The mediating role of health behaviors in the association between depression, anxiety and cancer incidence: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although behavioral mechanisms in the association among depression, anxiety, and cancer are plausible, few studies have empirically studied mediation by health behaviors. We aimed to examine the mediating role of several health behaviors in the associations among depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, smoking-related, and alcohol-related cancers). METHODS: Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 18 cohorts within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence consortium that had a measure of depression or anxiety (N = 319 613, cancer incidence = 25 803). Health behaviors included smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, body mass index (BMI), sedentary behavior, and sleep duration and quality. In stage one, path-specific regression estimates were obtained in each cohort. In stage two, cohort-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects multivariate meta-analysis, and natural indirect effects (i.e. mediating effects) were calculated as hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: Smoking (HRs range 1.04-1.10) and physical inactivity (HRs range 1.01-1.02) significantly mediated the associations among depression, anxiety, and lung cancer. Smoking was also a mediator for smoking-related cancers (HRs range 1.03-1.06). There was mediation by health behaviors, especially smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and a higher BMI, in the associations among depression, anxiety, and overall cancer or other types of cancer, but effects were small (HRs generally below 1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking constitutes a mediating pathway linking depression and anxiety to lung cancer and smoking-related cancers. Our findings underline the importance of smoking cessation interventions for persons with depression or anxiety.

Towards a Clearer Causal Question Underlying the Association Between Cancer and Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies have described an inverse association between cancer diagnosis and subsequent dementia risk. Multiple biologic mechanisms and potential biases have been proposed in attempts to explain this association. One proposed explanation is the opposite expression of Pin1 in cancer and dementia, and we use this explanation and potential drug target to illustrate the required assumptions and potential sources of bias for inferring an effect of Pin1 on dementia risk from analyses measuring cancer diagnosis as a proxy for Pin1 expression. METHODS: We used data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort. We estimate the association between cancer diagnosis (as a proxy for Pin1) and subsequent dementia diagnosis using two different proxy methods and with confounding and censoring for death addressed with inverse probability weights. We estimate and compare the complements of a weighted Kaplan-Meier survival estimator at 20 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Out of 3634 participants, 899 (25%) were diagnosed with cancer, of whom 53 (6%) had dementia, and 567 (63%) died. Among those without cancer, 15% (411) were diagnosed with dementia, and 667 (24%) died over follow-up. Depending on the confounding and selection bias control, and the way in which cancer was used as a time-varying proxy exposure, the risk ratio for dementia diagnosis ranged from 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49, 0.95) to 1.1 (95% CI = 0.79, 1.3). CONCLUSION: Being explicit about the underlying mechanism of interest is key to maximizing what we can learn from this cancer-dementia association given available or readily collected data, and to defining, detecting, and preventing potential biases.

Psychosocial factors, health behaviors and risk of cancer incidence: Testing interaction and effect modification in an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Depression, anxiety and other psychosocial factors are hypothesized to be involved in cancer development. We examined whether psychosocial factors interact with or modify the effects of health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use, in relation to cancer incidence. Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 22 cohorts of the PSYchosocial factors and CAncer (PSY-CA) study. We examined nine psychosocial factors (depression diagnosis, depression symptoms, anxiety diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, perceived social support, loss events, general distress, neuroticism, relationship status), seven health behaviors/behavior-related factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, sedentary behavior, sleep quality, sleep duration) and seven cancer outcomes (overall cancer, smoking-related, alcohol-related, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal). Effects of the psychosocial factor, health behavior and their product term on cancer incidence were estimated using Cox regression. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analyses. Additive and multiplicative interaction/effect modification was examined. This study involved 437,827 participants, 36,961 incident cancer diagnoses, and 4,749,481 person years of follow-up. Out of 744 combinations of psychosocial factors, health behaviors, and cancer outcomes, we found no evidence of interaction. Effect modification was found for some combinations, but there were no clear patterns for any particular factors or outcomes involved. In this first large study to systematically examine potential interaction and effect modification, we found no evidence for psychosocial factors to interact with or modify health behaviors in relation to cancer incidence. The behavioral risk profile for cancer incidence is similar in people with and without psychosocial stress.

