A Systematic Analysis of the Clinical Outcome Associated with Multiple Reclassified Desmosomal Gene Variants in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Patients.

The presence of multiple pathogenic variants in desmosomal genes (DSC2, DSG2, DSP, JUP, and PKP2) in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) has been linked to a severe phenotype. However, the pathogenicity of variants is reclassified frequently, which may result in a changed clinical risk prediction. Here, we present the collection, reclassification, and clinical outcome correlation for the largest series of ARVC patients carrying multiple desmosomal pathogenic variants to date (n = 331). After reclassification, only 29% of patients remained carriers of two (likely) pathogenic variants. They reached the composite endpoint (ventricular arrhythmias, heart failure, and death) significantly earlier than patients with one or no remaining reclassified variant (hazard ratios of 1.9 and 1.8, respectively). Periodic reclassification of variants contributes to more accurate risk stratification and subsequent clinical management strategy. Graphical Abstract.

A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.3% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).

Clinical Characteristics and Follow-Up of Pediatric-Onset Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to describe characteristics, cascade screening results, and predictors of adverse outcome in pediatric-onset arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). BACKGROUND: Although ARVC is increasingly recognized in children, pediatric ARVC cohorts remain underrepresented in the literature. METHODS: This study included 12 probands with pediatric-onset ARVC (aged <18 years at diagnosis) and 68 pediatric relatives (aged <18 years at first evaluation) referred for cascade screening. ARVC diagnosis was based on 2010 Task Force Criteria. Clinical presentation, diagnostic testing, and outcomes (sustained ventricular tachycardia [VT]; heart failure) were ascertained. Predictors of adverse outcome were determined by using univariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Pediatric-onset ARVC was diagnosed in 12 probands and 12 (18%) relatives at a median age of 16.6 years (interquartile range: 13.8-17.4 years), whereas 12 (18%) relatives reached ARVC diagnosis as adults (median age, 22.0 years; interquartile range: 20.0-26.7 years). Sudden cardiac death/arrest was the first disease manifestation in 3 (25%) probands and 3 (4%) relatives. In patients without ARVC diagnosis at presentation (n = 61), electrocardiogram and Holter monitoring abnormalities occurred before development of imaging Task Force Criteria (7.3 ± 5.0 years vs 8.4 ± 5.0 years). Clinical course was characterized by sustained VT (91%) and heart failure (36%) in probands, which were rare in relatives (2% and 0%, respectively). Male sex (P < 0.01), T-wave inversion V1-V3 (P < 0.01), premature ventricular complexes/runs (P ≤ 0.01), and decrease in biventricular ejection fraction (P ≤ 0.01) were associated with VT occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric ARVC carries high arrhythmic risk, especially in probands. Disease progression is particularly observed on electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring. Arrhythmic events are associated with male sex, T-wave inversions, premature ventricular complexes/runs, and reduced biventricular ejection fraction.

Modeling the His-Purkinje Effect in Non-invasive Estimation of Endocardial and Epicardial Ventricular Activation.

Inverse electrocardiography (iECG) estimates epi- and endocardial electrical activity from body surface potentials maps (BSPM). In individuals at risk for cardiomyopathy, non-invasive estimation of normal ventricular activation may provide valuable information to aid risk stratification to prevent sudden cardiac death. However, multiple simultaneous activation wavefronts initiated by the His-Purkinje system, severely complicate iECG. To improve the estimation of normal ventricular activation, the iECG method should accurately mimic the effect of the His-Purkinje system, which is not taken into account in the previously published multi-focal iECG. Therefore, we introduce the novel multi-wave iECG method and report on its performance. Multi-wave iECG and multi-focal iECG were tested in four patients undergoing invasive electro-anatomical mapping during normal ventricular activation. In each subject, 67-electrode BSPM were recorded and used as input for both iECG methods. The iECG and invasive local activation timing (LAT) maps were compared. Median epicardial inter-map correlation coefficient (CC) between invasive LAT maps and estimated multi-wave iECG versus multi-focal iECG was 0.61 versus 0.31. Endocardial inter-map CC was 0.54 respectively 0.22. Modeling the His-Purkinje system resulted in a physiologically realistic and robust non-invasive estimation of normal ventricular activation, which might enable the early detection of cardiac disease during normal sinus rhythm.

