SIR+ models: accounting for interaction-dependent disease susceptibility in the planning of public health interventions.

Avoiding physical contact is regarded as one of the safest and most advisable strategies to follow to reduce pathogen spread. The flip side of this approach is that a lack of social interactions may negatively affect other dimensions of health, like induction of immunosuppressive anxiety and depression or preventing interactions of importance with a diversity of microbes, which may be necessary to train our immune system or to maintain its normal levels of activity. These may in turn negatively affect a population's susceptibility to infection and the incidence of severe disease. We suggest that future pandemic modelling may benefit from relying on 'SIR+ models': epidemiological models extended to account for the benefits of social interactions that affect immune resilience. We develop an SIR+ model and discuss which specific interventions may be more effective in balancing the trade-off between minimizing pathogen spread and maximizing other interaction-dependent health benefits. Our SIR+ model reflects the idea that health is not just the mere absence of disease, but rather a state of physical, mental and social well-being that can also be dependent on the same social connections that allow pathogen spread, and the modelling of public health interventions for future pandemics should account for this multidimensionality.

Public transit mobility as a leading indicator of COVID-19 transmission in 40 cities during the first wave of the pandemic.

Background: The rapid global emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 created urgent demand for leading indicators to track the spread of the virus and assess the consequences of public health measures designed to limit transmission. Public transit mobility, which has been shown to be responsive to previous societal disruptions such as disease outbreaks and terrorist attacks, emerged as an early candidate. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal ecological study of the association between public transit mobility reductions and COVID-19 transmission using publicly available data from a public transit app in 40 global cities from March 16 to April 12, 2020. Multilevel linear regression models were used to estimate the association between COVID-19 transmission and the value of the mobility index 2 weeks prior using two different outcome measures: weekly case ratio and effective reproduction number. Results: Over the course of March 2020, median public transit mobility, measured by the volume of trips planned in the app, dropped from 100% (first quartile (Q1)-third quartile (Q3) = 94-108%) of typical usage to 10% (Q1-Q3 = 6-15%). Mobility was strongly associated with COVID-19 transmission 2 weeks later: a 10% decline in mobility was associated with a 12.3% decrease in the weekly case ratio (exp(ß) = 0.877; 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.859-0.896]) and a decrease in the effective reproduction number (ß = -0.058; 95% CI: [-0.068 to -0.048]). The mobility-only models explained nearly 60% of variance in the data for both outcomes. The adjustment for epidemic timing attenuated the associations between mobility and subsequent COVID-19 transmission but only slightly increased the variance explained by the models. Discussion: Our analysis demonstrated the value of public transit mobility as a leading indicator of COVID-19 transmission during the first wave of the pandemic in 40 global cities, at a time when few such indicators were available. Factors such as persistently depressed demand for public transit since the onset of the pandemic limit the ongoing utility of a mobility index based on public transit usage. This study illustrates an innovative use of "big data" from industry to inform the response to a global pandemic, providing support for future collaborations aimed at important public health challenges.