Depression, anxiety, and the risk of cancer: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety have long been hypothesized to be related to an increased cancer risk. Despite the great amount of research that has been conducted, findings are inconclusive. To provide a stronger basis for addressing the associations between depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, alcohol-related, and smoking-related cancers), individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses were performed within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence (PSY-CA) consortium. METHODS: The PSY-CA consortium includes data from 18 cohorts with measures of depression or anxiety (up to N = 319,613; cancer incidences, 25,803; person-years of follow-up, 3,254,714). Both symptoms and a diagnosis of depression and anxiety were examined as predictors of future cancer risk. Two-stage IPD meta-analyses were run, first by using Cox regression models in each cohort (stage 1), and then by aggregating the results in random-effects meta-analyses (stage 2). RESULTS: No associations were found between depression or anxiety and overall, breast, prostate, colorectal, and alcohol-related cancers. Depression and anxiety (symptoms and diagnoses) were associated with the incidence of lung cancer and smoking-related cancers (hazard ratios [HRs], 1.06-1.60). However, these associations were substantially attenuated when additionally adjusting for known risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and body mass index (HRs, 1.04-1.23). CONCLUSIONS: Depression and anxiety are not related to increased risk for most cancer outcomes, except for lung and smoking-related cancers. This study shows that key covariates are likely to explain the relationship between depression, anxiety, and lung and smoking-related cancers. PREREGISTRATION NUMBER: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=157677.

Psychosocial factors and cancer incidence (PSY-CA): Protocol for individual participant data meta-analyses.

OBJECTIVES: Psychosocial factors have been hypothesized to increase the risk of cancer. This study aims (1) to test whether psychosocial factors (depression, anxiety, recent loss events, subjective social support, relationship status, general distress, and neuroticism) are associated with the incidence of any cancer (any, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, smoking-related, and alcohol-related); (2) to test the interaction between psychosocial factors and factors related to cancer risk (smoking, alcohol use, weight, physical activity, sedentary behavior, sleep, age, sex, education, hormone replacement therapy, and menopausal status) with regard to the incidence of cancer; and (3) to test the mediating role of health behaviors (smoking, alcohol use, weight, physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep) in the relationship between psychosocial factors and the incidence of cancer. METHODS: The psychosocial factors and cancer incidence (PSY-CA) consortium was established involving experts in the field of (psycho-)oncology, methodology, and epidemiology. Using data collected in 18 cohorts (N = 617,355), a preplanned two-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is proposed. Standardized analyses will be conducted on harmonized datasets for each cohort (stage 1), and meta-analyses will be performed on the risk estimates (stage 2). CONCLUSION: PSY-CA aims to elucidate the relationship between psychosocial factors and cancer risk by addressing several shortcomings of prior meta-analyses.

Change in cognition before and after non-central nervous system cancer diagnosis: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical studies showing that non-central nervous system cancer patients can develop cognitive impairment have primarily focused on patients with specific cancer types and intensive treatments. To better understand the course of cognitive function in the general population of cancer patients, we assessed cognitive trajectories of patients before and after cancer diagnosis in a population-based setting. METHODS: Between 1989 and 2014, 2211 participants from the population-based Rotterdam study had been diagnosed with cancer of whom 718 (32.5%) had undergone ≥1 cognitive assessment before and after diagnosis. Cognition was measured every 3 to 6 years using a neuropsychological battery. Linear mixed models were used to compare cognitive trajectories of patients before and after diagnosis with those of age-matched cancer-free controls (1:3). RESULTS: Median age at cancer diagnosis was 70.3 years and 47.1% were women. Most patients (68.1%) had received local treatment only. Cognitive trajectories of patients before and after cancer diagnosis were largely similar to those of controls. After diagnosis, the largest difference was found on a memory test (patients declined with 0.14 units per year on the Word Learning Test: delayed recall [95% CI = -0.35; 0.07] and controls with 0.09 units [95% CI = -0.18;-0.00], p for difference = .59). CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal cohort, cancer did not appear to alter the trajectory of change in cognitive test results over time from that seen in similar individuals without cancer, although most cancer patients did not receive systemic therapies. Future studies should focus on identifying subgroups of patients who are at high risk for developing cognitive impairment.

