How the risk principle reduces recidivism: The impact of legislative revisions on the release and reoffense rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

OBJECTIVE: The present study examined the relationship between legislative revisions regarding sexual offenses and the release decisions and recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. In 2008, the Austrian government passed a package of revised criminal laws aiming to decrease incarceration rates. At the same time, connecting recidivism risk to professional risk management efforts was expected to increase public safety. HYPOTHESES: Given the strong empirical background of the implemented risk assessment and management efforts, we expected both an increase in the percentage of conditional release decisions and a decrease in recidivism rates. METHOD: We analyzed the data of 2,610 male individuals convicted of sexual offenses who were released from the Austrian Prison System between 2001 and 2016 within a natural experiment using a prospective-longitudinal quasi-experimental study design. RESULTS: The results indicated that the percentage of conditional releases of individuals convicted of sexual offenses increased substantially since 2008. Additionally, within the same period, the recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses decreased further. CONCLUSION: Even if both developmental processes are only correlational and a causal relationship cannot be examined, the present results supported the empirical evidence of the risk principle-at least if it is based on scientifically sound risk assessment and management methods. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

[Relations Between Rape Myths and Behavioral and Personality Characteristics in Males Convicted of Rape]. / Verhaltens- und persönlichkeitsbasierte Korrelate von Vergewaltigungsmythen bei Männern, die aufgrund einer Vergewaltigung verurteilt wurden.

OBJECTIVE: To date the relationships between rape myths and other psychological constructs within males who have committed rape have not been explored sufficiently. Considered as a risk factor for the perpetration of rape it seems significant to examine their association to individual behavioral and personality characteristics more in detail. METHODS: Therefore, we analyzed the relations between self-reported rape myth acceptance and the self-evaluation of aggressiveness, assertiveness, hypersexuality, social anxiety, sexual anxiety, SCID personality characteristics and the external assessment of psychopathy within a sample of N=569 males convicted of rape. RESULTS: The results showed significant correlations with all constructs except sexual anxiety, antisocial personality and psychopathy. Furthermore, findings indicated the assignment of the relevant variables to two principal components: rape myths, aggressiveness, hypersexuality, paranoid and narcissistic personality (K1) on the one hand and psychopathy and antisocial personality (K2) on the other hand. DISCUSSION: Following the results, rape myths are contextualized within the investigated psychological constructs and their potential differentiation from psychopathy and antisocial personality is discussed.

Machine Learning and Risk Assessment: Random Forest Does Not Outperform Logistic Regression in the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

Although many studies supported the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) because they outperformed unstructured judgments, it remains an ongoing challenge to seek potentials for improvement of their predictive performance. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, like random forests, are able to detect patterns in data useful for prediction purposes without explicitly programming them (e.g., by considering nonlinear effects between risk factors and the criterion). Therefore, the current study aims to compare conventional logistic regression analyses with the random forest algorithm on a sample of N = 511 adult male individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design and participants were followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. The Static-99, containing static risk factors, and the Stable-2007, containing stable dynamic risk factors, were included as predictors. The results demonstrated no superior predictive performance of the random forest compared with logistic regression; furthermore, methods of interpretable ML did not point to any robust nonlinear effects. Altogether, results supported the statistical use of logistic regression for the development and clinical application of ARAIs.

The prevalence of mental disorders among incarcerated adult men convicted of child sexual exploitation material offences.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the growing body of research on individuals convicted of child sexual exploitation material (CSEM), relatively little is known about the prevalence of mental disorders in this population. The aim of the present study was to describe the prevalence of mental disorders among individuals convicted of CSEM offenses. METHODS: This cross-sectional study examined data from 66 individuals serving a sentence for CSEM offenses in the Austrian prison system who underwent a clinical assessment between 2002 and 2020. Diagnoses were based on the German version of the Structured Clinical Interview for Axis I and Axis II disorders. RESULTS: In the total sample, n = 53 individuals (80.3%) were diagnosed with a mental disorder. Twenty-seven individuals (40.9%) had an Axis I disorder and n = 47 (71.2%) had an Axis II disorder. More than two-thirds of the sample, n = 47 (71.2%), had a personality disorder diagnosis, with cluster B personality disorders being the most frequent mental disorders. More than half of the sample, n = 43 (65.2%), had a diagnosis of pedophilic disorder, of which n = 9 (13.6%) were of the exclusive type. Twenty-eight persons (42.4%) showed evidence of a hypersexual disorder. CONCLUSIONS: In line with previous research, the present sample of convicted CSEM offenders showed a comparatively high prevalence of personality disorders and paraphilic disorders, particularly pedophilic disorders. Additionally, the rate of hypersexual disorder symptoms was considerably high. These findings should be considered for the development of successful risk management strategies for this population.

