Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable.

Identification, definition and quantification of goods and services provided by marine biodiversity: implications for the ecosystem approach.

This paper identifies and defines ecosystem goods and services provided by marine biodiversity. Case studies have been used to provide an insight into the practical issues associated with the assessment of marine ecosystem goods and services at specific locations. The aim of this research was to validate the definitions of goods and services, and to identify knowledge gaps and likely difficulties of quantifying the goods and services. A validated theoretical framework for the assessment of goods and services is detailed, and examples of the goods and services at a variety of case study areas are documented. These results will enable future assessments of marine ecosystem goods and services. It is concluded that the utilisation of this goods and services approach has the capacity to play a fundamental role in the Ecosystem Approach, by enabling the pressures and demands of society, the economy and the environment to be integrated into environmental management.

Cost-effective emission abatement in europe considering interrelations in agriculture.

Agriculture is an important source of ammonia (NH3), which contributes to acidification and eutrophication, as well as emissions of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Controlling emissions of one of these pollutants through application of technical measures might have an impact (either beneficial or adverse) on emissions of the others. These side effects are usually ignored in policy making. This study analyses cost-effectiveness of measures to reduce acidification and eutrophication as well as agricultural emissions of N2O and CH4 in Europe, taking into account interrelations between abatement of NH3, N2O, and CH4 in agriculture. The model used is based on the RAINS (Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation) model for air pollution in Europe, which includes emissions, abatement options, and atmospheric source-receptor relationships for pollutants contributing to acidification and eutrophication. We used an optimisation model that is largely based on the RAINS model but that also includes emissions of N2O and CH4 from agriculture and technical measures to reduce these emissions. For abatement options for agricultural emissions we estimated side effects on other emissions. The model determines abatement strategies to meet restrictions on emission and/or deposition levels at the least cost. Cost-effective strategies to reduce acidification and eutrophication in Europe were analysed. We found that NH3 abatement may cause an increase in N2O emissions. If total agricultural N2O and CH4 emissions in Europe were not allowed to increase, cost-effective allocation of emission reductions over countries in Europe changed considerably.

The economics of transboundary air pollution in Europe.

Acid rain is causing substantial damage in all Eastern and Western European countries. This article presents a stepwise linear optimisation model, that places transboundary air pollution by SO2 and NOx in a game theoretical framework. The national authorities of 28 countries are perceived as players in a game in which they can choose optimal strategies. It is illustrated that optimal national abatement programmes may be far from optimal if considered from an international point of view. Several scenarios are discussed, including a reference case, full cooperation, Pareto optimality and a critical loads approach. The need for international cooperation and regional differentiation of abatement programmes is emphasised.