction of 6.5% at 10 years (log-rank P value = 0.017, low risk 91.3% versus high risk 84.8%). The multivariable models suggest that hazard ratio (HR) is primarily driven by tumor stage (5-year HR 3.89; confidence interval 1.97-7.71) and nodal status (5-year HR 1.73; confidence interval 0.91-3.21). After adjustment for clinical risk groups, MammaPrint HRs remain stable with values just below 2.0 after the first 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The MammaPrint test showed significant prognostic performance at 5 and 10 years of follow-up. In the particular cohort of ABCSG-8, the statistical independence from clinically assessed covariates remains unclear, and no conclusions concerning the clinical validity of the test can be drawn.

Circulating tumor DNA in neoadjuvant-treated breast cancer reflects response and survival.

BACKGROUND: Pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is strongly associated with favorable outcome. We examined the utility of serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) testing for predicting pCR and risk of metastatic recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was isolated from 291 plasma samples of 84 high-risk early breast cancer patients treated in the neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 TRIAL with standard NAC alone or combined with MK-2206 (AKT inhibitor) treatment. Blood was collected at pretreatment (T0), 3 weeks after initiation of paclitaxel (T1), between paclitaxel and anthracycline regimens (T2), or prior to surgery (T3). A personalized ctDNA test was designed to detect up to 16 patient-specific mutations (from whole-exome sequencing of pretreatment tumor) in cfDNA by ultra-deep sequencing. The median follow-up time for survival analysis was 4.8 years. RESULTS: At T0, 61 of 84 (73%) patients were ctDNA positive, which decreased over time (T1: 35%; T2: 14%; and T3: 9%). Patients who remained ctDNA positive at T1 were significantly more likely to have residual disease after NAC (83% non-pCR) compared with those who cleared ctDNA (52% non-pCR; odds ratio 4.33, P = 0.012). After NAC, all patients who achieved pCR were ctDNA negative (n = 17, 100%). For those who did not achieve pCR (n = 43), ctDNA-positive patients (14%) had a significantly increased risk of metastatic recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) 10.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-46.6]; interestingly, patients who did not achieve pCR but were ctDNA negative (86%) had excellent outcome, similar to those who achieved pCR (HR 1.4; 95% CI 0.15-13.5). CONCLUSIONS: Lack of ctDNA clearance was a significant predictor of poor response and metastatic recurrence, while clearance was associated with improved survival even in patients who did not achieve pCR. Personalized monitoring of ctDNA during NAC of high-risk early breast cancer may aid in real-time assessment of treatment response and help fine-tune pCR as a surrogate endpoint of survival.

[What determines a breast cancer patient's choice of hospital? The role of travel time, care history of the patient and the general practitioner's referral history]. / Wat bepaalt de ziekenhuiskeuze van borstkankerpatiënten?

OBJECTIVE: To examine to what extent patients' hospital choices are influenced by travel time, their care history, and their general practitioners' (GP) referral history. DESIGN: Quantitative study. METHOD: We used care claims data from 2015 of patients with breast cancer. We selected the initial care products of the breast cancer patients who had been referred to a hospital by a GP or GP practice. We used conditional logit choice models with 82 hospitals in the choice set to assess whether travel time to the hospital, care history of the patient in the preceding two years, and referral history of the GP were related to the choice of hospital. How often patients opted for a default choice hospital was also determined. RESULTS: We identified 74,227 breast cancer care products representing the hospital choices of 70,608 unique patients (96% female; mean age 52.7 years) who originated from 4840 different GP practices. Travel time, the patient's care history, and GP referral history were all statistically significantly related to hospital choice. Patients more often visited a hospital where they had been before, with a shorter travel time, or where relatively more patients from the same GP practice went to for breast cancer care. The latter improved the model most, followed by patient's care history and travel time. Twelve percent of patients without previous care, and 7% of patients with a care history, did not opt for a default hospital; relatively often a university hospital or specialized hospital was chosen in these cases. CONCLUSION: Next to travel time, the patient's care history and the GP's referral history clearly contribute to the hospital choice of breast cancer patients. A considerable cohort opts to receive care in a hospital that, based on travel time, the patient's care history and GP referral history, would not be the default destination.

Comprehensive transcriptomic analysis of cell lines as models of primary tumors across 22 tumor types.

