Predicting successful intended vaginal delivery after previous caesarean section: external validation of two predictive models in a Dutch nationwide registration-based cohort with a high intended vaginal delivery rate.

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate two models from the USA (entry-to-care [ETC] and close-to-delivery [CTD]) that predict successful intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for the Dutch population. DESIGN: A nationwide registration-based cohort study. SETTING: Seventeen hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Seven hundred and sixty-three pregnant women, each with one previous caesarean section and a viable singleton cephalic pregnancy without a contraindication for an intended VBAC. METHODS: The ETC model comprises the variables maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, previous vaginal delivery, previous VBAC and previous nonprogressive labour. The CTD model replaces prepregnancy BMI with third-trimester BMI and adds estimated gestational age at delivery, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, cervical examination and induction of labour. We included consecutive medical records of eligible women who delivered in 2010. For validation, individual probabilities of women who had an intended VBAC were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discriminative performance was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and predictive performance was assessed with calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic. RESULTS: Five hundred and fifteen (67%) of the 763 women had an intended VBAC; 72% of these (371) had an actual VBAC. The AUCs of the ETC and CTD models were 68% (95% CI 63-72%) and 72% (95% CI 67-76%), respectively. The H-L statistic showed a P-value of 0.167 for the ETC model and P = 0.356 for the CTD model, indicating no lack of fit. CONCLUSION: External validation of two predictive models developed in the USA revealed an adequate performance within the Dutch population.

Vaginal birth after a caesarean section: the development of a Western European population-based prediction model for deliveries at term.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a model that predicts the outcome of an intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for a Western European population that can be used to personalise counselling for deliveries at term. DESIGN: Registration-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five university teaching hospitals, seven non-university teaching hospitals, and five non-university non-teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: A cohort of 515 women with a history of one caesarean section and a viable singleton pregnancy, without a contraindication for intended VBAC, who delivered at term. METHODS: Potential predictors for a vaginal delivery after caesarean section were chosen based on literature and expert opinions. We internally validated the prediction model using bootstrapping techniques. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictors for VBAC. For model validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative capacity and calibration-per-risk-quantile for accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 371 out of 515 women had a VBAC (72%). Variables included in the model were: estimated fetal weight greater than the 90(th) percentile in the third trimester; previous non-progressive labour; previous vaginal delivery; induction of labour; pre-pregnancy body mass index; and ethnicity. The AUC was 71% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 69-73%), indicating a good discriminative ability. The calibration plot shows that the predicted probabilities are well calibrated, especially from 65% up, which accounts for 77% of the total study population. CONCLUSION: We developed an appropriate Western European population-based prediction model that is aimed to personalise counselling for term deliveries.

Abnormal bone turnover in long-standing Crohn's disease in remission.

BACKGROUND: A high prevalence of osteoporosis is found in patients with Crohn's disease. The pathogenesis of this condition seems to be multifactorial and its pathophysiology is still not completely understood. AIM: To elucidate the pathophysiology of osteopenia in quiescent Crohn's disease. METHODS: Bone turnover was studied in 26 patients (13 males and 13 females) with long-standing quiescent Crohn's disease and small bowel involvement. Bone mineral density was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Biochemical markers for bone formation (osteocalcin and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase) and for bone resorption (deoxypyridinoline and collagen type I C-terminal crosslinks) were measured. Urinary calcium excretion was determined. RESULTS: Markers for bone formation were significantly lower in patients than in controls (osteocalcin: P= 0.027, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase: P < 0.001), but both bone resorption markers were not significantly different. Urine calcium excretion was significantly decreased in patients (P=0.002) compared to controls. Bone mineral density of the lumbar spine was significantly and inversely correlated with bone-specific alkaline phosphatase and collagen type I C-terminal crosslinks. CONCLUSIONS: Bone turnover in long-standing Crohn's disease in clinical remission is characterized by suppressed bone formation and normal bone resorption. Urine calcium excretion is decreased. Hence, interventions and therapy should be directed towards the improvement of bone formation.

Antibacterial effect of garlic and omeprazole on Helicobacter pylori.

The antibacterial effect of a home-made raw garlic extract and commercial garlic tablets alone and in combination with antibiotics or omeprazole was determined against clinical isolates of Helicobacter pylori. MIC values of raw garlic extract and three types of commercial garlic tablets ranged from 10,000 to 17,500 mg/L. When MIC values of the commercial tablets were based on the allicin content, no differences between the three types were observed. The combination of garlic and omeprazole, studied with killing curves, showed a synergic effect which was concentration dependent. Further clinical evaluation of garlic in combination with the conventional agents for H. pylori treatment seems warranted.