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1.
J Biogeogr ; 51(1): 89-102, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38515765

RESUMO

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

2.
Nat Ecol Evol ; 8(3): 477-488, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38332027

RESUMO

Successful alien species may experience a period of quiescence, known as the lag phase, before becoming invasive and widespread. The existence of lags introduces severe uncertainty in risk analyses of aliens as the present state of species is a poor predictor of future distributions, invasion success and impact. Predicting a species' ability to invade and pose negative impacts requires a quantitative understanding of the commonality and magnitude of lags, environmental factors and mechanisms likely to terminate lag. Using herbarium and climate data, we analysed over 5,700 time series (species × regions) in 3,505 naturalized plant species from nine regions in temperate and tropical climates to quantify lags and test whether there have been shifts in the species' climatic space during the transition from the lag phase to the expansion phase. Lags were identified in 35% of the assessed invasion events. We detected phylogenetic signals for lag phases in temperate climate regions and that annual self-fertilizing species were less likely to experience lags. Where lags existed, they had an average length of 40 years and a maximum of 320 years. Lengthy lags (>100 years) were more likely to occur in perennial plants and less frequent in self-pollinating species. For 98% of the species with a lag phase, the climate spaces sampled during the lag period differed from those in the expansion phase based on the assessment of centroid shifts or degree of climate space overlap. Our results highlight the importance of functional traits for the onset of the expansion phase and suggest that climate discovery may play a role in terminating the lag phase. However, other possibilities, such as sampling issues and climate niche shifts, cannot be ruled out.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Espécies Introduzidas , Filogenia , Clima Tropical , Plantas
3.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 1330, 2024 Feb 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38351066

RESUMO

Human factors and plant characteristics are important drivers of plant invasions, which threaten ecosystem integrity, biodiversity and human well-being. However, while previous studies often examined a limited number of factors or focused on a specific invasion stage (e.g., naturalization) for specific regions, a multi-factor and multi-stage analysis at the global scale is lacking. Here, we employ a multi-level framework to investigate the interplay between plant characteristics (genome size, Grime's adaptive CSR-strategies and native range size) and economic use and how these factors collectively affect plant naturalization and invasion success worldwide. While our findings derived from structural equation models highlight the substantial contribution of human assistance in both the naturalization and spread of invasive plants, we also uncovered the pivotal role of species' adaptive strategies among the factors studied, and the significantly varying influence of these factors across invasion stages. We further revealed that the effects of genome size on plant invasions were partially mediated by species adaptive strategies and native range size. Our study provides insights into the complex and dynamic process of plant invasions and identifies its key drivers worldwide.


Assuntos
Cidadania , Ecossistema , Humanos , Tamanho do Genoma , Espécies Introduzidas , Ecologia , Biodiversidade , Plantas/genética
4.
Plant Environ Interact ; 5(1): e10129, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38323127

RESUMO

The composition of weed floras in Central European fields has shifted creating a novel management issue: new weeds, that is, species that are currently spreading and increasing in impact. In their role as primary decision makers on the ground, farmers' perception of these new weeds plays a pivotal role in collecting information on their occurrence and control. We conducted an online survey to determine if Austrian farmers recognized 15 selected new weed taxa (12 species and 3 genera) from their farm. The 181 surveyed farmers also estimated the required management effort for these species and elicited their current management practices. Additional questions were posed to understand farmers' general perception of changes in the weed flora. We used a generalized linear mixed model to estimate differences in management effort and identify new weeds that merit monitoring and management programs. Two weed genera (Fallopia spp. and Panicum spp.) showed significantly higher than average management effort. The most commonly used management measures were manual removal, herbicide use and crop rotation. A majority of farmers reported changes in the weed flora; over two thirds reported new species and over one third reported new weeds that were difficult to control. In summary, our results suggest that respondents were aware of the challenges posed by new weeds but required more information on management and prevention strategies.

5.
iScience ; 27(1): 108623, 2024 Jan 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38205243

RESUMO

Invasive alien species (IAS) adversely impact biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and socio-economics. Citizen science can be an effective tool for IAS surveillance, management, and research, providing large datasets over wide spatial extents and long time periods, with public participants generating knowledge that supports action. We demonstrate how citizen science has contributed knowledge across the biological invasion process, especially for early detection and distribution mapping. However, we recommend that citizen science could be used more for assessing impacts and evaluating the success of IAS management. Citizen science does have limitations, and we explore solutions to two key challenges: ensuring data accuracy and dealing with uneven spatial coverage of potential recorders (which limits the dataset's "fit for purpose"). Greater co-development of citizen science with public stakeholders will help us better realize its potential across the biological invasion process and across ecosystems globally while meeting the needs of participants, local communities, scientists, and decision-makers.

