Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

Finding the needle in a haystack: Evaluation of ecotoxicological effects along the continental shelf break during the Brazilian mysterious oil spill.

Oceanic oil spills present significant ecological risks that have the potential to contaminate extensive areas, including coastal regions. The occurrence of the 2019 oil spill event in Brazil resulted in over 3000 km of contaminated beaches and shorelines. While assessing the impact on benthic and beach ecosystems is relatively straightforward due to direct accessibility, evaluating the ecotoxicological effects of open ocean oil spills on the pelagic community is a complex task. Difficulties are associated with the logistical challenges of responding promptly and, in case of the Brazilian mysterious oil spill, to the subsurface propagation of the oil that impeded remote visual detection. An oceanographic expedition was conducted in order to detect and evaluate the impact of this oil spill event along the north-eastern Brazilian continental shelf. The pursuit of dissolved and dispersed oil compounds was accomplished by standard oceanographic methods including seawater polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) analysis, biomass stable carbon isotope (δ13C), particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen (POC:PON) ratios, nutrient analysis and ecotoxicological bioassays using the naupliar phase of the copepod Tisbe biminiensis. Significant ecotoxicological effects, reducing naupliar development by 20-40 %, were indicated to be caused by the presence of dispersed oil in the open ocean. The heterogeneous distribution of oil droplets aggravated the direct detection and biochemical indicators for oil are presented and discussed. Our findings serve as a case study for identifying and tracing subsurface propagation of oil, demonstrating the feasibility of utilizing standard oceanographic and ecotoxicological methods to assess the impacts of oil spill events in the open ocean. Ultimately, it encourages the establishment of appropriate measures and responses regarding the liability and regulation of entities to be held accountable for oil spills in the marine environment.

Resource partitioning of a Mexican clam in species-poor Baltic Sea sediments indicates the existence of a vacant trophic niche.

Invasive species are often generalists that can take advantage of formerly unexploited resources. The existence of such vacant niches is more likely in species-poor systems like the Baltic Sea. The suspension feeding wedge clam, Rangia cuneata, native to estuarine environments in the Gulf of Mexico, was sighted for the first time in the southeastern Baltic in 2010 and a few years later in the northern Baltic along the Swedish coast. To explore possible competition for food resources between R. cuneata and the three native clams inhabiting Baltic shallow soft bottoms, stable isotope and fatty acid analyses were conducted. There was no overlap between R. cuneata and any of the native species in either stable isotope or fatty acid niches. This suggests efficient partitioning of resources; multivariate analyses indicate that separation was driven mainly by δ13C and by fatty acids reflecting diatoms and cyanobacteria, respectively (e.g. 16:1ω7 and 18:3ω3). R. cuneata reflected seasonal variation in phytoplankton more than other clams reflecting higher trophic plasticity. In conclusion, the addition of R. cuneata to the Baltic shallow soft bottoms suggests the existence of a vacant trophic niche in these sediment habitats, however the long-term effects on other species and nutrient cycling requires further studies focusing on the population dynamics of R. cuneata and its impact on the Baltic Sea ecosystem.

Mesoscale activity drives the habitat suitability of yellowfin tuna in the Gulf of Mexico.

Yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, represents an important component of commercial and recreational fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). We investigated the influence of environmental conditions on the spatiotemporal distribution of yellowfin tuna using fisheries' catch data spanning 2012-2019 within Mexican waters. We implemented hierarchical Bayesian regression models with spatial and temporal random effects and fixed effects of several environmental covariates to predict habitat suitability (HS) for the species. The best model included spatial and interannual anomalies of the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean surface (ADTSA and ADTIA, respectively), bottom depth, and a seasonal cyclical random effect. High catches occurred mainly towards anticyclonic features at bottom depths > 1000 m. The spatial extent of HS was higher in years with positive ADTIA, which implies more anticyclonic activity. The highest values of HS (> 0.7) generally occurred at positive ADTSA in oceanic waters of the central and northern GoM. However, high HS values (> 0.6) were observed in the southern GoM, in waters with cyclonic activity during summer. Our results highlight the importance of mesoscale features for the spatiotemporal distribution of yellowfin tunas and could help to develop dynamic fisheries management strategies in Mexico and the U.S. for this valuable resource.

