Pre-contact and post-colonial ecological legacies shape Surinamese rainforests.

Disturbances in tropical forests can have long-lasting ecological impacts, but their manifestations (ecological legacies) in modern forests are uncertain. Many Amazonian forests bear the mark of past soil modifications, species enrichments, and fire events, but the trajectories of ecological legacies from the pre-contact or post-colonial period remain relatively unexplored. We assessed the fire and vegetation history from 15 soil cores ranging from 0 to 10 km from a post-colonial Surinamese archaeological site. We show that (1) fires occurred from 96 bc to recent times and induced significant vegetation change, (2) persistent ecological legacies from pre-contact and post-colonial fire and deforestation practices were mainly within 1 km of the archaeological site, and (3) palm enrichment of Attalea, Oenocarpus and Astrocaryum occurred within 0, 1, and 8 km of the archaeological site, respectively. Our results challenge the notion of spatially extensive and persistent ecological legacies. Instead, our data indicate that the persistence and extent of ecological legacies are dependent on their timing, frequency, type, and intensity. Examining the mechanisms and manifestations of ecological legacies is crucial in assessing forest resilience and Indigenous and local land rights in the highly threatened Amazonian forests.

Circulation of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) isolates expressing CS23 from the environment to clinical settings.

IMPORTANCE: The importance of clean water cannot be overstated. It is a vital resource for maintaining health and well-being. Unfortunately, water sources contaminated with fecal discharges from animal and human origin due to a lack of wastewater management pose a significant risk to communities, as they can become a means of transmission of pathogenic bacteria like enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC). ETEC is frequently found in polluted water in countries with a high prevalence of diarrheal diseases, such as Bolivia. This study provides novel insights into the circulation of ETEC between diarrheal cases and polluted water sources in areas with high rates of diarrheal disease. These findings highlight the Choqueyapu River as a potential reservoir for emerging pathogens carrying antibiotic-resistance genes, making it a crucial area for monitoring and intervention. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the feasibility of a low-cost, high-throughput method for tracking bacterial pathogens in low- and middle-income countries, making it a valuable tool for One Health monitoring efforts.

Predicting the geographic distribution of ancient Amazonian archaeological sites with machine learning.

Amazonia has as least two major centers of ancient human social complexity, but the full geographic extents of these centers remain uncertain. Across the southern rim of Amazonia, over 1,000 earthwork sites comprised of fortified settlements, mound villages, and ditched enclosures with geometric designs known as geoglyphs have been discovered. Qualitatively distinct and densely located along the lower stretches of major river systems and the Atlantic coast are Amazonian Dark Earth sites (ADEs) with deep anthropogenic soils enriched by long-term human habitation. Models predicting the geographic extents of earthworks and ADEs can assist in their discovery and preservation and help answer questions about the full degree of indigenous landscape modifications across Amazonia. We classify earthworks versus ADEs versus other non-earthwork/non-ADE archaeological sites with multi-class machine learning algorithms using soils, climate, and distances to rivers of different types and sizes as geospatial predictors. Model testing is done with spatial cross-validation, and the best model at the optimal spatial scale of 1 km has an Area Under the Curve of 0.91. Our predictive model has led to the discovery of 13 new geoglyphs, and it pinpoints specific areas with high probabilities of undiscovered archaeological sites that are currently hidden by rainforests. The limited, albeit impressive, predicted extents of earthworks and ADEs means that other non-ADE/non-earthwork sites are expected to predominate most of Western and Northern Amazonia.

Disentangling the last 1,000 years of human-environment interactions along the eastern side of the southern Andes (34-52°S lat.).

Researchers have long debated the degree to which Native American land use altered landscapes in the Americas prior to European colonization. Human-environment interactions in southern South America are inferred from new pollen and charcoal data from Laguna El Sosneado and their comparison with high-resolution paleoenvironmental records and archaeological/ethnohistorical information at other sites along the eastern Andes of southern Argentina and Chile (34-52°S). The records indicate that humans, by altering ignition frequency and the availability of fuels, variously muted or amplified the effects of climate on fire regimes. For example, fire activity at the northern and southern sites was low at times when the climate and vegetation were suitable for burning but lacked an ignition source. Conversely, abundant fires set by humans and infrequent lightning ignitions occurred during periods when warm, dry climate conditions coincided with ample vegetation (i.e., fuel) at midlatitude sites. Prior to European arrival, changes in Native American demography and land use influenced vegetation and fire regimes locally, but human influences were not widely evident until the 16th century, with the introduction of nonnative species (e.g., horses), and then in the late 19th century, as Euro-Americans targeted specific resources to support local and national economies. The complex interactions between past climate variability, human activities, and ecosystem dynamics at the local scale are overlooked by approaches that infer levels of land use simply from population size or that rely on regionally composited data to detect drivers of past environmental change.

Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture.

