Towards the development of a SARS-CoV-2 variant risk assessment tool: expert consultation on the assessment of scientific evidence on emerging variants.

A systematic approach is required for the development of an evidence-based risk assessment tool to robustly estimate the risks and implications of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We conducted a survey among experts involved in technical advisory roles for WHO to capture their assessment of the robustness of different study types that provide evidence for potential changes in transmissibility, antigenicity, virulence, treatability, and detectability of SARS-CoV-2 variants. The views of 62 experts indicated that studies could be grouped on the basis of robustness and reliability for the different risk indicators mentioned. Several study types that experts scored as providing reliable evidence and that can be performed in a timely manner were identified. Although experts from different technical areas had varying responses, there was agreement on the highest and lowest scoring study types. These findings can help to prioritise, harmonise, and optimise study designs for the further development of a systematic, evidence-based, SARS-CoV-2 variant risk assessment tool.

Capturing the SARS-CoV-2 infection pyramid within the municipality of Rotterdam using longitudinal sewage surveillance.

Despite high vaccination rates in the Netherlands, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to circulate. Longitudinal sewage surveillance was implemented along with the notification of cases as two parts of the surveillance pyramid to validate the use of sewage for surveillance, as an early warning tool, and to measure the effect of interventions. Sewage samples were collected from nine neighborhoods between September 2020 and November 2021. Comparative analysis and modeling were performed to understand the correlation between wastewater and case trends. Using high resolution sampling, normalization of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations, and 'normalization' of reported positive tests for testing delay and intensity, the incidence of reported positive tests could be modeled based on sewage data, and trends in both surveillance systems coincided. The high collinearity implied that high levels of viral shedding around the onset of disease largely determined SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, and that the observed relationship was independent of variants of concern and vaccination levels. Sewage surveillance alongside a large-scale testing effort where 58 % of a municipality was tested, indicated a five-fold difference in the number of SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals and reported cases through standard testing. Where trends in reported positive cases were biased due to testing delay and testing behavior, wastewater surveillance can objectively display SARS-CoV-2 dynamics for both small and large locations and is sensitive enough to measure small variations in the number of infected individuals within or between neighborhoods. With the transition to a post-acute phase of the pandemic, sewage surveillance can help to keep track of re-emergence, but continued validation studies are needed to assess the predictive value of sewage surveillance with new variants. Our findings and model aid in interpreting SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data for public health decision-making and show its potential as one of the pillars of future surveillance of (re)emerging viruses.

Rise and fall of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Rotterdam: Comparison of wastewater and clinical surveillance.

Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater (WW) is a promising tool for epidemiological surveillance, correlating not only viral RNA levels with the infection dynamics within the population, but also to viral diversity. However, the complex mixture of viral lineages in WW samples makes tracking of specific variants or lineages circulating in the population a challenging task. We sequenced sewage samples of 9 WW-catchment areas within the city of Rotterdam, used specific signature mutations from individual SARS-CoV-2 lineages to estimate their relative abundances in WW and compared them against those observed in clinical genomic surveillance of infected individuals between September 2020 and December 2021. We showed that especially for dominant lineages, the median of the frequencies of signature mutations coincides with the occurrence of those lineages in Rotterdam's clinical genomic surveillance. This, along with digital droplet RT-PCR targeting signature mutations of specific variants of concern (VOCs), showed that several VOCs emerged, became dominant and were replaced by the next VOC in Rotterdam at different time points during the study. In addition, single nucleotide variant (SNV) analysis provided evidence that spatio-temporal clusters can also be discerned from WW samples. We were able to detect specific SNVs in sewage, including one resulting in the Q183H amino acid change in the Spike gene, that was not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our results highlight the potential use of WW samples for genomic surveillance, increasing the set of epidemiological tools to monitor SARS-CoV-2 diversity.

The impact of variant and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 symptomatology; three prospective household cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: We compared age-stratified SARS-CoV-2 symptomatology of wild-type/Alpha vs Omicron BA.1/BA.2 variant infected individuals and the impact of COVID-19 booster vaccination on Omicron symptom burden. METHODS: Data from three European prospective household cohorts were used (April 2020 to April 2021 and January to March 2022). Standardized outbreak protocols included (repeated) polymerase chain reaction testing, paired serology, and daily symptom scoring for all household members. Comparative analyses were performed on 346 secondary household cases from both periods. RESULTS: Children <12 years (all unvaccinated) experienced more symptoms and higher severity scores during Omicron compared with wild-type/Alpha period (P ≤0.01). In adults, Omicron disease duration and severity were reduced (P ≤ 0.095). Omicron was associated with lower odds for loss of smell or taste (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.14; 95% CI 0.03-0.50) and higher but non-significant odds for upper respiratory symptoms, fever, and fatigue (aORs: 1.85-2.23). No differences were observed in disease severity or duration between primary vs booster series vaccinated adults (P ≥0.12). CONCLUSION: The Omicron variant causes higher symptom burden in children compared with wild-type/Alpha and lower in adults, possibly due to previous vaccination. A shift in symptoms occurred with reduction in loss of smell/taste for Omicron. No additional effect of booster vaccination on Omicron symptom burden was observed.