6.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 6244, 2023 10 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37828007

RESUMO

Darwin's naturalization conundrum describes two seemingly contradictory hypotheses regarding whether alien species closely or distantly related to native species should be more likely to naturalize in regional floras. Both expectations have accumulated empirical support, and whether such apparent inconsistency can be reconciled at the global scale is unclear. Here, using 219,520 native and 9,531 naturalized alien plant species across 487 globally distributed regions, we found a latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum. Naturalized alien plant species are more closely related to native species at higher latitudes than they are at lower latitudes, indicating a greater influence of preadaptation in harsher climates. Human landscape modification resulted in even steeper latitudinal clines by selecting aliens distantly related to natives in warmer and drier regions. Our results demonstrate that joint consideration of climatic and anthropogenic conditions is critical to reconciling Darwin's naturalization conundrum.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Magnoliopsida , Humanos , Cidadania , Espécies Introduzidas , Plantas
7.
Sci Adv ; 9(40): eadi1897, 2023 10 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37792943

RESUMO

Plant introductions outside their native ranges by humans have led to substantial ecological consequences. While we have gained considerable knowledge about intercontinental introductions, the distribution and determinants of intracontinental aliens remain poorly understood. Here, we studied naturalized (i.e., self-sustaining) intracontinental aliens using native and alien floras of 243 mainland regions in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. We revealed that 4510 plant species had intracontinental origins, accounting for 3.9% of all plant species and 56.7% of all naturalized species in these continents. In North America and Europe, the numbers of intracontinental aliens peaked at mid-latitudes, while the proportion peaked at high latitudes in Europe. Notably, we found predominant poleward naturalization, primarily due to larger native species pools in low-latitudes. Geographic and climatic distances constrained the naturalization of intracontinental aliens in Australia, Europe, and North America, but not in South America. These findings suggest that poleward naturalizations will accelerate, as high latitudes become suitable for more plant species due to climate change.


Assuntos
Cidadania , Mudança Climática , Humanos , Europa (Continente) , Plantas , América do Norte , Ecossistema
8.
Nat Ecol Evol ; 7(10): 1633-1644, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37652998

RESUMO

Human activities are causing global biotic redistribution, translocating species and providing them with opportunities to establish populations beyond their native ranges. Species originating from certain global regions, however, are disproportionately represented among naturalized aliens. The evolutionary imbalance hypothesis posits that differences in absolute fitness among biogeographic divisions determine outcomes when biotas mix. Here, we compile data from native and alien distributions for nearly the entire global seed plant flora and find that biogeographic conditions predicted to drive evolutionary imbalance act alongside climate and anthropogenic factors to shape flows of successful aliens among regional biotas. Successful aliens tend to originate from large, biodiverse regions that support abundant populations and where species evolve against a diverse backdrop of competitors and enemies. We also reveal that these same native distribution characteristics are shared among the plants that humans select for cultivation and economic use. In addition to influencing species' innate potentials as invaders, we therefore suggest that evolutionary imbalance shapes plants' relationships with humans, impacting which species are translocated beyond their native distributions.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Espécies Introduzidas , Humanos , Clima , Plantas , Sementes
9.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(17): 4924-4938, 2023 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37395619

RESUMO

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

10.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(30): e2300981120, 2023 07 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37459510

