Dynamics of Intestinal Carriage of Extended-Spectrum Beta-lactamase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae in the Dutch General Population, 2014-2016.

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, the prevalence of intestinal extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) carriage in community-dwelling subjects is ~5%. Little is known about the dynamics of ESBL-E carriage. METHODS: In a nationwide, population-based study (2014-2016) with 4177 community-dwelling subjects, fecal samples from 656 subjects were collected after 1 (time point [T] = 1) and 6 (T = 2) months. The growth of ESBL-E was quantified and a whole-genome sequence analysis was performed. Subjects were categorized as either an incidental, short-term, or long-term carrier or as a noncarrier. Risk factors were determined by random forest models and logistic regression. The transmissibility and duration of ESBL-E carriage was quantified using a transmission model, which also incorporated previous study data. RESULTS: Out of 656 participants, 96 were ESBL-E carriers at T = 0. Of these, 66 (10.1%) subjects were incidental carriers, 22 (3.3%) were short-term carriers, and 38 (5.8%) were long-term carriers; the remaining 530 (80.8%) were noncarriers. The risk factors for long-term carriage were travelling to Asia, swimming in a sea/ocean, and not changing the kitchen towel daily. The log-transformed colony forming units ratio at T = 0 was predictive for ESBL-E carriage at T = 1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.6) and T = 2 (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4). Model simulations revealed a median decolonization rate of 2.83/year, an average duration of carriage of 0.35 years, and an acquisition rate of 0.34/year. The trend of the acquisition rate during the study period was close to 0. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for long-term ESBL-E carriage were travel- and hygiene-related. The dynamics of ESBL-E carriage in the general Dutch population are characterized by balancing decolonization and acquisition rates.

Prevalence, risk factors and genetic characterisation of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E and CPE): a community-based cross-sectional study, the Netherlands, 2014 to 2016.

BackgroundThe epidemiology of carriage of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing (ESBL-E) and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in the general population is unknown.AimIn this observational study, the prevalence and risk factors for intestinal ESBL-E and CPE carriage in the Dutch general population were determined. ESBL-E were characterised.MethodsFrom 2014 to 2016, ca 2,000 residents were invited monthly to complete a questionnaire and provide a faecal sample, which was tested for ESBL-E. The first 1,758 samples were also tested for CPE. Risk factors for ESBL-E carriage were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. ESBL-E isolates underwent whole genome sequencing.ResultsOf 47,957 individuals invited, 4,177 (8.7%) completed the questionnaire and provided a faecal sample. ESBL-E were detected in 186 (4.5%) individuals, resulting in an adjusted prevalence of 5.0% (95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-6.6%). Risk factors were: born outside the Netherlands (odds ratio (OR): 1.99; 95% CI: 1.16-4.54), eating in restaurants > 20 times/year (OR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.04-2.76), antibiotic use < 6 months ago (OR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.05-4.03), swimming in sea/ocean < 12 months ago (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.11-2.39), travelling to Africa (OR: 3.03; 95% CI: 1.23-7.46) or Asia (OR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.02-3.90) < 12 months ago, and not changing kitchen towels daily (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.24-3.87). The last had the largest population attributable risk (PAR) (47.5%). Eighty-four of 189 (44.4%) ESBL-E isolates carried bla CTX-M-15. Escherichia coli isolates belonged to 70 different sequence types (ST)s, of which ST131 (42/178 isolates; 23.6%) was most prevalent. Associations were observed between IncFIA plasmids and ST131 and bla CTX-M-27, and between IncI1 and ST88 and bla CTX-M-1. No CPE were detected.ConclusionsThe prevalence of ESBL-E carriage in the Netherlands' community-dwelling population is 5.0%. Identified risk factors were mostly travelling (particularly to Asia and Africa) and kitchen hygiene. CPE were not detected.