Comparing clinical performance of current implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation recommendations in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) patients have an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias (VA). Four implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) recommendation algorithms are available The International Task Force Consensus ('ITFC'), an ITFC modification by Orgeron et al. ('mITFC'), the AHA/HRS/ACC guideline for VA management ('AHA'), and the HRS expert consensus statement ('HRS'). This study aims to validate and compare the performance of these algorithms in ARVC. METHODS AND RESULTS: We classified 617 definite ARVC patients (38.5 ± 15.1 years, 52.4% male, 39.2% prior sustained VA) according to four algorithms. Clinical performance was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, ROC-analysis, and decision curve analysis for any sustained VA and for fast VA (>250 b.p.m.). During 6.4 [2.8-11.5] years follow-up, 282 (45.7%) patients experienced any sustained VA, and 63 (10.2%) fast VA. For any sustained VA, ITFC and mITFC provide higher sensitivity than AHA and HRS (94.0-97.8% vs. 76.7-83.5%), but lower specificity (15.9-32.0% vs. 42.7%-60.1%). Similarly, for fast VA, ITFC and mITFC provide higher sensitivity than AHA and HRS (95.2-97.1% vs. 76.7-78.4%) but lower specificity (42.7-43.1 vs. 76.7-78.4%). Decision curve analysis showed ITFC and mITFC to be superior for a 5-year sustained VA risk ICD indication threshold between 5-25% or 2-9% for fast VA. CONCLUSION: The ITFC and mITFC provide the highest protection rates, whereas AHA and HRS decrease unnecessary ICD placements. ITFC or mITFC should be used if we consider the 5-year threshold for ICD indication to lie within 5-25% for sustained VA or 2-9% for fast VA. These data will inform decision-making for ICD placement in ARVC.

Comparing Non-invasive Inverse Electrocardiography With Invasive Endocardial and Epicardial Electroanatomical Mapping During Sinus Rhythm.

This study presents a novel non-invasive equivalent dipole layer (EDL) based inverse electrocardiography (iECG) technique which estimates both endocardial and epicardial ventricular activation sequences. We aimed to quantitatively compare our iECG approach with invasive electro-anatomical mapping (EAM) during sinus rhythm with the objective of enabling functional substrate imaging and sudden cardiac death risk stratification in patients with cardiomyopathy. Thirteen patients (77% males, 48 ± 20 years old) referred for endocardial and epicardial EAM underwent 67-electrode body surface potential mapping and CT imaging. The EDL-based iECG approach was improved by mimicking the effects of the His-Purkinje system on ventricular activation. EAM local activation timing (LAT) maps were compared with iECG-LAT maps using absolute differences and Pearson's correlation coefficient, reported as mean ± standard deviation [95% confidence interval]. The correlation coefficient between iECG-LAT maps and EAM was 0.54 ± 0.19 [0.49-0.59] for epicardial activation, 0.50 ± 0.27 [0.41-0.58] for right ventricular endocardial activation and 0.44 ± 0.29 [0.32-0.56] for left ventricular endocardial activation. The absolute difference in timing between iECG maps and EAM was 17.4 ± 7.2 ms for epicardial maps, 19.5 ± 7.7 ms for right ventricular endocardial maps, 27.9 ± 8.7 ms for left ventricular endocardial maps. The absolute distance between right ventricular endocardial breakthrough sites was 30 ± 16 mm and 31 ± 17 mm for the left ventricle. The absolute distance for latest epicardial activation was median 12.8 [IQR: 2.9-29.3] mm. This first in-human quantitative comparison of iECG and invasive LAT-maps on both the endocardial and epicardial surface during sinus rhythm showed improved agreement, although with considerable absolute difference and moderate correlation coefficient. Non-invasive iECG requires further refinements to facilitate clinical implementation and risk stratification.

Discovering and Visualizing Disease-Specific Electrocardiogram Features Using Deep Learning: Proof-of-Concept in Phospholamban Gene Mutation Carriers.

