Glacial lake outburst floods threaten China-Nepal connectivity: Synergistic study of remote sensing, GIS and hydrodynamic modeling with regional implications.

Holistic study of glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the strategically important China-Nepal transportation corridors is imperative for regional connectivity and disaster risk reduction. This study focuses on four China-Nepal transportation corridors, namely Chentang-Kimathanka, Zhangmu-Kodari, Keyrung-Kathmandu and Taklakot-Hilsa from east to west in the Himalayan region. Within a remote integrated framework, we present the latest high-resolution inventory of glacial lakes, assess their decadal spatio-temporal changes (1992-2022), identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes, and apply hydrodynamic model to assess downstream impacts of possible GLOFs along the study area. The results show 2688 glacial lakes (≥0.001 km2) with a total area of 116.10 ± 8.53 km2 over the study area in 2022. Glacial lakes exhibited spatiotemporal heterogeneity in expansion, with overall expansion of 32 % during 30 years. Keyrung-Kathmandu corridor, among others, was assessed with high GLOF susceptibility. Furthermore, hydrodynamic modeling of four highly dangerous lakes in each transportation area reveals that GLOFs have cross-border effects, impacting ∼103 km of China-Nepal highway, 103 bridges, two major dry ports and 3301 buildings in both countries. Based on these findings, we emphasize the joint efforts of both countries for integrated disaster management for smooth connectivity between two countries and saving downstream population through joint cooperation from central to local government levels by initiating artificial lake lowering, developing cross-border early warning systems and cooperation. This study is valuable for presenting a synergistic study of glacial lakes and GLOF for informing decision- and policy-makers of both China and Nepal for a joint approach to disaster mitigation.

A novel framework for predicting glacial lake outburst debris flows in the Himalayas amidst climate change.

The retreat of Himalayan glaciers and the expansion of glacial lakes due to global warming have increased the occurrence of glacial lake outburst debris flow (GLODF), posing a serious threat to downstream communities. However, there are gaps in understanding the changes in GLODF occurrence driven by climate change, which challenges disaster management and cross-border cooperation in the Himalayas. To consider this issue, our study presents a novel framework integrating environmental evolution, a process-driven indicator system, and a hybrid machine learning model to predict Himalayan GLODF occurrence in the 21st century. Our findings indicate ongoing temperature (0.27-0.60 °C/10a) and precipitation (1.30-5.00 %/10a) increases under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Meanwhile, Himalayan glaciers are projected to lose between 70 % and 86 % of their mass by 2100 compared to 2020. Additionally, 2722 ± 207 new glacial lakes are expected to emerge by 2100. GLODF occurrence probability index is anticipated to rise to 1.27-1.30 times the current levels, with the Western Himalayas and Indus basin as high-incidence areas. Currently and in the future, the China-Nepal border remains a hotspot for cross-border GLODF. Our framework offers valuable long-term insights into Himalayan GLODF occurrence trends in response to climate change.

Transboundary hazard and downstream impact of glacial lakes in Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalayas.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) can generate catastrophic flash floods when the damming structure is breached or overtopped. Some of these glacial lakes are located in transboundary regions where floods originating from the lake in one country could inundate a neighboring country, devastating the population and infrastructure of both nations and influencing socio-political relationships. Therefore, assessing the lakes' hazard is crucial. This study investigates transboundary glacial lakes, considering their GLOF hazard, including potential mass movement intrusion, moraine's stability, upstream and downstream process cascades, downstream flood extents, and the exposure and vulnerability of the downstream infrastructure and affected population. GLOF exposure assessments were carried out to identify exposed buildings, bridges, and hydropower systems in transboundary regions. China currently has the highest number of transboundary lakes, with most of them potentially impacting India and Nepal. Most of the transboundary lakes in China, and many in India and Nepal, are susceptible to mass movements. Among the 230 transboundary glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya, 55 lakes can potentially impact other glacial lakes along their flow path, creating a cascade of events. Five transboundary lakes could potentially impact over 1000 buildings, and 16 lakes could impact over 500 buildings. A total of 35 lakes can impact at least one hydropower station along their flow path, and 4 lakes can impact two hydropower stations. This research emphasizes the critical importance of conducting comprehensive risk analyses of GLOFs in transboundary regions to inform policy-makers. It calls for investing in broad-scale assessments and data-driven decision-making for mitigating and adapting to GLOF risks effectively. Finally, by raising awareness among policy-makers, the study aims to drive actions that safeguard communities and infrastructure vulnerable to GLOF.