Long-term effects of adjuvant treatment for breast cancer on carotid plaques and brain perfusion.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer treatment has been associated with vascular pathology. It is unclear if such treatment is also associated with long-term cerebrovascular changes. We studied the association between radiotherapy and chemotherapy with carotid pathology and brain perfusion in breast cancer survivors. METHODS: We included 173 breast cancer survivors exposed to radiotherapy and chemotherapy, assessed ± 21.2 years after cancer diagnosis, and 346 age-matched cancer-free women (1:2) selected from the population-based Rotterdam Study. Outcome measures were carotid plaque score, intima-media thickness (IMT), total cerebral blood flow (tCBF), and brain perfusion. Additionally, we investigated the association between inclusion of the carotid artery in the radiation field (no/small/large part), tumor location, and these outcome measures within cancer survivors. RESULTS: Cancer survivors had lower tCBF (- 19.6 ml/min, 95%CI - 37.3;- 1.9) and brain perfusion (- 2.5 ml/min per 100 ml, 95%CI - 4.3;- 0.7) than cancer-free women. No statistically significant group differences were observed regarding plaque score or IMT. Among cancer survivors, a large versus a small part of the carotid artery in the radiation field was associated with a higher IMT (0.05, 95%CI0.01;0.09). Also, survivors with a right-sided tumor had lower left carotid plaque score (- 0.31, 95%CI - 0.60;- 0.02) and higher brain perfusion (3.5 ml/min per 100 ml, 95%CI 0.7;6.2) than those with a left-sided tumor. CONCLUSIONS: On average two decades post-diagnosis, breast cancer survivors had lower tCBF and brain perfusion than cancer-free women. Also, survivors with a larger area of the carotid artery within the radiation field had a larger IMT. Future studies should confirm if these cerebrovascular changes underlie the frequently observed cognitive problems in cancer survivors.

Trajectories of Cognitive and Motor Function Between Ages 45 and 90 Years: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: To establish trajectories of cognitive and motor function, and to determine the sequence of change across individual tests in community-dwelling individuals aged 45-90 years. METHOD: Between 1997 and 2016, we repeatedly assessed cognitive function with 5 tests in 9514 participants aged 45-90 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. Between 1999 and 2016, we measured motor function with 3 tests in 8297 participants. All participants were free from dementia, stroke, and parkinsonism. We assessed overall and education-specific cognitive and motor trajectories using linear mixed models with age as time scale. Next, we determined the sequence of change across individual tests. RESULTS: The number of assessments per participant ranged between 1 and 6 (mean interval, years [SD]: 5.1 [1.4]) for cognitive function, and 1 and 4 (5.4 [1.4]) for motor function. Cognitive and motor trajectories declined linearly between ages 45 and 65 years, followed by steeper declines after ages 65-70 years. Lower educated participants had lower cognitive function at age 45 years (baseline), and declined faster on most cognitive, but not on motor tests than higher educated participants. Up to a 25-year age difference between the fastest and slowest declining test scores was observed. CONCLUSIONS: On a population-level, cognitive and motor function decline similarly. Compared to higher educated individuals, lower educated individuals had lower cognitive function at baseline, and a faster rate of decline thereafter. These educational-effects were not seen for motor function. These findings benefit the understanding of the natural course of cognitive and motor function during aging, and highlight the role of education in the preservation of cognitive but not motor function.