Social contact patterns during the early COVID-19 pandemic in Norway: insights from a panel study, April to September 2020.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries adopted social distance measures and lockdowns of varying strictness. Social contact patterns are essential in driving the spread of respiratory infections, and country-specific measurements are needed. This study aimed to gain insights into changes in social contacts and behaviour during the early pandemic phase in Norway. METHODS: We conducted an online panel study among a nationally representative sample of Norwegian adults by age and gender. The panel study included six data collections waves between April and September 2020, and 2017 survey data from a random sample of the Norwegian population (including children < 18 years old) were used as baseline. The market research company Ipsos was responsible for carrying out the 2020 surveys. We calculated mean daily contacts, and estimated age-stratified contact matrices during the study period employing imputation of child-to-child contacts. We used the next-generation method to assess the relative reduction of R0 and compared the results to reproduction numbers estimated for Norway during the 2020 study period. RESULTS: Over the six waves in 2020, 5 938 observations/responses were registered from 1 718 individuals who reported data on 22 074 contacts. The mean daily number of contacts among adults varied between 3.2 (95%CI 3.0-3.4) to 3.9 (95%CI 3.6-4.2) across the data collection waves, representing a 67-73% decline compared to pre-pandemic levels (baseline). Fewer contacts in the community setting largely drove the reduction; the drop was most prominent among younger adults. Despite gradual easing of social distance measures during the survey period, the estimated population contact matrices remained relatively stable and displayed more inter-age group mixing than at baseline. Contacts within households and the community outside schools and workplaces contributed most to social encounters. Using the next-generation method R0 was found to be roughly 25% of pre-pandemic levels during the study period, suggesting controlled transmission. CONCLUSION: Social contacts declined significantly in the months following the March 2020 lockdown, aligning with implementation of stringent social distancing measures. These findings contribute valuable empirical information into the social behaviour in Norway during the early pandemic, which can be used to enhance policy-relevant models for addressing future crises when mitigation measures might be implemented.

Otitis Media With Effusion After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Return to the Past and New Lessons.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of otitis media with effusion (OME) among children who attended a tertiary level audiologic center 2 and 3 years after the COVID-19 lockdown, and to determine the impact of temporary interruption of day care center attendance on chronic OME. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Tertiary level referral audiologic center. METHODS: We assessed the prevalence of OME among children aged 6 months to 12 years in 3 different periods (May-June 2022, January-February 2023, and May-June 2023) and compared the results with those of the corresponding periods before the COVID-19 lockdown. We also compared the disease resolution rates between a subgroup of children with chronic OME who interrupted day care center attendance for a 2-month period (Subgroup A) and a similar subgroup who continued attending day care centers (Subgroup B). RESULTS: The prevalence of OME was 38.5% (138/358) in May-June 2022, 51.9% (193/372) in January-February 2023, and 40.9% (149/364) in May-June 2023. No significant prevalence differences were observed between the periods May-June 2019, May-June 2022, and May-June 2023 (P = .78), and between the periods January-February 2020 and January-February 2023 (P = .93). At the May-June 2023 assessment, the children belonging to Subgroup A presented a greater rate of disease resolution (85.7%, 18/21) than the children belonging to Subgroup B (32%, 8/25, P < .001). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the prevalence of OME has returned to prelockdown levels, and that interrupting day care center attendance for a 2-month period could be effective in resolving most cases of chronic OME.

Incidence and disease burden of autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases after non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 era: A nationwide observational study in Korea.

BACKGROUND: Infections are considered risk factors for autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIRDs), the incidence of which is considered to have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the incidence of AIRDs and their associated health care services and medical expenses in Korea was investigated. METHODS: We included all AIRD cases reported between January 2016 and February 2021 based on the National Health Insurance Service data. We evaluated changes in incidence trends for each AIRD before and after NPI implementation (Feb 2020 to Feb 2021) using segmented regression analysis. Changes in health care utilization and medical costs for each AIRD before and after NPI implementation were also investigated. RESULTS: After NPI implementation, monthly incidence rates declined significantly by 0.205 per 1 000 000 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.308 to -0.101, p < .001) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). No significant changes in the incidence of all AIRDs other than SLE were observed before and after implementation. Further, annual outpatient department visits per patient were lower during implementation for all diseases, except juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The prescription days per outpatient visit increased significantly during implementation for all diseases, except JIA and ankylosing spondylitis. During implementation, the total annual medical costs per patient tended to decrease for all diseases, except JIA and mixed connective tissue disease. CONCLUSION: Implementation of NPIs to contain the pandemic led to a reduction in the incidence of SLE and changed patterns of medical care utilization and treatment cost for most AIRDs.

Interventional Study of Nonpharmaceutical Measures to Prevent COVID-19 Aboard Cruise Ships.