BACKGROUND: ECG interpretation requires expertise and is mostly based on physician recognition of specific patterns, which may be challenging in rare cardiac diseases. Deep neural networks (DNNs) can discover complex features in ECGs and may facilitate the detection of novel features which possibly play a pathophysiological role in relatively unknown diseases. Using a cohort of PLN (phospholamban) p.Arg14del mutation carriers, we aimed to investigate whether a novel DNN-based approach can identify established ECG features, but moreover, we aimed to expand our knowledge on novel ECG features in these patients. METHODS: A DNN was developed on 12-lead median beat ECGs of 69 patients and 1380 matched controls and independently evaluated on 17 patients and 340 controls. Differentiating features were visualized using Guided Gradient Class Activation Mapping++. Novel ECG features were tested for their diagnostic value by adding them to a logistic regression model including established ECG features. RESULTS: The DNN showed excellent discriminatory performance with a c-statistic of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91-0.99) and sensitivity and specificity of 0.82 and 0.93, respectively. Visualizations revealed established ECG features (low QRS voltages and T-wave inversions), specified these features (eg, R- and T-wave attenuation in V2/V3) and identified novel PLN-specific ECG features (eg, increased PR-duration). The logistic regression baseline model improved significantly when augmented with the identified features (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A DNN-based feature detection approach was able to discover and visualize disease-specific ECG features in PLN mutation carriers and revealed yet unidentified features. This novel approach may help advance diagnostic capabilities in daily practice.

Follow-up after hemodynamically not tolerated ventricular tachycardia in patients with midrange reduced to normal ejection fraction: A retrospective single-centre case series.

INTRODUCTION: The benefit of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation in patients with hemodynamically not tolerated ventricular tachycardia (VT) and midrange reduced to normal ejection fraction (LVEF >35%) is currently unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate follow-up after hemodynamically not tolerated VT in patients with LVEF >35%. In addition, we aimed to find possible predictive factors to identify who will benefit from ICD implantation. METHODS: In a retrospective single-centre case series, all patients with hemodynamically not tolerated VT and LVEF >35% that underwent electrophysiological study (EPS) and/or radiofrequency VT ablation were included. RESULTS: Forty-two patients (5 women, median age 68 years) with hemodynamically not tolerated VT and LVEF >35% underwent EPS. VT ablation was performed in thirty-one patients, which was considered successful in twenty-three patients. Nineteen patients had an ICD at discharge while 23 patients were discharged without an ICD. The severity of hemodynamic compromise, LVEF and ablation success played an important role in the decision-making for ICD implantation. Six patients (14.3%) had recurrence of VT, all hemodynamically tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: In this small case series, patients with hemodynamically not tolerated VT and LVEF >35% had a relatively low recurrence rate and all recurrences were nonfatal. Based on our results, we hypothesize that the severity of hemodynamic compromise, LVEF and ablation success might modify the risk for VA recurrence. A prospective study to determine the prognostic value of these factors in patients with hemodynamically not tolerated VT and LVEF >35% is necessary.

A head-to-head comparison of speckle tracking echocardiography and feature tracking cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in right ventricular deformation.

AIMS: Speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) and feature tracking cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (FT-CMR) are advanced imaging techniques which are both used for quantification of global and regional myocardial strain. Direct comparisons of STE and FT-CMR regarding right ventricular (RV) strain analysis are limited. We aimed to study clinical performance, correlation and agreement of RV strain by these techniques, using arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) as a model for RV disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 110 subjects, including 34 patients with definite ARVC, 30 preclinical relatives of ARVC patients, and 46 healthy control subjects. Global and regional RV longitudinal peak strain (PS) were measured by STE and FT-CMR. Both modalities showed reduced strain values in ARVC patients compared to ARVC relatives (STE global PS: P < 0.001; FT-CMR global PS: P < 0.001) and reduced strain values in ARVC relatives compared to healthy control subjects (STE global PS: P = 0.042; FT-CMR global PS: P = 0.084). There was a moderate, albeit significant correlation between RV strain values obtained by STE and FT-CMR [global PS r = 0.578 (95% confidence interval 0.427-0.697), P < 0.001]. Agreement between the techniques was weak (limits of agreement for global PS: ±11.8%). Correlation and agreement both deteriorated when regional strain was studied. CONCLUSION: RV STE and FT-CMR show a similar trend within the spectrum of ARVC and have significant correlation, but inter-modality agreement is weak. STE and FT-CMR may therefore both individually have added value for assessment of RV function, but RV PS values obtained by these techniques currently cannot be used interchangeably in clinical practice.

Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Multinational Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). A model was recently developed to predict incident sustained VA in patients with ARVC. However, since this outcome may overestimate the risk for SCD, we aimed to specifically predict life-threatening VA (LTVA) as a closer surrogate for SCD. METHODS: We assembled a retrospective cohort of definite ARVC cases from 15 centers in North America and Europe. Association of 8 prespecified clinical predictors with LTVA (SCD, aborted SCD, sustained, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia >250 beats per minute) in follow-up was assessed by Cox regression with backward selection. Candidate variables included age, sex, prior sustained VA (≥30s, hemodynamically unstable, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia; or aborted SCD), syncope, 24-hour premature ventricular complexes count, the number of anterior and inferior leads with T-wave inversion, left and right ventricular ejection fraction. The resulting model was internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 864 patients with definite ARVC (40±16 years; 53% male) were included. Over 5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77-10.58) of follow-up, 93 (10.8%) patients experienced LTVA including 15 with SCD/aborted SCD (1.7%). Of the 8 prespecified clinical predictors, only 4 (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) were associated with LTVA. Notably, prior sustained VA did not predict subsequent LTVA (P=0.850). A model including only these 4 predictors had an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) and calibration slope of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) indicating minimal over-optimism. CONCLUSIONS: LTVA events in patients with ARVC can be predicted by a novel simple prediction model using only 4 clinical predictors. Prior sustained VA and the extent of functional heart disease are not associated with subsequent LTVA events.

Automatic Triage of 12-Lead ECGs Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.

BACKGROUND The correct interpretation of the ECG is pivotal for the accurate diagnosis of many cardiac abnormalities, and conventional computerized interpretation has not been able to reach physician-level accuracy in detecting (acute) cardiac abnormalities. This study aims to develop and validate a deep neural network for comprehensive automated ECG triage in daily practice. METHODS AND RESULTS We developed a 37-layer convolutional residual deep neural network on a data set of free-text physician-annotated 12-lead ECGs. The deep neural network was trained on a data set with 336.835 recordings from 142.040 patients and validated on an independent validation data set (n=984), annotated by a panel of 5 cardiologists electrophysiologists. The 12-lead ECGs were acquired in all noncardiology departments of the University Medical Center Utrecht. The algorithm learned to classify these ECGs into the following 4 triage categories: normal, abnormal not acute, subacute, and acute. Discriminative performance is presented with overall and category-specific concordance statistics, polytomous discrimination indexes, sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values. The patients in the validation data set had a mean age of 60.4 years and 54.3% were men. The deep neural network showed excellent overall discrimination with an overall concordance statistic of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.95) and a polytomous discriminatory index of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79-0.87). CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates that an end-to-end deep neural network can be accurately trained on unstructured free-text physician annotations and used to consistently triage 12-lead ECGs. When further fine-tuned with other clinical outcomes and externally validated in clinical practice, the demonstrated deep learning-based ECG interpretation can potentially improve time to treatment and decrease healthcare burden.

Diagnosing arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy by 2010 Task Force Criteria: clinical performance and simplified practical implementation.

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is diagnosed by a complex set of clinical tests as per 2010 Task Force Criteria (TFC). Avoiding misdiagnosis is crucial to prevent sudden cardiac death as well as unnecessary implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantations. This study aims to validate the overall performance of the TFC in a real-world cohort of patients referred for ARVC evaluation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients consecutively referred to our centres for ARVC evaluation. Patients were diagnosed by consensus of three independent clinical experts. Using this as a reference standard, diagnostic performance was measured for each individual criterion as well as the overall TFC classification. Of 407 evaluated patients (age 38 ± 17 years, 51% male), the expert panel diagnosed 66 (16%) with ARVC. The clinically observed TFC was false negative in 7/66 (11%) patients and false positive in 10/69 (14%) patients. Idiopathic outflow tract ventricular tachycardia was the most common alternative diagnosis. While the TFC performed well overall (sensitivity and specificity 92%), signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG, P = 0.43), and several family history criteria (P ≥ 0.17) failed to discriminate. Eliminating these criteria reduced false positives without increasing false negatives (net reclassification improvement 4.3%, P = 0.019). Furthermore, all ARVC patients met at least one electrocardiogram (ECG) or arrhythmia criterion (sensitivity 100%). CONCLUSION: The TFC perform well but are complex and can lead to misdiagnosis. Simplification by eliminating SAECG and several family history criteria improves diagnostic accuracy. Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy can be ruled out using ECG and arrhythmia criteria alone, hence these tests may serve as a first-line screening strategy among at-risk individuals.

Quantitative Approach to Fragmented QRS in Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy: From Disease towards Asymptomatic Carriers of Pathogenic Variants.

