Freshwater Mussel Viromes Increase Rapidly in Diversity and Abundance When Hosts Are Released from Captivity into the Wild.

Freshwater mussels (order: Unionida) are highly imperiled globally and are increasingly the focus of captive propagation efforts to protect and restore wild populations. The Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB) in Virginia is a freshwater biodiversity hotspot hosting at least 45 of North America's ~300 species of freshwater mussels, including 21 threatened and endangered species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Recent studies have documented that viruses and other microbes have contributed to freshwater mussel population declines in the UTRB. We conducted a multi-year longitudinal study of captive-reared hatchery mussels released to restoration sites throughout the UTRB to evaluate their viromes and compare them to captive hatchery environments. We documented 681 viruses from 27 families. The hatchery mussels had significantly less viruses than those deployed to wild sites, with only 20 viruses unique to the hatchery mussels. After the hatchery mussels were released into the wild, their number of viruses initially spiked and then increased steadily over time, with 451 viruses in total unique to the mussels in the wild. We found Clinch densovirus 1 (CDNV-1), a virus previously associated with mass mortality events in the Clinch River, in all samples, but the wild site mussels consistently had significantly higher CDNV-1 levels than those held in the hatchery. Our data document substantial differences between the viruses in the mussels in the hatchery and wild environments and rapid virome shifts after the mussels are released to the wild sites. These findings indicate that mussel release programs might benefit from acclimatization periods or other measures to mitigate the potential negative effects of rapid exposure to infectious agents found in natural environments.

Body condition of stranded Razorbills and Atlantic Puffins in the Western Mediterranean.

Annual mass migrations of seabirds between their breeding and wintering grounds are critical for ensuring their survival and reproductive success. It is essential to comprehend their physical condition in order to identify the causes of death and to facilitate conservation efforts. This study focuses on evaluating the age, body condition index, and metabolites in liver and muscle (triglycerides, glycerol, glycogen, cholesterol, lactate, and glucose) of stranded Razorbills (n = 84) and Atlantic puffins (n = 11). The study was conducted along the Andalusian coast of Spain during the winter season of 2022-2023. The study examined the body condition of stranded individuals and their metabolic state to determine potential factors that may have caused their deaths. The study found that the majority of stranded individuals were juveniles. Both species exhibited low levels of carbohydrate (glucose and glycogen) in their tissues and high levels of lactate in their muscles. These findings could suggest that the individuals had undergone prolonged, strenuous exercise, demanding energy on anaerobic pathways, which may have been associated with migration. The study highlights the significance of adhering to standardized protocols when assessing the body condition of stranded seabirds. Doing so can help to identify causes of death and facilitate conservation efforts. A proposed index for body condition, which incorporates biometric measurements and individual physical condition, provides a comprehensive means of understanding the health of these unique species. This study underscores the importance of further research into the conservation measures and recommendations for protecting seabird populations. It is critical to comprehend the contributing factors of mass mortality incidents to work towards safeguarding these species and preserving their vital migration patterns.

A meta-analysis of factors influencing the inactivation of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 in leafy greens.

Recent advancements in modeling suggest that microbial inactivation in leafy greens follows a nonlinear pattern, rather than the simple first-order kinetics. In this study, we evaluated 17 inactivation models commonly used to describe microbial decline and established the conditions that govern microbial survival on leafy greens. Through a systematic review of 65 articles, we extracted 530 datasets to model the fate of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 on leafy greens. Various factor analysis methods were employed to evaluate the impact of identified conditions on survival metrics. A two-parameter model (jm2) provided the best fit to most of both natural and antimicrobial-induced persistence datasets, whereas the one-parameter exponential model provided the best fit to less than 20% of the datasets. The jm2 model (adjusted R2 = .89) also outperformed the exponential model (adjusted R2 = .58) in fitting the pooled microbial survival data. In the context of survival metrics, the model averaging approach generated higher values than the exponential model for >4 log reduction times (LRTs), suggesting that the exponential model may be overpredicting inactivation at later time points. The random forest technique revealed that temperature and inoculum size were common factors determining inactivation in both natural and antimicrobial-induced die-offs.. The findings show the limitations of relying on the first-order survival metric of 1 LRT and considering nonlinear inactivation in produce safety decision-making.