Are mental disorders associated with recidivism in men convicted of sexual offenses?

INTRODUCTION: In offending populations, prevalence rates of mental disorders are much higher than in the general population. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether mental disorders can improve the prediction of recidivism beyond actuarial risk assessment tools. METHODS: The present prospective-longitudinal study was conducted between 2001 and 2021 and included 1066 men convicted of sexual offenses in Austria. All participants were evaluated with actuarial risk assessment tools for the prediction of sexual and violent recidivism and the Structured Clinical Interview for Axis I and Axis II disorders. Sexual and violent reconvictions were assessed. RESULTS: Exhibitionism and an exclusive pedophilia showed the strongest correlations with sexual recidivism in the total sample. In the child related offense subsample additionally a narcissistic personality disorder was correlated with sexual recidivism. The strongest correlation with violent recidivism was found for an antisocial and borderline personality disorder. None of the mental disorders could improve the prediction of recidivism beyond actuarial risk assessment tools. CONCLUSION: Common current actuarial risk assessment tools revealed good predictive accuracy in men convicted of sexual offenses. With few exceptions mental disorders were only weakly associated with recidivism, suggesting that there is no direct link between mental disorders and violent and sexual reoffending. Mental disorders should nevertheless be considered in treatment issues.

A field study of acute dynamic risk assessment in individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

Acute dynamic risk factors can change over short periods of time, even within days or hours. When making risk assessments of individuals convicted of sexual offenses, it is necessary to consider this rapidity of change, in order to monitor appropriately the recidivism risk and to prevent future crimes. Until now, there is only one instrument-the Acute-2007-which assesses acute risk factors in individuals convicted of sexual offenses. However, the current state of research about its psychometric properties is still limited. The aim of the present study was to examine the German version of the Acute-2007 in a final sample of N = 534 adult male individuals convicted of a sexual offense in Germany. Within a prospective-longitudinal field study, appropriately trained parole officers used the Acute-2007 directly after a case was allocated to them. By using an average follow-up period of M = 3.83 years, recidivism data were drawn from the Federal Central Criminal Register of the Federal Office of Justice. Results revealed that the Acute-2007 predicted moderately general (AUC = .64), sexual (AUC = .64), and violent (AUC = .64) recidivism. By using Cox regression analysis, the Acute-2007 significantly predicted the time periods until a sexual reoffense. Furthermore, the Acute-2007 added incremental predictive validity beyond the Static-99 in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Taken together, the results of the present study support the relevance of acute dynamic risk factors in risk assessment and management of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

[Aggressiveness, assertiveness, and sexual deviance: An empirical-quantitative examination of Stoller's perversion theory]. / Aggressivität, Assertivität und sexuelle Devianz: Eine empirisch-quantitative Prüfung der Stoller'schen Perversionstheorie.

Aggressiveness, assertiveness, and sexual deviance: An empirical-quantitative examination of Stoller's perversion theory Objectives: The main aim of the present study was to empirically examinate the psychodynamic-founded perversion theory of Robert D. Stoller (1979), particularly his assumption of a transformation of aggressive impulses into sexual deviant fantasies due to traumatic experiences. Methods: In the present study different aspects of the theory were examined by using a sample (N = 954) of individuals convicted of sexually motivated offenses who had been clinically and forensically assessed between 2002 and 2018 at the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in the Austrian Prison System. As a part of the psychological testing procedure, German-speaking questionnaires for the assessment of aggressiveness and assertiveness were applied. Results: The results indicated that participants with a diagnosis of paraphilia showed significantly less spontaneously expressed aggression and less social competence compared to individuals without such a diagnosis. Conclusions: The findings of the present study are in line with the core assumptions of Stoller's perversion theory by demonstrating an inverse relationship between the diagnosis of paraphilia and self-reported aggression.

Cross-Validation of the Revised Version of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG-R) in a Sample of Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses.

The aim of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the German version of the revised Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the VRAG-R. Therefore, VRAG-R ratings were made retrospectively in an Austrian sample of 534 individuals convicted of a sexual offense who were followed up with an average of 7.62 years. The VRAG-R showed large effect sizes for the predictive accuracy of violent (AUC = .75) and general recidivism (AUC = .78) and significant but rather small effect sizes (AUC = .63 and .61, respectively) in predicting any sexual and sexual contact recidivism. Furthermore, for the prediction of violent recidivism but not for sexual recidivism the VRAG-R was incrementally predictive beyond the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the Static-99. Finally, the VRAG-R absolute recidivism rates for the risk bins showed satisfactory calibration properties. Taken together, the results of the present study support the cross-national utility of the VRAG-R and its use in applied risk assessment settings also in German-speaking countries.