Cruise ships carrying COVID-19-vaccinated populations applied near-identical nonpharmaceutical measures during July-November 2021; passenger masking was not applied on 2 ships. Infection risk for masked passengers was 14.58 times lower than for unmasked passengers and 19.61 times lower than in the community. Unmasked passengers' risk was slightly lower than community risk.

Risk of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Seoul, Korea.

BACKGROUND: The risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission during the endemic phase may vary from that during the previous pandemic phase. We evaluated the risk of infection in a general population with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a community setting in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included 1,286 individuals who had been in contact with an index COVID-19 case between January 24, 2020, and June 30, 2022. Variables such as age, sex, nationality, place of contact, level of contact, the status of exposed cases, period, and level of mask-wearing were assessed. RESULTS: Among 1,286 participants, 132 (10.30%) were confirmed to have COVID-19. With increasing age, the risk of the exposed persons contracting COVID-19 from index cases tended to increase (P <0.001), especially for people in their 70s (odds ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.11 - 1.40, P <0.001). We found an increasing trend in the risk of a COVID-19 exposed case becoming a secondary infection case (P <0.001) in long-term care facilities where the attack rate was high. CONCLUSION: The risk of COVID-19 transmission is high in long-term care facilities where many older adults reside. Intensive management of facilities at risk of infection and strict mask-wearing of confirmed COVID-19 cases are necessary to prevent the risk of COVID-19 infection.

Physical Distancing for Gay Men from People Living with HIV During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The fear of COVID-19 can exacerbate social stigma and prejudice against individuals living with HIV (PLWH). This research delved into the behaviors of MSM (men who have sex with men) who practice physical-distancing from PLWH. Data from 878 respondents were collected through a web survey conducted on Korea's largest LGBT portal site over one month in July 2022. The study examined various independent variables encompassing socioeconomic characteristics, health status, media consumption habits, and homosexual attributes of MSM. The dependent variable assessed was the extent of physical-distancing perceived by MSMs without HIV toward PLWH. The statistical analysis employed nested regression models. In Model I, it was observed that physical-distancing from PLWH decreased as the age and education level of the respondent increased. In Model II, a decrease in physical-distancing was noted among respondents with underlying health conditions. Model III indicated that increased use of traditional media corresponded to greater physical-distancing from PLWH. Lastly, Model IV revealed a reduction in physical-distancing when the respondent was themselves a person living with HIV. This study underscores the existence of physical-distancing toward PLWH within the gay community. Consequently, fostering solidarity and providing support becomes imperative to prevent the isolation of PLWH within this community.

Compliance in the public versus the private realm: Economic preferences, institutional trust and COVID-19 health behaviors.

To what extent do economic preferences and institutional trust predict compliance with physical distancing rules during the COVID-19 pandemic? We reexamine this question by introducing the theoretical and empirical distinction between individual health behaviors in the public and in the private domain (e.g., keeping a distance from strangers vs. abstaining from private gatherings with friends). Using structural equation modeling to analyze survey data from Germany's second wave of the pandemic (N = 3350), we reveal the following major differences between compliance in both domains: Social preferences, especially (positive) reciprocity, play an essential role in predicting compliance in the public domain but are barely relevant in the private domain. Conversely, individuals' degree of trust in the national government matters predominantly for increasing compliance in the private domain. The clearly strongest predictor in this domain is the perception pandemic-related threats. Our findings encourage tailoring communication strategies to either domain-specific circumstances or factors common across domains. Tailored communication may also help promote compliance with other health-related regulatory policies beyond COVID-19.