Community-based SARS-CoV-2 testing in low-income neighbourhoods in Rotterdam: Results from a pilot study.

Background: High incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and low testing uptake were reported in low-income neighbourhoods in Rotterdam. We aimed to improve willingness and access to testing by introducing community-based test facilities, and to evaluate the effectiveness of a rapid antigen detection test (RDT). Methods: Two to eleven test facilities operated consecutively in three low-income neighbourhoods in Rotterdam, offering the options of walk-in or appointments. Background characteristics were collected at intake and one nasopharyngeal swab was taken and processed using both RDT and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Visitors were asked to join a survey for evaluation purposes. Results: In total, 19 773 visitors were tested - 9662 (48.9%) without an appointment. Walk-in visitors were older, lived more often in the proximity of the test facilities, and reported coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related symptoms less often than by-appointment visitors. For 67.7% of the visitors, this was the first time they got tested. A total of 1211 (6.1%) tested SARS-CoV-2-positive with RT-PCR, of whom 309 (25.5%) were asymptomatic. Test uptake increased among residents of the pilot neighbourhoods, especially in the older age groups, compared to people living in comparable neighbourhoods without community-based testing facilities. RDT detected asymptomatic individuals with 71.8% sensitivity, which was acceptable in this high prevalence setting. Visitors reported positive attitudes towards the test facilities and welcomed the easy access. Conclusions: Offering community-based SARS-CoV-2 testing seems a promising approach for increasing testing uptake among specific populations in low-income neighbourhoods.

Population-based screening in a municipality after a primary school outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant, the Netherlands, December 2020-February 2021.

An outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (Pango lineage B.1.1.7) was detected at a primary school (School X) in Lansingerland, the Netherlands, in December 2020. The outbreak was studied retrospectively, and population-based screening was used to assess the extent of virus circulation and decelerate transmission. Cases were SARS-CoV-2 laboratory confirmed and were residents of Lansingerland (November 16th 2020 until February 22th 2021), or had an epidemiological link with School X or neighbouring schools. The SARS-CoV-2 variant was determined using variant PCR or whole genome sequencing. A questionnaire primarily assessed clinical symptoms. A total of 77 Alpha variant cases were found with an epidemiological link to School X, 16 Alpha variant cases linked to the neighbouring schools, and 146 Alpha variant cases among residents of Lansingerland without a link to the schools. The mean number of self-reported symptoms was not significantly different among Alpha variant infected individuals compared to non-Alpha infected individuals. The secondary attack rate (SAR) among Alpha variant exposed individuals in households was 52% higher compared to non-Alpha variant exposed individuals (p = 0.010), with the mean household age, and mean number of children and adults per household as confounders. Sequence analysis of 60 Alpha variant sequences obtained from cases confirmed virus transmission between School X and neighbouring schools, and showed that multiple introductions of the Alpha variant had already taken place in Lansingerland at the time of the study. The alpha variant caused a large outbreak at both locations of School X, and subsequently spread to neighbouring schools, and households. Population-based screening (together with other public health measures) nearly stopped transmission of the outbreak strain, but did not prevent variant replacement in the Lansingerland municipality.

Profiling of humoral immune responses to norovirus in children across Europe.

Norovirus is a leading cause of epidemic acute gastroenteritis. More than 30 genotypes circulate in humans, some are common, and others are only sporadically detected. Here, we investigated whether serology can be used to determine which genotypes infect children. We established a multiplex protein microarray with structural and non-structural norovirus antigens that allowed simultaneous antibody testing against 30 human GI and GII genotypes. Antibody responses of sera obtained from 287 children aged < 1 month to 5.5 years were profiled. Most specific IgG and IgA responses were directed against the GII.2, GII.3, GII.4, and GII.6 capsid genotypes. While we detected antibody responses against rare genotypes, we found no evidence for wide circulation. We also detected genotype-specific antibodies against the non-structural proteins p48 and p22 in sera of older children. In this study, we show the age-dependent antibody responses to a broad range of norovirus capsid and polymerase genotypes, which will aid in the development of vaccines.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within households: a remote prospective cohort study in European countries.