Impact of Overhead Evaporative Cooling, Canopy Location, Sunlight Exposure, Inoculation Level, Region, and Growing Season on the Survival of Generic Escherichia coli on in-Field Fuji Apples.

AIMS: The survival of inoculated Escherichia coli on Fuji apples in Washington State orchards was studied, considering evaporative cooling, canopy location, year, and region, with the examination of sunlight exposure and inoculation levels in year 2. METHODS AND RESULTS: Rifampicin-resistant E. coli was applied to Fuji apples. Initial concentrations for the high-inoculation study were 7.4 ± 0.3 log10 CFU per apple and 3.4 ± 0.3 log10 CFU per apple for the low-inoculation study. Enumeration of E. coli was conducted at 0, 2, 10, 18, 34, 42, 58, 82, 106, and 154 h after inoculation. Results were analyzed using Tukey's honest significance difference test and a log-linear model. Log-linear, Weibull, and Biphasic models characterized E. coli die-off patterns for high and low inoculations. The application of evaporative overhead cooling water did not significantly influence E. coli survival on Fuji apples; inoculation level and sunlight exposure were significant factors in a log-linear model. E. coli decreased by 5.5 ± 1.3 and 3.3 ± 0.4 log10 CFU per apple for high and low inoculated apples, respectively, by 154 h. The Biphasic model best explained the die-off pattern for high and low-inoculated Fuji apples. CONCLUSIONS: Overhead evaporative cooling, a useful fruit quality practice, did not impact the survival of generic E. coli on Fuji apple surfaces. The significant impact of sunlight exposure and inoculation levels on die-off highlights the importance of ultraviolet radiation in risk reduction and the need for various inoculum concentrations in preharvest field studies.

Assessing the risk of E. coli contamination from manure application in Chinese farmland by integrating machine learning and Phydrus.

This study aims to present a comprehensive study on the risks associated with the residual presence and transport of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in soil following the application of livestock manure in Chinese farmlands by integrating machine learning algorithms with mechanism-based models (Phydrus). We initially review 28 published papers to gather data on E. coli's die-off and attachment characteristics in soil. Machine learning models, including deep learning and gradient boosting machine, are employed to predict key parameters such as the die-off rate of E. coli and first-order attachment coefficient in soil. Then, Phydrus was used to simulate E. coli transport and survival in 23692 subregions in China. The model considered regional differences in E. coli residual risk and transport, influenced by soil properties, soil depths, precipitation, seasonal variations, and regional disparities. The findings indicate higher residual risks in regions such as the Northeast China, Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and pronounced transport risks in the fringe of the Sichuan Basin fringe, the Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, the Northeast Plain, the Shigatse Basin, and the Shangri-La region. The study also demonstrates a significant reduction in both residual and transport risks one month after manure application, highlighting the importance of timing manure application and implementing region-specific standards. This research contributes to the broader understanding of pathogen behavior in agricultural soils and offers practical guidelines for managing the risks associated with manure use. This study's comprehensive method offers a potentially valuable tool for evaluating microbial contaminants in agricultural soils across the globe.

Widespread habitat loss leads to ecosystem-scale decrease in trophic function.

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances have led to rapid declines in the amount and quality of available habitat in many ecosystems. Many studies have focused on how habitat loss has affected the composition and configuration of habitats, but there have been fewer studies that investigate how this loss affects ecosystem function. We investigated how a large-scale seagrass die-off altered the distribution of energetic resources of three seagrass-associated consumers with varied resource use patterns. Using long-term benthic habitat monitoring data and resource use data from Bayesian stable isotope mixing models, we generated energetic resource landscapes (E-scapes) annually between 2007 and 2019. E-scapes link the resources being used by a consumer to the habitats that produce those resources to calculate a habitat resource index as a measurement of energetic quality of the landscape. Overall, our results revealed that following the die-off there was a reduction in trophic function across all species in areas affected by the die-off event, but the response was species-specific and dependent on resource use and recovery patterns. This study highlights how habitat loss can lead to changes in ecosystem function. Incorporating changes in ecosystem function into models of habitat loss could improve understanding of how species will respond to future change.