Attributable sources of community-acquired carriage of Escherichia coli containing ß-lactam antibiotic resistance genes: a population-based modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC), plasmid-mediated AmpC-producing E coli (pAmpC-EC), and other bacteria are resistant to important ß-lactam antibiotics. ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC are increasingly reported in animals, food, the environment, and community-acquired and health-care-associated human infections. These infections are usually preceded by asymptomatic carriage, for which attributions to animal, food, environmental, and human sources remain unquantified. METHODS: In this population-based modelling study, we collected ESBL and pAmpC gene data on the Netherlands population for 2005-17 from published datasets of gene occurrences in E coli isolates from different sources, and from partners of the ESBL Attribution Consortium and the Dutch National Antimicrobial Surveillance System. Using these data, we applied an established source attribution model based on ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC prevalence and gene data for humans, including high-risk populations (ie, returning travellers, clinical patients, farmers), farm and companion animals, food, surface freshwater, and wild birds, and human exposure data, to quantify the overall and gene-specific attributable sources of community-acquired ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC intestinal carriage. We also used a simple transmission model to determine the basic reproduction number (R0) in the open community. FINDINGS: We identified 1220 occurrences of ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC genes in humans, of which 478 were in clinical patients, 454 were from asymptomatic carriers in the open community, 103 were in poultry and pig farmers, and 185 were in people who had travelled out of the region. We also identified 6275 occurrences in non-human sources, including 479 in companion animals, 4026 in farm animals, 66 in wild birds, 1430 from food products, and 274 from surface freshwater. Most community-acquired ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC carriage was attributed to human-to-human transmission within or between households in the open community (60·1%, 95% credible interval 40·0-73·5), and to secondary transmission from high-risk groups (6·9%, 4·1-9·2). Food accounted for 18·9% (7·0-38·3) of carriage, companion animals for 7·9% (1·4-19·9), farm animals (non-occupational contact) for 3·6% (0·6-9·9), and swimming in freshwater and wild birds (ie, environmental contact) for 2·6% (0·2-8·7). We derived an R0 of 0·63 (95% CI 0·42-0·77) for intracommunity transmission. INTERPRETATION: Although humans are the main source of community-acquired ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC carriage, the attributable non-human sources underpin the need for longitudinal studies and continuous monitoring, because intracommunity ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC spread alone is unlikely to be self-maintaining without transmission to and from non-human sources. FUNDING: 1Health4Food, Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the EU's Horizon-2020 through One-Health European Joint Programme.

Incidence and economic burden of community-acquired gastroenteritis in the Netherlands: Does having children in the household make a difference?

This study aimed at estimating gastroenteritis (GE) incidence in all age groups of the Netherlands' general population, with special emphasis on the role of children in GE burden, and the associated costs. Monthly from November 2014 to November 2016, a random sample of 2000 residents in the Netherlands was invited to complete a questionnaire on household characteristics and health complaints. We calculated GE incidence rates standardized to the Dutch population and used multivariable logistic regression models to identify potential risk factors. We calculated the costs related to resources used within the healthcare sector, the resources used by patients and their families, and productivity losses (paid worktime) due to GE. The overall standardized incidence rate was 0.81 GE episodes/person-year, with the highest rate in children ≤4 years (1.96 episodes/person-year). GE was observed more often in households with children (≤17 years), especially if children attended out-of-home childcare services, and among individuals with non-native Dutch ethnic background. Less GE was observed among employed persons aged 25-64 years, compared with those unemployed, but the opposite was observed in persons ≥65 years. The average costs per GE episode was €191, resulting in €945 million annual total costs for GE in the Netherlands (€55 per inhabitant). The majority of costs (55%) were attributable to productivity losses of the ill or their caregivers. In conclusion, GE still poses a significant burden, particularly in preschool children and adults living in households with children. Similar to other industrialized countries, the major factor driving the costs due to GE was the loss of productivity. This study also provides up-to-date baseline GE incidence rates and associated societal costs to better contextualize the burden of the disease in support of policy making.