Potential application of carduma (Cetengraulis mysticetus) and plumuda (Opisthonema spp.) fish paste for the development of a leberkäse (liver loaf) fish product: Physicochemical and functional properties.

This study investigated the potential use of fish paste from two pelagic species (Cetengraulis mysticetus or carduma in Colombia and Opisthonema sp. or plumuda in Colombia), either separately or combined, as a substitute for external fat sources in a Leberkäse product. Three stages were analyzed, evaluating biometric proportions, body performance, and meat batters containing different concentrations of fish pastes. Physicochemical and instrumental characterization analyses were performed to determine the effect of the type of fish paste and the level of its inclusion in the final product. Results showed that plumuda fish paste had higher protein and ash content than carduma fish paste, and the inclusion of carduma fish paste in meat batters led to a greater loss of liquid and lower emulsion and gel stability values. The study also established selection criteria for the two pelagic fish species that could be useful for the fishing industry. Overall, the study demonstrated that Leberkäse can be produced using these pelagic species with a relatively simple processing technology.

Biological patterns of reproduction of the Brazilian sardine Sardinella brasiliensis in the purse seine fishery of Southwest Atlantic Ocean: A long-term assessment.

Recent estimates of the size at first maturity (L50) of Sardinella brasiliensis showed contradictory results with a decreasing in the fish stock biomass encompassed by increasing values of L50. The methodological approach used hereby allowed to separate sardines classified in the virginal maturity stage from those categorized in the recovery stage, and ready for one next spawning event. This study evaluated the hypothesis of the existence of separated stocks experiencing distinct environmental conditions and fishing pressures which may have altered L50 estimates using a robust dataset based on biological samples collected along the entire species distribution area in the southeast-south Brazilian coast [Rio de Janeiro (RJ), São Paulo (SP), Paraná (PR), Santa Catarina (SC) and Rio Grande do Sul (RS)] between 2000 and 2018. A reclassification of the gonadal maturity stages provided a more realistic estimate of L50. Combining biological, reproductive, fishing data and the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), the leave-one-out classification correctly re-assigned individuals with an overall accuracy of 85% [100% (RJ), 45% (SP), 99% (PR), 99% (SC) and 82% (RS)]. The connectivity between the local populations of S. brasiliensis off RJ (23°S) and the southern populations is limited, contrasting to spatial structured semi-discrete population-units found between SP and RS (24°S-30°S). The northern extreme population-unit (RJ, 22°S-23°S) showed an expressive reduction of L50, and a negative correlation was detected between the increasing MTC values and the abundance of early maturing individuals and recruits of the species. Stock specific L50 estimates seemed to act as indicators of long term environmental fluctuations.

An equatorial mid-Atlantic Ocean archipelago as nursery area for the cookiecutter shark: Investigating foraging strategies of neonates through bite mark inferences.

This study delves into the foraging ecology of the cookiecutter shark (Isistius brasiliensis) in the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago (SPSPA), assessing bite marks on pelagic fishes collected between March and September 2018. Examination of 200 individuals from five species revealed the shark's predilection for targeting adult fish, ensuring efficient removal of energy-rich tissue layers. However, a notable exception is Thunnus albacares, preyed on predominantly during its juvenile stage, possibly due to vertical spatial segregation. Recent bites were pervasive across species, with wahoo displaying a distinctive pattern. Cookiecutter shark bites predominantly targeted the lateral body portion (>55%) except for yellowfin tuna, which exhibited a preference for the ventral region (95%). The estimated length distribution suggests the SPSPA as a potential nursery area for cookiecutter sharks. Bite mark positions and frequencies may be linked to fish behavior, swimming velocity, and fishing gear strategy, highlighting the complex interplay in pelagic ecosystems.

