The dominating influence of efficacy above management strategy in the long-term success of alien plant clearing programmes.

Conservation managers are required to make decisions in complex and uncertain contexts. To strengthen the robustness of conservation decisions, several approaches have been proposed to facilitate stakeholder engagement in the setting of conservation objectives and priority actions. While such processes have led to the formulation of several invasive alien plant management strategies to achieve specific objectives, the long-term consequences and trade-offs inherent in these strategies have not been tested. The performance of five of these strategies over 50 years was tested in the protected area context using empirical data from Table Mountain National Park, South Africa. A simulation model based on data for invasive Acacia species in a fire-driven ecosystem, focused on the interaction between strategy performance and clearing efficacy in achieving a management goal or reducing Acacia density to below 1 plant per hectare. At near perfect levels of clearing efficacy, all strategies converged towards reaching the management goal, while at lower efficacy levels the strategies diverged in their ability to achieve desired outcomes. Despite working across the largest area, strategies that focussed on clearing low density invasions, maintained the least area in a maintenance state over time. In contrast, strategies that focussed on a mix of post-fire, low density areas and high altitude areas cleared less area annually, but maintained a much larger area in a maintenance state. At higher levels of efficacy, strategies that return to previously worked areas were more successful than a post-fire strategy. Strategies that focused solely on securing water, performed poorly in maintaining low overall density of aliens. However, the influence of efficacy was significant and substantial and a much larger difference in area reaching the management goal was achieved by varying efficacy than varying strategy. As such, improving quality of work and implementation will have a far greater effect than which areas are prioritized or how this prioritization is done. While acacias are likely to persist in the long-term, improving work quality coupled with correct strategy selection will ensure continued gains in the area under maintenance and improved return on investment over time.

Investigating the effects of management practice on mammalian co-occurrence along the West Coast of South Africa.

The subtle and cascading effects (e.g., altered interspecific interactions) that anthropogenic stressors have on local ecological assemblages often go unnoticed but are concerning given their importance in ecosystem function. For example, elimination of buffalo from the Serengeti National Park is suggested to have driven increased abundance of smaller antelope as a result of release from competition. The perceived low abundance of small antelope in the contractual Postberg section of the West Coast National Park (the park) has been an ongoing management concern which has been anecdotally attributed to predation by a mesopredator (the caracal, Caracal caracal). However, we hypothesized that the historical overstocking, and consequent overgrazing by larger-bodied managed ungulates would influence small antelope abundance. Using camera traps, we investigated species co-occurrence and temporal activity between small antelope, managed ungulates and caracals in Postberg as well as another part of the park (Langebaan) and a farm outside of the park. Results suggest that small antelope and managed ungulates have a high degree of temporal overlap (Δ = 0.74, 0.79 and 0.86 for the farm, Langebaan and Postberg respectively), while temporal partitioning between small antelope and caracal is apparent (Δ = 0.59). Further, small antelope and managed ungulates appear to occur independently of one another (SIF = 0.91-1 across areas). Managed ungulates were detected almost three times more frequently on fallow lands when compared to the more vegetated sites within the park suggesting that segregated food/cover resources allow for independent occurrence. Small antelope had a much higher probability of occurrence outside of the protected area (e.g., ψ = 0.192 and 0.486 for steenbok at Postberg, Langebaan compared to 0.841 on the farm), likely due to less variable (more intact) habitat outside of the protected area. There is not sufficient evidence to currently warrant management intervention for predators. The small size of the protected area provides limited scope for spatial replication thus reducing possibilities to infer the cause and effect for complex interactions (which would historically have taken place over much larger areas) with negative implications for adaptive management. We recommend continued monitoring over multiple seasons and a wider area to determine the spatial information requirements to inform management of small protected areas.

Scenarios for the management of invasive Acacia species in a protected area: Implications of clearing efficacy.

