Speculative computing for AAFM solutions in large-scale product configurations.

Parallel computing is a current algorithmic approach to looking for efficient solutions; that is, to define a set of processes in charge of performing at the same time the same task. Advances in hardware permit the massification of accessibility to and applications of parallel computing. Nonetheless, some algorithms include steps that require or depend on the results of other steps that cannot be parallelized. Speculative computing allows parallelizing those tasks and reviewing different execution flows, which can involve executing invalid steps. Speculative computing solutions should reduce those invalid flows. Product configuration refers to selecting features from a set of available options respecting some configuration constraints; a not complex task for small configurations and models, but a complex one for large-scale scenarios. This article exemplifies a videogame product line feature model and a few configurations, valid and non-valid, respectively. Configuring products of large-scale feature models is a complex and time-demanding task requiring algorithmic solutions. Hence, parallel solutions are highly desired to assist the feature model product configuration tasks. Existing solutions follow a sequential computing approach and include steps that depend on others that cannot be parallelized at all, where the speculative computing approach is necessary. This article describes traditional sequential solutions for conflict detection and diagnosis, two relevant tasks in the automated analysis of feature models, and how to define their speculative parallel version, highlighting their computing improvements. Given the current parallel computing world, we remark on the advantages and current applicability of speculative computing for producing faster algorithmic solutions.

DUHI: Dynamically updated hash index clustering method for DNA storage.

The exponential growth of global data leads to the problem of insufficient data storage capacity. DNA storage can be an ideal storage method due to its high storage density and long storage time. However, the DNA storage process is subject to unavoidable errors that can lead to increased cluster redundancy during data reading, which in turn affects the accuracy of the data reads. This paper proposes a dynamically updated hash index (DUHI) clustering method for DNA storage, which clusters sequences by constructing a dynamic core index set and using hash lookup. The proposed clustering method is analyzed in terms of overall reliability evaluation and visualization evaluation. The results show that the DUHI clustering method can reduce the redundancy of more than 10% of the sequences within the cluster and increase the reconstruction rate of the sequences to more than 99%. Therefore, our method solves the high redundancy problem after DNA sequence clustering, improves the accuracy of data reading, and promotes the development of DNA storage.

Eye Movements, Pupil Dilation, and Conflict Detection in Reasoning: Exploring the Evidence for Intuitive Logic.

A controversial claim in recent dual process accounts of reasoning is that intuitive processes not only lead to bias but are also sensitive to the logical status of an argument. The intuitive logic hypothesis draws upon evidence that reasoners take longer and are less confident on belief-logic conflict problems, irrespective of whether they give the correct logical response. In this paper, we examine conflict detection under conditions in which participants are asked to either judge the logical validity or believability of a presented conclusion, accompanied by measures of eye movement and pupil dilation. The findings show an effect of conflict, under both types of instruction, on accuracy, latency, gaze shifts, and pupil dilation. Importantly, these effects extend to conflict trials in which participants give a belief-based response (incorrectly under logic instructions or correctly under belief instructions) demonstrating both behavioral and physiological evidence in support of the logical intuition hypothesis.

Conflict detection and base-rate extremity.

People tend to ignore the probabilistic rules cued by the base-rate information and rely on the heuristic intuition cued by the descriptive information to make "stereotypical" responses in base-rate problems. Conflict detection studies have shown that reasoners can detect conflicts between heuristic intuition and probabilistic considerations despite ultimately stereotypical responses. However, these studies primarily used extreme base-rate tasks. A critical open question is the extent to which successful conflict detection relies on an extreme base rate. The present study explores this issue by manipulating the base-rate extremity of problems in which the descriptive information and the base-rate information conflict or not. As a result, when reasoners made stereotypical responses in the conflict version of the moderate base-rate task, they took longer to respond, had lower confidence in their responses, and were slower to evaluate their confidence than in the no-conflict version of the task. All three measures indicate that stereotypical reasoners can stably detect conflict in moderate base-rate tasks, which expands the scope of successful conflict detection. Moreover, our response confidence data found a larger detection effect size in the extreme base-rate condition than in the moderate base-rate condition. This suggests that conflict detection is more efficient as the base-rate extremity increases. Implications for the boundary conditions of conflict detection are discussed.

Overconfidence in the Cognitive Reflection Test: Comparing Confidence Resolution for Reasoning vs. General Knowledge.

