Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability.

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.

Northeast Yucatan hurricane activity during the Maya Classic and Postclassic periods.

The collapse of the Maya civilization in the late 1st/early 2nd millennium CE has been attributed to multiple internal and external causes including overpopulation, increased warfare, and environmental deterioration. Yet the role hurricanes may have played in the fracturing of Maya socio-political networks, site abandonment, and cultural reconfiguration remains unexplored. Here we present a 2200 yearlong hurricane record developed from sediment recovered from a flooded cenote on the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. The sediment archive contains fine grain autogenic carbonate interspersed with anomalous deposits of coarse carbonate material that we interpret as evidence of local hurricane activity. This interpretation is supported by the correlation between the multi-decadal distribution of recent coarse beds and the temporal distribution of modern regional landfalling storms. In total, this record allows us to reconstruct the variable hurricane conditions impacting the northern lowland Maya during the Late Preclassic, Classic, and Postclassic Periods. Strikingly, persistent above-average hurricane frequency between ~ 700 and 1450 CE encompasses the Maya Terminal Classic Phase, the declines of Chichén Itza, Cobá, and subsequent rise and fall of the Mayapán Confederacy. This suggests that hurricanes may have posed an additional environmental stressor necessary of consideration when examining the Postclassic transformation of northern Maya polities.

Human arrival and landscape dynamics in the northern Bahamas.

The first Caribbean settlers were Amerindians from South America. Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, the final islands colonized in the northernmost Bahamas, were inhabited by the Lucayans when Europeans arrived. The timing of Lucayan arrival in the northern Bahamas has been uncertain because direct archaeological evidence is limited. We document Lucayan arrival on Great Abaco Island through a detailed record of vegetation, fire, and landscape dynamics based on proxy data from Blackwood Sinkhole. From about 3,000 to 1,000 y ago, forests dominated by hardwoods and palms were resilient to the effects of hurricanes and cooling sea surface temperatures. The arrival of Lucayans by about 830 CE (2σ range: 720 to 920 CE) is demarcated by increased burning and followed by landscape disturbance and a time-transgressive shift from hardwoods and palms to the modern pine forest. Considering that Lucayan settlements in the southern Bahamian archipelago are dated to about 750 CE (2σ range: 600 to 900 CE), these results demonstrate that Lucayans spread rapidly through the archipelago in less than 100 y. Although precontact landscapes would have been influenced by storms and climatic trends, the most pronounced changes follow more directly from landscape burning and ecosystem shifts after Lucayan arrival. The pine forests of Abaco declined substantially between 1500 and 1670 CE, a period of increased regional hurricane activity, coupled with fires on an already human-impacted landscape. Any future intensification of hurricane activity in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean threatens the sustainability of modern pine forests in the northern Bahamas.

Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE.

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.

Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (The Bahamas) over the last 700 years.

The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (< 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.

Development of anchialine cave habitats and karst subterranean estuaries since the last ice age.

Extinction models generally predict that coastal and neritic fauna benefit during sea-level rise (transgression), whereas sea-level retreat (regression) diminishes their suitable habitat area and promotes evolutionary bottlenecks. Sea-level change also impacts terrestrial island biogeography, but it remains a challenge to evidence how sea-level rise impacts aquatic island biogeography, especially in the subterranean realm. Karst subterranean estuaries (KSEs) occur globally on carbonate islands and platforms, and they are populated by globally-dispersed, ancient ecosystems (termed anchialine). Anchialine fauna currently exhibit a disjunct biogeography that cannot be completely explained by plate tectonic-imposed vicariance. Here we provide evidence that anchialine ecosystems can experience evolutionary bottlenecks caused by habitat reduction during transgression events. Marine-adapted anchialine fauna benefit from habitat expansion during transgressions, but fresh- and brackish-adapted fauna must emigrate, evolve to accommodate local habitat changes, or are regionally eliminated. Phanerozoic transgressions relative to long-term changes in subsidence and relief of regional lithology must be considered for explaining biogeography, evolution, local extirpation or complete extinction of anchialine fauna. Despite the omission of this entire category of environments and animals in climate change risk assessments, the results indicate that anchialine fauna on low-lying islands and platforms that depend upon meteoric groundwater are vulnerable to habitat changes caused by 21st century sea-level rise.

The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin.

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

Thecamoebians (Testate Amoebae) Straddling the Permian-Triassic Boundary in the Guryul Ravine Section, India: Evolutionary and Palaeoecological Implications.

Exceptionally well-preserved organic remains of thecamoebians (testate amoebae) were preserved in marine sediments that straddle the greatest extinction event in the Phanerozoic: the Permian-Triassic Boundary. Outcrops from the Late Permian Zewan Formation and the Early Triassic Khunamuh Formation are represented by a complete sedimentary sequence at the Guryul Ravine Section in Kashmir, India, which is an archetypal Permian-Triassic boundary sequence. Previous biostratigraphic analysis provides chronological control for the section, and a perspective of faunal turnover in the brachiopods, ammonoids, bivalves, conodonts, gastropods and foraminifera. Thecamoebians were concentrated from bulk sediments using palynological procedures, which isolated the organic constituents of preserved thecamoebian tests. The recovered individuals demonstrate exceptional similarity to the modern thecamoebian families Centropyxidae, Arcellidae, Hyalospheniidae and Trigonopyxidae, however, the vast majority belong to the Centropyxidae. This study further confirms the morphologic stability of the thecamoebian lineages through the Phanerozoic, and most importantly, their apparent little response to an infamous biological crisis in Earth's history.