Towards optimal use of antithrombotic therapy of people with cancer at the end of life: A research protocol for the development and implementation of the SERENITY shared decision support tool.

BACKGROUND: Even though antithrombotic therapy has probably little or even negative effects on the well-being of people with cancer during their last year of life, deprescribing antithrombotic therapy at the end of life is rare in practice. It is often continued until death, possibly resulting in excess bleeding, an increased disease burden and higher healthcare costs. METHODS: The SERENITY consortium comprises researchers and clinicians from eight European countries with specialties in different clinical fields, epidemiology and psychology. SERENITY will use a comprehensive approach combining a realist review, flash mob research, epidemiological studies, and qualitative interviews. The results of these studies will be used in a Delphi process to reach a consensus on the optimal design of the shared decision support tool. Next, the shared decision support tool will be tested in a randomised controlled trial. A targeted implementation and dissemination plan will be developed to enable the use of the SERENITY tool across Europe, as well as its incorporation in clinical guidelines and policies. The entire project is funded by Horizon Europe. RESULTS: SERENITY will develop an information-driven shared decision support tool that will facilitate treatment decisions regarding the appropriate use of antithrombotic therapy in people with cancer at the end of life. CONCLUSIONS: We aim to develop an intervention that guides the appropriate use of antithrombotic therapy, prevents bleeding complications, and saves healthcare costs. Hopefully, usage of the tool leads to enhanced empowerment and improved quality of life and treatment satisfaction of people with advanced cancer and their care givers.

Specialist palliative care teams and characteristics related to referral rate: a national cross-sectional survey among hospitals in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Specialist palliative care teams (SPCTs) in hospitals improve quality of life and satisfaction with care for patients with advanced disease. However, referrals to SPCTs are often limited. To identify areas for improvement of SPCTs' service penetration, we explored the characteristics and level of integration of palliative care programmes and SPCTs in Dutch hospitals and we assessed the relation between these characteristics and specialist palliative care referral rates. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of a national cross-sectional survey conducted among hospitals in the Netherlands from March through May 2018. For this survey, a previously developed online questionnaire, containing 6 consensus-based integration indicators, was sent to palliative care programme leaders in all 78 hospitals. For referral rate we calculated the number of annual inpatient referrals to the SPCT as a percentage of the number of total annual hospital admissions. Referral rate was dichotomized into high (≥ third quartile) and low (< third quartile). Characteristics of SPCTs with high and low referral rate were compared using univariate analyses. P-values < 0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: In total, 63 hospitals (81%) participated in the survey, of which 62 had an operational SPCT. The palliative care programmes of these hospitals consisted of inpatient consultation services (94%), interdisciplinary staffing (61%), outpatient clinics (45%), dedicated acute care beds (21%) and community-based palliative care (27%). The median referral rate was 0.56% (IQR 0.23-1.0%), ranging from 0 to 3.7%. Comparing SPCTs with high referral rate (≥1%, n = 17) and low referral rate (< 1%, n = 45) showed significant differences for SPCTs' years of existence, staffing, their level of education, participation in other departments' team meetings, provision of education and conducting research. With regard to integration, significant differences were found for the presence of outpatient clinics and timing of referrals. CONCLUSION: In the Netherlands, palliative care programmes and specialist palliative care teams in hospitals vary in their level of integration and development, with more mature teams showing higher referral rates. Appropriate staffing, dedicated outpatient clinics, education and research appear means to improve service penetration and timing of referral for patients with advanced diseases.