This research examines the metacognitive awareness that people have about their reasoning performance in the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). The first two studies compare confidence judgments about the CRT vs. general knowledge (GK) questions. Results show that (1) people are generally able to discriminate between correct and incorrect answers, but this ability is far from perfect, and it is greater for GK questions than for CRT problems. Indeed, and strikingly, (2) incorrect responses to CRT problems are produced with approximately the same level of confidence as correct responses to GK questions. However, (3) even though confidence is high for incorrect responses to CRT problems, it is even higher for correct responses. The results of two additional studies show that these differences in confidence are ultimately related to the conflict that CRT problems pose between intuition and deliberation. These findings have implications for the possibility of implicit error monitoring and dual-process models of overconfidence.

Conflict Detection in Moderate Base-Rate Tasks: A Multi-Measure Study.

Empirical studies have found that although humans often rely on heuristic intuition to make stereotypical judgments during extreme base-rate tasks, they can at least detect conflicts between stereotypical and base-rate responses, which supports the dual-processing view of flawless conflict detection. The current study combines the conflict detection paradigm with moderate base-rate tasks of different scales to test the generalization and boundaries of flawless conflict detection. After controlling for possible confounding by the "storage failure" factor, the conflict detection results indicated that reasoners providing stereotypical heuristic responses to conflict problems were slower to respond, less confident in their stereotypical responses, and slower to indicate their reduced confidence than reasoners who answered no-conflict problems. Moreover, none of these differences were affected by different scales. The results suggest that stereotypical reasoners are not blind heuristic performers and that they at least realize that their heuristic responses are not entirely warranted, which supports the argument for flawless conflict detection and extends the boundaries of flawless conflict detection. We discuss the implications of these findings for views of detection, human rationality, and the boundaries of conflict detection.

Illusory intuitive inferences: Matching heuristics explain logical intuitions.

The capacity to evaluate logical arguments intuitively is a fundamental assumption of recent dual-process theories. One observation supporting this effect is the standard conflict effect on incongruent arguments under belief instruction. Conflict arguments are evaluated less accurately than non-conflict arguments, arguably because logic is intuitive and automatic enough to interfere with belief judgments. However, recent studies have challenged this interpretation by finding the same conflict effects when a matching heuristic cues the same response as logic, even on arguments with no logically valid structures. In this study, we test the matching heuristic hypothesis across 4 experiments (total N = 409) by manipulating the arguments propositions so that matching cues a response that is either (1) aligned or (2) misaligned with logic, or (3) cues no response at all. Consistent with the predictions of the matching heuristic, standard, reversed, and no conflict effects were found in those conditions, respectively. These results indicate that intuitively correct inferences which are assumed as evidence of logical intuitions are actually driven by a matching heuristic that cues responses aligned with logic. Alleged intuitive logic effects are reversed when the matching heuristic cues an opposing logical response or disappears when there are no matching cues. Therefore, it appears as though the operation of a matching heuristic, rather than an intuitive access to logic, drives logical intuitions.

Single-Heuristic Reasoning: Is It Still Dual-Process?

Traditionally, paradigms used to study conflict in reasoning (and metacognition during reasoning) pit heuristic processes against analytical processes. Findings indicate that the presence of conflict between processes prolongs reasoning and decreases accuracy and confidence. In this study, we aimed to explore reasoning and metacognition when only one type of heuristic process is exploited to cue multiple responses. In two experiments, a novel modification of the Base Rate neglect task was used to create versions in which one belief-based heuristic competes, or works in concert, with another of the same type to provide a response. Experiment 1 results reveal that the presence of conflict between cued responses does not affect meta-reasoning, which indicates that reasoning defaulted to a single process. An alternative explanation was that the effect of conflict was masked due to an imbalance in the strength of the dominant response between conflicting and congruent versions. Experiment 2 was designed to test hypotheses based on these competing explanations. Findings show that when the strength of a response was no longer masking the effect, the conflict did result in longer reasoning times and lower confidence. The study provides more robust evidence in favor of the dual-process account of reasoning, introduces a new methodological approach, and discusses how conflict may be modulated during reasoning.

Learning Assurance Analysis for Further Certification Process of Machine Learning Techniques: Case-Study Air Traffic Conflict Detection Predictor.