The impact of social distancing measures on anti-JC virus serostatus changes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in US patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic offered an epidemiological opportunity to evaluate if isolation and masking affected John Cunningham (JC) virus transmission. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the proportion of natalizumab-treated patients who converted to a positive anti-JCV antibody serostatus before and during the pandemic. METHODS: Data from TYSABRI Outreach: Unified Commitment to Health (TOUCH) for 22,375 US patients treated with natalizumab with anti-JCV antibody records were assessed in epochs annually from 2017 to 2022. RESULTS: Pre-pandemic anti-JCV antibody serostatus change was observed for 7.4%-7.7%. During the first and second years of the pandemic, 7.3% and 7.2% of patients' serostatus changed, respectively. CONCLUSION: The proportion of patients with anti-JCV antibody serostatus change did not significantly differ during the first 2 years of the pandemic compared with prior years. In contrast to seasonal influenza, masking and social distancing had no discernable effect on JCV serostatus change.

COVID-19 Pandemic, Physical Distancing Policies, and the Non-Profit Sector Volunteer Force.

Although COVID-19-related physical distancing has had large economic consequences, the impact on volunteerism is unclear. Using volunteer position postings data from Canada's largest volunteer center (Volunteer Toronto) from February 3, 2020, to January 4, 2021, we evaluated the impact of different levels of physical distancing on average views, total views, and total number of posts. There was about a 50% decrease in the total number of posts that was sustained throughout the pandemic. Although a more restrictive physical distancing policy was generally associated with fewer views, there was an initial increase in views during the first lockdown where total views were elevated for the first 4 months of the pandemic. This was driven by interest in COVID-19-related and remote work postings. This highlights the community of volunteers may be quite flexible in terms of adapting to new ways of volunteering, but substantial challenges remain for the continued operations of many non-profit organizations.

Development of New Stringency Indices for Nonpharmacological Social Distancing Policies Implemented in Korea During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Random Forest Approach.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of an effective treatment method or vaccine, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic elicited a wide range of unprecedented restriction policies aimed at mitigating and suppressing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These policies and their Stringency Index (SI) of more than 160 countries were systematically recorded in the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) data set. The SI is a summary measure of the overall strictness of these policies. However, the OxCGRT SI may not fully reflect the stringency levels of the restriction policies implemented in Korea. Korea implemented 33 COVID-19 restriction policies targeting 4 areas: public facilities, public events, social gatherings, and religious gatherings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop new Korea Stringency Indices (KSIs) that reflect the stringency levels of Korea's restriction policies better and to determine which government-implemented policies were most effective in managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. METHODS: The random forest method was used to calculate the new KSIs using feature importance values and determine their effectiveness in managing daily COVID-19 confirmed cases. Five analysis periods were considered, including November 01, 2020, to January 20, 2021 (Period 1), January 20, 2021, to June 27, 2021 (Period 2), November 01, 2020, to June 27, 2021 (Period 3), June 27, 2021, to November 01, 2021 (Period 4), and November 01, 2021, to April 24, 2022 (Period 5). RESULTS: Among the KSIs, public facilities in period 4, public events in period 2, religious gatherings in periods 1 and 3, and social gatherings in period 5 had the highest importance. Among the public facilities, policies associated with operation hour restrictions in cinemas, restaurants, PC rooms, indoor sports facilities, karaoke, coffee shops, night entertainment facilities, and baths or saunas had the highest importance across all analysis periods. Strong positive correlations were observed between daily confirmed cases and public facilities, religious gatherings, and public events in period 1 of the pandemic. From then, weaker and negative correlations were observed in the remaining analysis periods. The comparison with the OxCGRT SI showed that the SI had a relatively lower feature importance and correlation with daily confirmed cases than the proposed KSIs, making KSIs more effective than SI. CONCLUSIONS: Restriction policies targeting public facilities were the most effective among the policies analyzed. In addition, different periods call for the enforcement of different policies given their effectiveness varies during the pandemic.

Understanding Physical Distancing and Face Mask Use Across High-Risk African American Subgroups During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Health Belief Model.