A nose for trouble: ecotoxicological implications for climate change and disease in Saiga antelope (S. t. tatarica).

In recent decades, Saiga antelope (Saiga t. tatarica) mass die-offs have become more common. The mass die-off of 2015 in central Kazakhstan, recorded 140,000 individual deaths across multiple herds. Previously, research has shown atmospheric humidity, the bacterium Pasteurella multocida serotype B, and resultant haemorrhagic septicaemia, were the primary cause. However, other synergistic factors may have impacted this process. Here we use a multivariate compositional data analysis (CoDA) approach to assess what other factors may have been involved. We show a pollutant linkage mechanism where relative humidity and dewpoint temperature combine with environmental pollutants, potentially toxic elements (e.g., Hg, As), complex carbon compounds (e.g., Acetone, Toluene), and inorganic compounds (e.g., CHx, SO2) which affected the Saiga during the calving season (start and peak) and at the onset of the mass die-off. We suggest a mechanism for this process. Upon arrival at their carving grounds, the Saiga experienced a sudden precipitation event, a spike in temperatures, and resultant high humidity occurs. The infectious bacterium P. multocida serotype B then spreads. Further, environmental pollutants contained within steppe soils are released to the air, forming localised smog events, these synergistically combine, and mass die-off occurs.

Drought legacy interacts with wildfire to alter soil microbial communities in a Mediterranean climate-type forest.

Mediterranean forest ecosystems will be increasingly affected by hotter drought and more frequent and severe wildfire events in the future. However, little is known about the longer-term responses of these forests to multiple disturbances and the forests' capacity to maintain ecosystem function. This is particularly so for below-ground organisms, which have received less attention than those above-ground, despite their essential contributions to forest function. We investigated rhizosphere microbial communities in a resprouting Eucalyptus marginata forest, southwestern Australia, that had experienced a severe wildfire four years previously, and a hotter drought eight years previously. Our aim was to understand how microbial communities are affected over longer-term trajectories by hotter drought and wildfire, singularly, and in combination. Fungal and bacterial DNA was extracted from soil samples, amplified, and subjected to high throughput sequencing. Richness, diversity, composition, and putative functional groups were then examined. We found a monotonic decrease in fungal, but not bacterial, richness and diversity with increasing disturbance with the greatest changes resulting from the combination of drought and wildfire. Overall fungal and bacterial community composition reflected a stronger effect of fire than drought, but the combination of both produced the greatest number of indicator taxa for fungi, and a significant negative effect on the abundance of several fungal functional groups. Key mycorrhizal fungi, fungal saprotrophs and fungal pathogens were found at lower proportions in sites affected by drought plus wildfire. Wildfire had a positive effect on bacterial hydrogen and bacterial nitrogen recyclers. Fungal community composition was positively correlated with live tree height. These results suggest that microbial communities, in particular key fungal functional groups, are highly responsive to wildfire following drought. Thus, a legacy of past climate conditions such as hotter drought can be important for mediating the responses of soil microbial communities to subsequent disturbance like wildfire.

Genetic Analysis of H5N1 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus following a Mass Mortality Event in Wild Geese on the Solway Firth.

The United Kingdom (UK) and Europe have seen successive outbreaks of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) since 2020 peaking in the autumn/winter periods. During the 2021/22 season, a mass die-off event of Svalbard Barnacle Geese (Branta leucopsis) was observed on the Solway Firth, a body of water on the west coast border between England and Scotland. This area is used annually by Barnacle Geese to over-winter, before returning to Svalbard to breed. Following initial identification of HPAIV in a Barnacle Goose on 8 November 2021, up to 32% of the total Barnacle Goose population may have succumbed to disease by the end of March 2022, along with other wild bird species in the area. Potential adaptation of the HPAIV to the Barnacle Goose population within this event was evaluated. Whole-genome sequencing of thirty-three HPAIV isolates from wild bird species demonstrated that there had been two distinct incursions of the virus, but the two viruses had remained genetically stable within the population, whilst viruses from infected wild birds were closely related to those from poultry cases occurring in the same region. Analysis of sera from the following year demonstrated that a high percentage (76%) of returning birds had developed antibodies to H5 AIV. This study demonstrates genetic stability of this strain of HPAIV in wild Anseriformes, and that, at the population scale, whilst there is a significant impact on survival, a high proportion of birds recover following infection.