Axial cortical involvement of metastatic lesions to identify impending femoral fractures; a clinical validation study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patients with advanced cancer may develop painful bone metastases, potentially resulting in pathological fractures. Adequate fracture risk assessment is of key importance to prevent fracturing and maintain mobility. This study aims to validate the clinical reliability of axial cortical involvement with a 30 mm threshold on conventional radiographs to assess fracture risk in femoral bone metastases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients with bone metastases who received radiotherapy for pain included in two multicentre prospective studies were selected. Conventional radiographs obtained at a maximum of two months prior to radiotherapy were collected. Three experts independently measured lesions and scored radiographic characteristics. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. RESULTS: Hundred patients were included with a median follow-up of 23.0 months (95%CI: 10.6-35.5). Two fractures occurred in lesions with axial cortical involvement <30 mm, and 12 in lesions ≥30 mm. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of axial cortical involvement for predicting femoral fractures were 86%, 50%, 20% and 96%, respectively. Patients with lesions ≥30 mm had a 5.3 times higher fracture risk than patients with smaller lesions. CONCLUSION: Our validation study confirmed the use of 30 mm axial cortical involvement to assess fracture risk in femoral bone metastases. Until a more accurate and practically feasible method has been developed, this clinical parameter remains an easy method to assess femoral fracture risk to aid patients and clinicians to choose the optimal individual treatment modality.

Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians?: Towards computational modelling in daily clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES: In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether patient-specific finite element (FE) models can identify patients at risk of a pathological femoral fracture resulting from metastatic bone disease, and compared these FE predictions with clinical assessments by experienced clinicians. METHODS: A total of 39 patients with non-fractured femoral metastatic lesions who were irradiated for pain were included from three radiotherapy institutes. During follow-up, nine pathological fractures occurred in seven patients. Quantitative CT-based FE models were generated for all patients. Femoral failure load was calculated and compared between the fractured and non-fractured femurs. Due to inter-scanner differences, patients were analyzed separately for the three institutes. In addition, the FE-based predictions were compared with fracture risk assessments by experienced clinicians. RESULTS: In institute 1, median failure load was significantly lower for patients who sustained a fracture than for patients with no fractures. In institutes 2 and 3, the number of patients with a fracture was too low to make a clear distinction. Fracture locations were well predicted by the FE model when compared with post-fracture radiographs. The FE model was more accurate in identifying patients with a high fracture risk compared with experienced clinicians, with a sensitivity of 89% versus 0% to 33% for clinical assessments. Specificity was 79% for the FE models versus 84% to 95% for clinical assessments. CONCLUSION: FE models can be a valuable tool to improve clinical fracture risk predictions in metastatic bone disease. Future work in a larger patient population should confirm the higher predictive power of FE models compared with current clinical guidelines.Cite this article: F. Eggermont, L. C. Derikx, N. Verdonschot, I. C. M. van der Geest, M. A. A. de Jong, A. Snyers, Y. M. van der Linden, E. Tanck. Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians? Towards computational modelling in daily clinical practice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:430-439. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.76.BJR-2017-0325.R2.

An Easy-to-Use Prognostic Model for Survival Estimation for Patients with Symptomatic Long Bone Metastases.

BACKGROUND: A survival estimation for patients with symptomatic long bone metastases (LBM) is crucial to prevent overtreatment and undertreatment. This study analyzed prognostic factors for overall survival and developed a simple, easy-to-use prognostic model. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective study of 1,520 patients treated for symptomatic LBM between 2000 and 2013 at the radiation therapy and/or orthopaedic departments was performed. Primary tumors were categorized into 3 clinical profiles (favorable, moderate, or unfavorable) according to an existing classification system. Associations between prognostic variables and overall survival were investigated using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression models. The discriminatory ability of the developed model was assessed with the Harrell C-statistic. The observed and expected survival for each survival category were compared on the basis of an external cohort. RESULTS: Median overall survival was 7.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7 to 8.1 months). On the basis of the independent prognostic factors, namely the clinical profile, Karnofsky Performance Score, and presence of visceral and/or brain metastases, 12 prognostic categories were created. The Harrell C-statistic was 0.70. A flowchart was developed to easily stratify patients. Using cutoff points for clinical decision-making, the 12 categories were narrowed down to 4 categories with clinical consequences. Median survival was 21.9 months (95% CI, 18.7 to 25.1 months), 10.5 months (95% CI, 7.9 to 13.1 months), 4.6 months (95% CI, 3.9 to 5.3 months), and 2.2 months (95% CI, 1.8 to 2.6 months) for the 4 categories. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a model to easily stratify patients with symptomatic LBM according to their expected survival. The simplicity and clarity of the model facilitate and encourage its use in the routine care of patients with LBM, to provide the most appropriate treatment for each individual patient. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

A systematic review of prognostic factors predicting survival in patients with spinal bone metastases.