Daily age, growth rate, and pelagic larval duration of commercially important snapper species in Abrolhos National Marine Park.

The age and daily growth of fish are registered through the deposition of increments in their otoliths, which are concretions formed by the precipitation of substances present in the endolymphatic fluid, mainly calcium carbonate (CaCO3). Faced with the need to fill some of the gaps in the knowledge on the occurrence and duration of the initial stages of snapper species' life cycles in the Abrolhos Bank, this study aimed to describe the growth rates, age, and period of pelagic larval duration (PLD) of three snapper species during the larval pre-settlement phase, in the Abrolhos Bank region. The post-larvae were captured using light traps. Otoliths were removed from 117 samples of snapper species; however, only 69 were viable for age estimation, of which 15 were Lutjanus analis, 25 were Lutjanus jocu, and 29 were Lutjanus synagris. Together, the samples presented individuals with total lengths ranging from 16.14 to 24.76 mm and ages from 21 to 39 days. Settlement marks were found for all three species, and the average PLD was ~25 days. The somatic growth of the snapper species was positively correlated with otolith growth. L. jocu presented the greatest daily growth compared to the other species. The three species use the Abrolhos Bank as a larval settlement site, demonstrating plasticity by using different habitats throughout their lives.

Clinging fauna associated with nearshore pelagic sargassum rafts in the Eastern Caribbean: Implications for coastal in-water harvesting.

Tropical Atlantic blooms of pelagic Sargassum species are associated with severe inundation events along the coasts of Caribbean and West African nations that cause extensive ecological and socioeconomic harm. The use of in-water harvesting as a management strategy avoids the plethora of challenges associated with shoreline inundations. Moreover, with a growing interest in the valorisation of this raw material, in-water harvesting provides the best opportunity to collect substantial amounts of 'fresh' sargassum that can be used in a variety of applications. However, in-water harvesting of sargassum will remove organisms associated with the floating habitat, resulting in loss of biodiversity, thus creating a potential management dilemma. To address this management concern, we assessed the clinging fauna associated with sargassum rafts at various distances from shore. From a total of 119 dipnet samples of sargassum, we recorded 18 taxa, across 6 phyla (Arthropoda, Mollusca, Chordata, Platyhelminthes, Nemathelminthes, Annelida) with the phylum Arthropoda being the most speciose (n = 10). Our multivariate and model selection analyses support that distance from shore and season are the most important drivers of variability in community composition and that season is the most important driver of individual abundance and number of taxa across samples. Overall, rafts within 0-3000 m of the shoreline of Barbados harbored low biodiversity and were dominated by small invertebrates (mean size: 5.5 mm) of no commercial value. Results suggest that biodiversity trade-offs associated with in-water sargassum harvesting in coastal areas are likely to be negligible.

Colonization, diversity, and seasonality of fishes at pelagic fish aggregating devices.

The pelagic zone of the ocean can be a challenging environment in which to conduct research and as a result we lack the robust baseline abundance and diversity data, compared to what is available in more accessible coastal habitats, to be able to track changes or stressors to the biota in this environment. Many large-scale fisheries target pelagic fish, and much of the information available on these species is based on fisheries-dependent data that may be biased towards hotspots and commercially valuable fishes. Here, a long-term video and visual fish survey was conducted on two subsurface moored fish aggregating devices (FADs) in the pelagic waters of the central Bahamas to determine the feasibility of using moored pelagic FADs as tools for collecting fish abundance and diversity data. A wide range of species was documented, including large migratory fish that are the focus of commercial and recreational fisheries, and smaller often overlooked species on which little abundance or seasonality information exists. We found that FADs colonize quickly and reach a peak stable (albeit seasonally cyclical) abundance and diversity within the first several months after deployment. Species richness was higher in video surveys, but abundance was higher in visual surveys, except for sharks. Our results highlight the need to tailor survey methods to fit the context and study objective, and provide further evidence for the importance of fisheries-independent data in monitoring pelagic species.