"Sickenin' in the rain" - increased risk of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections after urban pluvial flooding in a population-based cross-sectional study in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to increase the chance of extreme rainfall events in the Northern Hemisphere and herewith, there is an increased chance of urban pluvial flooding. Urban pluvial flooding often consists of street flooding and/or flooding of combined sewerage systems, leading to contamination of the floodwater with several gastrointestinal and/or respiratory pathogens. An increase in flooding events therefore pose a health risk to those exposed to urban floodwater. We studied the association between exposure to pluvial floodwater and acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and acute respiratory infection (ARI). METHODS: We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional survey during the summer of 2015 in 60 locations in the Netherlands with reported flooding. Two weeks after the flooding, questionnaires were sent to households in these locations, collecting data on self-reported AGE and ARI and information on floodwater exposure in the previous 2 weeks. Multivariable generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression models, accounting for the clustered data structure, were used to identify risk factors for AGE and ARI. RESULTS: In total, 699 households with 1,656 participants (response rate 21%) returned the questionnaire. Contact with floodwater was significantly associated with AGE (aOR 4.2, 95%CI 2.1-8.4) and ARI (aOR 3.3, 95%CI 2.0-5.4). Risk factors for AGE were skin contact with floodwater (aOR 4.0, 95%CI 1.8-9.0), performing post-flooding cleaning operations (aOR 8.6, 95%CI 3.5-20.9) and cycling through floodwater (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 1.0-5.0). Skin contact with floodwater (aOR 3.6, 95%CI 1.9-6.9) and performing post-flooding cleaning operations (aOR 5.5, 95%CI 3.0-10.3) were identified as risk factors for ARI. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest an association between direct exposure to pluvial floodwater and AGE and ARI. As it is predicted that the frequency of pluvial flooding events will increase in the future, there is a need for flood-proof solutions in urban development and increased awareness among stakeholders and the public about the potential health risks. Future prospective studies are recommended to confirm our results.

Accounting for long-term manifestations of Cryptosporidium spp infection in burden of disease and cost-of-illness estimations, the Netherlands (2013-2017).

BACKGROUND: Burden of disease (BoD) estimations are increasingly used to prioritize public health interventions. Previous Cryptosporidium BoD models accounted only for acute episodes, while there is increasing evidence of long-term manifestations. Our objective was to update Cryptosporidium BoD and cost-of-illness (COI) models and to estimate BoD and COI for the Netherlands in years 2013-2017. METHODS: We performed a scoping literature review and drew an outcome tree including long-term manifestations for which sufficient evidence was found, such as recurrent diarrhea and joint pain. We chose the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) metric to synthesize years of life lost due mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability due to non-fatal outcomes (YLDs). For the costs, we adopted a societal perspective accounting for direct healthcare costs, patient costs and productivity losses. Uncertainty was managed using Latin Hypercube sampling (30,000 iterations). RESULTS: In the Netherlands in 2017, we estimated 50,000 Cryptosporidium cases (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15,000-102,000), 7,000 GP visits, 300 hospitalizations and 3 deaths, resulting in 137 DALYs (95%UI: 54-255) and €19.2 million COI (95%UI: €7.2 million- €36.2 million). Estimates were highest for 2016 (218 DALYs and €31.1 million in COI), and lowest in 2013 (100 DALYs and €13.8 million in COI). Most of the BoD was attributable to YLD (≈80% of DALYs). The most important cost was productivity losses (≈90% of total COI). Long-term manifestations, including recurring diarrhea and joint pain, accounted for 9% of the total DALYs and 7% of the total COI. CONCLUSION: Current evidence supports the inclusion of long-term manifestations in Cryptosporidium models, which contribute close to 10% of the total DALYs and costs. This may be an underestimation, as we were conservative in our assumptions. Cryptosporidium should be considered a priority organism with respect to public health surveillance, even in industrialized countries with high hygiene standards.

A case-control study into risk factors for acute hepatitis E in the Netherlands, 2015-2017.