Household transmission studies are useful to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. We conducted a remote prospective household study to quantify transmission, and the effects of subject characteristics, household characteristics, and implemented infection control measures on transmission. Households with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 index case were enrolled < 48 h following test result. Follow-up included digitally daily symptom recording, regular nose-throat self-sampling and paired dried blood spots from all household members. Samples were tested for virus detection and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Secondary attack rates (SARs) and associated factors were estimated using logistic regression. In 276 households with 920 participants (276 index cases and 644 household members) daily symptom diaries and questionnaires were completed by 95%, and > 85% completed sample collection. 200 secondary SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected, yielding a household SAR of 45.7% (95% CI 39.7-51.7%) and per-person SAR of 32.6% (95%CI: 28.1-37.4%). 126 (63%) secondary cases were detected at enrollment. Mild (aRR = 0.57) and asymptomatic index cases (aRR = 0.29) were less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2, compared to index cases with an acute respiratory illness (p = 0.03 for trend), and child index cases (< 12 years aRR = 0.60 and 12-18 years aRR = 0.85) compared to adults (p = 0.03 for trend). Infection control interventions in households had no significant effect on transmission. We found high SARs with the majority of transmissions occuring early after SARS-CoV-2 introduction into the household. This may explain the futile effect of implemented household measures. Age and symptom status of the index case influence secondary transmission. Remote, digitally-supported study designs with self-sampling are feasible for studying transmission under pandemic restrictions.

Case numbers of acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology among children in 24 countries up to 18 April 2022 compared to the previous 5 years.

An increase of acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology has been reported among children in multiple countries worldwide. With a rapid online survey among hospitals in and outside of Europe, we describe case numbers recorded from 1 January to 18 April 2022 vs the previous 5 years. Of 24 countries that responded, we identified 5/17 European and 1/7 non-European countries with an elevation in probable cases of unexplained acute hepatitis, and severe cases were elevated in five European countries.

From more testing to smart testing: data-guided SARS-CoV-2 testing choices, the Netherlands, May to September 2020.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assays are more sensitive than rapid antigen detection assays (RDT) and can detect viral RNA even after an individual is no longer infectious. RDT can reduce the time to test and the results might better correlate with infectiousness.AimWe assessed the ability of five RDT to identify infectious COVID-19 cases and systematically recorded the turnaround time of RT-PCR testing.MethodsSensitivity of RDT was determined using a serially diluted SARS-CoV-2 stock with known viral RNA concentration. The probability of detecting infectious virus at a given viral load was calculated using logistic regression of viral RNA concentration and matched culture results of 78 specimens from randomly selected non-hospitalised cases. The probability of each RDT to detect infectious cases was calculated as the sum of the projected probabilities for viral isolation success for every viral RNA load found at the time of diagnosis in 1,739 confirmed non-hospitalised COVID-19 cases.ResultsThe distribution of quantification cycle values and estimated RNA loads for patients reporting to drive-through testing was skewed to high RNA loads. With the most sensitive RDT (Abbott and SD Biosensor), 97.30% (range: 88.65-99.77) of infectious individuals would be detected. This decreased to 92.73% (range: 60.30-99.77) for Coris BioConcept and GenBody, and 75.53% (range: 17.55-99.77) for RapiGEN. Only 32.9% of RT-PCR results were available on the same day as specimen collection.ConclusionThe most sensitive RDT detected infectious COVID-19 cases with high sensitivity and may considerably improve containment through more rapid isolation and contact tracing.

Clinical evaluation of the SD Biosensor SARS-CoV-2 saliva antigen rapid test with symptomatic and asymptomatic, non-hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND: Performance of the SD Biosensor saliva antigen rapid test was evaluated at a large designated testing site in non-hospitalized patients, with or without symptoms. METHOD: All eligible people over 18 years of age presenting for a booked appointment at the designated SARS-CoV-2 testing site were approached for inclusion and enrolled following verbal informed consent. One nasopharyngeal swab was taken to carry out the default antigen rapid test from which the results were reported back to the patient and one saliva sample was self-taken according to verbal instruction on site. This was used for the saliva antigen rapid test, the RT-PCR and for virus culture. Sensitivity of the saliva antigen rapid test was analyzed in two ways: i, compared to saliva RT-PCR; and ii, compared to virus culture of the saliva samples. Study participants were also asked to fill in a short questionnaire stating age, sex, date of symptom onset. Recommended time of ≥30mins since last meal, drink or cigarette if applicable was also recorded. The study was carried out in February-March 2021 for 4 weeks. RESULTS: We could include 789 people with complete records and results. Compared to saliva RT-PCR, overall sensitivity and specificity of the saliva antigen rapid test was 66.1% and 99.6% which increased to 88.6% with Ct ≤30 cutoff. Analysis by days post onset did not result in higher sensitivities because the large majority of people were in the very early phase of disease ie <3 days post onset. When breaking down the data for symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, sensitivity ranged from 69.2% to 50% respectively, however the total number of RT-PCR positive asymptomatic participants was very low (n = 5). Importantly, almost all culture positive samples were detected by the rapid test. CONCLUSION: Overall, the potential benefits of saliva antigen rapid test, could outweigh the lower sensitivity compared to nasopharyngeal antigen rapid test in a comprehensive testing strategy, especially for home/self-testing and in vulnerable populations like elderly, disabled or children where in intrusive testing is either not possible or causes unnecessary stress.