Sensitive response of glaciers to changing climate in the Yankti Kuti valley, Kumaon Himalaya, India, between 1990 and 2021.

This study provides the first comprehensive account of the glaciation of the Yankti Kuti valley of the upper Kali Ganga catchment of the Kumaon Himalaya, Uttarakhand. Employing multi-year satellite images from 1990 to 2021, the study investigated the loss of glacial area, ice volume, snout recession, and the changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) in the Yankti Kuti Valley. The investigation showed an overall reduction of ~ 21 km2 (~ 21%) of the total glacier area of the basin. The basin witnesses an ice volume loss of ~ 23% and ~ 41 m upward shifting of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) between 1990 and 2021. The retreat rate of the four studied glaciers shows ranges from ~ 18 to 41 m/year. The glaciers in the valley are melting at a significant rate due to global warming, giving rise to the increasing number of pro-glacial lakes in the study area from 04 in 1990 to 10 in 2021 and making them vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the future. The study, therefore, calls for continued glacier monitoring in the upper Kali Ganga catchment in order to assess the future response of the Himalayan cryosphere and to make robust quantitative assessments about the sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies in the lower valleys.

Cultivable bacteria in the supraglacial lake formed after a glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan / Bacterias cultivables en el lago supraglacial formadas después de una inundación repentina en un lago glacial en el norte de Pakistán

Recently, a supraglacial lake formed as a result of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Dook Pal Glacier. Lake debris and meltwater samples were collected from the supraglacial lake to determine bacterial diversity. Geochemical analyses of samples showed free amino acids (FAAs), anions, cations, and heavy metals. Comparable viable bacterial counts were observed in meltwater and debris samples. Using R2A media, a total of 52 bacterial isolates were identified: 40 from debris and 12 from meltwater. The relative abundance of Gram-positive (80.8%) bacteria was greater than Gram-negative (19.2%). Molecular identification of these isolates revealed that meltwater was dominated by Firmicutes (41.6%) and Proteobacteria (41.6%), while lake debris was dominated by Firmicutes (65.0%). The isolates belonged to 14 genera with the greatest relative abundance in Bacillus. Tolerance level of isolates to salts was high. Most of the Gram-positive bacteria were eurypsychrophiles, while most of the Gram-negative bacteria were stenopsychrophiles. Gram-negative bacteria displayed a higher minimum inhibitory concentration of selected heavy metals and antibiotics than Gram-positive. This first-ever study of culturable bacteria from a freshly formed supraglacial lake improves our understanding of the bacterial diversity and antibiotic resistance released from the glaciers as a result of GLOF.(AU)

Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling: a case study of Satluj basin, Western Himalayas, India.