OBJECTIVES: A case-control study was performed (2015-2017) to identify risk factors for acute hepatitis E in the Netherlands. METHODS: A questionnaire on potential sources of hepatitis E virus (HEV) exposure, health and socio-demographics was completed by 376 patients with acute hepatitis E, and 1534 controls matched for age, gender and region of residence. RESULTS: Traditional Dutch dry raw sausages of pork muscle meat, called "cervelaat", "snijworst", and "boerenmetworst" were reported by 72% of the patients, and 46% of controls (aOR 3.0; 95%CI 2.2-4.1), with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 48%. Direct contact with pigs and working with a septic tank were strong risk factors (aOR 3.1; 95%CI 1.3-7.3 and aOR 6.9; 95%CI 1.2-40.8, respectively), with a low PAF (2% and 1%, respectively). Host risk factors were pre-existing liver disease (aOR 3.8; 95%CI 2.0-7.1), diabetes (aOR 2.1; 95%CI 1.4-3.2), immunosuppressive medication (aOR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5-4.1), and gastric acid inhibitors (aOR 2.3; 95%CI 1.7-3.1). CONCLUSIONS: Dry raw pork sausages were the major source of HEV infection among our study population. The prevalence and cause of HEV contamination in these pork muscle meat products require further investigation. Infrequently reported, yet strong risk factors were contact with pigs, or a septic tank.

Risk Factors for Sporadic Cryptosporidiosis in the Netherlands: Analysis of a 3-Year Population Based Case-Control Study Coupled With Genotyping, 2013-2016.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, cryptosporidiosis cases increased in the Netherlands, but no single source was identified. In April 2013, we began a 3-year population-based case-control study coupled with genotyping to identify risk factors for sporadic cryptosporidiosis. METHODS: Cryptosporidium cases were laboratory confirmed (by microscopy or polymerase chain reaction), and the species (ie, C. hominis or C. parvum) was determined. We analyzed data by study year, combined and by species. We performed single-variable analysis, and variables with a P value of ≤ .10 were included in a multivariable logistic regression model adjusting for age, sex, and season. RESULTS: The study included 609 cases and 1548 frequency-matched controls. C. parvum was the predominant species in the first 2 study years, shifting to C. hominis in the third year. Household person-to-person transmission and eating barbequed food were strongly associated with being a case. Eating tomatoes was negatively associated. When the analysis was stratified by study year, person-to-person transmission was an independent risk factor. Analysis by species identified different risk factors for cases infected with C. parvum and C. hominis. CONCLUSION: This was the first case-control study examining risk factors for sporadic cryptosporidiosis in the Netherlands. Providing information about Cryptosporidium exposure during outdoor activities and improvements in hygiene within households could prevent future sporadic infections.

Immune response-eliciting exposure to Campylobacter vastly exceeds the incidence of clinically overt campylobacteriosis but is associated with similar risk factors: A nationwide serosurvey in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate population-level exposure to Campylobacter and associated risk factors, using three approaches for serological data analysis. METHODS: Nationwide, population-based serosurvey in the Netherlands (Feb 2006-Jun 2007). Anti-Campylobacter IgG, IgM and IgA were measured using ELISA, and analysed via: a) seroincidence estimation, using reference values of antibody peak levels and decay rates over-time after Campylobacter exposure; b) two normal distributions of true positives/negatives fitted to the IgG distribution to derive seroprevalence and individual probability of being positive/negative; and c) IgG levels. Risk factors were analysed using multiple linear regressions. RESULTS: From 1559 respondents, seroincidence was estimated at 1.61 infections/person-year (95%CI:1.58-1.64) and seroprevalence at 68.1% (65.4-70.9). The three approaches identified similar risk factors, although seroincidence had higher power and results were interpretable as risk: seroincidence was higher in females [exp(b) = 1.07(1.04-1.11)], older ages [vs. 15-34 years; for < 5, 5-14, 35-54 and 55-70 years: 0.60(0.58-0.63), 0.74(0.71-0.78), 1.08(1.03-1.13) and 1.08(1.01-1.16), respectively], non-Dutch background [Moroccan/Turkish: 1.25(1.14-1.37); Caribbean: 1.14(1.03-1.25)], low socioeconomic status [1.05(1.01-1.10)], traveling outside Europe [1.05(1.01-1.09)], and eating undercooked meat [1.04(1.01-1.08)]. CONCLUSION: Campylobacter exposure is much higher than clinical infection rates, but risk factors are similar to those previously described.Seroincidence is a powerful measure to study Campylobacter epidemiology, and is preferred over other methods.

Risk factors for hepatitis E virus seropositivity in Dutch blood donors.