A mixed-methods approach to elucidate SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and clustering in outbreaks in native workers and labour migrants in the fruit and vegetable packaging industry in South Holland, the Netherlands, May to July 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To obtain insight into SARS-CoV-2 clustering and transmission routes during outbreaks in the predominantly migrant workforce of the fruit and vegetable packaging industry of South Holland, the Netherlands, May to July 2020. DESIGN: This mixed-methods study applied direct observation and interviews, epidemiologic investigation, source and contact data analysis and whole-genome sequencing. RESULTS: We detected 46 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 4 outbreaks with a proportional representation of labour migrant and native workers in 6 unrelated facilities. Complete viral genome sequences revealed at least 3 clusters of native workers and labour migrants, 2 within and 1 between facilities. On-site inspections found adequate implementation of preventative measures to which both native workers and labour migrants showed suboptimal adherence. Being a labour migrant was associated with living in shared housing, but not with more contacts or different sources. CONCLUSIONS: The fruit and vegetable packaging industry gave the impression of sufficient preparedness and control. Suboptimal adherence to the facilities' preventative guidelines could have facilitated work floor transmission. Community and household transmission are likely to have contributed to outbreaks. We encourage further research into risk factors for transmission in labour migrants and application of these insights into targeted public health policy.

Clinical Evaluation of Roche SD Biosensor Rapid Antigen Test for SARS-CoV-2 in Municipal Health Service Testing Site, the Netherlands.

Rapid detection of infection is essential for stopping the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The Roche SD Biosensor rapid antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 was evaluated in a nonhospitalized symptomatic population. We rapid-tested a sample onsite and compared results with those from reverse transcription PCR and virus culture. We analyzed date of onset and symptoms using data from a clinical questionnaire. Overall test sensitivity was 84.9% (95% CI 79.1-89.4) and specificity was 99.5% (95% CI 98.7-99.8). Sensitivity increased to 95.8% (95% CI 90.5-98.2) for persons who sought care within 7 days of symptom onset. Test band intensity and time to result correlated strongly with viral load; thus, strong positive results could be read before the recommended time. Approximately 98% of all viable specimens with cycle threshold <30 were detected. Rapid antigen tests can detect symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in the early phase of disease, thereby identifying the most infectious persons.

Tracing local and regional clusters of carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae ST512 with whole genome sequencing, Finland, 2013 to 2018.

BackgroundTwo epidemiologically-unrelated clusters of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing K. pneumoniae were detected among several healthcare facilities (HCF) in Finland by routine surveillance using whole genome sequencing (WGS).AimThe objective was to investigate transmission chains to stop further spread of the responsible strain.MethodsIn this observational retrospective study, cases were defined as patients with K. pneumoniae KPC-3 sequence type (ST)512 strain detected in Finland from August 2013 to May 2018. Environmental specimens were obtained from surfaces, sinks and toilets in affected wards. WGS was performed on K. pneumoniae cultures using Illumina MiSeq platform and data were analysed using Ridom SeqShere software K. pneumoniae core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) scheme. Epidemiological information of the cases was provided by HCFs.ResultsWe identified 20 cases in six HCFs: cluster 1 included 18 cases in five HCFs and cluster 2 two cases in one HCF. In cluster 1, a link with a foreign country was unclear, 6/18 cases without overlapping stay had occupied the same room in one of the five HCFs within > 3 years. In cluster 2, the index case was transferred from abroad, both cases occupied the same room 8 months apart. A strain identical to that of the two cases in cgMLST was isolated from the toilet of the room, suggesting a clonal origin.ConclusionsThe clusters were mostly related to case transfer between facilities and likely involved environmental transmission. We show that CPE surveillance using WGS and collaboration between hospitals are crucial to identify clusters and trace transmission chains.