Glacier-associated hazards are becoming a common and serious challenge to the high mountainous regions of the world. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are one of the most serious unanticipated glacier hazards, with the potential to release a huge amount of water and debris in a short span of time, resulting in the loss of lives, property, and severe damage to downstream valleys. The present study used multi-temporal Landsat and Google earth imageries to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamism of the selected glacial lake (moraine-dammed) in the Satluj basin of Western Himalayas. Furthermore, GLOF susceptibility of the lake was assessed using a multi-criteria decision-based method. The results show that the lake area has increased from 0.11 to 0.26 km2 over the past 28 years from 1990 to 2018. The susceptibility index value for the lake was calculated as 0.75, which indicates that the lake is highly susceptible to the GLOF. The depth and volume of the lake were estimated to be 16 m and 57 × 105 m3, respectively, using an empirical formula. HEC-RAS, HECGeo-RAS, and Arc-GIS software were utilized in this study to perform unsteady flow analysis and to determine the GLOF impact on the downstream area. The worst-case GLOF scenario (breach width of 75 m) was revealed during an overtopping failure of the moraine dam, resulted in a peak discharge of 4060 m3/s and releasing a total water volume of 57 × 105 m3. The breach hydrograph has been routed to calculate the spatial and temporal distribution of peak flood, inundation depth, velocity, water surface elevation, and flood peak arrival time along the river channel. The analysis further reveals that the routed flood waves reach the nearest settlement, i.e., Rajpur town, situated at a distance of 102 km in the downstream valley of the lake at 6 h after the beginning of the lake breach event with a peak discharge/flood of 1757 m3/s and maximum flow velocity of 1.5 m/s. With the ongoing climate warming and glacier retreat, moraine-dammed lakes are becoming more hazardous and thus increasing the total threat. Therefore, it is mandatory to monitor and assess such lakes at regular intervals of time to lessen the disastrous impacts of GLOFs on the livelihood and infrastructure in the downstream valleys. The findings of this study will aid in the creation of risk management plans, preparatory tactics, and risk reduction techniques for GLOF hazards in the region.

Cultivable bacteria in the supraglacial lake formed after a glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan.

Recently, a supraglacial lake formed as a result of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Dook Pal Glacier. Lake debris and meltwater samples were collected from the supraglacial lake to determine bacterial diversity. Geochemical analyses of samples showed free amino acids (FAAs), anions, cations, and heavy metals. Comparable viable bacterial counts were observed in meltwater and debris samples. Using R2A media, a total of 52 bacterial isolates were identified: 40 from debris and 12 from meltwater. The relative abundance of Gram-positive (80.8%) bacteria was greater than Gram-negative (19.2%). Molecular identification of these isolates revealed that meltwater was dominated by Firmicutes (41.6%) and Proteobacteria (41.6%), while lake debris was dominated by Firmicutes (65.0%). The isolates belonged to 14 genera with the greatest relative abundance in Bacillus. Tolerance level of isolates to salts was high. Most of the Gram-positive bacteria were eurypsychrophiles, while most of the Gram-negative bacteria were stenopsychrophiles. Gram-negative bacteria displayed a higher minimum inhibitory concentration of selected heavy metals and antibiotics than Gram-positive. This first-ever study of culturable bacteria from a freshly formed supraglacial lake improves our understanding of the bacterial diversity and antibiotic resistance released from the glaciers as a result of GLOF.

An integrative method for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Himalayas.

Glacial lakes in the Himalayas are widely distributed. Since 1900, more than 100 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have originated in the region, causing approximately 7000 deaths and considerable economic losses. Identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) is considered the first step in assessing GLOF risks. In this study, a more thorough inventory of PDGLs was presented that included numerous small-sized glacial lakes (<0.1 km2) that were generally neglected in the Himalayas for decades. Moreover, the PDGL evaluation system was improved in response to several deficiencies, such as the selection of assessment factors, which are sometimes arbitrary without a solid scientific basis. We designed an optimality experiment to select the best combination of assessment factors from 57 factors to identify PDGLs. Based on the experiments on both drained and non-drained glacial lakes in the Sunkoshi Basin, eastern Himalayas, five assessment factors were determined to be the best combination: the mean slope of the parent glacier, the potential for mass movement into the lake, the mean slope of moraine dams, the watershed area, and the lake perimeter, corresponding to the GLOF triggers for ice avalanches, rockfalls and landslides, dam instability, heavy precipitation or other liquid inflows, and lake characteristics, respectively. We then applied the best combination of assessment factors to the 1650 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.02 km2 in the Himalayas. We identified 207 glacial lakes as very high-hazard and 345 as high-hazard. It is noteworthy that in various GLOF susceptibility evaluation scenarios with different assessment factors, weighting schemes, and classification approaches, similar results for glacial lakes with high outburst potential have been obtained. The results provided here can be used as benchmark data to assess the GLOF risks for local communities.