Physical distancing and face masks remain frontline prevention strategies due to suboptimal vaccine uptake and the highly infectious COVID-19 variants. Communities of color are disproportionately impacted by a chronic disease burden that places them at higher risk of severe COVID-19 disease. Therefore, they can greatly benefit from face mask use and physical distancing, especially if the individual(s) have not received the vaccine. We applied the Health Belief Model to explore barriers and motivators influencing physical distancing and face mask use among high-risk, Black American subgroups during the early COVID-19 pandemic stages. We conducted 62 semi-structured interviews among four Black American subgroups: young adults, individuals with underlying medical conditions, essential workers, and parents. Thematic analysis, guided by the Health Belief Model, yielded six themes: (1) Knowledge on Face Mask Use and Physical Distancing, (2) Perceived Susceptibility and Severity Varies by Subgroup, (3) Experience with and Perceived Self-Efficacy to Engage in Preventive Behavior, (4) Perceived Benefits to engaging in preventive behaviors, (5) Perceived Barriers to engage in preventive behaviors, and (6) Cues to action to increase participation. Each subgroup's unique experience informed multilevel, tailored approaches that can be used by health promotion practitioners to improve face mask use and physical distancing among uniquely vulnerable Black American subgroups in the current and future pandemic.

How well do we do social distancing?

During the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many jurisdictions around the world introduced a "social distance" rule under which people are instructed to keep a certain distance from others. Generally, this rule is implemented simply by telling people how many metres or feet of separation should be kept, without giving them precise instructions as to how the specified distance can be measured. Consequently, the rule is effective only to the extent that people are able to gauge this distance through their space perception. To examine the effectiveness of the rule from this point of view, this study empirically investigated how much distance people would leave from another person when they relied on their perception of this distance. Participants (N = 153) were asked to stand exactly 1.5 m away from a researcher, and resultant interpersonal distances showed that while their mean was close to the correct 1.5 m distance, they exhibited large individual differences. These results suggest that a number of people would not stay sufficiently away from others even when they intend to do proper social distancing. Given this outcome, it is suggested that official health advice include measures that compensate for this tendency.

Context Matters: Patterns in Physical Distancing Behavior Across Situations and Over Time During the Covid-19 Pandemic in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Physical distancing is an effective preventative measure during respiratory infectious disease outbreaks. Prior studies on distancing behaviors have largely ignored context characteristics (physical, social) and time. PURPOSE: We investigated patterns in physical distancing over time and across situations, as well as sociodemographic variation herein. METHODS: We employed data from five rounds of a cohort study conducted throughout the pandemic by the Dutch public health institute (RIVM; N ≈ 50.000 per round). We conducted Latent Class Analyses to investigate patterns of physical distancing in a range of situations, followed by regression models to investigate associations between distancing behavior and sociodemographic and context characteristics. RESULTS: Participants differed in their general tendency to adhere to distancing guidelines across situations, but there were also substantial differences in distancing behavior between situations, particularly at work, with friends and family and outdoors. Distancing at work was strongly associated with work environment characteristics. Younger age groups reported less distancing behavior, particularly with close relations (friends or family) and at work. In periods when the pandemic situation was most severe, people adhered more strongly to distancing guidelines and age differences were most pronounced during these periods. CONCLUSIONS: Physical and social context matters for physical distancing, highlighting the importance of developing strategies for pandemic preparedness that improve opportunities for physical distancing (e.g., reducing crowding, one-way traffic) and accommodate young people to safely meet even in times of high pandemic severity and lockdowns. Future studies should account for the physical and social context in which distancing behavior is observed.