Cancer cell lines are a cornerstone of cancer research but previous studies have shown that not all cell lines are equal in their ability to model primary tumors. Here we present a comprehensive pan-cancer analysis utilizing transcriptomic profiles from The Cancer Genome Atlas and the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia to evaluate cell lines as models of primary tumors across 22 tumor types. We perform correlation analysis and gene set enrichment analysis to understand the differences between cell lines and primary tumors. Additionally, we classify cell lines into tumor subtypes in 9 tumor types. We present our pancreatic cancer results as a case study and find that the commonly used cell line MIA PaCa-2 is transcriptionally unrepresentative of primary pancreatic adenocarcinomas. Lastly, we propose a new cell line panel, the TCGA-110-CL, for pan-cancer studies. This study provides a resource to help researchers select more representative cell line models.

Immunohistochemical versus molecular (BluePrint and MammaPrint) subtyping of breast carcinoma. Outcome results from the EORTC 10041/BIG 3-04 MINDACT trial.

PURPOSE: This study compares immunohistochemical (IHC) versus molecular subtyping (BluePrint and MammaPrint) in the population of patients enrolled in MINDACT and outcome based on molecular subtyping (MS) versus surrogate pathological subtyping (PS) as defined by the 2013 St. Gallen guidelines. METHODS: MS classified patients in the following subtypes: Luminal A, Luminal B, HER-2-, and Basal-type. IHC/FISH for pathological subtyping (ER, PgR, HER-2, and Ki67) was centrally assessed in the European Institute of Oncology (n = 5806). Hazard ratios for distant-metastasis-free survival (DMFS) by subtype were adjusted for chemotherapy and endocrine therapy administration and thus independent of adjuvant treatment allocation. RESULTS: PS Luminal cancers classified as HER-2+ or Basal-type by MS did not have a significantly lower DMFS than the Luminal-type cancers by MS (95.9%): HR = 1.40, 95% CI 0.75-2.60 (p = 0.294). More patients were identified with Luminal A disease by MS (63%) as compared with PS (47%) with comparable 5-year DMFS (≥96.0%). Among the 500 patients with PS TN cancers, MS identified 24 (5%) patients as Luminal-type with 5-year DMFS estimated at 100% versus 71.4% for MS HER-2+ or 90.1% for MS Basal-type. CONCLUSIONS: MS was able to re-stratify 54% of patients with a Luminal-B PS subtype to a low-risk Luminal A-type group with comparable outcome. Among TN EBC, 5% were classified as Luminal by MS with Luminal-like outcome. Molecular classification can help to identify a larger group of patients with low risk of recurrence compared with the more contemporarily used classification methodology including high-quality assessed Ki67.

Characterisation of multifocal breast cancer using the 70-gene signature in clinical low-risk patients enrolled in the EORTC 10041/BIG 03-04 MINDACT trial.

BACKGROUND: In multifocal breast cancer, guidelines recommend basing adjuvant systemic treatment decisions on characteristics of the largest lesion, disregarding multifocality as an independent prognosticator. We assessed the association between multifocal disease and both the 70-gene signature (70-GS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in clinical low-risk breast cancer patients enrolled in the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer 10041/BIG 03-04 Microarray In Node-negative and 1 to 3 positive lymph node Disease may Avoid ChemoTherapy (MINDACT) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The analysed population consisted of enrolled patients in the MINDACT trial with clinical low-risk disease, defined by a modified Adjuvant! Online cut-off for the 10-year risk of recurrent disease or death. Eligibility criteria of MINDACT dictate that patients with multifocal disease could be included if the different lesions had similar pathological characteristics. The presence of multifocal disease was deducted from the case report form (CRF)-question for sum of diameter for all invasive tumour foci. Clinicopathological characteristics and gene expression of patients with unifocal and multifocal (largest lesion) disease were compared. Subsequently, the association between multifocal disease and the 70-GS was evaluated as well as the association between multifocality and 5-year DMFS. RESULTS: The study included 3090 clinical low-risk patients with unifocal and 238 patients with multifocal disease. Apart from a higher prevalence of lobular tumours (21.8% versus 10.8%, by local pathology), we did not observe differences in baseline characteristics between multifocal and unifocal tumours. Patients with multifocal tumours were more likely to be at high genomic risk as compared to patients with unifocal tumours (22.7% versus 17.3%, odds ratio [OR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.07, P = 0.038). We did not find a significant association between tumour focality and DMFS (97.1% for unifocal versus 96.9% for multifocal, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.55, 95% CI 0.68-3.46, P = 0.172), nor a signal for a potential interaction between the prognostic effect of the 70-GS and focality of the tumour regarding DMFS. CONCLUSION: In the group of clinical low-risk MINDACT patients, multifocal tumours were more likely to have a high-risk 70-GS profile compared to unifocal tumours. We did not observe a significant interaction between multifocality and the 70-GS with respect to survival without distant metastasis in these patients.