Aortic Arch Calcification and the Risk of Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Atherosclerosis and cancer share multiple disease pathways. Yet, it is unclear if atherosclerosis is associated with a subsequent higher cancer risk. We determined the association of atherosclerotic calcification in the aortic arch, as proxy for systemic atherosclerosis, with the risk of cancer. Methods: Between 2003 and 2006, 2,404 participants (mean age: 69.5 years, 52.5% women) from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study underwent computed tomography to quantify calcification in the aortic arch. Participants were followed for the onset of cancer, death, loss to follow-up, or January 1st, 2015, whichever came first. We computed sex-specific tertiles of aortic arch calcification volumes. Next, we examined the association between the volume and severity (i.e., tertiles) of aortic arch calcification and the risk of cancer using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 9.6 years (8.9-10.5), 348 participants were diagnosed with cancer. Participants with the greatest severity of aortic arch calcification had a higher risk of cancer [hazard ratio for the third tertile compared to the first tertile of aortic arch calcification volume in the total population is 1.39 (95% CI = 1.04-1.86)]. Conclusions: Individuals with the most severe aortic arch calcification had a higher risk of cancer. While this could reflect the impact of long-term exposure to shared risk factors, it might also point toward the co-occurrence of both conditions.

Higher Plasma Amyloid-ß Levels Are Associated with a Higher Risk of Cancer: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Various studies show an inverse relation between Alzheimer disease and cancer, but findings are likely to be biased by surveillance and survival bias. Plasma amyloid-ß (Aß) is defined as a preclinical feature of Alzheimer disease, with lower levels of Aß42 being associated with a higher risk of Alzheimer disease. To get more insight into the biological link between Alzheimer disease and cancer, we investigated plasma Aß levels in relation to the risk of cancer. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2005, we measured plasma Aß40 and Aß42 levels in 3,949 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study. These participants were followed until the onset of cancer, all-cause dementia, death, loss to follow-up, or January 1, 2014, whichever came first. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the association between plasma Aß40 and Aß42 levels, and the risk of cancer. Analyses were stratified by cancer site. RESULTS: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 9.0 years (6.9-10.1), 560 participants were diagnosed with cancer. Higher levels of log2 plasma Aß40 and Aß42 were associated with a higher risk of cancer [hazard ratio per standard deviation increase for Aß40 = 1.12 (95% confidence interval, CI = 1.02-1.23) and Aß42 = 1.12 (95% CI = 1.03-1.23)]. These effect estimates were most pronounced for hematologic cancers, urinary tract cancers, and cancers of unknown primary origin. CONCLUSIONS: We found that higher levels of both plasma Aß40 and Aß42 were associated with a higher risk of cancer. IMPACT: Our study suggests a potential biological link between Alzheimer disease and cancer. The pathophysiologic role of Aß in cancer and its causality warrant further investigation.

Association Between the Tumor Marker Carcinoembryonic Antigen and the Risk of Dementia.

There is an ongoing debate about how cancer and dementia relate to each other, and whether their relation is biologically determined or caused by surveillance and survival bias. We aimed to circumvent these biases by determining the relation between the tumor marker carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the risk of dementia in 6,692 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We found that higher levels of CEA were associated with a higher risk of dementia (HR per standard deviation increase in CEA = 1.11, 95% CI 1.04; 1.18). This finding may indicate that cancer and dementia are positively associated, but the mechanisms underlying the relation between CEA and dementia warrant further investigation.