Candida die-off: Adverse effect and neutralization with phytotherapy approaches.

Candida albicans is the main species that causes 3rd most common bloodstream infection candidiasis in hospitalization. Once it has been diagnosed and treated with antifungal medications accurately, large amounts of Candida cells are killed off rapidly known as Candida die-off or Jarisch-Herxheimer reactions. When Candida cells are killed off quickly, a large no. of toxic substances are released simultaneously. This flood of endotoxins is noxious (harmful) and causes the kidneys and liver to work overtime to try and remove them which causes worsening of symptoms in patients. As a complementary and holistic approach to addressing Candida die-off and its associated symptoms, plant-based remedies i.e., phytotherapy have been gaining increased attention. In this review paper, we have discussed major factors involved in provoking Candida die-off, their management by phytotherapy, challenges associated with the toxic effects due to die-off, and neutralization of Candida die-off through phytotherapy to manage this problem and challenges. In conclusion, this article serves as a meticulous compilation of knowledge on the intriguing subject of Candida die-off, presenting a distinct and informative perspective that has the potential to pave the way for new insights in the realm of plant-based antifungal therapeutics.

Mussel mass mortality in the Clinch River, USA: metabolomics detects affected pathways and biomarkers of stress.

Biologists monitoring freshwater mussel (order Unionida) populations rely on behavioral, often subjective, signs to identify moribund ("sick") or stressed mussels, such as gaping valves and slow response to probing, and they lack clinical indicators to support a diagnosis. As part of a multi-year study to investigate causes of reoccurring mortality of pheasantshell (Ortmanniana pectorosa; synonym Actinonaias pectorosa) in the Clinch River, Virginia and Tennessee, USA, we analyzed the hemolymph metabolome of a subset of mussels from the 2018 sampling period. Mussels at the mortality sites were diagnosed in the field as affected (case) or unaffected (control) based on behavioral and physical signs. Hemolymph was collected in the field by non-lethal methods from the anterior adductor muscle for analysis. We used ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography with quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectroscopy to detect targeted and untargeted metabolites in hemolymph and compared metabolomic profiles by field assessment of clinical status. Targeted biomarker analysis found 13 metabolites associated with field assessments of clinical status. Of these, increased gamma-linolenic acid and N-methyl-l-alanine were most indicative of case mussels, while adenine and inosine were the best indicators of control mussels. Five pathways in the targeted analysis differed by clinical status; two of these, purine metabolism and glycerophospholipid metabolism, were also indicated in the untargeted analysis. In the untargeted nalysis, 22 metabolic pathways were associated with clinical status. Many of the impacted pathways in the case group were catabolic processes, such as degradation of amino acids and fatty acids. Hierarchical clustering analysis matched clinical status in 72% (18 of 25) of mussels, with control mussels more frequently (5 of 16) not matching clinical status. Our study demonstrated that metabolomic analysis of hemolymph is suitable for assessing mussel condition and complements field-based indicators of health.

Viruses of Freshwater Mussels during Mass Mortality Events in Oregon and Washington, USA.