An association study of established breast cancer reproductive and lifestyle risk factors with tumour subtype defined by the prognostic 70-gene expression signature (MammaPrint®).

BACKGROUND: Reproductive and lifestyle factors influence both breast cancer risk and prognosis; this might be through breast cancer subtype. Subtypes defined by immunohistochemical hormone receptor markers and gene expression signatures are used to predict prognosis of breast cancer patients based on their tumour biology. We investigated the association between established breast cancer risk factors and the 70-gene prognostication signature in breast cancer patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Standardised questionnaires were used to obtain information on established risk factors of breast cancer from the Dutch patients of the MINDACT trial. Clinical-pathological and genomic information were obtained from the trial database. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the associations between lifestyle risk factors and tumour prognostic subtypes, measured by the 70-gene MammaPrint® signature (i.e. low-risk or high-risk tumours). RESULTS: Of the 1555 breast cancer patients included, 910 had low-risk and 645 had high-risk tumours. Current body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, age at first birth, age at menopause, hormonal contraceptive use and hormone replacement therapy use were not associated with MammaPrint®. In parous women, higher parity was associated with a lower risk (OR: 0.75, [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.59-0.95] P = 0.018) and longer breastfeeding duration with a higher risk (OR: 1.03, [95% CI: 1.01-1.05] P = 0.005) of developing high-risk tumours; risk estimates were similar within oestrogen receptor-positive disease. After stratifying by menopausal status, the associations remained present in post-menopausal women. CONCLUSION: Using prognostic gene expression profiles, we have indications that specific reproductive factors may be associated with prognostic tumour subtypes beyond hormone receptor status.

The Novel Application of Genomic Profiling Assays to Shorten Inactive Status for Potential Kidney Transplant Recipients With Breast Cancer.

The concern about cancer recurrence has traditionally resulted in delaying kidney transplantation for 2-5 years after a cancer diagnosis in patients who are otherwise eligible for transplant. This period of inactive status to observe the tumor biology can result in significant morbidity and decreased quality of life for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We reported the novel application of genomic profiling assays in breast cancer to identify low-risk cancers in two patients with ESRD who were able to have the mandatory inactive status eliminated prior to kidney transplantation.

Gene expression profiling to predict the risk of locoregional recurrence in breast cancer: a pooled analysis.

The 70-gene signature (MammaPrint) has been developed to predict the risk of distant metastases in breast cancer and select those patients who may benefit from adjuvant treatment. Given the strong association between locoregional and distant recurrence, we hypothesize that the 70-gene signature will also be able to predict the risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR). 1,053 breast cancer patients primarily treated with breast-conserving treatment or mastectomy at the Netherlands Cancer Institute between 1984 and 2006 were included. Adjuvant treatment consisted of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and/or endocrine therapy as indicated by guidelines used at the time. All patients were included in various 70-gene signature validation studies. After a median follow-up of 8.96 years with 87 LRRs, patients with a high-risk 70-gene signature (n = 492) had an LRR risk of 12.6% (95% CI 9.7-15.8) at 10 years, compared to 6.1% (95% CI 4.1-8.5) for low-risk patients (n = 561; P < 0.001). Adjusting the 70-gene signature in a competing risk model for the clinicopathological factors such as age, tumour size, grade, hormone receptor status, LVI, axillary lymph node involvement, surgical treatment, endocrine treatment, and chemotherapy resulted in a multivariable HR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.02-2.93; P = 0.042). Adding the signature to the model based on clinicopathological factors improved the discrimination, albeit non-significantly [C-index through 10 years changed from 0.731 (95% CI 0.682-0.782) to 0.741 (95% CI 0.693-0.790)]. Calibration of the prognostic models was excellent. The 70-gene signature is an independent prognostic factor for LRR. A significantly lower local recurrence risk was seen in patients with a low-risk 70-gene signature compared to those with high-risk 70-gene signature.