Designing and developing artificial intelligence (AI)-based systems that can be trusted justifiably is one of the main issues aviation must face in the coming years. European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has developed a user guide that could be potentially transformed as means of compliance for future AI-based regulation. Designers and developers must understand how the learning assurance process of any machine learning (ML) model impacts trust. ML is a narrow branch of AI that uses statistical models to perform predictions. This work deals with the learning assurance process for ML-based systems in the field of air traffic control. A conflict detection tool has been developed to identify separation infringements among aircraft pairs, and the ML algorithm used for classification and regression was extreme gradient boosting. This paper analyses the validity and adaptability of EASA W-shaped methodology for ML-based systems. The results have identified the lack of the EASA W-shaped methodology in time-dependent analysis, by showing how time can impact ML algorithms designed in the case where no time requirements are considered. Another meaningful conclusion is, for systems that depend highly on when the prediction is made, classification and regression metrics cannot be one-size-fits-all because they vary over time.

Electrophysiological correlates of proportion congruency manipulation in a temporal flanker task.

Response conflict evoked by a distractor stimulus object in interference tasks is associated with longer reaction times and a pronounced ERP component referred to as the fronto-central N2. Increasing the proportion congruency (PC, i.e., the proportion of trials in which target and distractor are associated with the same response) is assumed to enhance distractor-evoked conflict via defocusing of attention. Findings concerning the effect of the PC on the N2 in Eriksen flanker task experiments have been inconsistent, however, lending little support to the notion that the N2 reflects a conflict monitoring process. Here, we analyze the N2 in a temporal flanker task, in which the distractor stimuli, presented in advance of the target, elicit pronounced activation of the associated responses (as inferred from the lateralized readiness potential) when the PC is high. Consistent with result pattern obtained in other tasks involving successive presentation of the distractor and the target, conflict trials in a high-PC condition evoked a particularly large N2. These findings accord with the assumption that the N2 reflects either conflict monitoring or conflict-induced regulatory measures (i.e., reactive control). In light of the discrepancy of results obtained under conditions of simultaneous and successive distractor-target presentation, we speculate that the N2 is pronounced in situations that offer strong hints for classifying dominating response activation as incorrect, possibly reflecting particular control to counter this activation. Additional properties of the temporal flanker task, related to ERP investigations, are discussed.

Impact of Spatial Orientation Ability on Air Traffic Conflict Detection in a Simulated Free Route Airspace Environment.

In the selection of job candidates who have the mental ability to become professional ATCOs, psychometric testing has been a ubiquitous activity in the ATM domain. To contribute to psychometric research in the ATM domain, we investigated the extent to which spatial orientation ability (SOA), as conceptualized in the spatial cognition and navigation literature, predicted air traffic conflict detection performance in a simulated free route airspace (FRA) environment. The implementation of free route airspace (FRA) over the past few years, notably in Europe, have facilitated air traffic services by giving greater flexibility to aviation operators in planning and choosing preferred air routes that can lead to quicker arrivals. FRA offers enhanced system safety and efficiency, but these benefits can be outweighed by the introduction of air traffic conflicts that are geometrically more complex. Such conflicts can arise from increased number and distribution of conflict points, as well as from elevated uncertainty in aircraft maneuvering (for instance, during heading changes). Overall, these issues will make conflict detection more challenging for air traffic controllers (ATCOs). Consequently, there is a need to select ATCOs with suitably high levels of spatial orientation ability (SOA) to ensure flight safety under FRA implementation. In this study, we tested 20 participants who are eligible for ATCO job application, and found that response time-based performance on a newly developed, open access, computerized spatial orientation test (SOT) predicted time to loss of minimum separation (tLMS) performance on an air traffic conflict detection task (AT-CDT) we designed. We found this predictive relationship to be significant to a moderately large extent under scenarios with high air traffic density (raw regression coefficient = 0.58). Moreover, we demonstrated our AT-CDT as a valid test in terms of eliciting well-known mental workload and spatial learning effects. We explained these findings in light of similar or overlapping mental processes that were most likely activated optimally under task conditions featuring approximately equal numbers of outcome-relevant stimuli. We conclude by discussing the further application of the SOT to the selection of prospective ATCOs who can demonstrate high levels of conflict detection performance in FRA during training simulations.

A Tactical Conflict Resolution Proposal for U-Space Zu Airspace Volumes.