Freshwater mussels (Unionida) are globally imperiled, in part due to largely unexplained mass mortality events (MMEs). While recent studies have begun to investigate the possibility that mussel MMEs in the Eastern USA may be caused by infectious diseases, mussels in the Western USA have received relatively little attention in this regard. We conducted a two-year epidemiologic investigation of the role of viruses in ongoing MMEs of the Western pearlshell (Margaritifera falcata) and the Western ridged mussel (Gonidea angulata) in the Chehalis River and Columbia River watersheds in the Western USA. We characterized viromes of mussel hemolymph from 5 locations in 2018 and 2020 using metagenomic methods and identified 557 viruses based on assembled contiguous sequences, most of which are novel. We also characterized the distribution and diversity of a previously identified mussel Gammarhabdovirus related to pathogenic finfish viruses. Overall, we found few consistent associations between viruses and mussel health status. Variation in mussel viromes was most strongly driven by location, with little influence from date, species, or health status, though these variables together only explained ~1/3 of variation in virome composition. Our results demonstrate that Western freshwater mussels host remarkably diverse viromes, but no single virus or combination of viruses appears to be associated with morbidity or mortality during MMEs. Our findings have implications for the conservation of imperiled freshwater mussels, including efforts to enhance natural populations through captive propagation.

Effect of storage temperature and produce type on the survival or growth of Listeria monocytogenes on peeled rinds and fresh-cut produce.

Whole and fresh-cut produce are minimally processed and susceptible to microbial contamination. This study evaluated the survival or growth of L. monocytogenes on peeled rinds, and fresh-cut produce at different storage temperatures. Fresh-cut fruits and vegetables, including cantaloupe, watermelon, pear, papaya, pineapple, broccoli, cauliflower, lettuce, bell pepper, and kale (25 g pieces) were spot inoculated with 4 log CFU/g of L. monocytogenes and stored at 4 or 13°C for 6 days. Cantaloupe and bell pepper rind disks (20 cm2), mimicking whole produce were inoculated with low inoculum level (4 log CFU/mL) and high inoculum level (6 log CFU/mL) and stored at 24°C up to 8 days and 4°C up to 14 days, respectively. L. monocytogenes counts on fresh-cut pear samples stored at 4°C increased significantly by 0.27 log CFU/g. However, Listeria levels on kale (day 4), cauliflower (day 6), and broccoli (day 2) were significantly reduced by 0.73, 1.18, and 0.80 log CFU/g, respectively, at 4°C. At 13°C, the bacterial counts increased significantly after a day of storage on fresh-cut watermelons (increasing by 1.10 log CFU/g) and cantaloupes (increasing by 1.52 log CFU/g). Similar increases were observed on pears (1.00 log CFU/g), papayas (1.65 log CFU/g), and green bell peppers (1.72 log CFU/g). Pineapple samples did not support the growth of L. monocytogenes at 13°C with a significant reduction of 1.80 log CFU/g by day 6. L. monocytogenes levels significantly increased in fresh-cut lettuce at 13°C but remained stable on kale, cauliflower, and broccoli after 6 days of storage. Stable population was observed also on cantaloupe rinds up to 8 days at 24°C. While on the outer surface of bell peppers, the population level decreased below the detectable limit of the test (10 CFU/20 cm2) after 14 days of storage at 4°C. The results demonstrated variable survival behavior of L. monocytogenes on fresh-cut produce with produce type and storage temperature.

Climate and Soil Microsite Conditions Determine Local Adaptation in Declining Silver Fir Forests.

Ongoing climatic change is threatening the survival of drought-sensitive tree species, such as silver fir (Abies alba). Drought-induced dieback had been previously explored in this conifer, although the role played by tree-level genetic diversity and its relationship with growth patterns and soil microsite conditions remained elusive. We used double digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) to describe different genetic characteristics of five silver fir forests in the Spanish Pyrenees, including declining and non-declining trees. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used to investigate the relationships between genetics, dieback, intraspecific trait variation (functional dendrophenotypic traits and leaf traits), local bioclimatic conditions, and rhizosphere soil properties. While there were no noticeable genetic differences between declining and non-declining trees, genome-environment associations with selection signatures were abundant, suggesting a strong influence of climate, soil physicochemical properties, and soil microbial diversity on local adaptation. These results provide novel insights into how genetics and diverse environmental factors are interrelated and highlight the need to incorporate genetic data into silver fir forest dieback studies to gain a better understanding of local adaptation.

Persistence of E. coli in Streambed Sediment Contaminated with Faeces from Dairy Cows, Geese, and Deer: Legacy Risks to Environment and Health.