The association of innate and adaptive immunity, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular disease in the Rotterdam Study: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is driven by multifaceted contributions of the immune system. However, the dysregulation of immune cells that leads to ASCVD is poorly understood. We determined the association of components of innate and adaptive immunity longitudinally with ASCVD, and assessed whether arterial calcifications play a role in this association. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Granulocyte (innate immunity) and lymphocyte (adaptive immunity) counts were determined 3 times (2002-2008, mean age 65.2 years; 2009-2013, mean age 69.0 years; and 2014-2015, mean age 78.5 years) in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without ASCVD at baseline. Participants were followed-up for ASCVD or death until 1 January 2015. A random sample of 2,366 underwent computed tomography at baseline to quantify arterial calcification volume in 4 vessel beds. We studied the association between immunity components with risk of ASCVD and assessed whether immunity components were related to arterial calcifications at baseline. Of 7,730 participants (59.4% women), 801 developed ASCVD during a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Having an increased granulocyte count increased ASCVD risk (adjusted hazard ratio for doubled granulocyte count [95% CI] = 1.78 [1.34-2.37], P < 0.001). Higher granulocyte counts were related to larger calcification volumes in all vessels, most prominently in the coronary arteries (mean difference in calcium volume [mm3] per SD increase in granulocyte count [95% CI] = 32.3 [9.9-54.7], P < 0.001). Respectively, the association between granulocyte count and incident coronary heart disease and stroke was partly mediated by coronary artery calcification (overall proportion mediated [95% CI] = 19.0% [-10% to 32.3%], P = 0.08) and intracranial artery calcification (14.9% [-10.9% to 19.1%], P = 0.05). A limitation of our study is that studying the etiology of ASCVD remains difficult within an epidemiological setting due to the limited availability of surrogates for innate and especially adaptive immunity. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that an increased granulocyte count was associated with a higher risk of ASCVD in the general population. Moreover, higher levels of granulocytes were associated with larger volumes of arterial calcification. Arterial calcifications may explain a proportion of the link between granulocytes and ASCVD.

Brain structure prior to non-central nervous system cancer diagnosis: A population-based cohort study.

PURPOSE: Many studies have shown that patients with non-central nervous system (CNS) cancer can have brain abnormalities, such as reduced gray matter volume and cerebral microbleeds. These abnormalities can sometimes be present even before start of treatment, suggesting a potential detrimental effect of non-CNS cancer itself on the brain. In these previous studies, psychological factors associated with a cancer diagnosis and selection bias may have influenced results. To overcome these limitations, we investigated brain structure with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) prior to cancer diagnosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 2005 and 2014, 4,622 participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study who were free of cancer, dementia, and stroke, underwent brain MRI and were subsequently followed for incident cancer until January 1st, 2015. We investigated the association between brain MRI measurements, including cerebral small vessel disease, volumes of global brain tissue, lobes, and subcortical structures, and global white matter microstructure, and the risk of non-CNS cancer using Cox proportional hazards models. Age was used as time scale. Models were corrected for e.g. sex, intracranial volume, educational level, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking status, alcohol use, and depression sum-score. RESULTS: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 7.0 years (4.9-8.1), 353 participants were diagnosed with non-CNS cancer. Results indicated that persons who develop cancer do not have more brain abnormalities before clinical manifestation of the disease than persons who remain free of cancer. The largest effect estimates were found for the relation between presence of lacunar infarcts and the risk of cancer (hazard ratio [HR] 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.39 [0.97-1.98]) and for total brain volume (HR [95%CI] per standard deviation increase in total brain volume = 0.76 [0.55-1.04]). CONCLUSION: We did not observe associations between small vessel disease, brain tissue volumes, and global white matter microstructure, and subsequent cancer risk in an unselected population. These findings deviate from previous studies indicating brain abnormalities among patients shortly after cancer diagnosis.

Trajectories of Cognitive Function Prior to Cancer Diagnosis: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: An emerging body of research suggests that noncentral nervous system cancer may negatively impact the brain apart from effects of cancer treatment. However, studies assessing cognitive function in newly diagnosed cancer patients cannot exclude selection bias and psychological effects of cancer diagnosis. To overcome these limitations, we investigated trajectories of cognitive function of patients before cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Between 1989 and 2013, a total of 2059 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study were diagnosed with noncentral nervous system cancer. Cognitive assessments were performed every 3 to 5 years using a neuropsychological battery. The general cognitive factor was composed of individual cognitive tests to assess global cognition. Using linear mixed models, we compared change in cognitive function of cancer case patients before diagnosis with cognitive change of age-matched cancer-free control subjects (1:2). In addition, we performed sensitivity analyses by discarding assessments of control subjects 5 years before the end of follow-up to exclude effects from potential undiagnosed cancer. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The Word Learning Test immediate recall declined faster among case patients than among control subjects (-0.05, 95% confidence interval = -0.09 to -0.01 vs 0.01, 95% confidence interval = -0.01 to 0.03; P for difference = .003). However, this difference was not statistically significant in sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences were observed in change of other individual cognitive tests and of the general cognitive factor. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we evaluated cognitive function in a large group of cancer patients prior to diagnosis, thereby excluding the psychological impact of cancer diagnosis and biased patient selection. In contrast to previous studies shortly after cancer diagnosis, we found no difference in change of cognitive function between cancer patients and control subjects.

