Farm size limits agriculture's poverty reduction potential in Eastern India even with irrigation-led intensification.

CONTEXT: Millions of people living in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) of India engage in agriculture to support their livelihoods yet are income poor, and food and climate insecure. To address these challenges, policymakers and development programs invest in irrigation-led agricultural intensification. However, the evidence for agricultural intensification to lift farmers' incomes above the poverty line remains largely anecdotal. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study is to use a large household survey (n = 15,572; rice: 8244, wheat: 7328; 2017/18) to assess the link between agricultural intensification and personal daily incomes from farming (FPDI) in the rice-wheat systems of the EGP - the dominant cropping system of the region. METHODS: We use the Intensification Benefit Index (IBI), a measure that relates farm size and household size to FPDI, to assess how daily incomes from rice-wheat production change with irrigation-led intensification across the EGP. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Relative to the international poverty line of 1.90 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)$ day-1 and accounting for variations in HH size in the analysis, we found that small farm sizes limit the potential for agricultural intensification from irrigation to transform the poverty status of households in the bottom three quartiles of the IBI. The estimated median FPDI of households with intensified systems in the bottom three quartiles is only 0.51 PPP$ day-1 (a 0.15 PPP$ gain). The median FPDI increases to 2.10 PPP$ day-1 for households in the upper quartile of the IBI distribution (a 0.30 PPP$ gain). Irrigation-led agricultural intensification of rice-wheat systems in the EGP may provide substantial benefits for resilience to climatic change and food security but achieving meaningful poverty reduction will require complementary investments. SIGNIFICANCE: Transforming the poverty status of most smallholder farmers in the EGP requires diversified portfolios of rural on- and off-farm income-generating opportunities. While bolstering food- and climate security, agronomic intervention programs should consider smallholders' limited monetary incentives to invest in intensification. Irrigation-led agricultural intensification programs and policies should explicitly account for the heterogeneity in household resources, irrigation levels, and degree of dependence on agricultural income.

Food security under water scarcity: a comparative analysis of Egypt and Jordan.

Although there seems enough water available for our global food needs, there are large areas with growing water scarcity. Food security in these water scarce areas cannot be met through self-sufficiency. The only option is to become more dependent on food imports which is increasingly risky due to volatility in production and food prices. Before 2008, declining food prices and increasing global cereal production favoured the food import strategy. The 2008 world food crisis represented a shock to this strategy and renewed attention was paid to the self-sufficiency strategy. The aim of this paper is to compare the food security strategies of Egypt and Jordan, two water-stressed, increasingly populated, oil-poor countries, pre and post 2008, by means of a food-water analytical framework using FAOSTAT data. Findings show that Egypt and Jordan have many similarities in their food security situation as both are highly dependent on food imports (Egypt 50%, Jordan 95%), and both have a reduced capacity to absorb future price increases. As food imports are inevitable under the water scarce context of Egypt and Jordan, it is important to focus on how to cope with volatilities. Our analysis shows that Jordan has better absorbed the costs of rising food imports than Egypt and that Egypt is trapped by its high domestic cereal production. Having revealed the limited options available to water-scarce countries for food security, we discuss the potential of grain reserves to cope with future price hikes and production shocks. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01310-y.

SDG indicator 6.4.1 "change in water use efficiency over time": Methodological flaws and suggestions for improvement.

Sustainable Development Goal indicator 6.4.1 is defined as the change in water use efficiency over time and measured as the change in the ratio of gross economic value added by irrigated agriculture, industry and the services sector to the volume of water withdrawn over time. The rationale behind this indicator is to decouple a country's economic growth from its water use. Yet, this unwittingly results in an economic distortion of the water balance, favouring increased water withdrawal in service of higher water-use efficiency, at the expense of environmental sustainability. This paper discusses three methodological flaws. First, aggregation of only economic values across all sectors ignores social and environmental values and is very sensitive to changes in the relative water use by agriculture versus industry and services. Second, the economic value derived from agriculture and from imports cannot in fact be decoupled from agricultural water use. Third, the indicator completely ignores the effects of diminished return flows to the environment due to increased re-use of water. A novel alternative, disaggregated WUE approach is therefore proposed, which links water consumption to the water balance. It is defined as the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agriculture combined with water consumption (ETa) by rainfed and irrigated agriculture per area based on earth observation data. It is measured as the change in the ratio of gross economic value added by irrigated and rainfed agriculture to the volume of water consumed by rainfed and irrigated agriculture over time. This approach is more consistent and objective, while being methodologically, hydrologically and environmentally sound. It acknowledges the coupling of economic growth and water depletion, and the need to strike a balance between opportunities for economic growth and environmental sustainability. This better serves the full breadth of the water and sanitation goal as defined in SDG 6.

Social-ecological analysis of timely rice planting in Eastern India.

Timely crop planting is a foundation for climate-resilient rice-wheat systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains-a global food insecurity and poverty hotspot. We hypothesize that the capacity of individual farmers to plant on time varies considerably, shaped by multifaceted enabling factors and constraints that are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, two complementary datasets were used to characterize drivers and decision processes that govern the timing of rice planting in this region. The first dataset was a large agricultural management survey (rice-wheat: n = 15,245; of which rice: n = 7597) from a broad geographic region that was analyzed by machine learning methods. The second dataset was a discussion-based survey (n = 112) from a more limited geography that we analyzed with graph theory tools to elicit nuanced information on planting decisions. By combining insights from these methods, we show for the first time that differences in rice planting times are primarily shaped by ecosystem and climate factors while social factors play a prominent secondary role. Monsoon onset, surface and groundwater availability, and land type determine village-scale mean planting times whereas, for resource-constrained farmers who tend to plant later ceteris paribus, planting is further influenced by access to farm machinery, seed, fertilizer, and labor. Also, a critical threshold for economically efficient pumping appears at a groundwater depth of around 4.5 m; below this depth, farmers do not irrigate and delay planting. Without collective action to spread risk through synchronous timely planting, ecosystem factors such as threats posed by pests and wild animals may further deter early planting by individual farmers. Accordingly, we propose a three-pronged strategy that combines targeted strengthening of agricultural input chains, agroadvisory development, and coordinated rice planting and wildlife conservation to support climate-resilient agricultural development in the Eastern Gangetic Plains.

Questioning triple rice intensification on the Vietnamese mekong delta floodplains: An environmental and economic analysis of current land-use trends and alternatives.

Large areas of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta floodplains (VMDF) are protected by high dikes to facilitate three rice crops per year. While this has increased rice production, there is evidence that triple rice systems have negative long-term effects, both environmental and economic. Double rice cropping, or other alternatives, may be more advantageous. We analyzed the costs and benefits of intensive rice systems over time and compared these with alternatives farming systems, based on data collected via field surveys and interviews with farmers in two provinces in the VMDF. Results show that farmers in areas with dikes high enough for triple rice production incurred rising production costs over time. Production costs were 58%-91% higher in high-dike, triple crop areas, than in low-dike double rice crop areas. Higher production costs are mainly the result of increased fertilizer and pesticide use. Profitability of triple rice farming systems was initially 57% more compared to double crop systems. After about 15 years, however, triple rice farmers earned only 6% more than double crop counterparts. Our results indicate that alternative farming systems, such as rice combined with vegetables, fisheries or other flood-based livelihood, could offer greater benefits than intensive rice monocultures. Importantly, these higher benefits can be obtained without the environmental costs and impact currently endured across the delta with triple rice cultivation in high dikes.