Quality indices for topic model selection and evaluation: a literature review and case study.

BACKGROUND: Topic models are a class of unsupervised machine learning models, which facilitate summarization, browsing and retrieval from large unstructured document collections. This study reviews several methods for assessing the quality of unsupervised topic models estimated using non-negative matrix factorization. Techniques for topic model validation have been developed across disparate fields. We synthesize this literature, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different techniques for topic model validation, and illustrate their usefulness for guiding model selection on a large clinical text corpus. DESIGN, SETTING AND DATA: Using a retrospective cohort design, we curated a text corpus containing 382,666 clinical notes collected between 01/01/2017 through 12/31/2020 from primary care electronic medical records in Toronto Canada. METHODS: Several topic model quality metrics have been proposed to assess different aspects of model fit. We explored the following metrics: reconstruction error, topic coherence, rank biased overlap, Kendall's weighted tau, partition coefficient, partition entropy and the Xie-Beni statistic. Depending on context, cross-validation and/or bootstrap stability analysis were used to estimate these metrics on our corpus. RESULTS: Cross-validated reconstruction error favored large topic models (K ≥ 100 topics) on our corpus. Stability analysis using topic coherence and the Xie-Beni statistic also favored large models (K = 100 topics). Rank biased overlap and Kendall's weighted tau favored small models (K = 5 topics). Few model evaluation metrics suggested mid-sized topic models (25 ≤ K ≤ 75) as being optimal. However, human judgement suggested that mid-sized topic models produced expressive low-dimensional summarizations of the corpus. CONCLUSIONS: Topic model quality indices are transparent quantitative tools for guiding model selection and evaluation. Our empirical illustration demonstrated that different topic model quality indices favor models of different complexity; and may not select models aligning with human judgment. This suggests that different metrics capture different aspects of model goodness of fit. A combination of topic model quality indices, coupled with human validation, may be useful in appraising unsupervised topic models.

Using ICD-9 diagnostic codes for external validation of topic models derived from primary care electronic medical record clinical text data.

Background/Objectives: Unsupervised topic models are often used to facilitate improved understanding of large unstructured clinical text datasets. In this study we investigated how ICD-9 diagnostic codes, collected alongside clinical text data, could be used to establish concurrent-, convergent- and discriminant-validity of learned topic models. Design/Setting: Retrospective open cohort design. Data were collected from primary care clinics located in Toronto, Canada between 01/01/2017 through 12/31/2020. Methods: We fit a non-negative matrix factorization topic model, with K = 50 latent topics/themes, to our input document term matrix (DTM). We estimated the magnitude of association between each Boolean-valued ICD-9 diagnostic code and each continuous latent topical vector. We identified ICD-9 diagnostic codes most strongly associated with each latent topical vector; and qualitatively interpreted how these codes could be used for external validation of the learned topic model. Results: The DTM consisted of 382,666 documents and 2210 words/tokens. We correlated concurrently assigned ICD-9 diagnostic codes with learned topical vectors, and observed semantic agreement for a subset of latent constructs (e.g. conditions of the breast, disorders of the female genital tract, respiratory disease, viral infection, eye/ear/nose/throat conditions, conditions of the urinary system, and dermatological conditions, etc.). Conclusions: When fitting topic models to clinical text corpora, researchers can leverage contemporaneously collected electronic medical record data to investigate the external validity of fitted latent variable models.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Temporal Topic Models From Primary Care Clinical Text Data: Retrospective Closed Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care organizations are collecting increasing volumes of clinical text data. Topic models are a class of unsupervised machine learning algorithms for discovering latent thematic patterns in these large unstructured document collections. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to comparatively evaluate several methods for estimating temporal topic models using clinical notes obtained from primary care electronic medical records from Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We used a retrospective closed cohort design. The study spanned from January 01, 2011, through December 31, 2015, discretized into 20 quarterly periods. Patients were included in the study if they generated at least 1 primary care clinical note in each of the 20 quarterly periods. These patients represented a unique cohort of individuals engaging in high-frequency use of the primary care system. The following temporal topic modeling algorithms were fitted to the clinical note corpus: nonnegative matrix factorization, latent Dirichlet allocation, the structural topic model, and the BERTopic model. RESULTS: Temporal topic models consistently identified latent topical patterns in the clinical note corpus. The learned topical bases identified meaningful activities conducted by the primary health care system. Latent topics displaying near-constant temporal dynamics were consistently estimated across models (eg, pain, hypertension, diabetes, sleep, mood, anxiety, and depression). Several topics displayed predictable seasonal patterns over the study period (eg, respiratory disease and influenza immunization programs). CONCLUSIONS: Nonnegative matrix factorization, latent Dirichlet allocation, structural topic model, and BERTopic are based on different underlying statistical frameworks (eg, linear algebra and optimization, Bayesian graphical models, and neural embeddings), require tuning unique hyperparameters (optimizers, priors, etc), and have distinct computational requirements (data structures, computational hardware, etc). Despite the heterogeneity in statistical methodology, the learned latent topical summarizations and their temporal evolution over the study period were consistently estimated. Temporal topic models represent an interesting class of models for characterizing and monitoring the primary health care system.