Assessing the potential impact of glacial lake outburst floods on individual objects using a high-performance hydrodynamic model and open-source data.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are one of the major natural hazards in certain populated mountainous areas, e.g., the Himalayan region, which may lead to catastrophic consequences including substantial loss of lives. Evaluating the potential socio-economic impact of GLOFs is essential for risk mitigation and enhancing community resilience. Yet in most of the cases, this is confronted with the challenges of limited availability of data and inaccessibility to most of the glacial lakes in the high-altitude areas. This study aims to exploit open data from different sources and high-performance hydrodynamic modelling to develop a new framework for GLOF exposure and impact assessment. In the new framework, different GLOF scenarios are created using a simple dam breach model. A high-performance hydrodynamic model is then adopted to simulate the resulting flood hydrodynamics. Necessary socio-economic information is collected and processed from multiple sources including OpenStreetMap, Google Earth, and global data products to support exposure analysis. Established depth-damage curves are used to assess the GLOF damage extents to different exposed objects and an existing fatality estimating procedure is adopted to assess the potential loss of lives. The evaluation framework is applied to the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake in Nepal. From the results, the worst GLOF scenario as considered can potentially inundate 1647 buildings, impact 5038 people and hit 123 key facilities including schools, hospitals, airports, hydropower plants, etc. It may substantially damage 900 buildings, 10.63 km2 of agricultural land and 50.9 km roads and may potentially lead to 45 deaths even if warning is available.

Expansion and hazard risk assessment of glacial lake Jialong Co in the central Himalayas by using an unmanned surface vessel and remote sensing.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe hazard in the Himalayas. Glacial lake expansion and the corresponding volume increase play major roles in GLOFs as well as climate change. Furthermore, mass movement and dam conditions play a major role in the GLOF initiation process. Recently, because of global warming, glacial lakes in the central Himalayas have been expanding rapidly. Owing to a lack of systematic assessment and meticulous field surveys, people living downstream are at great risk of GLOFs. Comprehensive investigations and assessment of the relationships among lake expansion, lake dam conditions, and GLOF risk are urgently needed. In this study, we surveyed Jialong Co, a typical end-moraine dammed lake in Poiqu River in the central Himalayas by using Landsat and Sentinel satellite images from the past 32 years, field work, and depth measurements using an unmanned surface vessel on August 28, 2020. The results showed that Jialong Co had experienced slow-quick-slow expansion, increasing in area from 0.13 ± 0.03 to 0.60 ± 0.02 km2. The lake bathymetric map revealed that the lake volume was (3.75 ± 0.38) × 107 m3 in 2020. Lake expansion occurred in the area from which the mother glacier retreated, indicating a close connection between the lake and its mother glacier and revealing that topography controlled the lake expansion process. Furthermore, thorough field work revealed that outlet dynamics and external water erosion are vulnerable elements in the disaster chain that initiate and affect the GLOF hazard of Jialong Co. Overall, this case study could help scholars understand the expansion mechanism of end-moraine dammed lakes and aid in hazard assessment of glacial lakes in the central Himalayas.

Response of glacial lakes to glacier and climate changes in the western Nyainqentanglha range.