BACKGROUND: A marked increase of hepatitis E cases has recently been observed in the Netherlands. Causes of the (re-)emergence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) and exact sources and routes of transmission of HEV infection are currently unknown. We aimed to identify risk factors for HEV seropositivity. METHODS: Using the Wantai EIA, 2100 plasma samples of blood donors from all over the Netherlands aged 18-70 years were tested for anti-HEV IgG antibodies. A questionnaire on socio-demographic characteristics, health, and potential risk factors for HEV exposure was sent to these participants. RESULTS: The overall IgG-seroprevalence was 31% (648/2100) and increased with age. Several food products were independently associated with IgG-seropositivity in a multivariate analysis adjusting for age and gender among 1562 participants who completed the questionnaire: traditional Dutch dry raw sausages called "cervelaat", "fijnkost", "salami" and "salametti" which are generally made from raw pork and beef (aOR 1.5; 95%CI 1.2-1.9), frequent consumption of bovine steak (aOR 1.3; 95%CI 1.0-1.7), and frequent consumption of smoked beef (aOR 1.3 95%CI 1.0-1.7). Although not frequently reported, contact with contaminated water was also a risk factor for seropositivity (aOR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5-4.4). Lower seroprevalence was associated with eating raspberries, going out for dinner, and contact with wild animals and dogs. CONCLUSION: Several pork food products, mainly dry raw sausages, and contact with contaminated water were associated with past HEV infection in the Netherlands. Further investigation is needed into the prevalence and infectivity of HEV in these risk factor food products, as well as investigation of the production methods and possible origin of HEV-contamination within these sausages, e.g. very small amounts of pork liver, pig-derived blood products as food additive, or the pork muscle tissue.

High Prevalence of Intra-Familial Co-colonization by Extended-Spectrum Cephalosporin Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in Preschool Children and Their Parents in Dutch Households.

Extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ESCR) Enterobacteriaceae pose a serious infection control challenge for public health. The emergence of the ESCR phenotype is mostly facilitated by plasmid-mediated horizontal extended-spectrum ß-lactamases (ESBLs) and AmpC gene transfer within Enterobacteriaceae. Current data regarding the plasmid contribution to this emergence within the Dutch human population is limited. Hence, the aim of this study was to gain insight into the role of plasmids in the dissemination of ESBL/AmpC genes inside Dutch households with preschool children and precisely delineate co-colonization. In 87 ESCREnterobacteriaceae from fecal samples of parents and preschool children within 66 Dutch households, genomic localization, plasmid type and insertion sequences linked to ESBL/AmpC genes were determined. Chromosomal location of ESBL/AmpC genes was confirmed when needed. An epidemiologically relevant subset of the isolates based on household co-carriage was assessed by Multilocus Sequence Typing and Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis for genetic relatedness. The narrow-host range I1α and F plasmids were the major facilitators of ESBL/AmpC-gene dissemination. Interestingly, we documented a relatively high occurrence of chromosomal integration of typically plasmid-encoded ESBL/AmpC-genes. A high diversity of non-epidemic Escherichia coli sequence types (STs) was revealed; the predominant STs belonged to the pandemic lineages of extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli ST131 and ST69. Intra-familiar co-carriage by identical ESCREnterobacteriaceae was documented in 7 households compared to 14 based on sole gene typing, as previously reported. Co-carriage was more frequent than expected based on pure chance, suggesting clonal transmission between children and parents within the household.

New paradigms for Salmonella source attribution based on microbial subtyping.

Microbial subtyping is the most common approach for Salmonella source attribution. Typically, attributions are computed using frequency-matching models like the Dutch and Danish models based on phenotyping data (serotyping, phage-typing, and antimicrobial resistance profiling). Herewith, we critically review three major paradigms facing Salmonella source attribution today: (i) the use of genotyping data, particularly Multi-Locus Variable Number of Tandem Repeats Analysis (MLVA), which is replacing traditional Salmonella phenotyping beyond serotyping; (ii) the integration of case-control data into source attribution to improve risk factor identification/characterization; (iii) the investigation of non-food sources, as attributions tend to focus on foods of animal origin only. Population genetics models or simplified MLVA schemes may provide feasible options for source attribution, although there is a strong need to explore novel modelling options as we move towards whole-genome sequencing as the standard. Classical case-control studies are enhanced by incorporating source attribution results, as individuals acquiring salmonellosis from different sources have different associated risk factors. Thus, the more such analyses are performed the better Salmonella epidemiology will be understood. Reparametrizing current models allows for inclusion of sources like reptiles, the study of which improves our understanding of Salmonella epidemiology beyond food to tackle the pathogen in a more holistic way.