PURPOSE: For the selection of treatment in patients with spinal bone metastases (SBM), survival estimation plays a crucial role to avoid over- and under-treatment. To aid clinicians in this difficult task, several prediction models have been developed, consisting of many different risk factors. The aim of this systematic review was to identify prognostic factors that are associated with survival in patients with SBM to support development of predictive models. METHODS: A systematic review was performed with focus on prognostic factors associated with survival in patients with SBM. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. A level of evidence synthesis was performed for each prognostic factor. Inter-observer agreement for the risk of bias assessment was determined by the kappa-statistic. RESULTS: After screening, 142 full-text articles were obtained, of which 22 met the eligibility criteria. A total of 43 different prognostic factors were investigated in the included studies, of which 17 were relevant to pre-treatment survival estimation. The prognostic factors most frequently associated with survival were the primary tumor and the performance status. The prognostic factors most frequently not associated with survival were age, gender, number and location of the SBM and the presence of a pathologic fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Prognostication for patients with SBM should be based on an accurate primary tumor classification, combined with a performance score. The benefit of adding other prognostic factors is doubtful.

Epidermal growth factor receptor mutations should be considered as a prognostic factor for survival of patients with pathological fractures or painful bone metastases from non-small cell lung cancer.

AIMS: This study aims to assess first, whether mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and Kirsten rat sarcoma (kRAS) genes are associated with overall survival (OS) in patients who present with symptomatic bone metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and secondly, whether mutation status should be incorporated into prognostic models that are used when deciding on the appropriate palliative treatment for symptomatic bone metastases. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied 139 patients with NSCLC treated between 2007 and 2014 for symptomatic bone metastases and whose mutation status was known. The association between mutation status and overall survival was analysed and the results applied to a recently published prognostic model to determine whether including the mutation status would improve its discriminatory power. RESULTS: The median OS was 3.9 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1 to 5.7). Patients with EGFR (15%) or kRAS mutations (34%) had a median OS of 17.3 months (95% CI 12.7 to 22.0) and 1.8 months (95% CI 1.0 to 2.7), respectively. Compared with EGFR-positive patients, EGFR-negative patients had a 2.5 times higher risk of death (95% CI 1.5 to 4.2). Incorporating EGFR mutation status in the prognostic model improved its discriminatory power. CONCLUSION: Survival prediction models for patients with symptomatic bone metastases are used to determine the most appropriate (surgical) treatment for painful or fractured lesions. This study shows that NSCLC should not be regarded as a single entity in such models. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:516-21.

Effectiveness of Repeat Radiotherapy for Painful Bone Metastases in Clinical Practice: A 10 Year Historical Cohort Study.

AIMS: Repeat radiotherapy for palliation of painful bone metastases is often prescribed to non-responders or those with recurrent pain, although studies on retreatment remain scarce. We assessed the effectiveness of retreatment for painful bone metastases in terms of pain relief in everyday clinical practice and identified factors associated with response. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We carried out a single-institution 10 year retrospective cohort study among 247 patients retreated for painful bone metastases. Response was defined as a decrease in pain between 2 and 12 weeks after retreatment. The overall pain response rate was calculated in an evaluable-patients-only analysis and a worst-case analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with pain response. RESULTS: A follow-up of ≥2 weeks was available in 162 of 247 patients (65%). The overall pain response was 66% (95% confidence interval 58-73%) in an evaluable-patients-only analysis and 43% (95% confidence interval 37-50%) in a worst-case analysis. Response to first irradiation (odds ratio 2.16, P = 0.049) and use of systemic therapy (odds ratio 0.39, P = 0.037) were independently associated with the response to retreatment. The median overall survival was 7.1 months. CONCLUSION: In everyday clinical practice, retreatment for painful bone metastases leads to pain reduction in 66% of evaluable patients and 43% of patients in a worst-case analysis. Patients who responded to initial radiotherapy were more likely to respond again and those on systemic therapy were less likely to respond. Overall, repeat radiotherapy should be considered in patients with persisting bone pain.