In many protected areas in South Africa, invasive Australian Acacia species pose on-going management challenges, perpetuating high long-term management costs. Due to limited availability of resources, conservation actions need to be prioritised within and across Protected Areas (PA). We draw on comprehensive datasets spanning over 20 years from the Table Mountain National Park to model long-term outcomes of clearing Acacia species at different levels of management clearing efficacy. We test a 50 year outlook based on current and 38 incremental levels of management efficacy, ranging from 5 to 100%, to assess under which scenarios a management goal of reducing Acacia density to below 1 plant per hectare for the 22,671 ha protected area is achieved. With the current clearing resources and maximum clearing efficacy (100% control), it would take between 32 and 42 years to attain the management goal. The modelling revealed two main drivers of Acacia persistence. Firstly, germination of seeds added to the seedbank from standing plants made a significantly larger contribution to future clearing requirements than fire stimulated seed germination or the existing (pre-management) seedbank. Secondly the relationship between the number of hectares and management units that could be treated and the efficacy of the treatment was non-linear. When clearing efficacy was decreased from 100% to the current project minimum target of 80% efficacy, the goal was not achieved in all areas, but the area that reached a density of <1 plant per hectare was significantly reduced to 53% of the PA for the simulated 50 years. Results emphasize the need to differentiate between increasing financial resources and increasing efficacy. While increasing financial resources allows for increased effort, this is of little value for Acacia management in the absence of an increase in clearing efficacy, as low quality implementation perpetuates the need for large budgets over time. Conversely, improving efficacy allows for decreased budget requirements over time, allowing fund re-direction to additional areas of alien species management such as the early detection and rapid control of newly introduced species.

A taxonomically and geographically constrained information base limits non-native reptile and amphibian risk assessment: a systematic review.

For many taxa, new records of non-native introductions globally occur at a near exponential rate. We undertook a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on non-native herpetofauna, to assess the information base available for assessing risks of future invasions, resulting in 836 relevant papers. The taxonomic and geographic scope of the literature was also compared to a published database of all known invasions globally. We found 1,116 species of herpetofauna, 95% of which were present in fewer than 12 studies. Nearly all literature on the invasion ecology of herpetofauna has appeared since 2000, with a strong focus on frogs (58%), particularly cane toads (Rhinella marina) and their impacts in Australia. While fewer papers have been published on turtles and snakes, proportionately more species from both these groups have been studied than for frogs. Within each herpetofaunal group, there are a handful of well-studied species: R. marina, Lithobates catesbeianus, Xenopus laevis, Trachemys scripta, Boiga irregularis and Anolis sagrei. Most research (416 papers; 50%) has addressed impacts, with far fewer studies on aspects like trade (2%). Besides Australia (213 studies), most countries have little location-specific peer-reviewed literature on non-native herpetofauna (on average 1.1 papers per established species). Other exceptions were Guam, the UK, China, California and France, but even their publication coverage across established species was not even. New methods for assessing and prioritizing invasive species such as the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa provide useful frameworks for risk assessment, but require robust species-level studies. Global initiatives, similar to the Global Amphibian Assessment, using the species and taxonomic groups identified here, are needed to derive the level of information across broad geographic ranges required to apply these frameworks. Expansive studies on model species can be used to indicate productive research foci for understudied taxa.

The roles of climate, phylogenetic relatedness, introduction effort, and reproductive traits in the establishment of non-native reptiles and amphibians.

We developed a method to predict the potential of non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna) to establish populations. This method may inform efforts to prevent the introduction of invasive non-native species. We used boosted regression trees to determine whether nine variables influence establishment success of introduced herpetofauna in California and Florida. We used an independent data set to assess model performance. Propagule pressure was the variable most strongly associated with establishment success. Species with short juvenile periods and species with phylogenetically more distant relatives in regional biotas were more likely to establish than species that start breeding later and those that have close relatives. Average climate match (the similarity of climate between native and non-native range) and life form were also important. Frogs and lizards were the taxonomic groups most likely to establish, whereas a much lower proportion of snakes and turtles established. We used results from our best model to compile a spreadsheet-based model for easy use and interpretation. Probability scores obtained from the spreadsheet model were strongly correlated with establishment success as were probabilities predicted for independent data by the boosted regression tree model. However, the error rate for predictions made with independent data was much higher than with cross validation using training data. This difference in predictive power does not preclude use of the model to assess the probability of establishment of herpetofauna because (1) the independent data had no information for two variables (meaning the full predictive capacity of the model could not be realized) and (2) the model structure is consistent with the recent literature on the primary determinants of establishment success for herpetofauna. It may still be difficult to predict the establishment probability of poorly studied taxa, but it is clear that non-native species (especially lizards and frogs) that mature early and come from environments similar to that of the introduction region have the highest probability of establishment.

A quantitative climate-match score for risk-assessment screening of reptile and amphibian introductions.

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.