Conflict management between UAVs is one of the key aspects in developing future urban aerial mobility (UAM) spaces, such as the one proposed in U-Space. In the framework of tactical conflict management, i.e., with the UAVs in flight, this paper presents PCAN (Prediction-based Conflict-free Adaptive Navigation). This relatively simple navigation technique predicts the occurrence of the conflict and avoids it by modifying the velocity vector of the UAVs involved. The performance evaluation carried out demonstrates its effectiveness compared to similar techniques, even in high-density scenarios, while proving a low overhead in flight time or in the distance traveled by the UAVs to reach their destinations.

Recognizing biased reasoning: Conflict detection during decision-making and decision-evaluation.

Although it is well established that our thinking can often be biased, the precise cognitive mechanisms underlying these biases are still debated. The present study builds on recent research showing that biased reasoners often seem aware that their reasoning is incorrect; they show signs of conflict detection. One important shortcoming in this research is that the conflict detection effect has only been studied with classic problem-solving tasks, requiring people to make a decision themselves. However, in many reasoning situations people are confronted with decisions already made by others. Therefore, the present study (N = 159) investigated whether conflict detection occurs not only during reasoning on problem-solving tasks (i.e., decision-making), but also on vignette tasks, requiring participants to evaluate decisions made by others. We analyzed participants' conflict detection sensitivity on confidence and response time measures. Results showed that conflict detection occurred during both decision-making and decision-evaluation, as indicated by a decreased confidence. The response time index appeared to be a less reliable measure of conflict detection on the novel tasks. These findings are very relevant for studying reasoning in contexts in which recognizing reasoning errors is important; for instance, in education where teachers have to give feedback on students' reasoning.

Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace.

The expected growth of air traffic in the following decades demands the implementation of new operational concepts to avoid current limitations of the air traffic management system. This paper focuses on the strategic conflict management for four-dimensional trajectories (4DT) in free-route airspace. 4DT has been proposed as the future operational concept to manage air traffic. Thus, aircraft must fulfil temporary restrictions at specific waypoints in the airspace based on time windows. Based on the temporary restrictions, a strategic conflict management method is proposed to calculate the conflict probability of an aircraft pair (that intersects in the air) and to calculate temporary-blocking windows that quantify the time span at which an aircraft cannot depart because one conflict could occur. This methodology was applied in a case-study for an aircraft pair, including the uncertainty associated with 4DT. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed to characterise the impact of wind conditions and speed control on the temporary-blocking windows. The results concluded that it is feasible to propose 4DT strategic de-confliction based on temporary-blocking windows. Although, uncertainty variables such as wind and speed control impact on the conflict probability and the size of the temporary-blocking windows.

Economic threat heightens conflict detection: sLORETA evidence.

Economic threat has far-reaching emotional and social consequences, yet the impact of economic threat on neurocognitive processes has received little empirical scrutiny. Here, we examined the causal relationship between economic threat and conflict detection, a critical process in cognitive control associated with the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Participants (N = 103) were first randomly assigned to read about a gloomy economic forecast (Economic Threat condition) or a stable economic forecast (No-Threat Control condition). Notably, these forecasts were based on real, publicly available economic predictions. Participants then completed a passive auditory oddball task composed of frequent standard tones and infrequent, aversive white-noise bursts, a task that elicits the N2, an event-related potential component linked to conflict detection. Results revealed that participants in the Economic Threat condition evidenced increased activation source localized to the ACC during the N2 to white-noise stimuli. Further, ACC activation to conflict mediated an effect of Economic Threat on increased justification for personal wealth. Economic threat thus has implications for basic neurocognitive function. Discussion centers on how effects on conflict detection could shed light on the broader emotional and social consequences of economic threat.

Thinking in a foreign language distorts allocation of cognitive effort: Evidence from reasoning.

Bilinguals, in their foreign language, are spared from several decision-making biases. We examined this "Foreign Language Effect" in the context of logical reasoning, in which reasoners are required to track the logical status of a syllogism, ignoring its believability. Across three experiments, we found the reverse Foreign Language Effect; foreign language reasoners are less able to evaluate the logical structure of syllogisms, but no less biased by their believability. One path to succeeding in reasoning tasks is always engaging in reflective processing. A more efficient strategy is metacognitively tracking whether belief-based intuitions conflict with logic-based intuitions and only reflecting when such conflict is present. We provide evidence that foreign language reasoners are less accurate because they struggle to detect belief-logic conflict, and in turn fail to engage in reflective processing when necessary to override the incorrect, intuitive response. We propose that foreign language reasoners are less able to detect belief-logic conflict either due to weakened intuitions or due to a more conservative threshold for the detection of conflict between multiple competing intuitions. Data for the experiments can be accessed publicly at https://osf.io/phbuq/.