Molecular phenotype is associated with survival in breast cancer patients with spinal bone metastases.

To aid in therapy selection for patients with spinal bone metastases (SBM), predictive models have been developed. These models consider SBM from breast cancer a positive predictive factor, but do not take phenotypes based on estrogen (ER), progesterone (PR) and human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) receptors into account. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether receptors are associated with survival, when the disease has progressed up to SBM. All patients who were treated for SBM from breast cancer between 2005 and 2012 were included in this international multi-center retrospective study (n = 111). Reports were reviewed for ER, PR and HER2 status and subsequently subdivided into one of four categories; luminal A, luminal B, HER2 and triple negative. Survival time was calculated as the difference between start of treatment for SBM and date of death. Analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests. Median follow-up was 3.7 years. Survival times in the luminal B and HER2 categories were not significantly different to the luminal A category and were joined into a single receptor positive category. Eighty-five patients (77 %) had a receptor positive phenotype and 25 (23 %) had a triple negative phenotype. Median survival time was 22.5 months (95 %CI 18.0-26.9) for the receptor positive category and 6.7 months (95 %CI 2.4-10.9) for the triple negative category (p < 0.001). Patients with SBM from breast cancer with a triple negative phenotype have a shorter survival time than patients with a receptor positive phenotype. Models estimating survival should be adjusted accordingly.

Patterns of retreatment by radiotherapy.

AIMS: To describe patterns of treatment for those who receive more than one episode of megavoltage radiotherapy (retreatment) by cancer type for better service planning and benchmarking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional databases of all patients who received their first megavoltage radiotherapy for any type of cancer at the Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres (LM), New South Wales, Australia, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), Queensland, Australia and Radiotherapeutic Institution Friesland (RIF), Leeuwarden, the Netherlands, over the period 1991-2009 were examined. Radiotherapy retreatment was defined as any radiotherapy episode, to any body site, after an initial episode of radiotherapy, for the same cancer diagnosis. The total retreatment rate was defined as the number of retreatment episodes of radiotherapy divided by the number of cases in the cohort. RESULTS: In total, 62,270 patients (RBWH 38581, LM 9654, RIF 14035) received 77,762 episodes of radiotherapy, giving a total retreatment rate of 0.25; 52,351 patients (84%) received only one episode of treatment and 9919 (16%) received two or more episodes of treatment. Overall retreatment rates for LM, RBWH and RIF were 0.24, 0.25 and 0.26, respectively. For the five most common cancer types treated, the median time between treatment episodes was longest for breast cancer (11.3 months), then head and neck cancer (9.7 months), colorectal cancer (7.2 months), prostate cancer (4.4 months) and lung cancer (4.1 months). Ninety-one per cent of all fractions were delivered in the first episode of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The retreatment rate was very similar between the three facilities, suggesting agreement about the indications for retreatment.

Poor outcomes after whole brain radiotherapy in patients with brain metastases: results from an international multicentre cohort study.