Population dynamics of pelagic rotifers in Marala Headworks (Pakistan) / Dinâmica populacional de rotíferos pelágicos em Marala Headworks (Paquistão)

Research work was designed to investigate the density and diversity of pelagic rotifers in a Lake near Marala Headworks. The physico-chemical parameters of water such as pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, electrical conductivity, transparency and turbidity were evaluated. Correlation between rotifers and these parameters was also studied. Plankton sampling was done on monthly basis in order to check the population density of rotifers. In total, 18 species of rotifers were identified which belonged to 11 genera. The highest number of rotifers and their diversity was shown by genera namely Brachionus, Keratella, and Filinia. The Brachionus calyciflorus was dominant species in all the samples with mean population density (41%). Analysis of variance of physico-chemical parameters presented that the air and water temperature, electrical conductivity, transparency, dissolved oxygen and oxygen saturation were statistically significant in all the months. While pH was statistically non-significant (p≥0.05. Pearson correlation showed that oxygen and transparency were negatively correlated with rotifers density and diversity. Air and water temperature, concentration of hydrogen ions (pH), electrical conductivity and salinity showed positive relationship with density and diversity of rotifers.

O trabalho de pesquisa foi projetado para investigar a densidade e diversidade de rotíferos pelágicos em um lago perto de Marala Headworks. Foram avaliados os parâmetros físico-químicos da água como pH, oxigênio dissolvido, temperatura, condutividade elétrica, transparência e turbidez. A correlação entre rotíferos e esses parâmetros também foi estudada. A amostragem do plâncton foi realizada mensalmente para verificar a densidade populacional dos rotíferos. No total, foram identificadas 18 espécies de rotíferos pertencentes a 11 gêneros. O maior número de rotíferos e sua diversidade foi demonstrado pelos gêneros Brachionus, Keratella e Filinia. O Brachionus calyciflorus foi a espécie dominante em todas as amostras, com densidade populacional média (41%). A análise de variância dos parâmetros físico-químicos mostrou que a temperatura do ar e da água, condutividade elétrica, transparência, oxigênio dissolvido e saturação de oxigênio foram estatisticamente significantes em todos os meses. Enquanto o pH foi estatisticamente não significativo (p≥0,05), a correlação de Pearson mostrou que o oxigênio e a transparência foram negativamente correlacionados com a densidade e diversidade dos rotíferos. A temperatura do ar e da água, a concentração de íons de hidrogênio (pH), a condutividade elétrica e a salinidade mostraram relação positiva com a densidade e diversidade de rotíferos.

Environmental aspects and management preferences: A case study of small pelagic fisheries in the Crucita parish of the Portoviejo canton.

The extractive context of artisanal fishing in Ecuador is very broad and diverse considering the different fishing equipment that is used to capture a very varied set of species. As part of this broad sector, there is a small pelagic fishery, which is in the Crucita parish of the Portoviejo canton and is a long-standing and economically very relevant resource for the community. The objective of this article is to analyze the environmental and management aspects of this fishery as aspects relevant to achieving sustainable exploitation. To this end, information was collected from the beneficiaries of the purse-seine fishing fleet with the use of a structured questionnaire. The results revealed that there is widespread ignorance of the environmental aspects that affect the conservation of ecosystems and marine bioresources. On the other hand, the fishermen are aware of a general need to implement management measures that guarantee the sustainability of their fishing. However, they consider that the current regulations are not adapted to the current local context. Finally, from the perspective of those involved, the implementation of minimum capture sizes as a management measure could guarantee the sustainable capture of the species.

Metagenomic Analyses Reveal the Influence of Depth Layers on Marine Biodiversity on Tropical and Subtropical Regions.

