Revealing the evolution of spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion using mathematical modelling and emerging hotspot analysis.

The rapid expansion of cities in developing countries has led to many environmental problems, and the mechanism of urban expansion (UE), as a more complex human-land coupled system, has always been a difficult issue to research. This paper introduces a new approach by establishing an analytical framework for spatiotemporal pattern mining, exemplified by studying the urban growth of Changsha City from 1990 to 2019. Initially, an emerging hotspot analysis model (EHA) is employed to examine the spatiotemporal changes of urban growth on a macro scale. Mathematical models are subsequently utilized to quantify the correlations between urban expansion and selected infrastructural and topographical factors. Building on these findings, the paper constructs mathematical models to further quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of various urban sprawl patterns across different regions, aiming to elucidate and quantify the significant variations in UE over time and space. The study reveals that, as an emerging city, Changsha's hotspots of urban expansion prior to 2003 were primarily concentrated in the city centre, subsequently spreading to the periphery. The radial influence of metro stations on UE is notably less than that of railway stations-approximately 3 km versus 8 km-and the impact diminishes rapidly before gradually tapering off. Moreover, UE in Changsha predominantly occurs on slopes with gradients ranging from 1.1° to 7.5°, and significant development capacity is observed at elevations between 36.1 m and 78.3 m above sea level, with a tendency for urban sprawl to migrate to lower elevations. The paper also identifies three distinct patterns of urban expansion across different regions: an initial slow-growth phase, followed by a rapid escalation to a peak, and subsequently a swift decline to near stagnation. Additionally, it highlights a significant correlation between the proportion of built-up areas at the micro-regional scale and the stages of UE. This correlation was quantitatively analysed by constructing a logistic function, which demonstrated a robust fit that effectively captures spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the dynamics of UE. These insights enhance the selection of drivers in urban simulation models and deepen the understanding of the complex dynamics that influence urban development.

Urban Ecological Environment Quality Evaluation and Territorial Spatial Planning Response: Application to Changsha, Central China.

Scientific territorial spatial planning is of great significance in the realization of the sustainable development goals in China, especially in the context of China's ecological civilization construction and territorial spatial planning. However, limited research has been carried out to understand the spatio-temporal change in EEQ and territorial spatial planning. In this study, Changsha County and six districts of Changsha City were selected as the research objects. Based on the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) model, the spatio-temporal changes in the EEQ and spatial planning response in the study area during 2003-2018 were analyzed. The results reveal that (1) the EEQ of Changsha declined and then rose between 2003 and 2018, showing an overall decreasing trend. The average RSEI declined from 0.532 in 2003 to 0.500 in 2014 and then increased to 0.523 in 2018, with an overall decrease of 1.7%. (2) In terms of spatial pattern changes, the Xingma Group, the Airport Group and the Huangli Group in the east of the Xiangjiang River had the most serious EEQ degradation. The EEQ degradation of Changsha showed an expanding and polycentric decentralized grouping pattern. (3) Massive construction land expansion during rapid urbanization caused significant EEQ degradation in Changsha. Particularly, the areas with low EEQ were concentrated in the areas with concentrated industrial land. Scientific territorial spatial planning and strict control were conducive to regional EEQ improvement. (4) The prediction using the urban ecological model demonstrates that every 0.549 unit increase in NDVI or 0.2 unit decrease in NDBSI can improve the RSEI of the study area by 0.1 unit, thus improving EEQ. In the future territorial spatial planning and construction of Changsha, it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of low-end industries into high-end manufacturing industries and control the scale of inefficient industrial land. The EEQ degradation caused by industrial land expansion needs to be noted. All of these findings can provide valuable information for relevant decision-makers to formulate ecological environment protection strategies and conduct future territorial spatial planning.

Stage response of vegetation dynamics to urbanization in megacities: A case study of Changsha City, China.

Urban vegetation affects urban microclimate and maintains biodiversity, which is vital to the social-ecological system. However, there is a lack of research on quantitatively identifying urbanization stage impact on vegetation dynamics, and the stage difference in the response of vegetation dynamics to urbanization characteristics is not clear. In this study, taking Changsha City as an example, we explored the response of vegetation dynamics to urbanization, and identified the impact stages of urbanization on vegetation dynamics as well as their social-ecological characteristics. The results showed that the vegetation dynamics in Changsha City presented spatial pattern of "increase-decrease-increase" from downtown to outside in the past 20 years. The population density, GDP density and construction land proportion firstly inhibited vegetation growth, and then promoted it, with the turning points of 141.58 million yuan/km2, 1205 person/km2, and 19.80 %, respectively. Then, the urbanization impact on vegetation dynamics was quantitatively divided into three stages according to the vegetation change speed, and in different stages, urbanization impacts on vegetation dynamics were compared. This study illustrated the typical stage feature of the urbanization impact on vegetation dynamics.