Assisting decisions in child protection service institutions with the RIC - The Risk Indication in Child sexual abuse.

BACKGROUND: The RIC (Risk Indication in Child sexual abuse) and its screening version (RIC:SV) are actuarial risk assessment instruments, developed at the Austrian Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders and designed for child protection services to assess the likelihood of sexual recidivism in male contact child sexual abusers who still or again live within a family including children. OBJECTIVE: The RIC was designed to require a minimum of forensic information, with the RIC:SV completely waiving such information. PARTICIPANTS: Nine factors related to sexual recidivism could be identified by analyzing five-year follow-up data of N = 324 male contact child sexual abusers. SETTING: The data was collected retrospectively from files between the years 2002 and 2011. METHOD: Chi-Square Tests and ROC-analyses were calculated. RESULTS: The RIC and the RIC:SV were found to significantly predict sexual recidivism with AUC values of .84 (RIC) and .78 (RIC:SV). The items of the RIC are: (a) offender has never had a live-in relationship, (b) unstable family background of the offender, (c) impulsivity of the offender, (d) previous psychiatric treatment(s) of the offender, (e) offender has prior prison sentence/s, (f) problems of the offender to accept rules and norms, (g) offender was a stranger to his former victim(s), (h) offender had at least one male victim, and (i) offender has ever committed an extrafamilial contact child sexual abuse offense. CONCLUSION: The RIC and the RIC:SV need no extensive training to be used. The results may help CPS workers to justify risk related interventions.

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: Validity and Dimensional Structure of the Stable-2007.

In this study, the predictive and incremental validity of the Stable-2007 beyond the Static-99 was evaluated in an updated sample of N = 638 adult male sexual offenders followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design. Scores and risk categories of the Static-99 (AUC = .721; p < .001) and of the Stable-2007 (AUC = .623, p = .005) were found to be significantly related to sexual recidivism. The Stable-2007 risk categories contributed incrementally to the prediction of sexual recidivism beyond the Static-99. Analyzing the dimensional structure of the Stable-2007 yielded three factors, named Antisociality, Sexual Deviance, and Hypersexuality. Antisociality and Sexual Deviance were significant predictors for sexual recidivism. Sexual Deviance was negatively associated with non-sexual violent recidivism. Comparisons with latent dimensions of other risk assessment instruments are made and implications for applied risk assessment are discussed.

Prison mental healthcare: recent developments and future challenges.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In prisons, resources for psychiatric care are limited, but the population is at high risk for mental disorders. This article aims to review recent findings and developments and to focus on the changing needs of prisoners and consequences for treatment. RECENT FINDINGS: The evidence for high general prevalence rates of mental disorders in prison populations can be considered as robust worldwide. Recent meta-analyses focused on specific prevalence rates and found that complex disorders, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder, are also more common in prison populations. Interest is growing in studying subgroups with special needs, for example, women and older prisoners. Furthermore, a large amount of research deals with suicide and self-harm, especially risk factors and assessments. Promising results have been obtained for treatment outcome in substance use disorders. Psychological therapies, however, have not yet been proven to have sustaining effects. SUMMARY: Considering the growing amount of research on prison inmates' mental health issues and heterogeneous needs, future studies should aim to consolidate previous findings and develop special diagnostic and therapeutic standards for mental healthcare in prisons that consider ethical aspects and human and financial resources.

The Predictive Properties of Psychiatric Diagnoses, Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Risk Change Assessed by the VRS-SO in Forensically Admitted and Released Sexual Offenders.

Psychiatric diagnoses, static risk factors, and criminogenic needs at time of admission and release were examined in a mentally ill sample of psychiatrically detained sexual offenders. Although clinically found to be at low or even very low risk at discharge, 12% reoffended sexually over an average follow-up of 7 years. Psychotic disorders were present in only 5% of offenders, whereas 93% had a personality disorder diagnosis and 76% a paraphilic disorder diagnosis. Only exhibitionism and alcohol misuse were associated with relapse. Static risk factors captured by the Static-99 also did not significantly predict recidivism; however, the VRS-SO-a structured risk assessment tool that assesses criminogenic needs and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents, rated retrospectively on the present sample-predicted sexual recidivism as well as any new imprisonment or psychiatric placement. In particular, the sexual deviance factor of the VRS-SO had large in magnitude predictive associations with sexual reoffending, while treatment related changes assessed on this factor were significantly related to non-reoffending. Findings corroborate the advantages of structured risk assessment and structured change monitoring, particularly for complex clientele such as mentally ill sexual offenders.