Endangered forest-grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including the southern Brazilian highlands. This natural mosaic ecosystem is thought to reflect alternative stable states driven by threshold responses of recruitment to fire and moisture regimes. The role of adaptive human behavior in such systems remains understudied, despite its pervasiveness and the fact that such ecosystems can exhibit complex dynamics. We develop a nonlinear mathematical model of coupled human-environment dynamics in mosaic systems and social processes regarding conservation and economic land valuation. Our objective is to better understand how the coupled dynamics respond to changes in ecological and social conditions. The model is parameterized with southern Brazilian data on mosaic ecology, land-use profits, and questionnaire results concerning landowner preferences and conservation values. We find that the mosaic presently resides at a crucial juncture where relatively small changes in social conditions can generate a wide variety of possible outcomes, including complete loss of mosaics; large-amplitude, long-term oscillations between land states that preclude ecosystem stability; and conservation of the mosaic even to the exclusion of agriculture/silviculture. In general, increasing the time horizon used for conservation decision making is more likely to maintain mosaic stability. In contrast, increasing the inherent conservation value of either forests or grasslands is more likely to induce large oscillations-especially for forests-due to feedback from rarity-based conservation decisions. Given the potential for complex dynamics, empirically grounded nonlinear dynamical models should play a larger role in policy formulation for human-environment mosaic ecosystems.

Interactions of social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

Galapagos is often cited as an example of the conflicts that are emerging between resource conservation and economic development in island ecosystems, as the pressures associated with tourism threaten nature, including the iconic and emblematic species, unique terrestrial landscapes, and special marine environments. In this paper, two projects are described that rely upon dynamic systems models and agent-based models to examine human-environment interactions. We use a theoretical context rooted in complexity theory to guide the development of our models that are linked to social-ecological dynamics. The goal of this paper is to describe key elements, relationships, and processes to inform and enhance our understanding of human-environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. By formalizing our knowledge of how systems operate and the manner in which key elements are linked in coupled human-natural systems, we specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange between social and ecological features derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The processes described in our models also have practical applications in that they emphasize how political policies generate different human responses and model outcomes, many detrimental to the social-ecological sustainability of the Galapagos Islands.

Environmental impact of geometric earthwork construction in pre-Columbian Amazonia.

There is considerable controversy over whether pre-Columbian (pre-A.D. 1492) Amazonia was largely "pristine" and sparsely populated by slash-and-burn agriculturists, or instead a densely populated, domesticated landscape, heavily altered by extensive deforestation and anthropogenic burning. The discovery of hundreds of large geometric earthworks beneath intact rainforest across southern Amazonia challenges its status as a pristine landscape, and has been assumed to indicate extensive pre-Columbian deforestation by large populations. We tested these assumptions using coupled local- and regional-scale paleoecological records to reconstruct land use on an earthwork site in northeast Bolivia within the context of regional, climate-driven biome changes. This approach revealed evidence for an alternative scenario of Amazonian land use, which did not necessitate labor-intensive rainforest clearance for earthwork construction. Instead, we show that the inhabitants exploited a naturally open savanna landscape that they maintained around their settlement despite the climatically driven rainforest expansion that began ∼2,000 y ago across the region. Earthwork construction and agriculture on terra firme landscapes currently occupied by the seasonal rainforests of southern Amazonia may therefore not have necessitated large-scale deforestation using stone tools. This finding implies far less labor--and potentially lower population density--than previously supposed. Our findings demonstrate that current debates over the magnitude and nature of pre-Columbian Amazonian land use, and its impact on global biogeochemical cycling, are potentially flawed because they do not consider this land use in the context of climate-driven forest-savanna biome shifts through the mid-to-late Holocene.

Space versus Place in Complex Human-Natural Systems: Spatial and Multi-level Models of Tropical Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) in Guatemala.

The relative role of space and place has long been debated in geography. Yet modeling efforts applied to coupled human-natural systems seemingly favor models assuming continuous spatial relationships. We examine the relative importance of placebased hierarchical versus spatial clustering influences in tropical land use/cover change (LUCC). Guatemala was chosen as our study site given its high rural population growth and deforestation in recent decades. We test predictors of 2009 forest cover and forest cover change from 2001-2009 across Guatemala's 331 municipalities and 22 departments using spatial and multi-level statistical models. Our results indicate the emergence of several socio-economic predictors of LUCC regardless of model choice. Hierarchical model results suggest that significant differences exist at the municipal and departmental levels but largely maintain the magnitude and direction of single-level model coefficient estimates. They are also intervention-relevant since policies tend to be applicable to distinct political units rather than to continuous space. Spatial models complement hierarchical approaches by indicating where and to what magnitude significant negative and positive clustering associations emerge. Appreciating the comparative advantages and limitations of spatial and nested models enhances a holistic approach to geographical analysis of tropical LUCC and human-environment interactions.