Physical distancing helps reduce the transmission of infectious diseases, but people's opportunities and willingness to keep distance from others can vary between situations. In a survey conducted at various time points during the Covid-19 pandemic, The Dutch National Public Health Institute asked people about their distancing behavior in various such situations, such as at work, when grocery shopping or when visiting with friends and family. We found that people mainly differed in their general tendency to keep distance from others: some individuals were more likely to keep distance than others in all situations. However, there were also substantial differences in distancing behavior at work, with friends and family and outdoors. Differences in distancing at work resulted from the specific work context and activities people had to perform. Younger age groups reported less distancing behavior in social situations such as when meeting with friends and family or with colleagues. In periods when the pandemic situation was most severe, people were more likely to keep their distance from others and there were larger age differences in distancing behavior. These results highlight the importance of improving people's opportunities to keep their distance from others and safely meet in times of a severe pandemic.

Medidas de proteção contra a COVID-19: impactos comunicativos, sociais e emocionais em usuários de aparelhos de amplificação sonora individual / Protective measures against COVID-19: communicative, social and emotional impacts on hearing aids users

RESUMO Objetivo investigar os impactos comunicativos, sociais e emocionais gerados pela adoção de medidas protetivas contra a COVID-19 e associá-los ao grau da perda auditiva e ao tempo de uso dos aparelhos de amplificação sonora individual. Métodos estudo transversal e quantitativo, com 72 indivíduos, divididos em adultos e idosos, com perda auditiva bilateral, de grau até moderadamente severo, protetizados antes da pandemia em um programa público de saúde auditiva e que mantiveram uso efetivo dos dispositivos. Os sujeitos foram convidados a participar do estudo enquanto aguardavam consulta. Os prontuários foram acessados, a fim de coletar informações sobre o perfil audiológico e adaptação/uso dos aparelhos de amplificação sonora individual. Em sala silenciosa, foi aplicado, oralmente, protocolo contendo questões objetivas e os dados foram tabulados e submetidos aos testes estatísticos Igualdade de Duas Proporções e Qui-Quadrado. Resultados nos dois grupos, um número significativo de usuários teve a comunicação impactada pelo uso de máscaras e pelo distanciamento físico, predominando, entre os adultos, a dificuldade com as tecnologias digitais (celulares/computadores), enquanto nas videochamadas, os prejuízos comunicativos foram mais experenciados pelos idosos. Os empecilhos comunicativos e sociais existiram, independentemente do perfil audiológico e do tempo de uso dos dispositivos. Quando questionados se deixaram de se comunicar e se as medidas afetaram a sua vida social, as respostas ficaram divididas entre "sim/às vezes" e "não". Quanto ao impacto emocional das medidas protetivas, constatou-se maior repercussão entre os adultos. Conclusão as medidas protetivas afetaram a comunicação dos usuários de aparelhos de amplificação sonora individual, porém, não desencorajaram as trocas comunicativas e as interações sociais de, aproximadamente, metade da amostra, sendo o impacto emocional mais evidente nos adultos. Tais dificuldades não estiveram relacionadas ao perfil audiológico e uso diário dos dispositivos.

ABSTRACT Purpose to investigate the communicative, social, and emotional impacts generated by adopting protective measures against COVID-19 and associate them with the degree of hearing loss and the time of use of hearing aids. Methods cross-sectional quantitative study, with 72 individuals, divided into adults and older adults, with bilateral hearing loss up to moderately severe degree, users of hearing aids fitted before the pandemic in a public hearing health program who had maintained effective use of the devices. The participants were invited to participate in the study while waiting for an appointment and signed the consent form. After that, medical records were accessed to collect information about audiological profiles and the fitting/use of hearing aids. Afterward, a protocol with objective questions was orally applied in a silent room. Data were tabulated and subjected to Equality of Two Proportions and Chi-Square statistical tests. Results in both groups, a significant number of users had communication impacted by the use of masks and by social distancing, with difficulty with digital technologies (cell phones/computers) predominating among adults, while older adults more commonly experienced communicative impairments during video calls. The communicative impediment existed regardless of the audiological profile and device use time. When asked if they stopped communicating and if the measures affected their social life, the sample was divided between "yes/sometimes" and "no". As for the emotional impact of protective measures, there was a greater impact among adults. Conclusion protective measures affected the communication of hearing aids users but did not discourage communicative exchanges and social interactions for approximately half of the sample, with the emotional impact being more evident in adults. Such difficulties were not related to the audiological profile and daily use of the devices.