Ascertainment of cancer in longitudinal research: The concordance between the Rotterdam Study and the Netherlands Cancer Registry.

Complete and accurate registration of cancer is needed to provide reliable data on cancer incidence and to investigate aetiology. Such data can be derived from national cancer registries, but also from large population-based cohort studies. Yet, the concordance and discordance between these two data sources remain unknown. We evaluated completeness and accuracy of cancer registration by studying the concordance between the population-based Rotterdam Study (RS) and the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) between 1989 and 2012 using the independent case ascertainment method. We compared all incident cancers in participants of the RS (aged ≥45 years) to registered cancers in the NCR in the same persons based on the date of diagnosis and the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code. In total, 2,977 unique incident cancers among 2,685 persons were registered. Two hundred eighty-eight cancers (9.7%) were coded by the RS that were not present in the NCR. These were mostly nonpathology-confirmed lung and haematological cancers. Furthermore, 116 cancers were coded by the NCR, but not by the RS (3.9%), of which 20.7% were breast cancers. Regarding pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses, completeness was >95% in both registries. Eighty per cent of the cancers registered in both registries were coded with the same date of diagnosis and ICD code. Of the remaining cancers, 344 (14.5%) were misclassified with regard to date of diagnosis and 72 (3.0%) with regard to ICD code. Our findings indicate that multiple sources on cancer are complementary and should be combined to ensure reliable data on cancer incidence.

Pathology-confirmed versus non pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses: incidence, participant characteristics, and survival.

Cancer diagnoses which are not confirmed by pathology are often under-registered in cancer registries compared to pathology-confirmed diagnoses. It is unknown how many patients have a non pathology-confirmed cancer diagnosis, and whether their characteristics and survival differ from patients with a pathology-confirmed diagnosis. Participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study were followed between 1989 and 2013 for the diagnosis of cancer. Cancer diagnoses were classified into pathology-confirmed versus non pathology-confirmed (i.e., based on imaging or tumour markers). We compared participant characteristics and the distribution of cancers at different sites. Furthermore, we investigated differences in overall survival using survival curves adjusted for age and sex. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 10.7 (6.3-15.9) years, 2698 out of 14,024 participants were diagnosed with cancer, of which 316 diagnoses (11.7%) were non pathology-confirmed. Participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses were older, more often women, and had a lower education. Most frequently non pathology-confirmed cancer sites included central nervous system (66.7%), hepato-pancreato-biliary (44.5%), and unknown primary origin (31.2%). Survival of participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses after 1 year was lower compared to survival of participants with pathology-confirmed diagnoses (32.6% vs. 63.4%; risk difference of 30.8% [95% CI 25.2%; 36.2%]). Pathological confirmation of cancer is related to participant characteristics and cancer site. Furthermore, participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses have worse survival than participants with pathology-confirmed diagnoses. Missing data on non pathology-confirmed diagnoses may result in underestimation of cancer incidence and in an overestimation of survival in cancer registries, and may introduce bias in aetiological research.

