Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil.

Background: Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods: We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results: We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

Advancing the understanding of forest conservation dynamics through livelihood and landscape change scenarios: a case study in Chiapas, Mexico.

Forest conversion and conservation in rural settings are linked to both social and biophysical drivers. However, the joint analysis of these drivers presents methodological challenges. To address this problem, we propose a novel methodology to explore the relationship between livelihood heterogeneity and land use change at the community level. It combines the concept of archetype with the accounting scheme of MUlti-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism to define and quantify the characteristics of livelihood typologies in socioeconomic (time use, financial flows) and ecological terms (land use, agricultural inputs, soil degradation). Conservation trade-offs of potential policies are explored through "what if" scenarios assuming changes in off-farm opportunities, population growth, and conservation/farming subsidies. The approach is tested with a case study of the community of San Isidro, in Chiapas, Mexico. We conclude that the concept of livelihood typologies is useful to inform the debate over conservation prospects in rural environments. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-02965-z.

Functional planning units for the management of an endangered Brazilian titi monkey.

Conservation practices in the tropics often rely on the data available for a few, better-known species and the adoption of an appropriate spatial scale. By defining a set of landscape units that account for critical aspects of the focal species, the information available on these conservation targets can support regional conservation policies. Here, we define and classify adjacent landscapes, termed planning units, to orientate management decisions within and among these landscapes, which are occupied by an endangered flagship primate species (Coimbra-Filho's titi monkey, Callicebus coimbrai) from eastern Brazil. We use landscape boundaries (highways and river systems), and a high-resolution map of forest remnants to identify continuous and manageable landscapes. We employed functional landscape metrics based on the species' dispersal ability and home range size to characterize and classify these landscapes. We classified planning units by scoring them according to a suite of selected metrics through a Principal Component Analysis. We propose 31 planning units, containing one to six C. coimbrai populations, most with low values of habitat availability, functional connectivity and carrying capacity, and a high degree of degradation. Due to this poor landscape configuration, basic management practices are recommendable. However, additional aspects of the landscapes and the populations they contain (e.g., matrix type and genetic variability) should improve the scheme, which will require a closer integration of research aims with socio-political strategies. Even so, our scheme should prove useful for the combination of information on conservation targets (i.e., focal species) with management strategies on an administrative scale.

Bird conservation would complement landslide prevention in the Central Andes of Colombia.

Conservation and restoration priorities often focus on separate ecosystem problems. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia's Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, we set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, we identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. We further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. We developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, we mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. We identified 1.54 km(2) of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km(2) in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, we facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Downgrading, downsizing, degazettement, and reclassification of protected areas in Brazil.

Protected areas (PAs) are key elements for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Brazil has the largest PA system in the world, covering approximately 220 million ha. This system expanded rapidly in the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. Recent events in Brazil, however, have led to an increase in PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD). Does this reflect a shift in the country's PA policy? We analyzed the occurrence, frequency, magnitude, type, spatial distribution, and causes of changes in PA boundaries and categories in Brazil. We identified 93 PADDD events from 1981 to 2012. Such events increased in frequency since 2008 and were ascribed primarily to generation and transmission of electricity in Amazonia. In Brazilian parks and reserves, 7.3 million ha were affected by PADDD events, and of these, 5.2 million ha were affected by downsizing or degazetting. Moreover, projects being considered by the Federal Congress may degazette 2.1 million ha of PA in Amazonia alone. Relaxing the protection status of existing PAs is proving to be politically easy in Brazil, and the recent increase in frequency and extension of PADDD reflects a change in governmental policy. By taking advantage of chronic deficiencies in financial and personnel resources and surveillance, disputes over land tenure, and the slowness of the Brazilian justice, government agencies have been implementing PADDD without consultation of civil society. If parks and reserves are to maintain their integrity, there will need to be investments in Brazilian PAs and a better understanding of the benefits PAs provide.