RESUMO

Assessing the distribution of geographically restricted and evolutionarily unique species and their underlying drivers is key to understanding biogeographical processes and critical for global conservation prioritization. Here, we quantified the geographic distribution and drivers of phylogenetic endemism for ~320,000 seed plants worldwide and identified centers and drivers of evolutionarily young (neoendemism) and evolutionarily old endemism (paleoendemism). Tropical and subtropical islands as well as tropical mountain regions displayed the world's highest phylogenetic endemism. Most tropical rainforest regions emerged as centers of paleoendemism, while most Mediterranean-climate regions showed high neoendemism. Centers where high neo- and paleoendemism coincide emerged on some oceanic and continental fragment islands, in Mediterranean-climate regions and parts of the Irano-Turanian floristic region. Global variation in phylogenetic endemism was well explained by a combination of past and present environmental factors (79.8 to 87.7% of variance explained) and most strongly related to environmental heterogeneity. Also, warm and wet climates, geographic isolation, and long-term climatic stability emerged as key drivers of phylogenetic endemism. Neo- and paleoendemism were jointly explained by climatic and geological history. Long-term climatic stability promoted the persistence of paleoendemics, while the isolation of oceanic islands and their unique geological histories promoted neoendemism. Mountainous regions promoted both neo- and paleoendemism, reflecting both diversification and persistence over time. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary underpinnings of biogeographical patterns in seed plants and identifies the areas on Earth with the highest evolutionary and biogeographical uniqueness-key information for setting global conservation priorities.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Evolução Biológica , Filogenia , Sementes , Geologia
11.
New Phytol ; 239(6): 2389-2403, 2023 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37438886

RESUMO

Karyological characteristics are among the traits underpinning the invasion success of vascular plants. Using 11 049 species, we tested the effects of genome size and ploidy levels on plant naturalization (species forming self-sustaining populations where they are not native) and invasion (naturalized species spreading rapidly and having environmental impact). The probability that a species naturalized anywhere in the world decreased with increasing monoploid genome size (DNA content of a single chromosome set). Naturalized or invasive species with intermediate monoploid genomes were reported from many regions, but those with either small or large genomes occurred in fewer regions. By contrast, large holoploid genome sizes (DNA content of the unreplicated gametic nucleus) constrained naturalization but favoured invasion. We suggest that a small genome is an advantage during naturalization, being linked to traits favouring adaptation to local conditions, but for invasive spread, traits associated with a large holoploid genome, where the impact of polyploidy may act, facilitate long-distance dispersal and competition with other species.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Traqueófitas , Tamanho do Genoma , Cidadania , Ploidias , Espécies Introduzidas , DNA
12.
Sustain Sci ; 18(2): 771-789, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37012996

RESUMO

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and environmental indices (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain country-level (1) established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and (2) proactive or reactive capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. These indices underpin many aspects of the invasion process, including the introduction, establishment, spread and management of alien species. They are also general enough to enable a global comparison across countries, and are therefore essential for defining future scenarios for biological invasions. Models including Trade, Governance, Lifestyle and Education, or a combination of these, best explained EAS richness across taxonomic groups and national proactive or reactive capacity. Historical (1996 or averaged over 1996-2015) levels of Governance and Trade better explained both EAS richness and the capacity of countries to manage invasions than more recent (2015) levels, revealing a historical legacy with important implications for the future of biological invasions. Using Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions, we identified four main clusters of countries in 2015. Most countries had an increase in Trade over the past 25 years, but trajectories were more geographically heterogeneous for Governance. Declines in levels of Governance are concerning as they may be responsible for larger levels of invasions in the future. By identifying the factors influencing EAS richness and the regions most susceptible to changes in these factors, our results provide novel insights to integrate biological invasions into scenarios of biodiversity change to better inform decision-making for policy and the management of biological invasions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01166-3.

13.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 2090, 2023 04 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37045818

RESUMO

While the regional distribution of non-native species is increasingly well documented for some taxa, global analyses of non-native species in local assemblages are still missing. Here, we use a worldwide collection of assemblages from five taxa - ants, birds, mammals, spiders and vascular plants - to assess whether the incidence, frequency and proportions of naturalised non-native species depend on type and intensity of land use. In plants, assemblages of primary vegetation are least invaded. In the other taxa, primary vegetation is among the least invaded land-use types, but one or several other types have equally low levels of occurrence, frequency and proportions of non-native species. High land use intensity is associated with higher non-native incidence and frequency in primary vegetation, while intensity effects are inconsistent for other land-use types. These findings highlight the potential dual role of unused primary vegetation in preserving native biodiversity and in conferring resistance against biological invasions.