Fast fronto-parietal cortical dynamics of conflict detection and context updating in a flanker task.

Recent research has found that the traditional target P3 consists of a family of P3-like positivities that can be functionally and topographically dissociated from one another. The current study examined target N2 and P3-like subcomponents indexing conflict detection and context updating at low- and high-order levels in the neural hierarchy during cognitive control. Electroencephalographic signals were recorded from 45 young adults while they completed a hybrid go/nogo flanker task, and Residue Iteration Decomposition (RIDE) was applied to functionally dissociate these peaks. Analyses showed a stimulus-locked frontal N2 revealing early detection and fast perceptual categorization of nogo, congruent and incongruent trials, resulting in frontal P3-like activity elicited by nogo trials in the latency-variable RIDE cluster, and by incongruent trials in the response-locked cluster. The congruent trials did not elicit frontal P3-like activity. These findings suggest that behavioral incongruency effects are related to intermediate and later stages of motor response re-programming.

Attention Distribution While Detecting Conflicts between Converging Objects: An Eye-Tracking Study.

In many domains, including air traffic control, observers have to detect conflicts between moving objects. However, it is unclear what the effect of conflict angle is on observers' conflict detection performance. In addition, it has been speculated that observers use specific viewing techniques while performing a conflict detection task, but evidence for this is lacking. In this study, participants (N = 35) observed two converging objects while their eyes were recorded. They were tasked to continuously indicate whether a conflict between the two objects was present. Independent variables were conflict angle (30, 100, 150 deg), update rate (discrete, continuous), and conflict occurrence. Results showed that 30 deg conflict angles yielded the best performance, and 100 deg conflict angles the worst. For 30 deg conflict angles, participants applied smooth pursuit while attending to the objects. In comparison, for 100 and especially 150 deg conflict angles, participants showed a high fixation rate and glances towards the conflict point. Finally, the continuous update rate was found to yield shorter fixation durations and better performance than the discrete update rate. In conclusion, shallow conflict angles yield the best performance, an effect that can be explained using basic perceptual heuristics, such as the 'closer is first' strategy. Displays should provide continuous rather than discrete update rates.

Task relevance effect on number/shape conflict detection in the number-matching task: An ERP study.

It is debatable whether the task relevance effect on a conflict occurs in the detection or in the inhibition underlying sequential matching. To explore this issue, three types of number pairs, identical (e.g., 12, 12), conserved (e.g., 12, ), and non-conserved (e.g., 12, 15) pairs, were displayed to be judged as perceptually (identical shape condition) or quantitatively (identical value condition) the same. Both error rates and RTs for the three types of number pairs showed different patterns to detect perceptual mismatch in the identical shape condition and number inequivalence in the identical value conditions. The event-related potential (ERP) results showed that increased N200 and N400 as well as decreased P300 were triggered by the conserved and non-conserved pairs in contrast to identical pairs in the identical shape condition and by the non-conserved pairs relative to the conserved and identical pairs in the identical value condition. These results showed that task-relevant mismatches were attended to and detected in both conditions. Therefore, for the task-relevance effect on a conflict, attention is selectively directed to task-relevant features rather than inhibiting task-irrelevant conflict.

"You're wrong!": The impact of accuracy feedback on the bat-and-ball problem.

The popular bat-and-ball problem is a relatively simple math riddle on which people are easily biased by intuitive or heuristic thinking. In two studies we tested the impact of a simple but somewhat neglected manipulation - the impact of minimal accuracy feedback - on bat-and-ball performance. Participants solved a total of 15 standard and 15 control versions of the bat-and-ball problem in three consecutive blocks. Half of the participants received accuracy feedback in the intermediate block. Results of both studies indicated that the feedback had, on average, no significant effect on bat-and-ball accuracy over and above mere repeated presentation. We did observe a consistent improvement for a small number of individual participants. Explorative analyses indicated that this improved group showed a more pronounced conflict detection effect (i.e., latency increase) at the pretest and took more deliberation time after receiving the negative feedback compared to the unimproved group.