Optimized outcome prediction in breast cancer by combining the 70-gene signature with clinical risk prediction algorithms.

Clinical guidelines for breast cancer treatment differ in their selection of patients at a high risk of recurrence who are eligible to receive adjuvant systemic treatment (AST). The 70-gene signature is a molecular tool to better guide AST decisions. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether adding the 70-gene signature to clinical risk prediction algorithms can optimize outcome prediction and consequently treatment decisions in early stage, node-negative breast cancer patients. A 70-gene signature was available for 427 patients participating in the RASTER study (cT1-3N0M0). Median follow-up was 61.6 months. Based on 5-year distant-recurrence free interval (DRFI) probabilities survival areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated and compared for risk estimations based on the six clinical risk prediction algorithms: Adjuvant! Online (AOL), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), St. Gallen (2003), the Dutch National guidelines (CBO 2004 and NABON 2012), and PREDICT plus. Also, survival AUC were calculated after adding the 70-gene signature to these clinical risk estimations. Systemically untreated patients with a high clinical risk estimation but a low risk 70-gene signature had an excellent 5-year DRFI varying between 97.1 and 100 %, depending on the clinical risk prediction algorithms used in the comparison. The best risk estimation was obtained in this cohort by adding the 70-gene signature to CBO 2012 (AUC: 0.644) and PREDICT (AUC: 0.662). Clinical risk estimations by all clinical algorithms improved by adding the 70-gene signature. Patients with a low risk 70-gene signature have an excellent survival, independent of their clinical risk estimation. Adding the 70-gene signature to clinical risk prediction algorithms improves risk estimations and therefore might improve the identification of early stage node-negative breast cancer patients for whom AST has limited value. In this cohort, the PREDICT plus tool in combination with the 70-gene signature provided the best risk prediction.

High concordance of protein (by IHC), gene (by FISH; HER2 only), and microarray readout (by TargetPrint) of ER, PgR, and HER2: results from the EORTC 10041/BIG 03-04 MINDACT trial.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the correlation of TargetPrint with local and central immunohistochemistry/fluorescence in situ hybridization assessment of estrogen (ER), progesterone (PgR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) in the first 800 patients enrolled in the MINDACT trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from local (N = 800) and central (N = 626) assessments of receptor status were collected and compared with TargetPrint results. RESULTS: For ER, the positive agreement (the percentage of central pathology positive assessments that were also TargetPrint/local laboratory positive) for TargetPrint in comparison to centralized assessment was 98% with a negative agreement (the percentage of central pathology negative assessments that were also TargetPrint/local laboratory negative) of 96%. For PgR, the positive agreement was 83% with a negative agreement of 92%. For HER2, the positive agreement was 75% with a negative agreement of 99%. Even though the local assessment showed higher positive agreement for PgR (89%) and higher positive agreement for HER2 (85%), the range of discordant local versus central assessments were as high as 6.7% for ER, 12.9% for PgR, and 4.3% for HER2. CONCLUSION: TargetPrint and local assessment of ER, PgR, and HER2 show high concordance with central assessment in the first 800 MINDACT patients. However, there are concerns about the higher discordance rates for some local sites. TargetPrint can improve the reliability of hormone receptor and HER2 testing for those centers with a lower rate of concordance with the reference laboratory, with the limitation of a positive agreement of 75% for HER2. TargetPrint consequently has important implications for treatment decisions in clinical practice and is a reliable alternative to local assessment for ER. CLINICAL TRIALS NUMBER: NCT00433589.

Mammographic screening detects low-risk tumor biology breast cancers.