Legacy stores of faecal pollution in streambed sediments can result in delayed impacts on environmental quality and human health if resuspended into the overlying water column. Different catchment sources of faecal pollution can contribute to a legacy store of microbial pollutants, with size of stores influenced by microbial die-off and faecal accrual rates in the streambed. The aim of this study was to use a mesocosm experiment to characterise the persistence of E. coli derived from faeces of dairy cows, deer, and geese once introduced to streambed sediment under different temperature regimes. The settling rate of solid constituents of faecal material into streambed sediment once delivered into an aquatic environment was also quantified. The persistence patterns of E. coli in streambed sediment were found to vary as a function of faecal source and temperature; die-off of E. coli in sediment contaminated with goose faeces was more rapid than in sediments contaminated with dairy cow or deer faeces. Goose faeces also recorded a more rapid settling rate of faecal particles through the water column relative to dairy cow and deer faeces, suggesting a more efficient delivery of E. coli to streambed sediments associated with this faecal source. Our findings provide new evidence to improve understanding of the potential longer-term risks to both the environment and public health posed by sediments when contaminated with livestock, wildlife, and wildfowl faeces.

Survival, mobilization, and transport of Escherichia coli from sheep faeces.

AIMS: This study looked at the survival, mobilization, and transport of Escherichia coli from sheep faeces over an extended period, which was then repeated for all four seasons. METHODS AND RESULTS: Rain simulation was used to measure E. coli mobilization directly from faecal pats and subsequent transport across a soil surface. The rain simulation experiments were conducted over the same 90-day period and for the four seasons as per the survival experiments conducted to determine E. coli survival in faecal pats. The survival experiments demonstrated up to three orders of magnitude increase of E. coli in sheep faeces. Peak E. coli concentrations in the faeces were observed on Day 2 through to Day 30, with no significant effect of seasons or weather patterns. The E. coli concentrations in the runoff followed the survival pattern of E. coli concentrations in the faeces. CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant relationship between the E. coli concentrations in the faeces and the runoff. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF STUDY: The data generated on the relationship between Escherichia coli concentrations in the faeces and in the runoff can support the development of runoff risk models for sheep grazing pastureland to support catchment modelling, land use decisions, and public health.

Drought then wildfire reveals a compound disturbance in a resprouting forest.

The frequency and intensity of forest disturbances, such as drought and fire, are increasing globally, with an increased likelihood of multiple disturbance events occurring in short succession. Disturbances layered over one another may influence the likelihood or intensity of subsequent events (a linked disturbance) or impact response and recovery trajectories (a compound disturbance), with substantial implications for ecological spatiotemporal vulnerability. This study evaluates evidence for disturbance interactions of drought followed by wildfire in a resprouting eucalypt-dominated forest (the Northern Jarrah Forest) in southwestern Australia. Sites were stratified by drought (high, low), from previous modeling and ground validation, and fire severity (high, moderate, unburnt), via remote sensing using the relative difference normalized burn ratio (RdNBR). Evidence of a linked disturbance was assessed via fine fuel consumption and fire severity. Compound disturbance effects were quantified at stand scale (canopy height, quadratic mean diameter, stem density) and stem scale (mortality). There was no evidence of prior drought influencing fine fuel consumption or fire severity and, hence, no evidence of a linked disturbance. However, compound disturbance effects were evident; stands previously affected by drought experienced smaller shifts in canopy height, quadratic mean diameter, and stem density than stands without prior drought impact. At the stem scale, size and fire severity were the strongest determinants of stem survival. Proportional resprouting height was greater in high drought sites than in low drought sites (p < 0.01), meaning, structurally, the low drought stands decreased in height more than the high drought stands. Thus, a legacy of the drought was evident after the wildfire. Although these resprouting eucalypt forests have been regarded as particularly resilient, this study illustrates how multiple disturbances can overwhelm the larger tree component and promote an abundance of smaller stems. We suggest that this is early evidence of a structural destabilization of these forests under a more fire-prone, hotter, and drier future climate.

Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios.

In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.