The western Nyainqentanglha (WNT) range, located in the transition zone between large-scale atmospheric circulations, has an abundance of glacial lakes and glaciers. In the warmer climate of recent decades, the glacial lakes and glaciers in the WNT range could have changed substantially. Here, glacial lake and glacier changes for the entire WNT range between 1976 and 2018 are examined. The results show that, between 1976 and 2018, the number of glacial lakes (>0.0036 km2) increased by 56% from 192 to 299 and their total area increased by 35% from 6.75 ± 0.13 km2 to 9.12 ± 0.13 km2. The glacial lakes expanded faster in 2001-2018 (0.08 km2/yr) than in 1976-2001 (0.04 km2/yr), and faster on the southern side of the mountain range than on the northern side. Correspondingly, the rates of glacier area shrinkage and surface elevation thinning between 2000 and 2018 were -4.15 km2/yr and -0.29 ± 0.06 m/yr, respectively, greater than the respective rates of -3.91 km2/yr and -0.24 ± 0.11 m/yr in 1976-2000. The glacier retreat and elevation thinning to the south of the main divide are greater than to the north, with the exception of the thinning rate in 2000-2014 which is possibly due to precipitation differences. With the rapid retreat of glaciers, many glacial lakes are changing from proglacial lakes to unconnected glacial lakes. The increases in the number and area of glacial lakes are moving toward higher elevations, accompanying the retreat of glaciers and the increase in the mean elevation of glaciers. The observed increased precipitation also supports the increases of glacial lakes. The accelerating glacier loss and lake expansion in the WNT range imply a strong impact of climate change on the cryosphere over the past few decades.

Maker Buoy Variants for Water Level Monitoring and Tracking Drifting Objects in Remote Areas of Greenland.

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet changes water levels in glacial lakes and can lead to glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF) events that threaten lives and property. Icebergs produced at Greenland's marine terminating glaciers drift into Baffin Bay and the North Atlantic, where they can threaten shipping and offshore installations. Thus, monitoring glacial lake water levels and the drift of icebergs can enhance safety and aid in the scientific studies of glacial hydrology and iceberg-ocean interactions. The Maker Buoy was originally designed as a low-cost and open source sensor to monitor surface ocean currents. The open source framework, low-cost components, rugged construction and affordable satellite data transmission capabilities make it easy to customize for environmental monitoring in remote areas and under harsh conditions. Here, we present two such Maker Buoy variants that were developed to monitor water level in an ice-infested glacial lake in southern Greenland and to track drifting icebergs and moorings in the Vaigat Strait (Northwest Greenland). We describe the construction of each design variant, methods to access data in the field without an internet connection, and deployments in Greenland in summer 2019. The successful deployments of each Maker Buoy variant suggest that they may also be useful in operational iceberg management strategies and in GLOF monitoring programs.

High-Frequency Glacial Lake Mapping Using Time Series of Sentinel-1A/1B SAR Imagery: An Assessment for the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Glacial lakes are an important component of the cryosphere in the Tibetan Plateau. In response to climate warming, they threaten the downstream lives, ecological environment, and public infrastructures through outburst floods within a short time. Although most of the efforts have been made toward extracting glacial lake outlines and detect their changes with remotely sensed images, the temporal frequency and spatial resolution of glacial lake datasets are generally not fine enough to reflect the detailed processes of glacial lake dynamics, especially for potentially dangerous glacial lakes with high-frequency variability. By using full time-series Sentinel-1A/1B imagery over a year, this study presents a new systematic method to extract the glacial lake outlines that have a fast variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau with a time interval of six days. Our approach was based on a level-set segmentation, combined with a median pixel composition of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscattering coefficients stacked as a regularization term, to robustly estimate the lake extent across the observed time range. The mapping results were validated against manually digitized lake outlines derived from Gaofen-2 panchromatic multi-spectral (GF-2 PMS) imagery, with an overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of 96.54% and 0.95, respectively. In comparison with results from classical supervised support vector machine (SVM) and unsupervised Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique Algorithm (ISODATA) methods, the proposed method proved to be much more robust and effective at detecting glacial lakes with irregular boundaries that have similar backscattering as the surroundings. This study also demonstrated the feasibility of time-series Sentinel-1A/1B SAR data in the continuous monitoring of glacial lake outline dynamics.

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards over High Mountain Asia.