The emergence of open ocean global-scale studies provided important information about the genomics of oceanic microbial communities. Metagenomic analyses shed light on the structure of marine habitats, unraveling the biodiversity of different water masses. Many biological and environmental factors can contribute to marine organism composition, such as depth. However, much remains unknown about microbial communities' taxonomic and functional features in different water layer depths. Here, we performed a metagenomic analysis of 76 publicly available samples from the Tara Ocean Project, distributed in 8 collection stations located in tropical or subtropical regions, and sampled from three layers of depth (surface water layer-SRF, deep chlorophyll maximum layer-DCM, and mesopelagic zone-MES). The SRF and DCM depth layers are similar in abundance and diversity, while the MES layer presents greater diversity than the other layers. Diversity clustering analysis shows differences regarding the taxonomic content of samples. At the domain level, bacteria prevail in most samples, and the MES layer presents the highest proportion of archaea among all samples. Taken together, our results indicate that the depth layer influences microbial sample composition and diversity.

Influence of pelagic sargassum influxes on the δ15N in Thalassia testudinum of the Mexican Caribbean coastal ecosystem.

The conservation of Mexican Caribbean Ecosystems (MCE) involves ensuring their capacity to provide resources and ecosystem services to society. Monitoring programs are necessary to establish their management and ensure their sustainability. Thalassia testudinum is the community used to determine anthropogenic influence, in which wastewater is the primary anthropogenic nitrogen source. The extensive amount of pelagic sargassum that enters the area and its decomposition may be additional nitrogen sources in MCE. In the present study, the δ15N in T. testudinum was examined from 2009 to 2019 to infer the nitrogen contribution from pelagic sargassum to MCE. T. testudinum δ15N values showed significant depletion from June/October 2014 to 2019 concerning previous periods. Pelagic sargassum was an alternative nitrogen source, and its leaching reduced T. testudinum δ15N values in MCE.

Movement and population dispersal of dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) across the Eastern Tropical Pacific inferred from carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses.

The dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) is a globally distributed marine predator that supports one of the most important coastal fisheries along the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), but its spatial movements in this area are poorly understood. Stable isotope values (δ13 C and δ15 N) of white muscle from dolphinfish (n = 220) captured at different locations across the ETP (i.e., Mexico, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru and oceanic areas) were normalized to copepod baseline stable isotope values to estimate dolphinfish trophic position, movements and population dispersal. Movement or residence patterns were inferred from the difference in δ15 N values (Δ15 Ndolphinfish-copepod ‰) between copepods and dolphinfish muscle. Baseline corrected isotope values (δ13 Cdolphinfish-copepod and δ15 Ndolphinfish-copepod ) of dolphinfish muscle were used to estimate isotopic niche metrics and infer population dispersal across isoscapes. Values of δ13 C and δ15 N differed between juvenile and adult dolphinfish and across the ETP. Trophic position estimates ranged from 3.1 to 6.0 with a mean of 4.6. Adults and juveniles had similar trophic position estimates, whereas isotopic niche areas (SEA ‰2 ) of adults were greater relative to juveniles in every location. Adult dolphinfish showed "moderate movement by some individuals" in all locations based on Δ15 Ndolphinfish-copepod values, except for Costa Rica where adults were classified with "high degree of movement by some individuals" whereas juveniles showed "limited movement" in all areas except Mexico. Population dispersal based on Δ15 Ndolphinfish-copepod values showed "moderate" and "high" dispersal for adults and "no dispersal" for most juveniles, except for Mexico. This study provides insight into potential dolphinfish spatial mobility across an area of interest for multiple nations, which can help to improve stock assessments and management of the species.

An analysis of arsenic concentrations associated with sargassum influx events in Barbados.