Assuntos
Formigas , Ecossistema , Animais , Espécies Introduzidas , Incidência , Biodiversidade , Mamíferos
14.
Ecol Lett ; 26(5): 729-741, 2023 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36958810

RESUMO

Human-mediated changes in island vegetation are, among others, largely caused by the introduction and establishment of non-native species. However, data on past changes in non-native plant species abundance that predate historical documentation and censuses are scarce. Islands are among the few places where we can track human arrival in natural systems allowing us to reveal changes in vegetation dynamics with the arrival of non-native species. We matched fossil pollen data with botanical status information (native, non-native), and quantified the timing, trajectories and magnitude of non-native plant vegetational change on 29 islands over the past 5000 years. We recorded a proportional increase in pollen of non-native plant taxa within the last 1000 years. Individual island trajectories are context-dependent and linked to island settlement histories. Our data show that non-native plant introductions have a longer and more dynamic history than is generally recognized, with critical implications for biodiversity baselines and invasion biology.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Plantas , Humanos , Pólen , Ilhas , Espécies Introduzidas
15.
Biol Invasions ; 25(1): 27-38, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36643959

RESUMO

Fungal invasions can have far-reaching consequences, and despite increasing relevance, fungi are notoriously underrepresented in invasion science. Here, we present the second annotated checklist for alien and cryptogenic fungi and oomycetes in Austria. This list contains 375 taxa of which 278 are classified as established; compared to the first checklist from 2002, this amounts to an almost five-fold increase and the number of decade-wise first records is steadily rising since the mid-twentieth century. The introduction pathway is unclear for the vast majority of taxa, while the main means of spread within the country is unassisted secondary spread. Fungi were predominantly introduced from the Northern Hemisphere, especially North America and Temperate Asia. Rates of newly recorded alien fungi differ among phyla; the majority belongs to the Ascomycota, which experienced an 9.6-fold increase in numbers. Orders found most frequently are powdery mildews (Erysiphales, Ascomycota), downy mildews (Peronosporales, Oomycota), agarics (Agaricales, Basidiomycota), Mycosphaerellales (Ascomycota), rusts (Pucciniales, Basidiomycota) and Pleosporales (Ascomycota). The majority (about 80%) of the taxa are plant pathogens, while animal pathogens are few but severely affecting their native hosts. The dominance of pathogens in our checklist underlines the need of better tackling fungal invasions-especially in the light of emerging infectious diseases-and highlights potential knowledge gaps for ectomycorrhizal and saprobic alien fungi, whose invasion processes are often much more inconspicuous. Our results show that fungal invasions are a phenomenon of increasing importance, and collaborative efforts are needed for advancing the knowledge and management of this important group. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02896-2.

16.
New Phytol ; 237(4): 1432-1445, 2023 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36375492

RESUMO

Despite the paramount role of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and human welfare, knowledge of its global distribution is still incomplete, hampering basic research and biodiversity conservation. Here, we used machine learning (random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks) and conventional statistical methods (generalized linear models and generalized additive models) to test environment-related hypotheses of broad-scale vascular plant diversity gradients and to model and predict species richness and phylogenetic richness worldwide. To this end, we used 830 regional plant inventories including c. 300 000 species and predictors of past and present environmental conditions. Machine learning showed a superior performance, explaining up to 80.9% of species richness and 83.3% of phylogenetic richness, illustrating the great potential of such techniques for disentangling complex and interacting associations between the environment and plant diversity. Current climate and environmental heterogeneity emerged as the primary drivers, while past environmental conditions left only small but detectable imprints on plant diversity. Finally, we combined predictions from multiple modeling techniques (ensemble predictions) to reveal global patterns and centers of plant diversity at multiple resolutions down to 7774 km2 . Our predictive maps provide accurate estimates of global plant diversity available at grain sizes relevant for conservation and macroecology.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Humanos , Filogenia , Clima , Modelos Lineares , Plantas
17.
Sci Total Environ ; 861: 160576, 2023 Feb 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36462656