Balance between innate versus adaptive immune system and the risk of dementia: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Immunity has been suggested to be important in the pathogenesis of dementia. However, the contribution of innate versus adaptive immunity in the development of dementia is not clear. In this study, we aimed to investigate (1) the association between components of innate immunity (granulocytes and platelets) and adaptive immunity (lymphocytes) with risk of dementia and (2) the association between their derived ratios (granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio [GLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], and systemic immune-inflammation index [SII]), reflecting the balance between innate and adaptive immunity, with risk of dementia. METHODS: Blood cell counts were measured repeatedly between 2002 and 2015 in dementia-free participants of the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Participants were followed-up for dementia until 1 January 2016. Joint models were used to determine the association between granulocyte, platelets, and lymphocyte counts, and their derived ratios with risk of dementia. RESULTS: Of the 8313 participants (mean [standard deviation] age 61.1 [7.4] years, 56.9% women), 664 (8.0%) developed dementia during a median follow-up of 8.6 years. Doubling of granulocyte and platelet counts tended to be associated with an increased risk of dementia (HR [95%CI] 1.22 [0.89-1.67] and 1.45 [1.07-1.95], respectively). Doubling of the derived ratios GLR, PLR, and SII were all associated with an increased dementia risk (HR [95%CI] 1.26 [1.03-1.53], 1.27 [1.05-1.53], and 1.15 [0.98-1.34], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: GLR, PLR, and SII are associated with an increased risk of dementia in the general population. This supports the role of an imbalance in the immune system towards innate immunity in the pathogenesis of dementia.

Alzheimer's disease as a multistage process: an analysis from a population-based cohort study.

In cancer research, multistage models are used to assess the multistep process that leads to the onset of cancer. In view of biological and clinical similarities between cancer and dementia, we used these models to study Alzheimer's disease (AD). From the population-based Rotterdam Study, we included 9,362 non-demented participants, of whom 1,124 developed AD during up to 26 years of follow-up. Under a multistage model, we regressed the logarithm of AD incidence rate against the logarithm of five-year age categories. The slope in this model reflects the number of steps (n-1) required for disease onset before the final step leading to disease manifestation. A linear relationship between log incidence rate and log age was observed, with a slope of 12.82 (95% confidence interval: 9.01-16.62), equivalent to 14 steps. We observed fewer steps for those at high genetically determined risk: 12 steps for APOE-ε4 carriers, and 10 steps for those at highest genetic risk based on APOE and a genetic risk score. The pathogenesis of AD complies with a multistage disease-model, requiring 14 steps before disease manifestation. Genetically predisposed individuals require fewer steps indicating that they already inherited multiple of these steps. Unravelling these steps in AD pathogenesis could benefit the development of intervention strategies.

Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

Inflammation markers and cognitive performance in breast cancer survivors 20 years after completion of chemotherapy: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is an important candidate mechanism underlying cancer and cancer treatment-related cognitive impairment. We investigated levels of blood cell-based inflammatory markers in breast cancer survivors on average 20 years after chemotherapy and explored the relation between these markers and global cognitive performance. METHODS: One hundred sixty-six breast cancer survivors who received post-surgical radiotherapy and six cycles of adjuvant cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) chemotherapy on average 20 years before enrollment were compared with 1344 cancer-free women from a population-based sample (50-80 years old). Breast cancer survivors were excluded if they used adjuvant hormonal therapy or if they developed relapse, metastasis, or second primary malignancies. Systemic inflammation status was assessed by the granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII). Cognitive performance was assessed using an extensive neuropsychological test battery from which the general cognitive factor was derived to evaluate global cognitive performance. We examined the association between cancer, the general cognitive factor, and inflammatory markers using linear regression models. RESULTS: Breast cancer survivors had a lower general cognitive factor than non-exposed participants from the comparator group (mean difference = -0.21; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.35 to -0.06). Inflammatory markers were higher in cancer survivors compared with non-exposed participants (mean difference for log(GLR) = 0.31; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.37, log(PLR) = 0.14; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.19, log(SII) = 0.31; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.39). The association between higher levels of inflammatory markers and lower general cognitive factor was statistically significant in cancer survivors but not among non-exposed participants. We found a group-by-inflammatory marker interaction; cancer survivors showed additional lower general cognitive factor per standard deviation increase in inflammatory markers (P for interaction for GLR = 0.038, PLR = 0.003, and SII = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show that (1) cancer survivors have increased levels of inflammation on average 20 years after treatment and (2) these inflammatory levels are associated with lower cognitive performance. Although this association needs verification by a prospective study to determine causality, our findings can stimulate research on the role of inflammation in long-term cognitive problems and possibilities to diminish such problems.