Factors Predicting Desistance From Reoffending: A Validation Study of the SAPROF in Sexual Offenders.

The present study aims at validating the German version of the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors (SAPROF) for violence risk in a representative sample of incarcerated adult male sexual offenders. Sexual offenders ( n = 450) were rated retrospectively with the SAPROF using the database of the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in the Austrian Prison System. Interrater reliability and predictive validity of the SAPROF scores concerning desistance from recidivism were calculated. Concurrent and incremental validity were tested using the combination of the SAPROF and the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20). Interrater reliability was moderate to excellent, and predictive accuracy for various types of recidivism was rather small to moderate. There was a clear negative relationship between the SAPROF and the SVR-20 risk factors. Whereas the SAPROF revealed itself as a significant predictor for various recidivism categories, it did not add any predictive value beyond the SVR-20. Although the SAPROF itself can predict desistance from recidivism, it seems to contribute to the risk assessment in convicted sexual offenders only to a limited extent, once customary risk assessment tools have been applied. Implications for clinical use and further studies are discussed.

Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG).

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design. For the prediction of violent recidivism the German version of the SORAG yielded an effect size of AUC = .74 (p < .001, 95% CI = .70-.78). The predictive accuracy for general and violent recidivism was slightly higher than for general sexual and sexual hands-on recidivism. The effect sizes were found to be higher for the child molester sample than for rapists. However, the differences were significant only for general recidivism (z = 2.48, p = .001). Further analyses exhibited the SORAG to have incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG and the PCL-R, and to remain the only significant predictor for violent recidivism once all 3 instruments were forced into a combined regression model. Twelve out of the 14 SORAG items were found to have a significant positive relationship with violent recidivism. The comparison of the relative and absolute risk indices between the Austrian and the Canadian samples showed that the normative data distribution yielded more (absolute risk indices) or less (relative risk indices) meaningful differences between the 2 countries. (PsycINFO Database Record

Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abusers Working With Children.

Child sexual abuse occurring in a child- or youth-serving institution or organization has attracted great public and scientific attention. In light of the particular personal and offense-related characteristics of men who have abused children within such an institution or organization, it is of special importance to evaluate the predictive performance of currently applied risk assessment instruments in this offender population. Therefore, the present study assessed the risk ratings and predictive performance of four risk assessment instruments and one instrument assessing protective factors concerning any, violent and sexual recidivism in child sexual abusers working with children (CSA-W) in comparison with extra-familial child sexual abusers (CSA-E) and intra-familial child sexual abusers (CSA-I). The results indicate that CSA-W mostly recidivate with a sexual offense. Although all included risk measures seem to function with CSA-W, the Static-99 seems to be the instrument that performs best in predicting sexual recidivism in CSA-W. CSA-W had the most protective factors measured with the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors (SAPROF). While the SAPROF could not predict desistance from recidivism in CSA-W, it predicted desistance from any recidivism in all CSA. As CSA-W frequently hold many indicators for pedophilic sexual interests but only a few for antisocial tendencies, it can be suggested that CSA-W are at an increased risk for sexual recidivism and thus risk measures especially designed for sexual recidivism work best in CSA-W. Nevertheless, CSA-W also hold many protective factors; however, their impact on CSA-W is not clear yet and needs further study.

Sadism and Violent Reoffending in Sexual Offenders.

A diagnosis of sadism in sexual offenders is commonly regarded as indicative of high risk for violent reoffending. The purpose of the current two studies was to evaluate whether sadism is indeed associated with higher rates of violent (including sexual) reoffending. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the rate of violent and sexual recidivism was assessed across seven samples of male sex offenders (total N = 2,169) as a function of diagnoses of sexual sadism. In Study 2 (N = 768) the outcome (violent recidivism yes/no) was regressed on sadism, along with behavioral indicators of sexually sadistic offending, and scores from violence risk assessment instruments. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the overall risk of sadists compared with nonsadists with respect to violent (including sexual contact) reoffending was slightly elevated (by a factor of 1.18), yet not significantly increased. Similarly, the risk of sexual reoffending among sadists was slightly, but not significantly, higher than among nonsadists (factor 1.38). According to Study 2, only a measure of sadistic behavior, not the clinical diagnosis, was associated with violent reoffending. This association, however, was not present once age and customary risk assessment instruments for violence risk were included in the regression. A clinical diagnosis of sexual sadism and behavioral measures of sadism are related to the risk of violent reoffending in sexual offenders. These associations, however, are weak and do not hold once variables relevant for the prediction of violence are controlled for. At the individual level, the risk for future violence in sadists can therefore be adequately described by customary risk assessment instruments.