Efeitos do lockdown na incidência da COVID-19 na fase de emergência sanitária da pandemia / Effects of lockdown on COVID-19 incidence in the health emergency phase of the pandemic

RESUMO Objetivo avaliar os efeitos do lockdown na incidência da COVID-19 na fase de emergência sanitária da pandemia. Métodos trata-se de um estudo ecológico transversal. Os dados foram coletados nas páginas da Fundação Sistema Estadual de Análise de Dados e da Prefeitura Municipal de Araraquara. Para analisar a incidência da COVID-19 foram considerados os casos notificados no referido município. Para comparar os períodos em relação aos casos diários, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão com distribuição binomial-negativa com função de ligação logarítmica. Resultados para todas as faixas etárias, com exceção de menores de 20 anos, verificou-se diferença estatística nos coeficientes de incidência. Para o sexo feminino o declínio na incidência da doença foi mais expressivo. Considerando ambos os sexos e todas as faixas etárias, observou-se uma redução de 49% na incidência de casos. Conclusão houve uma redução significativa na incidência da doença considerando a população geral do município. Contribuições para a prática: a disponibilidade e adoção de medidas tradicionais de saúde pública, como o lockdown, mostraram-se essenciais para reduzir casos e óbitos de doenças de vírus respiratórios emergentes sem tratamento e vacina.

ABSTRACT Objective to assess the effects of lockdown on the incidence of COVID-19 during the health emergency phase of the pandemic. Methods this is a cross-sectional ecological study. Data was collected from the websites of the State Data Analysis System Foundation and Araraquara City Hall. To analyze the incidence of COVID-19, cases reported in the municipality were considered. A regression model with a negative binomial distribution and a logarithmic link function was used to compare the periods in terms of daily cases. Results for all age groups except those under 20, there was a statistical difference in the incidence coefficients. For females, the decline in the incidence of the disease was more significant. Considering both sexes and all age groups, there was a 49% reduction in the incidence of cases. Conclusion there was a significant reduction in the incidence of the disease in the general population of the municipality. Contributions to practice: the availability and adoption of traditional public health measures, such as lockdown, proved essential to reducing cases and deaths from emerging respiratory virus diseases without treatment or vaccine.

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disease spread can be affected by pharmaceutical interventions (such as vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as physical distancing, mask-wearing and contact tracing). Understanding the relationship between disease dynamics and human behaviour is a significant factor to controlling infections. In this work, we propose a compartmental epidemiological model for studying how the infection dynamics of COVID-19 evolves for people with different levels of social distancing, natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity. Our model recreates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ontario up to December 2021. Our results indicate that people change their behaviour based on the disease dynamics and mitigation measures. Specifically, they adopt more protective behaviour when mandated social distancing measures are in effect, typically concurrent with a high number of infections. They reduce protective behaviour when vaccination coverage is high or when mandated contact reduction measures are relaxed, typically concurrent with a reduction of infections. We demonstrate that waning of infection and vaccine-induced immunity are important for reproducing disease transmission in autumn 2021.

