Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis.

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

Investigating impact of CORDEX-based predicted climatic and LCM-based LULC scenarios on hydrologic response of a semi-gauged Indian catchment.

The present study aims at documenting the impact of different climate and land use change scenarios on runoff in the Kangsabati River basin. While the study relies on India Meteorological Department (IMD), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Physical Sciences Laboratory (NOAA-PSL), and a multi-model ensemble of six driving models from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-Regional Climate Models (CORDEX RCM) for climate data input, it depends on IDRISI Selva's Land Change Modeller (LCM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to generate projected land use land change maps and simulate its streamflow response, respectively. A total of four land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios, representing four projected land use change, were modelled across three climatic scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). With runoff being predominantly impacted more by climate change than LULC, volumetric runoff is expected to be 12-46% higher than the baseline period of 1982-2017. Conversely, while surface runoff is expected to decrease by 4-28% in lower parts of the basin, it will increase by 2-39% in the rest of it, depending on the subtle alterations in land use and climatic variability.

Thermal behavior of a two-story concrete building under controlled winter and heat wave scenarios in the sense-city equipment through temperature, flux and energy consumption dataset.

The article describes thermal datasets collected in a two-story concrete building of the Sense-City equipment during various controlled climatic scenarios. Using the Sense-City climatic chamber, we reproduced stationary thermal conditions, a typical winter climate of the south of France and Paris 2003 heat wave. Each of the three scenarios has a duration of about one week. The datasets contain temperature, heat flux and energy consumption sensor outputs. In [1], the stationary conditions data were exploited for an experimental identification of thermal characteristics of the building whereas the winter and the heat wave data were used in a goal-oriented model updating technique. The datasets can also be useful to validate modeling and simulation.

Predicting the consequences of global warming on Gentiana lutea germination at the edge of its distributional and ecological range.

BACKGROUND: Temperature is the main environmental factor controlling seed germination; it determines both the percentage and the rate of germination. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean surface temperature could increase of approximately 2-4 °C by 2090-2099. As a consequence of global warming, the period of snow cover is decreasing on several mountain areas. Thermal time approach can be used to characterise the seed germination of plants and to evaluate the germination behaviour under the climate change scenarios. In this study, the effect of different cold stratification periods on seed dormancy release and germination of Gentiana lutea subsp. lutea, a taxon listed in Annex V of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), was evaluated. Furthermore, the thermal requirements and the consequences of the temperature rise for seed germination of this species were estimated. In addition, a conceptual representation of the thermal time approach is presented. METHODS: Seeds of G. lutea subsp. lutea were harvested from at least 50 randomly selected plants in two representative localities of the Gennargentu massif (Sardinia). Germination tests were carried out under laboratory conditions and the responses at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 °C were recorded. Different cold stratification pre-treatments at 1 ± 1 °C (i.e. 0, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days) were applied. Successively, the base temperature (T b) and the number of thermal units (θ, °Cd) for germination were estimated. Additionally, this study examined the consequences of an increase in temperatures based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) scenarios. RESULTS: The results indicated that from 0 to 30 days of cold stratification, the germination was null or very low. After 60 and 90 days of cold stratification the seed dormancy was removed; however, 25 and 30 °C negatively affected the germination capacity of non-dormant seeds. Seeds cold-stratified for 90 days showed a lower T b than those stratified for 60 days. However, 60 and 90 days of cold stratification did not cause great variations in the thermal time units. Analysing the RPC scenarios, we detected that the number of days useful for dormancy release of seeds of G. lutea may be less than 30 days, a condition that does not permit an effective dormancy release. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that seeds of G. lutea need at least 60 days of cold stratification to remove dormancy and promote the germination. The thermal time model developed in this work allowed us to identify the thermal threshold requirements of seed germination of this species, increasing the knowledge of a plant threatened by global warming. Our results emphasise the need for further studies aiming at a better characterisation of germination efficiency, especially for species that require cold stratification. This would improve the knowledge on the germination mechanisms of adaptation to different future global warming conditions.

Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha-1  yr-1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development.