Fragmented QRS complexes (fQRS) are common in patients with arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM). A new method of fQRS quantification may aid early disease detection in pathogenic variant carriers and assessment of prognosis in patients with early stage ACM. Patients with definite ACM (n = 221, 66%), carriers of a pathogenic ACM-associated variant without a definite ACM diagnosis (n = 57, 17%) and control subjects (n = 58, 17%) were included. Quantitative fQRS (Q-fQRS) was defined as the total amount of deflections in the QRS complex in all 12 electrocardiography (ECG) leads. Q-fQRS was scored by a single observer and reproducibility was determined by three independent observers. Q-fQRS count was feasible with acceptable intra- and inter-observer agreement. Q-fQRS count is significantly higher in patients with definite ACM (54 ± 15) and pathogenic variant carriers (55 ± 10) compared to controls (35 ± 5) (p < 0.001). In patients with ACM, Q-fQRS was not associated with sustained ventricular arrhythmia (p = 0.701) at baseline or during follow-up (p = 0.335). Both definite ACM patients and pathogenic variant carriers not fulfilling ACM diagnosis have a higher Q-fQRS than controls. This may indicate that increased Q-fQRS is an early sign of disease penetrance. In concealed and early stages of ACM the role of Q-fQRS for risk stratification is limited.

Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Hemophilia or von Willebrand Disease.

Background Management of atrial fibrillation (AF) is complex in patients with bleeding disorders. Catheter ablation such as pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) has been suggested in cases with bleeding disorders. However, data on safety are missing. This report describes the outcome of PVI in patients with bleeding disorders. Methods A retrospective study in our hemophilia treatment center of patients who underwent a PVI in 2014 to 2018. PVI was done according to local protocol. Clotting factor was given periprocedural. Postprocedural anticoagulation was given for at least 4 weeks, with clotting factor suppletion if needed to maintain factor VIII (FVIII) levels >0.20 IU/mL. Results and Discussion Five patients with hemophilia and one with von Willebrand disease were included. Eight PVIs were performed. Target FVIII levels (>0.80 IU/mL) were met before the procedure. Postprocedural anticoagulation was given: vitamin K antagonist (VKA) or direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) dabigatran. All patients obtained long-term sinus rhythm, in two patients after a second PVI. However, late recurrent AF occurred in one patient after 42 months. A notable incidence of groin bleeds was observed: two of eight interventions (25%) compared with 0.9% in the general population. Bleeding seemed to be related to agitation, early mobilization, and bridging of VKA with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH). No relevant bleeding was observed when on DOAC therapy. Conclusion PVI seems to be effective in the case of bleeding disorders. To reduce the groin bleeds agitation and early mobilization should be avoided and DOAC is preferred over bridging VKA with LMWH.

Incidence and predictors of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy and its complications in idiopathic ventricular fibrillation patients.

AIMS: Idiopathic ventricular fibrillation (IVF) is a rare cause of sudden cardiac arrest. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation is currently the only treatment option. Limited data are available on the prevalence and complications of ICD therapy in these patients. We sought to investigate ICD therapy and its complications in patients with IVF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were selected from a national registry of IVF patients. Patients in whom no underlying diagnosis was found during follow-up were eligible for inclusion. Recurrence of ventricular arrhythmia (VA) was derived from medical and ICD records, electrogram records of ICD therapies were used to differentiate between appropriate or inappropriate interventions. Independent predictors for appropriate ICD shock were calculated using cox regression. In 217 IVF patients, recurrence of sustained VAs occurred in 66 patients (30%) during a median follow-up period of 6.1 years. Ten patients died (4.6%). Thirty-eight patients (17.5%) experienced inappropriate ICD therapy, and 32 patients (14.7%) had device-related complications. Symptoms before cardiac arrest [hazard ratio (HR): 2.51, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48-4.24], signs of conduction disease (HR: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.15-4.47), and carrier of the DPP6 risk haplotype (HR: 3.24, 1.70-6.17) were identified as independent predictors of appropriate shock occurrence. CONCLUSION: Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy is an effective treatment in IVF, treating recurrences of potentially lethal VAs in approximately one-third of patients during long-term follow-up. However, device-related complications and inappropriate shocks were also frequent. We found significant predictors for appropriate ICD therapy. This may imply that these patients require additional management to prevent recurrent events.

A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.6% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).