RESUMO

With ongoing global urbanization processes and consumption patterns increasingly recognized as key determinants of environmental change, a better understanding of the links between urban consumption and biodiversity loss is paramount. Here we quantify the global biodiversity footprint (BDF) of Vienna's (Austria) biomass consumption. We present a state-of-the-art product specific approach to (a) locate the production areas required for Vienna's consumption and map Vienna's BDF by (b) linking them with data taken from a previously published countryside Species-Area-Relationship (cSAR) model with a representation of land-use intensity. We found that food has the largest share in Vienna's BDF (58 %), followed by biomass for material applications (28 %) and bioenergy (13 %). The total BDF occurs predominantly within Austria and in its neighbouring countries, with ~20 % located outside Europe. Although the per capita biomass consumption in Vienna is above the global average, global and Viennese per capita BDFs are roughly equal, indicating that Vienna sources its products from high-yield regions with efficient production systems and comparatively low native species richness. We conclude that, among others, dietary changes offer a key leverage point for reducing the urban BDF, while expanding the use of biomass for material and energy use may increase the BDF and requires appropriate monitoring.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Urbanização , Cidades , Biomassa , Áustria
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(1): e2201911120, 2023 01 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36574645

RESUMO

Our ability to predict the spread of alien species is largely based on knowledge of previous invasion dynamics of individual species. However, in view of the large and growing number of alien species, understanding universal spread patterns common among taxa but specific to regions would considerably improve our ability to predict future dynamics of biological invasions. Here, using a comprehensive dataset of years of first record of alien species for four major biological groups (birds, nonmarine fishes, insects, and vascular plants), we applied a network approach to uncover frequent sequential patterns of first recordings of alien species across countries worldwide. Our analysis identified a few countries as consistent early recorders of alien species, with many subsequent records reported from countries in close geographic vicinity. These findings indicate that the spread network of alien species consists of two levels, a backbone of main dispersal hubs, driving intercontinental species movement, and subsequent intracontinental radiative spread in their vicinity. Geographical proximity and climatic similarity were significant predictors of same-species recording among countries. International trade was a significant predictor of the relative timing of species recordings, with countries having higher levels of trade flows consistently recording the species earlier. Targeting the countries that have emerged as hubs for the early spread of alien species may have substantial cascading effects on the global spread network of alien species, significantly reducing biological invasions. Furthermore, using these countries as early-warning system of upcoming invasions may also boost national prevention and invasion preparedness efforts.


Assuntos
Espécies Introduzidas , Traqueófitas , Animais , Comércio , Internacionalidade , Aves
19.
J Appl Ecol ; 60(4): 696-713, 2023 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38504807

RESUMO

Standing deadwood is an important structural component of forest ecosystems. Its occurrence and dynamics influence both carbon fluxes and the availability of habitats for many species. However, deadwood is greatly reduced in managed, and even in many currently unmanaged temperate forests in Europe. To date, few studies have examined how environmental factors, forest management and changing climate affect the availability of standing deadwood and its dynamics.Data from five periods of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (1981-2009) were used to (I) analyse standing deadwood volume in relation to living volume stock, elevation, eco-region, forest type, ownership and management intensity, (II) investigate the influence of forest ownership and management intensity on snag persistence and (III) define drivers of standing deadwood volume loss for seven tree genera (Abies, Alnus, Fagus, Larix, Picea, Pinus and Quercus) using tree-related, site-related and climate-related variables, and predict volume loss under two climate change scenarios.Standing deadwood volume was mainly determined by living volume stock and elevation, resulting in different distributions between eco-regions. While forest type and management intensity influenced standing deadwood volume only slightly, the latter exhibited a significant effect on persistence. Snag persistence was shorter in intensively managed forests than in extensively managed forests and shorter in private than in public forests.Standing deadwood volume loss was driven by a combination of diameter at breast height, elevation, as well as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Volume loss under climate change predictions revealed constant rates for moderate climate change (RCP2.6) by the end of the 21st century. Under severe climate change conditions (RCP8.5), volume loss increased for most tree genera, with Quercus, Alnus and Picea showing different predictions depending on the model used as the baseline scenario. We observed trends towards faster volume loss at higher temperatures and lower elevations and slower volume loss at high precipitation levels. The tree genera most susceptible to climate change were Pinus and Fagus, while Abies was least susceptible. Synthesis and applications. We recommend to protect standing dead trees from regular harvesting to ensure the full decomposition process. The consequences for decomposition-dependent species must be taken into account to evaluate the influences of management and climate change on standing deadwood dynamics.

20.
Glob Ecol Biogeogr ; 32(6): 855-866, 2023 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38504954

RESUMO

Aim: Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe. Location: Global. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Birds, mammals and amphibians. Methods: Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a "species-energy model" by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in "wilderness" areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists. Results: Species-energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R 2-values: 0.79-0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species-area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity loss.

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