Adherence to Physical Distancing and Health Beliefs About COVID-19 Among Patients With Cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to validate questionnaires on adherence to physical distancing and health beliefs about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among patients with cancer and explore their interaction with depression or viral anxiety among them. METHODS: Through an online survey, data from 154 cancer patients (female: 82.5%, breast cancer: 66.2%, current cancer treatment, presence: 65.6%) were collected from March to June 2022. The survey gathered responses to questionnaires on adherence to physical distancing, health beliefs about COVID-19, perceived social norms, Stress and Anxiety to Viral Epidemics-6 items, and Patient Health Questionnaire-2. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for construct validity and structural equation model (SEM) were performed. RESULTS: The CFA showed a good model fit for adherence to physical distancing (comparative fit index [CFI] = 1.000, Tucker-Lewis index [TLI] = 0.930, root-mean-square-error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.000, and standardized root-mean-square residual [SRMR] = 0.050) and a satisfactory model fit for health beliefs about COVID-19 (CFI = 0.978, TLI = 0.971, RMSEA = 0.061, and SRMR = 0.089). Through SEM, we found that personal injunctive norms were the main mediators linking health beliefs with physical distancing in patients with cancer. Depression also mediated the effects of viral anxiety and perceived severity on physical distancing (χ² = 20.073, df = 15, P = 0.169; CFI = 0.984; RMSEA = 0.047). CONCLUSION: The questionnaires are reliable and valid. Patients with cancer may be able to adhere to physical distancing by addressing perceived severity, viral anxiety, perceived benefits, self-efficacy, perceived barriers, as well as personal injunctive norms.

Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults.

Background: Infectious disease surveillance systems, which largely rely on diagnosed cases, underestimate the true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, due to under-ascertainment and underreporting. We used repeat serologic testing to measure N-protein seroconversion in a well-characterized cohort of U.S. adults with no serologic evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and characterize risk factors, with comparisons before and after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and variant eras. Methods: We assessed the incidence rate of infection and risk factors in two sub-groups (cohorts) that were SARS-CoV-2 N-protein seronegative at the start of each follow-up period: 1) the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort (n=3,421), followed from April to November 2020; and 2) the vaccine/variant era cohort (n=2,735), followed from November 2020 to June 2022. Both cohorts underwent repeat serologic testing with an assay for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 N protein (Bio-Rad Platelia SARS-CoV-2 total Ab). We estimated crude incidence and sociodemographic/epidemiologic risk factors in both cohorts. We used multivariate Poisson models to compare the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort (referent group) to that in the vaccine/variant era cohort, within strata of vaccination status and epidemiologic risk factors (essential worker status, child in the household, case in the household, social distancing). Findings: In the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort, only 18 of the 3,421 participants (0.53%) had ≥1 vaccine dose by the end of follow-up, compared with 2,497/2,735 (91.3%) in the vaccine/variant era cohort. We observed 323 and 815 seroconversions in the pre-vaccine/wild-type era and the vaccine/variant era and cohorts, respectively, with corresponding incidence rates of 9.6 (95% CI: 8.3-11.5) and 25.7 (95% CI: 24.2-27.3) per 100 person-years. Associations of sociodemographic and epidemiologic risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 incidence were largely similar in the pre-vaccine/wild-type and vaccine/variant era cohorts. However, some new epidemiologic risk factors emerged in the vaccine/variant era cohort, including having a child in the household, and never wearing a mask while using public transit. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR), with the entire pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort as the referent group, showed markedly higher incidence in the vaccine/variant era cohort, but with more vaccine doses associated with lower incidence: aIRRun/undervaccinated=5.3 (95% CI: 4.2-6.7); aIRRprimary series only=5.1 (95% CI: 4.2-7.3); aIRRboosted once=2.5 (95% CI: 2.1-3.0), and aIRRboosted twice=1.65 (95% CI: 1.3-2.1). These associations were essentially unchanged in risk factor-stratified models. Interpretation: In SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative individuals, large increases in incidence and newly emerging epidemiologic risk factors in the vaccine/variant era likely resulted from multiple co-occurring factors, including policy changes, behavior changes, surges in transmission, and changes in SARS-CoV-2 variant properties. While SARS-CoV-2 incidence increased markedly in most groups in the vaccine/variant era, being up to date on vaccines and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as masking and social distancing, remained reliable strategies to mitigate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, even through major surges due to immune evasive variants. Repeat serologic testing in cohort studies is a useful and complementary strategy to characterize SARS-CoV-2 incidence and risk factors.