Predicting reoffense in pedophilic child molesters by clinical diagnoses and risk assessment.

A Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-based diagnosis of pedophilia has so far failed to predict sexual reoffense in convicted child molesters, probably because of its broad and unspecific conceptualization. In this study, therefore, we investigated the prognostic value of the subtype exclusive pedophilia and a series of customary risk assessment instruments (SSPI, Static-99, Stable-2007, VRS:SO) and the PCL-R in a sample of prison released pedophilic sexual offenders. First, we examined the convergent validity of risk assessment instruments (N = 261). Then, we calculated the predictive accuracy of the measures and diagnosis for sexual recidivism by ROC analyses and subsequent Cox regression (N = 189). Also, predictive values with more clinical immediacy were calculated (sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV). The VRS:SO, the SSPI, and the Static-99 significantly predicted sexual recidivism, as did a diagnosis of exclusive pedophilia. Also, the VRS:SO predicted sexual reoffense significantly better than the Stable-2007, the Static-99/Stable-2007 combined score, and the PCL-R. When used combined, only the VRS:SO and a diagnosis of exclusive pedophilia added incremental validity to each other. Our findings support that the clinical diagnosis of an exclusive pedophilia based on DSM criteria and VRS:SO defined risk factors can reliably discriminate higher from lower risk offenders, even within the select subgroup of pedophilic child molesters.

Sexual offender recidivism among a population-based prison sample.

The present study examines recidivism rates in sexual offenders using officially registered reconvictions in a representative data set of N = 1,115 male sexual offenders from Austria. In general, results indicate that most sexual offenders do not reoffend sexually after release from prison. More detailed, within the first 5 years after release, the sexual recidivism rate was 6% for the total sample, 4% for the rapist subgroup, and 8% for the child molester subgroup. The findings confirmed previous studies about sex offender recidivism which have shown that first-time sexual offenders are significantly less likely to sexually reoffend than those with previous sexual convictions. With regard to the relationship between age and sexual recidivism, the results challenged the traditional assumption of a clear linear function between age and recidivism. Taken together, compared with previous studies, the recidivism rates found in the present investigation are substantially lower than previous research has indicated.

Sadism in sexual offenders: evidence for dimensionality.

Recurrent and intense sexual fantasies and urges that circle around the infliction of pain or humiliation on another human being may predispose individuals toward acts of sexual aggression against nonconsenting victims. Consequently, sexual sadism is a paraphilia with particular relevance for forensic psychology and psychiatry. Using behavioral indicators derived from crime scene actions as well as clinical data, we sought in the present study to identify the latent structure of the disorder. We analyzed data from a national sample of male sexual offenders from Austria (N = 1,020). In addition to latent profile analysis, 3 conceptually different taxometric methods were applied. The results of the analyses were more in accordance with a dimensional interpretation than with a categorical distinction. That is, sadistic conduct in sexual offenses is likely an extreme form of coercion, but not a qualitatively different entity. The implications with respect to the current debate on the diagnostic criteria for sadism are discussed.

Pedophilic sexual interests and psychopathy in child sexual abusers working with children.

Research has identified stable and dynamic characteristics in child sexual abusers working with children (CSA-W) that may distinguish them from other child sexual abusers (CSA). However, in previous research CSA-W have usually been included in the group of extra-familial CSA (CSA-E). Two hundred and forty-eight forensic-sexological reports about CSA conducted by the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders in the Austrian Prison System were evaluated retrospectively. One hundred and nineteen intra-familial CSA (CSA-I), 66 CSA-E, and 38 CSA-W were compared with regard to static risk factors, indicators of psychopathy, and pedophilic sexual interests. CSA-E had the highest risk of recidivism as measured by the Static-99 total score, followed by CSA-W. Furthermore, CSA-E had more previous convictions than CSA-W. Both CSA-E and CSA-I had higher total scores on the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised than CSA-W. CSA-W had the highest prevalence of pedophilia diagnoses according to DSM-IV-TR criteria, as well as the highest rate of pedophilia with an orientation toward male children, and the highest frequency of male victims. CSA-W also had the highest total scores in the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests. CSA-W seem to constitute a group with particular risk factors and criminogenic needs, that is, they show more indicators of pedophilic sexual interests but less general antisociality and psychopathy, and would thus seem to be distinguishable from other CSA. Future research should focus in particular on evaluating differences in the grooming strategies used by CSA-W to commit and disclose child sexual abuse, as well as on the resources of this particular offender group.