Molecular relatedness of ESBL/AmpC-producing Escherichia coli from humans, animals, food and the environment: a pooled analysis.

Background: In recent years, ESBL/AmpC-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL/AmpC-EC) have been isolated with increasing frequency from animals, food, environmental sources and humans. With incomplete and scattered evidence, the contribution to the human carriage burden from these reservoirs remains unclear. Objectives: To quantify molecular similarities between different reservoirs as a first step towards risk attribution. Methods: Pooled data on ESBL/AmpC-EC isolates were recovered from 35 studies in the Netherlands comprising >27 000 samples, mostly obtained between 2005 and 2015. Frequency distributions of ESBL/AmpC genes from 5808 isolates and replicons of ESBL/AmpC-carrying plasmids from 812 isolates were compared across 22 reservoirs through proportional similarity indices (PSIs) and principal component analyses (PCAs). Results: Predominant ESBL/AmpC genes were identified in each reservoir. PCAs and PSIs revealed close human-animal ESBL/AmpC gene similarity between human farming communities and their animals (broilers and pigs) (PSIs from 0.8 to 0.9). Isolates from people in the general population had higher similarities to those from human clinical settings, surface and sewage water and wild birds (0.7-0.8), while similarities to livestock or food reservoirs were lower (0.3-0.6). Based on rarefaction curves, people in the general population had more diversity in ESBL/AmpC genes and plasmid replicon types than those in other reservoirs. Conclusions: Our 'One Health' approach provides an integrated evaluation of the molecular relatedness of ESBL/AmpC-EC from numerous sources. The analysis showed distinguishable ESBL/AmpC-EC transmission cycles in different hosts and failed to demonstrate a close epidemiological linkage of ESBL/AmpC genes and plasmid replicon types between livestock farms and people in the general population.

Surveillance perspective on Lyme borreliosis across the European Union and European Economic Area.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in Europe. Erythema migrans (EM), an early, localised skin rash, is its most common presentation. Dissemination of the bacteria can lead to more severe manifestations including skin, neurological, cardiac, musculoskeletal and ocular manifestations. Comparison of LB incidence rates in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) and Balkan countries are difficult in the absence of standardised surveillance and reporting procedures. We explored six surveillance scenarios for LB surveillance in the EU/EEA, based on the following key indicators: (i) erythema migrans, (ii) neuroborreliosis, (iii) all human LB manifestations, (iv) seroprevalence, (v) tick bites, and (vi) infected ticks and reservoir hosts. In our opinion, neuroborreliosis seems most feasible and useful as the standard key indicator, being one of the most frequent severe LB manifestations, with the possibility of a specific case definition. Additional surveillance with erythema migrans as key indicator would add value to the surveillance of neuroborreliosis and lead to a more complete picture of LB epidemiology in the EU/EEA. The other scenarios have less value as a basis for EU-level surveillance, but can be considered periodically and locally, as they could supply complementary insights.

Predicting the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, using a structural equation model.

BACKGROUND: Understanding and quantification of the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can aid development of prevention strategies against Lyme borreliosis. METHODS: We used 3,525 single tick bite reports from three large prospective studies on the transmission risk of tick-borne pathogens to humans, with 50 reports of Lyme borreliosis during the follow-up period, among 1,973 reports with known outcome. A structural equation model was applied to estimate the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, and quantify the influence of: developmental stage of the tick, detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick by PCR, tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and patient age. RESULTS: The overall risk of developing Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite was 2.6% (95%CI 1.4-5.1). The risk increased with: - Tick engorgement: 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.3%) for low engorgement to 5.5% (95%CI 2.8%-9.2%) for substantially engorged ticks;- Rising patient-estimated tick attachment duration: 2.0% (95%CI 1.3%-2.8%) after <12 hours, to 5.2% (95%CI 3.0%-8.9%) after ≥4 days;- Detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in ticks: 6.7% (95%CI 3.6%-13.5%), versus 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.9%) when ticks tested negative.The highest observed risk of Lyme borreliosis was 14.4% (95%CI 6.8%-24.6%) after one tick bite of a substantially engorged tick that tested positive for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA, which corresponds to one new case of Lyme borreliosis per 7 (95%CI 4-15) of such tick bites. CONCLUSIONS: An individual's risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can be predicted with tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick.