Epidemiological characteristics of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis and pre-extensively drug resistant tuberculosis in Changsha, 2018-2021 / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective　To understand the situation of drug-resistant tuberculosis screening and epidemiological characteristics of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and pre-extensively drug resistant tuberculosis (pre-XDR-TB) in Changsha, in order to provide a scientific basis for improving the quality of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevention and control in the city. Methods　Demographic information and drug susceptibility date of etiologically positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Changsha from 2018 to 2021 were collected, the successful rate of resistance screening, incidence and tendency in MDR-TB and pre-XDR-TB in patients included in this study were statistically analyzed accordingly. 　　Results From 2018 to 2021, the successful screening rates were 86.2%, 87.7%, 81.9% and 71.5% for MDR-TB and 82.2%, 84.8%, 76.9% and 68.2% for pre-XDR-TB, respectively. In each year, MDR-TB patients identified accounted for 7.6% (101/1 222), 6.5%(124/1 774), 6.6%(110/1 555) and 6.3%(99/1 478), and pre-XDR-TB patients identified accounted for 3.6%(46/1 219), 3.8%(69/1 766), 4.4%(69/1 495) and 4.6%(69/1 436), correspondingly. The incidence of MDR-TB showed a slowly downward trend, while the incidence of pre-MDR-TB showed a slowly upward trend, with neither decreasing nor increasing trends being statistically significant (（χ2=1.947，0.806，P>0.050). The incidence of MDR-TB in the retreatment failure population was 66.6% (2/3), and the others, failure initial treatment and recrudescence populations were 23.5% (19/81), 16.7% (2/12) and 15.2% (70/461), respectively. Similar to the incidence above, the incidence of pre-XDR-TB was 16.7% (2/12) among patients who failed in initial treatment, and 12.2% (9/74), 9.8% (43/439), and 4.5% (2/44) among the others, recrudescence and returned patients, respectively. The incidence rates of MDR-TB and pre-XDR-TB in different populations were significantly different (χ2=117.600，59.030，P<0.05). Conclusions There are still areas for improvement in tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance system in Changsha. On the premise of paying attention to patients in retreatment failure, other, initial treatment failure and relapse patients, high sensitivity molecular drug susceptibility testing, and scientifically efficient screening strategies must be explored.

Complete genome analysis of coxsackievirus A2 and A5 strains in Changsha / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective　To investigate the molecular characteristic and evolutionary trends of full-genome sequences of coxsackievirus A2 (CV-A2) and A5 (CV-A5) in Changsha City. Methods　The CV-A2 and CV-A5 strains were isolated and detected from patients with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases. The full-genome sequences of CV-A2 and CV-A5 strains were obtained using NGS sequencing. Homology and phylogenetic tree analysis were performed, and the recombination regions of the strains were examined by SimPlot software. Results　The full-genome sequences of CV-A2 and CV-A5 strains were obtained from routine surveillance cases of HFMD in Changsha in 2019. The CV-A2 strain was named S281/Changsha/CHN/2019 with the full-genome sequence of 7 422 bp long; the CV-A5 strain was named S272/Changsha/CHN/2019 with the full-genome sequence of 7 425 bp long. Homology analysis of the isolates by comparison with the nucleic acid sequences of CV-A2 and other CV-A2 strains in China showed that the non-structural protein region shared lower similarity than that of structural protein region. The CV-A2 showed 79.20% similarity with Fleetwood strain (NC038306), showed the highest similarity 95.60% with MN419014 strain from Hubei Province. The non-structural protein 3C and 3D region shared the lowest similarity with MN419014, 90.51 and 92.06%, respectively. Phylogenetic tree analysis showed that 3C and 3D regions were located in the CV-A4 branch. Amino acid mutation sites were found in non-structural protein region, and the amino acid sequence in structural protein region was conserved. SimPlot analysis showed that genetic recombination was found in the 3C and 3D region of CV-A2 strains. The full-genome sequence of CV-A5 showed 80.7% similarity with the Swartz (AY421763) and 97.43% similarity with the strain (MH111030) from Australian. Homology analysis showed that the non-structural protein region shared lower similarity than that of structural protein region, based on full-genome of CV-A5. Phylogenetic tree analysis showed that CV-A5 and MH111030 were in the same branch, indicating that CV-A5 strain not from local. The amino acid sequence of CV-A5 strain was conserved. Conclusions　The CV-A2 strain in Changsha City shared genome sequence information with CV-A4, and the CV-A5 strain was imported from abroad. Our findings are expected to understand the molecular and recombination characteristics of CV-A2 and CV-A5, provided the data of evolution and genetic features of the coxsackievirus, and interrupt disease transmission in a timely and effective manner.