Molecular surveillance of norovirus, 2005-16: an epidemiological analysis of data collected from the NoroNet network.

BACKGROUND: The development of a vaccine for norovirus requires a detailed understanding of global genetic diversity of noroviruses. We analysed their epidemiology and diversity using surveillance data from the NoroNet network. METHODS: We included genetic sequences of norovirus specimens obtained from outbreak investigations and sporadic gastroenteritis cases between 2005 and 2016 in Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Africa. We genotyped norovirus sequences and analysed sequences that overlapped at open reading frame (ORF) 1 and ORF2. Additionally, we assessed the sampling date and country of origin of the first reported sequence to assess when and where novel drift variants originated. FINDINGS: We analysed 16 635 norovirus sequences submitted between Jan 1, 2005, to Nov 17, 2016, of which 1372 (8·2%) sequences belonged to genotype GI, 15 256 (91·7%) to GII, and seven (<0·1%) to GIV.1. During this period, 26 different norovirus capsid genotypes circulated and 22 different recombinant genomes were found. GII.4 drift variants emerged with 2-3-year periodicity up to 2012, but not afterwards. Instead, the GII.4 Sydney capsid seems to persist through recombination, with a novel recombinant of GII.P16-GII.4 Sydney 2012 variant detected in 2014 in Germany (n=1) and the Netherlands (n=1), and again in 2016 in Japan (n=2), China (n=8), and the Netherlands (n=3). The novel GII.P17-GII.17, first reported in Asia in 2014, has circulated widely in Europe in 2015-16 (GII.P17 made up a highly variable proportion of all sequences in each country [median 11·3%, range 4·2-53·9], as did GII.17 [median 6·3%, range 0-44·5]). GII.4 viruses were more common in outbreaks in health-care settings (2239 [37·2%] of 6022 entries) compared with other genotypes (101 [12·5%] of 809 entries for GI and 263 [13·5%] of 1941 entries for GII non-GII.Pe-GII.4 or GII.P4-GII.4). INTERPRETATION: Continuous changes in the global norovirus genetic diversity highlight the need for sustained global norovirus surveillance, including assessment of possible immune escape and evolution by recombination, to provide a full overview of norovirus epidemiology for future vaccine policy decisions. FUNDING: European Union's Horizon 2020 grant COMPARE, ZonMw TOP grant, the Virgo Consortium funded by the Dutch Government, and the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund.

Population-based Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato seroprevalence and associated risk factors in Finland.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bb-sl) and is the most common vector-borne disease in Europe. The objectives of this study were to determine the Bb-sl seroprevalence among the general Finnish adult population and to identify risk factors associated with Bb-sl-seropositive status. Two thousand sera from a nationwide health survey from 2011 were tested by whole-cell sonicate IgG ELISA, C6 peptide ELISA, and recomBead IgG 2.0 and test results were linked to a general health questionnaire. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors. The median age of the study population was 56 years (range 29-97) and the Bb-sl weighted seroprevalence was 3.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.03-5.08). The weighted seroprevalence was significantly higher among males than females (adjusted odds ratio 1.91, 95%CI 1.21-3.04). The seroprevalence was highest in Southern, Central, and Eastern regions. The first Bb-sl seroprevalence study in Finland showed a seroprevalence of 3.9% (regional range 0.87%-6.12%). The results of this study can be used, together with previous data on LB incidence and spatial tick distribution, to target public health communication about preventive measures.

Whole-Genome Next-Generation Sequencing to Study Within-Host Evolution of Norovirus (NoV) Among Immunocompromised Patients With Chronic NoV Infection.

Background: The genus Norovirus comprises large genetic diversity, and new GII.4 variants emerge every 2-3 years. It is unknown in which host these new variants originate. Here we study whether prolonged shedders within the immunocompromised population could be a reservoir for newly emerging strains. Methods: Sixty-five fecal samples from 16 immunocompromised patients were retrospectively selected. Isolated viral RNA was enriched by hybridization with a custom norovirus whole-genome RNA bait set and deep sequenced on the Illumina MiSeq platform. Results: Patients shed virus for average 352 days (range, 76-716 days). Phylogenetic analysis showed distinct GII.4 variants in 3 of 13 patients (23%). The viral mutation rates were variable between patients but did not differ between various immune status groups. All within-host GII.4 viral populations showed amino acid changes at blocking epitopes over time, and the majority of VP1 amino acid mutations were located at the capsid surface. Conclusions: This study found viruses in immunocompromised hosts that are genetically distinct from viruses circulating in the general population, and these patients therefore may contain a reservoir for newly emerging strains. Future studies need to determine whether these new strains are of risk to other immunocompromised patients and the general population.