Overdiagnosis of breast cancer, i.e. the detection of slow-growing tumors that would never have caused symptoms or death, became more prevalent with the implementation of population-based screening. Only rough estimates have been made of the proportion of patients that are overdiagnosed and identification of those patients is difficult. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether tumor biology can help identify patients with screen-detected tumors at such a low risk of recurrence that they are likely to be overdiagnosed. Furthermore, we wish to evaluate the impact of the transition from film-screen mammography (FSM) to the more sensitive full-field digital mammography (FFDM) on the biology of the tumors detected by each screening-modality. All Dutch breast cancer patients enrolled in the MINDACT trial (EORTC-10041) accrued 2007-2011, who participated in the national screening program (biennial screening ages 50-75) were included (n = 1,165). We calculated the proportions of high-, low- and among those the ultralow-risk tumors according to the 70-gene signature for patients with screen-detected (n = 775) and interval (n = 390) cancers for FSM and FFDM. Screen-detected cancers had significantly more often a low-risk tumor biology (68 %) of which 54 % even an ultralow-risk compared to interval cancers (53 % low-, of which 45 % ultralow-risk (p = 0.001) with an OR of 2.33 (p < 0.0001; 95 % CI 1.73-3.15). FFDM detected significantly more high-risk tumors (35 %) compared to FSM (27 %) (p = 0.011). Aside from favorable clinico-pathological factors, screen-detected cancers were also more likely to have a biologically low-risk or even ultralow-risk tumor. Especially for patients with screen-detected cancers the use of tools, such as the 70-gene signature, to differentiate breast cancers by risk of recurrence may minimize overtreatment. The recent transition in screening-modalities led to an increase in the detection of biologically high-risk cancers using FFDM.

Long-term impact of the 70-gene signature on breast cancer outcome.

Several studies have validated the prognostic value of the 70-gene prognosis signature (MammaPrint(R)), but long-term outcome prediction of these patients has not been previously reported. The follow-up of the consecutively treated cohort of 295 patients (<53 years) with invasive breast cancer (T1-2N0-1M0; n = 151 N0, n = 144 N1) diagnosed between 1984 and 1995, in which the 70-gene signature was previously validated, was updated. The median follow-up for this series is now extended to 18.5 years. A significant difference is seen in long-term distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) for the patients with a low- and a high-risk 70-gene signature (DMFS p < 0.0001), as well as separately for node-negative (DMFS p < 0.0001) and node-positive patients (DMFS p = 0.0004). The 25-year hazard ratios (HRs) for all patients for DMFS and OS were 3.1 (95 % CI 2.02-4.86) and 2.9 (95 % CI 1.90-4.28), respectively. The HRs for DMFS and OS were largest in the first 5 years after diagnosis: 9.6 (95 % CI 4.2-22.1) and 11.3 (95 % CI 3.5-36.4), respectively. The 25-year HRs in the subgroup of node-negative patients for DMFS and OS were 4.57 (95 % CI 2.31-9.04) and 4.73 (95 % CI 2.46-9.07), respectively, and for node-positive patients for DMFS and OS were 2.24 (95 % CI 1.25-4.00) and 1.83 (95 % CI 1.07-3.11), respectively. The 70-gene signature remains prognostic at longer follow-up in patients <53 years of age with stage I and II breast cancer. The 70-gene signature's strongest prognostic power is seen in the first 5 years after diagnosis.

A prospective evaluation of a breast cancer prognosis signature in the observational RASTER study.

The 70-gene signature (MammaPrint™) has been developed on retrospective series of breast cancer patients to predict the risk of breast cancer distant metastases. The microarRAy-prognoSTics-in-breast-cancER (RASTER) study was the first study designed to prospectively evaluate the performance of the 70-gene signature, which result was available for 427 patients (cT1-3N0M0). Adjuvant systemic treatment decisions were based on the Dutch CBO 2004 guidelines, the 70-gene signature and doctors' and patients' preferences. Five-year distant-recurrence-free-interval (DRFI) probabilities were compared between subgroups based on the 70-gene signature and Adjuvant! Online (AOL) (10-year survival probability <90% was defined as high-risk). Median follow-up was 61.6 months. Fifteen percent (33/219) of the 70-gene signature low-risk patients received adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) versus 81% (169/208) of the 70-gene signature high-risk patients. The 5-year DRFI probabilities for 70-gene signature low-risk (n = 219) and high-risk (n = 208) patients were 97.0% and 91.7%. The 5-year DRFI probabilities for AOL low-risk (n = 132) and high-risk (n = 295) patients were 96.7% and 93.4%. For 70-gene signature low-risk-AOL high-risk patients (n = 124), of whom 76% (n = 94) had not received ACT, 5-year DRFI was 98.4%. In the AOL high-risk group, 32% (94/295) less patients would be eligible to receive ACT if the 70-gene signature was used. In this prospective community-based observational study, the 5-year DRFI probabilities confirmed the additional prognostic value of the 70-gene signature to clinicopathological risk estimations such as AOL. Omission of adjuvant chemotherapy as judged appropriate by doctors and patients and instigated by a low-risk 70-gene signature result, appeared not to compromise outcome.