Risk factors for gastroenteritis associated with canal swimming in two cities in the Netherlands during the summer of 2015: A prospective study.

Urban canal swimming events are popular in the Netherlands. In 2015, two city canal swimming events took place, in Utrecht (Utrecht Singel Swim, USS) and in Amsterdam (Amsterdam City Swim, ACS). This prospective study characterizes the health risks associated with swimming in urban waters. Online questionnaires were sent to 160 (USS) and 2,692 (ACS) participants, with relatives of participants who did not swim completing the questionnaire as a control. Swimming water specimens and stool specimens of diarrheic participants in the ACS group were analysed. A total of 49% of USS and 51% of ACS swimmers returned their questionnaires. Nine percent of USS swimmers and 4% of non-swimmers reported gastrointestinal complaints (aRR 2.1; 95% CI: 0.3-16), while a total of 31% of ACS swimmers and 5% of non-swimmers reported gastrointestinal complaints (aRR 6.3; 95% CI: 4.1-9.5). AGI risk among ACS participants was directly related to increasing number of mouthfuls of water swallowed. Various norovirus genotypes were detected in five out of seven stool specimens taken from ACS participants and in all three tested ACS water samples. We conclude that the AGI risk among open-water swimmers in urban areas depends on the circumstances around the event. The epidemiological curve, the statistical association between swimming and AGI, and the microbiological evidence for norovirus in stool and water specimens suggest that AGI outbreak after the ACS event was due to water contamination by multiple norovirus strains, which is possibly linked to sewage overflow due to prior heavy rainfall. There is need for more targeted preventive measurements and recommendations for organizers, municipal authorities and participants to prevent this reoccurring in the future.

The cost of Lyme borreliosis.

Background: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most frequently reported tick-borne infection in Europe and North America. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-of-illness of LB in the Netherlands. We used available incidence estimates from 2010 for tick bite consultations and three symptomatic LB outcomes: erythema migrans (EM), disseminated LB and Lyme-related persisting symptoms. The cost was estimated using these incidences and the average cost per patient as derived from a patient questionnaire. We estimated the cost from a societal perspective, including healthcare cost, patient cost and production loss, using the friction cost method and a 4% annual discount rate. Tick bites and LB in 2010 led to a societal cost of €19.3 million (95% CI 15.6-23.4; 16.6 million population) for the Netherlands. Healthcare cost and production loss each constituted 48% of the total cost (€9.3 and €9.2 million/year), and patient cost 4% (€0.8 million/year). Of the total cost, 37% was related to disseminated LB, followed by 27% for persisting symptoms, 22% for tick bites and 14% for EM. Per outcome, for an individual case the mean cost of disseminated LB and Lyme-related persisting symptoms was both around €5700; for EM and GP consultations for tick bites this was €122 and €53. As an alternative to the friction cost method, the human capital method resulted in a total cost of €23.5 million/year. LB leads to a substantial societal cost. Further research should therefore focus on additional preventive interventions.

The economic burden of a Salmonella Thompson outbreak caused by smoked salmon in the Netherlands, 2012-2013.