AIMS: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of cancer patients receiving Whole Brain Radiotherapy (WBRT) and delineate poor outcome groups after WBRT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1991 to 2007, 3459 patients receiving WBRT for brain metastases at three centres (in Australia and the Netherlands) were retrospectively reviewed. The effect of clinicodemographic factors, including age, gender, primary cancer, time to WBRT from primary cancer diagnosis and WBRT timing relative to other radiotherapy courses on overall survival, survival from WBRT commencement (WBRT-SV) and death within 6 weeks were analysed. RESULTS: WBRT was the first radiotherapy course in 2161/3459 (63%) and the last in 2932/3459 (85%). The most common primary cancer sites with brain metastases were lung (n = 1800; 52%), breast (n = 568; 16%), melanoma (n = 350; 10%) and colorectal (n = 209; 6%). The median time to WBRT from primary cancer diagnosis was 34 weeks, overall survival 1.42 years (0.04-28.70) and WBRT-SV 0.33 years (0-8.60). Older age, male gender and a shorter time from the primary cancer diagnosis to WBRT predicted worse overall survival and WBRT-SV. Seventeen per cent survived less than 6 weeks. Older patients with a shorter time from the primary cancer diagnosis to WBRT and a lower WBRT episode number were more likely to die less than 6 weeks after WBRT. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer patients with brain metastases have poor overall outcomes. High mortality within 6 weeks of starting WBRT suggests patient selection remains challenging.

The assessment of the risk of fracture in femora with metastatic lesions: comparing case-specific finite element analyses with predictions by clinical experts.

Previously, we showed that case-specific non-linear finite element (FE) models are better at predicting the load to failure of metastatic femora than experienced clinicians. In this study we improved our FE modelling and increased the number of femora and characteristics of the lesions. We retested the robustness of the FE predictions and assessed why clinicians have difficulty in estimating the load to failure of metastatic femora. A total of 20 femora with and without artificial metastases were mechanically loaded until failure. These experiments were simulated using case-specific FE models. Six clinicians ranked the femora on load to failure and reported their ranking strategies. The experimental load to failure for intact and metastatic femora was well predicted by the FE models (R(2) = 0.90 and R(2) = 0.93, respectively). Ranking metastatic femora on load to failure was well performed by the FE models (τ = 0.87), but not by the clinicians (0.11 < τ < 0.42). Both the FE models and the clinicians allowed for the characteristics of the lesions, but only the FE models incorporated the initial bone strength, which is essential for accurately predicting the risk of fracture. Accurate prediction of the risk of fracture should be made possible for clinicians by further developing FE models.

Comparative analysis of risk factors for pathological fracture with femoral metastases.

A number of risk factors based upon mostly retrospective surgical data, have been formulated in order to identify impending pathological fractures of the femur from low-risk metastases. We have followed up patients taking part in a randomised trial of radiotherapy, prospectively, in order to determine if these factors were effective in predicting fractures. In 102 patients with 110 femoral lesions, 14 fractures occurred during follow-up. The risk factors studied were increasing pain, the size of the lesion, radiographic appearance, localisation, transverse/axial/circumferential involvement of the cortex and the scoring system of Mirels. Only axial cortical involvement >30 mm (p = 0.01), and circumferential cortical involvement >50% (p = 0.03) were predictive of fracture. Mirels' scoring system was insufficiently specific to predict a fracture (p = 0.36). Our results indicate that most conventional risk factors overestimate the actual occurrence of pathological fractures of the femur. The risk factor of axial cortical involvement provides a simple, objective tool in order to decide which treatment is appropriate.

Prophylactic cranial irradiation in limited disease small-cell lung cancer in complete remission: a retrospective analysis.

Recently a meta-analysis showed an improved survival probability of prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) in limited disease small-cell lung cancer (LD SCLC) in complete remission after chemotherapy. We evaluated treatment results of PCI+ and PCI- in these patients. Whether PCI (n = 65) or no PCI (n = 37) was administered did not depend either on patients or on tumour characteristics. After 2 years the incidence of brain metastases was 11% in PCI+ patients and 51% in PCI- patients. Both disease-free survival and overall survival were significantly longer after PCI. PCI reduces the incidence of brain metastases, prolongs brain metastases-free period, and overall survival in LD SCLC patients in complete remission after chemotherapy.