Cascading hazard processes refer to a primary trigger such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or snow melt, followed by a chain or web of consequences that can cause subsequent hazards influenced by a complex array of preconditions and vulnerabilities. These interact in multiple ways and can have tremendous impacts on populations proximate to or downstream of these initial triggers. High Mountain Asia (HMA) is extremely vulnerable to cascading hazard processes given the tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic setting of the region, particularly as it relates to glacial lakes. Given the limitations of in situ surveys in steep and often inaccessible terrain, remote sensing data are a valuable resource for better understanding and quantifying these processes. The present work provides a survey of cascading hazard processes impacting HMA and how these can be characterized using remote sensing sources. We discuss how remote sensing products can be used to address these process chains, citing several examples of cascading hazard scenarios across HMA. This work also provides a perspective on the current gaps and challenges, community needs, and view forward towards improved characterization of evolving hazards and risk across HMA.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation.

Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan.

Climate change has been shown to increase the number of mountain lakes across various mountain ranges in the World. In Central Asia, and in particular on the territory of Uzbekistan, a detailed assessment of glacier lakes and their evolution over time is, however lacking. For this reason we created the first detailed inventory of mountain lakes of Uzbekistan based on recent (2002-2014) satellite observations using WorldView-2, SPOT5, and IKONOS imagery with a spatial resolution from 2 to 10m. This record was complemented with data from field studies of the last 50years. The previous data were mostly in the form of inventories of lakes, available in Soviet archives, and primarily included localized in-situ data. The inventory of mountain lakes presented here, by contrast, includes an overview of all lakes of the territory of Uzbekistan. Lakes were considered if they were located at altitudes above 1500m and if lakes had an area exceeding 100m2. As in other mountain regions of the World, the ongoing increase of air temperatures has led to an increase in lake number and area. Moreover, the frequency and overall number of lake outburst events have been on the rise as well. Therefore, we also present the first outburst assessment with an updated version of well-known approaches considering local climate features and event histories. As a result, out of the 242 lakes identified on the territory of Uzbekistan, 15% are considered prone to outburst, 10% of these lakes have been assigned low outburst potential and the remainder of the lakes have an average level of outburst potential. We conclude that the distribution of lakes by elevation shows a significant influence on lake area and hazard potential. No significant differences, by contrast, exist between the distribution of lake area, outburst potential, and lake location with respect to glaciers by regions.

A review of atmospheric and land surface processes with emphasis on flood generation in the Southern Himalayan rivers.

Floods in the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas are a major cause of loss of life, property, crops, infrastructure, etc. They have long term socio-economic impacts on the habitat living along/across the Himalayas. In the recent decade extreme precipitation events have led to numerous flash floods in and around the Himalayan region. Sporadic case-based studies have tried to explain the mechanisms causing the floods. However, in some of the cases, the causative mechanisms have been elusive. Various types of flood events have been debated at different spatial and temporal scales. The present study provides an overview of mechanisms that lead to floods in and around the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas. Atmospheric processes, landuse interaction, and glacier-related outbreaks are considered in the overview.

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes.

Water resources in many of the world's arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0 °C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America's fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions.

Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas--from an area-wide glacial lake inventory to on-site and modeling based risk assessment of critical glacial lakes.

Glacial lake hazards and glacial lake distributions are investigated in many glaciated regions of the world, but comparably little attention has been given to these topics in the Indian Himalayas. In this study we present a first area-wide glacial lake inventory, including a qualitative classification at 251 glacial lakes >0.01 km(2). Lakes were detected in the five states spanning the Indian Himalayas, and lake distribution pattern and lake characteristics were found to differ significantly between regions. Three glacial lakes, from different geographic and climatic regions within the Indian Himalayas were then selected for a detailed risk assessment. Lake outburst probability, potential outburst magnitudes and associated damage were evaluated on the basis of high-resolution satellite imagery, field assessments and through the use of a dynamic model. The glacial lakes analyzed in the states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh were found to present moderate risks to downstream villages, whereas the lake in Sikkim severely threatens downstream locations. At the study site in Sikkim, a dam breach could trigger drainage of ca. 16×10(6)m(3) water and generate maximum lake discharge of nearly 7000 m(3) s(-). The identification of critical glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas and the detailed risk assessments at three specific sites allow prioritizing further investigations and help in the definition of risk reduction actions.