Background: In 2012, the Netherlands experienced the most extensive food-related outbreak of Salmonella ever recorded. It was caused by smoked salmon contaminated with Salmonella Thompson during processing. In total, 1149 cases of salmonellosis were laboratory confirmed and reported to RIVM. Twenty percent of cases was hospitalised and four cases were reported to be fatal. The purpose of this study was to estimate total costs of the Salmonella Thompson outbreak. Methods: Data from a case-control study were used to estimate the cost-of-illness of reported cases (i.e. healthcare costs, patient costs and production losses). Outbreak control costs were estimated based on interviews with staff from health authorities. Using the Dutch foodborne disease burden and cost-of-illness model, we estimated the number of underestimated cases and the associated cost-of-illness. Results: The estimated number of cases, including reported and underestimated cases was 21 123. Adjusted for underestimation, the total cost-of-illness would be €6.8 million (95% CI €2.5-€16.7 million) with productivity losses being the main cost driver. Adding outbreak control costs, the total outbreak costs are estimated at €7.5 million. Conclusion: In the Netherlands, measures are taken to reduce salmonella concentrations in food, but detection of contamination during food processing remains difficult. As shown, Salmonella outbreaks have the potential for a relatively high disease and economic burden for society. Early warning and close cooperation between the industry, health authorities and laboratories is essential for rapid detection, control of outbreaks, and to reduce disease and economic burden.

Molecular Detection of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Humans with Tick Bites and Erythema Migrans, in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne diseases are the most prevalent vector-borne diseases in Europe. Knowledge on the incidence and clinical presentation of other tick-borne diseases than Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis is minimal, despite the high human exposure to these pathogens through tick bites. Using molecular detection techniques, the frequency of tick-borne infections after exposure through tick bites was estimated. METHODS: Ticks, blood samples and questionnaires on health status were collected from patients that visited their general practitioner with a tick bite or erythema migrans in 2007 and 2008. The presence of several tick-borne pathogens in 314 ticks and 626 blood samples of this cohort were analyzed using PCR-based methods. Using multivariate logistic regression, associations were explored between pathogens detected in blood and self-reported symptoms at enrolment and during a three-month follow-up period. RESULTS: Half of the ticks removed from humans tested positive for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis, Rickettsia helvetica, Rickettsia monacensis, Borrelia miyamotoi and several Babesia species. Among 92 Borrelia burgdorferi s. l. positive ticks, 33% carried another pathogen from a different genus. In blood of sixteen out of 626 persons with tick bites or erythema migrans, DNA was detected from Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis (n = 7), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (n = 5), Babesia divergens (n = 3), Borrelia miyamotoi (n = 1) and Borrelia burgdorferi s. l. (n = 1). None of these sixteen individuals reported any overt symptoms that would indicate a corresponding illness during the three-month follow-up period. No associations were found between the presence of pathogen DNA in blood and; self-reported symptoms, with pathogen DNA in the corresponding ticks (n = 8), reported tick attachment duration, tick engorgement, or antibiotic treatment at enrolment. CONCLUSIONS: Based on molecular detection techniques, the probability of infection with a tick-borne pathogen other than Lyme spirochetes after a tick bite is roughly 2.4%, in the Netherlands. Similarly, among patients with erythema migrans, the probability of a co-infection with another tick-borne pathogen is approximately 2.7%. How often these infections cause disease symptoms or to what extend co-infections affect the course of Lyme borreliosis needs further investigations.

Increase in reptile-associated human salmonellosis and shift toward adulthood in the age groups at risk, the Netherlands, 1985 to 2014.

While the contribution of the main food-related sources to human salmonellosis is well documented, knowledge on the contribution of reptiles is limited. We quantified and examined trends in reptile-associated salmonellosis in the Netherlands during a 30-year period, from 1985 to 2014. Using source attribution analysis, we estimated that 2% (95% confidence interval: 1.3-2.8) of all sporadic/domestic human salmonellosis cases reported in the Netherlands during the study period (n = 63,718) originated from reptiles. The estimated annual fraction of reptile-associated salmonellosis cases ranged from a minimum of 0.3% (corresponding to 11 cases) in 1988 to a maximum of 9.3% (93 cases) in 2013. There was a significant increasing trend in reptile-associated salmonellosis cases (+ 19% annually) and a shift towards adulthood in the age groups at highest risk, while the proportion of reptile-associated salmonellosis cases among those up to four years-old decreased by 4% annually and the proportion of cases aged 45 to 74 years increased by 20% annually. We hypothesise that these findings may be the effect of the increased number and variety of reptiles that are kept as pets, calling for further attention to the issue of safe reptile-human interaction and for reinforced hygiene recommendations for reptile owners.