Tropical Atlantic blooms of pelagic Sargassum spp. present major socioeconomic and ecological challenges for Caribbean and West African nations. Valorisation of sargassum provides an opportunity to ameliorate some of the damage to national economies; however, the active uptake of arsenic by pelagic sargassum creates significant barriers to its use. When defining valorisation pathways, it is important to understand arsenic speciation in pelagic sargassum, given the different levels of toxicity associated with different arsenic species. In this study, we assess the temporal variability of total arsenic and inorganic arsenic in pelagic sargassum arriving in Barbados; and test whether arsenic concentrations are linked to oceanic sub-origins. Results indicate that inorganic arsenic, the most toxic form, represents a consistent and substantial percentage of the total arsenic present in pelagic sargassum, and that variability in arsenic concentration does not appear to be driven by sample months, years or oceanic sub-origins/transport pathways.

Spatial-temporal dynamics of decaying stages of pelagic Sargassum spp. along shorelines in Puerto Rico using Google Earth Engine.

Coastal social-ecological systems in the Caribbean are affected by pelagic Sargassum spp. influxes and decomposition, but most satellite monitoring efforts focus on offshore waters. We developed a method to detect and spatial-temporally assess sargassum accumulations and their decaying stages along the shoreline and nearshore waters. A multi-predictor Random Forest model combining Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument reflectance bands and several vegetation, seaweed, water, and water quality indices was developed within the online Google Earth Engine platform. The model achieved 97 % overall accuracy and identified both fresh and decomposing sargassum, as well as the Sargassum-brown-tide generated from decomposing sargassum. We identified three hotspots of sargassum accumulation in La Parguera, Puerto Rico and found that sargassum was present every month in at least one of its forms during the entire time series (September 2015-January 2022). This research provides information to understand sargassum impacts and areas where mitigation efforts need to focus.

Improvement in Methane Production from Pelagic Sargassum Using Combined Pretreatments.

The constant golden tides of Sargassum spp., identified to be a mixture of Sargassum natans and Sargassum fluitans, observed recently in the Mexican Caribbean have affected the marine ecosystem and the local economy and have created the need for solutions for their management and use. The Sargassum arrivals have thus been considered as third-generation feedstock for biofuel. Their potential for energetic conversion to biomethane was investigated, with hydrolysis as the limiting step due to its complex composition; therefore, in the present study, different physical, chemical, and enzymatic pretreatments and a combination of them have been evaluated, with the additional use of granular activated carbon, to determine the best yield and methane quality. The combined pretreatments of 2.5% hydrogen peroxide, followed by an enzymatic pretreatment (enzymatic extract from Trametes hirsuta isolated from decomposing wood in the Yucatán Peninsula-Mexico), was the best option, reaching a biodegradability of 95% and maximum methane yield of 387 ± 3.09 L CH4/kg volatile solid. The use of a conductive material, such as granular activated carbon, did not generate significant changes in performance and methane concentration.

Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean.

Small-scale fisheries (SSF) contribute to nearly half of global landings and provide multiple socioeconomic benefits to coastal communities. The Pacific coast SSF represents 37% of the total fisheries landings in Colombia. Scientific literature continually shows that tropical marine habitats are most vulnerable to oceanic changes associated with climate change. This study prioritized three pelagic species (Euthynnus lineatus, Scomberomorus sierra, and Cynoscion albus) based on their landing statistics to develop potential current and future species distributions using five ensembled machine learning models including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Random Forest (RF), and Classification Tree (CT). Future distributions of these species in the medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2080s) were modeled using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios for four ensembled General Circulation Models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, change detections were calculated to identify contraction and expansion of areas, and the distributional core shift was determined to estimate the spatial movements. Results indicate that E. lineatus and S. sierra will potentially move to deeper waters away from the coastline. Alternatively, C. albus could be a species to potentially gain more importance for the fishing sector due to potential variations in climate. These results constitute a critical scientific basis for evaluating the climate change vulnerability of the fishing sector and the decision-making process in the future of small-scale fishery management in the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean.

Climate change in the coastal ocean: shifts in pelagic productivity and regionally diverging dynamics of coastal ecosystems.

Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment-stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock-recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest.