Predicting cerebellar mutism syndrome in children using lesion map combined with clinical features.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a predictive model for cerebellar mutism syndrome (CMS) in pediatric patients with posterior fossa tumors, integrating lesion-symptom mapping (LSM) data with clinical factors, and to assess the model's performance. METHODS: A cohort of pediatric patients diagnosed with posterior fossa tumors and undergoing surgery at Beijing Children's Hospital from July 2013 to December 2023 was analyzed. Clinical variables gender, age at surgery, tumor characteristics, hydrocephalus, surgical route and pathology were collected. LSM was used to link tumor locations with CMS outcomes. Lasso regression and logistic regression were employed for feature selection and model construction, respectively. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy metrics. RESULTS: The study included 197 patients in total, with CMS rates consistent across training, validation, and prospective groups. Significant associations were found between CMS and gender, tumor type, hydrocephalus, paraventricular edema, surgical route, and pathology. A predictive model combining voxel location data from LSM with clinical factors achieved high predictive performance (C-index: training 0.956, validation 0.933, prospective 0.892). Gender, pathology, and voxel location were identified as key predictors for CMS. CONCLUSION: The study established an effective predictive model for CMS in pediatric posterior fossa tumor patients, leveraging LSM data and clinical factors. The model's accuracy and robustness suggest its potential utility in clinical practice for early CMS risk assessment and intervention planning.

Lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase is a potential tumor suppressor and predictive marker for hepatocellular carcinoma metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer mortality worldwide, and metastasis is the main cause of early recurrence and poor prognosis. However, the mechanism of metastasis remains poorly understood. AIM: To determine the possible mechanism affecting HCC metastasis and provide a possible theoretical basis for HCC treatment. METHODS: The candidate molecule lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT) was screened by gene microarray and bioinformatics analysis. The expression levels of LCAT in clinical cohort samples was detected by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and western blotting. The proliferation, migration, invasion and tumor-forming ability were measured by Cell Counting Kit-8, Transwell cell migration, invasion, and clonal formation assays, respectively. Tumor formation was detected in nude mice after LCAT gene knockdown or overexpression. The immunohistochemistry for Ki67, E-cadherin, N-cadherin, matrix metalloproteinase 9 and vascular endothelial growth factor were performed in liver tissues to assess the effect of LCAT on HCC. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) on various gene signatures were analyzed with GSEA version 3.0. Three machine-learning algorithms (random forest, support vector machine, and logistic regression) were applied to predict HCC metastasis in The Cancer Genome Atlas and GEO databases. RESULTS: LCAT was identified as a novel gene relating to HCC metastasis by using gene microarray in HCC tissues. LCAT was significantly downregulated in HCC tissues, which is correlated with recurrence, metastasis and poor outcome of HCC patients. Functional analysis indicated that LCAT inhibited HCC cell proliferation, migration and invasion both in vitro and in vivo. Clinicopathological data showed that LCAT was negatively associated with HCC size and metastasis (HCC size ≤ 3 cm vs 3-9 cm, P < 0.001; 3-9 cm vs > 9 cm, P < 0.01; metastatic-free HCC vs extrahepatic metastatic HCC, P < 0.05). LCAT suppressed the growth, migration and invasion of HCC cell lines via PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling. Our results indicated that the logistic regression model based on LCAT, TNM stage and the serum level of α-fetoprotein in HCC patients could effectively predict high metastatic risk HCC patients. CONCLUSION: LCAT is downregulated at translational and protein levels in HCC and might inhibit tumor metastasis via attenuating PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling. LCAT is a prognostic marker and potential therapeutic target for HCC.

Utilizing Artificial Neural Networks for Establishing Hearing-Loss Predicting Models Based on a Longitudinal Dataset and Their Implications for Managing the Hearing Conservation Program.

Background: Though the artificial neural network (ANN) technique has been used to predict noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), the established prediction models have primarily relied on cross-sectional datasets, and hence, they may not comprehensively capture the chronic nature of NIHL as a disease linked to long-term noise exposure among workers. Methods: A comprehensive dataset was utilized, encompassing eight-year longitudinal personal hearing threshold levels (HTLs) as well as information on seven personal variables and two environmental variables to establish NIHL predicting models through the ANN technique. Three subdatasets were extracted from the afirementioned comprehensive dataset to assess the advantages of the present study in NIHL predictions. Results: The dataset was gathered from 170 workers employed in a steel-making industry, with a median cumulative noise exposure and HTL of 88.40 dBA-year and 19.58 dB, respectively. Utilizing the longitudinal dataset demonstrated superior prediction capabilities compared to cross-sectional datasets. Incorporating the more comprehensive dataset led to improved NIHL predictions, particularly when considering variables such as noise pattern and use of personal protective equipment. Despite fluctuations observed in the measured HTLs, the ANN predicting models consistently revealed a discernible trend. Conclusions: A consistent correlation was observed between the measured HTLs and the results obtained from the predicting models. However, it is essential to exercise caution when utilizing the model-predicted NIHLs for individual workers due to inherent personal fluctuations in HTLs. Nonetheless, these ANN models can serve as a valuable reference for the industry in effectively managing its hearing conservation program.

A risk score for predicting in-stent restenosis in patients with premature acute myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stent.

Background: This study aimed at developing and validating a risk score to predict in-stent restenosis (ISR) in patients with premature acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stent (DES). Methods: This was a two-center retrospective study. A total of 2185 patients firstly diagnosed with premature AMI (age ≥18 years and <55 years in men, <65 years in women) from Xinjiang cohort were retrospectively analyzed. After filtering by exclusion criteria, patients were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 434) and internal validation cohort (n = 186) at a 7:3 ratio. Several candidate variables associated with ISR in the training cohort were assessed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression analysis. The ISR risk nomogram score based on the superior predictors was finally developed, and then validated in the internal validation cohort and in an independent Chengdu external validation cohort (n = 192). The higher total nomogram score, the greater the ISR risk. Results: The eight variables in the final risk nomogram score, cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) score included age, diabetes mellitus (DM), body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), stent in left anterior descending coronary artery, minimum stent diameter <3 mm. The areas under the curve (AUC) and C-statistics [training cohort: 0.834 (95%CI: 0.787 to 0.882); internal validation cohort: 0.852 (95%CI: 0.784 to 0.921); Chengdu external validation cohort: 0.787 (95%CI: 0.692 to 0.882), respectively)] demonstrated the good discrimination of the CKM score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ2 = 7.86, P = 0.448; χ2 = 5.17, P = 0.740; χ2 = 6.35, P = 0.608, respectively) and the calibration curve confirmed the good calibration of the CKM score. Decision curve analysis (DCA) testified the clinical net benefit of the CKM score in the training and validation cohort. Conclusion: This study provided a well-developed and validated risk nomogram score, the CKM score to predict ISR in patients with premature AMI undergoing PCI with DES. Given that these variables are readily available and practical, the CKM score should be widely adopted for individualized assessment and management of premature AMI.

Association of R-loop binding proteins with prognosis and anti-tumor drug sensitivity in lung adenocarcinoma: a bioinfor-matic study. / RçŽ¯ç»“åˆè›‹ç™½å¯¹è‚ºè ºç™Œæ‚£è€ é¢„åŽçš„é¢„æµ‹åŠè¯ç‰©æ•æ„Ÿæ€§åˆ†æž.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association of R-loop binding proteins with prognosis and chemotherapy efficacy in lung adenocarcinoma. METHODS: The data related to R-loop regulatory genes were obtained from literature of R-loop proteomics and relevant databases. We used 403 cases of lung adenocarcinoma in the Cancer Genome Atlas as training set, and two datasets GSE14814 and GSE31210 in Gene Expression Omnibus as validation sets. The weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was employed to identify R-loop genes with a significant impact on the clinical phenotype of lung adenocarcinoma. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was utilized to eliminate genes exhibiting multicollinearity. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was employed to scrutinize clinical variables and R-loop characteristic genes that exert independent prognostic effects on patient survival. Subsequently, a risk score model was constructed. The predictive capacity of this model for the prognosis of patients was analyzed and validated. Additionally, the performance of risk model on the anti-tumor drug sensitivity was assessed. The mutations of R-loop genes were analyzed by maftools. The effect of PLEC expression on anti-tumor drug sensitivity was tested on non-small cell lung adenocarcinoma H1299 and A549 cells in vitro. RESULTS: A collection of 1551 R-loop genes were obtained, and 78 genes exhibited significant effects on the clinical phenotype shown on WGCNA. The LASSO regression analysis retained fourteen R-loop genes. A multivariate Cox regression analysis further identified three R-loop genes (HEXIM1, GLI2, PLEC) and a clinical variable (tumor grading) that were associated with patient prognosis. Risk prediction model was established according to the regression coefficients of each parameter. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the prognosis of high-risk group was significantly worse than that of low-risk group (P<0.01). The time-dependent ROC curve showed that the risk model had good predictive ability in both training and validation sets. Predictive analyses of anti-neoplastic drug sensitivity indicated a diminished responsiveness to both chemotherapy and targeted treatment drugs among high-risk patients. The expression of PLEC was strongly correlated with sensitivity to gefitinib, a classical EGFR inhibitor. CONCLUSIONS: R-loop binding proteins have been identified as significant determinants in the prognosis and therapeutic strategies for lung adenocarcinoma, which indicates that therapeutic interventions targeting these specific R-loop binding proteins might contribute to a better survival of the patients.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma: A new non-invasive model based on shear wave elastography.

BACKGROUND: Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) predictions. AIM: To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital. The patients were divided into the modeling group (n = 720) and the control group (n = 164). The study included conventional ultrasound, 2D-SWE, and preoperative laboratory tests. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for malignant liver lesions, which were then depicted as nomograms. RESULTS: In the modeling group analysis, maximal elasticity (Emax) of tumors and their peripheries, platelet count, cirrhosis, and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies. These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.81) with 84% sensitivity and 61% specificity. The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts, as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.683 and P = 0.658, respectively). Additionally, the mean elasticity (Emean) of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion (MVI) in malignant liver tumors (P = 0.003). Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count (P = 0.002), Emax of tumors (P = 0.033), Emean of tumors (P = 0.042), Emax at tumor periphery (P < 0.001), and Emean at tumor periphery (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: 2D-SWE's hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions, correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.

Screening optimal candidates with operable, early-stage triple-negative breast cancer benefitting from capecitabine maintenance: A post-hoc analysis of the SYSUCC-001 study.

BACKGROUND: To explore whether specific clinicopathological covariates are predictive for a benefit from capecitabine maintenance in early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in the SYSUCC-001 phase III clinical trial. METHODS: Candidate covariates included age, menstrual status, type of surgery, postoperative chemotherapy regimen, Ki-67 percentage, histologic grade, primary tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, node status, and capecitabine medication. Their nonlinear effects were modeled by restricted cubic spline. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS). A survival prediction model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: All 434 participants (306 in development cohort and 128 in validation cohort) were analyzed. The estimated 5-year DFS in development and validation cohorts were 77.8 % (95 % CI, 72.9%-82.7 %) and 78.2 % (95 % CI, 70.9%-85.5 %), respectively. Age and node status had significant nonlinear effects on DFS. The prediction model constructed using four covariates (node status, lymphovascular invasion, capecitabine maintenance, and age) demonstrated satisfactory calibration and fair discrimination ability, with C-index of 0.722 (95 % CI, 0.662-0.781) and 0.764 (95 % CI, 0.668-0.859) in development and validation cohorts, respectively. Moreover, patient classification was conducted according to their risk scores calculated using our model, in which, notable survival benefits were reported in low-risk subpopulations. An easy-to-use online calculator for predicting benefit of capecitabine maintenance was also designed. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence-based prediction model can be readily assessed at baseline, which might help decision making in clinical practice and optimize patient stratification, especially for those with low-risk, capecitabine maintenance might be a potential strategy in the early-disease setting.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate. AIM: To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: We extracted demographic, etiological, vital sign, laboratory test, comorbidity, complication, treatment, and severity score data of liver cirrhosis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and electronic ICU (eICU) collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Predictor selection and model building were based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The variables selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were further screened through multivariate regression analysis to obtain final predictors. The final predictors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, which was used to construct a nomogram. Finally, we conducted external validation using the eICU-CRD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the models. RESULTS: Risk factors, including the mean respiratory rate, mean systolic blood pressure, mean heart rate, white blood cells, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, age, invasive ventilation, vasopressor use, maximum stage of acute kidney injury, and sequential organ failure assessment score, were included in the multivariate logistic regression. The model achieved AUCs of 0.864 and 0.808 in the MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. The calibration curve also confirmed the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve confirmed its clinical value. CONCLUSION: The nomogram has high accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality. Improving the included predictors may help improve the prognosis of patients.

Development of a risk-predicting score for hip preservation with bone grafting therapy for osteonecrosis.

Identification and differentiation of appropriate indications on hip preserving with bone grafting therapy remains a crucial challenge in the treatment of osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). A prospective cohort study on bone grafting therapy for ONFH aimed to evaluate hip survival rates, and to establish a risk scoring derived from potential risk factors (multivariable model) for hip preservation. Eight variables were identified to be strongly correlated with a decreased rate of hip survival post-therapy, and a comprehensive risk scoring was developed for predicting hip-preservation outcomes. The C-index stood at 0.72, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristics for the risk score's 5- and 10-year hip failure event predictions were 0.74 and 0.72, respectively. This risk score outperforms conventional methods in forecasting hip preservation. Bone grafting shows sustained benefits in treating ONFH when applied under the right indications. Furthermore, the risk scoring proves valuable as a decision-making tool, facilitating risk stratification for ONFH treatments in future.

Risk factors and a nomogram for predicting cognitive frailty in Chinese patients with lung cancer receiving drug therapy: A single-center cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: To identify independent factors of cognitive frailty (CF) and construct a nomogram to predict cognitive frailty risk in patients with lung cancer receiving drug therapy. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, patients with lung cancer undergoing drug therapy from October 2022 to July 2023 were enrolled. The data collected includes general demographic characteristics, clinical data characteristics and assessment of tools for cognitive frailty and other factors. Logistic regression was harnessed to determine the influencing factors, R software was used to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of cognitive frailty. The enhanced bootstrap method was employed for internal verification of the model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using calibration curves, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 372 patients were recruited, with a cognitive frailty prevalence of 56.2%. Age, education background, diabetes mellitus, insomnia, sarcopenia, and nutrition status were identified as independent factors. Then, a nomogram model was constructed and patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups with a cutoff value of 0.552. The internal validation results revealed good concordance, calibration and discrimination. The decision curve analysis presented prominent clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of cognitive frailty was higher in lung cancer patients receiving drug therapy. The nomogram could identify the risk of cognitive frailty intuitively and simply in patients with lung cancer, so as to provide references for early screening and intervention for cognitive frailty at the early phases of drug treatment.

Prediction of liver metastasis and recommended optimal follow-up nursing in rectal cancer.

We aimed to analyze and investigate the clinical factors that influence the occurrence of liver metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer patients, with an attempt to assist patients in devising the optimal imaging-based follow-up nursing. Between June 2011 and May 2021, patients with rectal cancer at our hospital were retrospectively analyzed. A random survival forest model was developed to predict the probability of liver metastasis and provide a practical risk-based approach to surveillance. The results indicated that age, perineural invasion, and tumor deposit were significant factors associated with the liver metastasis and survival. The liver metastasis risk of the low-risk group was higher at 6-21 months, with a peak occurrence time in the 15th month. The liver metastasis risk of the high-risk group was higher at 0-24 months, with a peak occurrence time in the 8th month. In general, our clinical model could predict liver metastasis in rectal cancer patients. It provides a visualization tool that can aid physicians and nurses in making clinical decisions, by detecting the probability of liver metastasis.

Does cleavage stage morphology increase the discriminatory power of prediction in blastocyst transfer outcome?

PURPOSE: To evaluate the contribution of the cleavage stage morphological parameters to the prediction of blastocyst transfer outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 8383 single-blastocyst transfer cycles including 2246 fresh and 6137 vitrified-warmed cycles. XGboost, LASSO, and GLM algorithms were employed to establish models for assessing the predictive value of the cleavage stage morphological parameters in transfer outcomes. Four models were developed using each algorithm: all-in model with or without day 3 morphology and embryo quality-only model with or without day 3 morphology. RESULTS: The live birth rate was 48.04% in the overall cohort. The AUCs of the models with the algorithm of XGboost were 0.83, 0.82, 0.63, and 0.60; with LASSO were 0.66, 0.66, 0.61, and 0.60; and with GLM were 0.66, 0.66, 0.61, and 0.60 respectively. In models 1 and 2, female age, basal FSH, peak E2, endometrial thickness, and female BMI were the top five critical features for predicting live birth; In models 3 and 4, the most crucial factor was blastocyst formation on D5 rather than D6. In model 3, incorporating cleavage stage morphology, including early cleavage, D3 cell number, and fragmentation, was significantly associated with successful live birth. Additionally, the live birth rates for blastocysts derived from on-time, slow, and fast D3 embryos were 49.7%, 39.5%, and 52%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The value of cleavage stage morphological parameters in predicting the live birth outcome of single blastocyst transfer is limited.

Establishment of risk prediction model for postoperative liver injury after non-liver surgery based on different machine learning algorithms / 陆军军医大学学报

Objective To construct a machine learning prediction model for postoperative liver injury in patients with non-liver surgery based on preoperative and intraoperative medication indicators.Methods A case-control study was conducted on 315 patients with liver injury after non-liver surgery selected from the databases developed by 3 large general hospitals from January 2014 to September 2022.With the positive/negative ratio of 1 ∶3,928 cases in corresponding period with non-liver surgery and without liver injury were randomly matched as negative control cases.These 1243 patients were randomly divided into the modeling group(n=869)and the validation group(n=374)in a ratio of 7∶3 using the R language setting code.Preoperative clinical indicators(basic information,medical history,relevant scale score,surgical information and results of laboratory tests)and intraoperative medication were used to construct the prediction model for liver injury after non-liver surgery based on 4 machine learning algorithms,k-nearest neighbor(KNN),support vector machine linear(SVM),logic regression(LR)and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost).In the validation group,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,precision-recall curve(P-R),decision curve analysis(DCA)curve,Kappa value,sensitivity,specificity,Brier score,and F1 score were applied to evaluate the efficacy of model.Results The model established by 4 machine learning algorithms to predict postoperative liver injury after non-liver surgery was optimal using the XGBoost algorithm.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC)was 0.916(95%CI:0.883～0.949),area under the precision-recall curve(AUPRC)was 0.841,Brier score was 0.097,and sensitivity and specificity was 78.95%and 87.10%,respectively.Conclusion The postoperative liver injury prediction model for non-liver surgery based on the XGBoost algorithm has effective prediction for the occurrence of postoperative liver injury.

Investigation of critical factors influencing the underestimation of hearing loss predicted by the ISO 1999 predicting model.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze factors influencing the underestimation of noise-induced permanent threshold shift (NIPTS) among manufacturing workers, providing baseline data for revising noise exposure standard. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was designed with 2702 noise-exposed workers from 35 enterprises from 10 industries. Personal noise exposure level(LAeq,8h) and noise kurtosis level were determined by a noise dosimeter. Questionnaires and hearing loss tests were performed for each subject. The predicted NIPTS was calculated using the ISO 1999:2013 model for each participant, and the actual measured NIPTS was corrected for age and sex. The factors influencing the underestimation of NIPTS were investigated. RESULTS: The predicted NIPTS at each test frequency (0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 6kHz) and mean NIPTS at 2, 3, 4, and 6kHz (NIPTS2346) using the ISO 1999:2013 model were significantly lower than their corresponding measured NIPTS, respectively (P < 0.001). The ISO model significantly underestimated the NIPTS2346 by 12.36 dB HL. The multiple linear regression analysis showed that noise exposure level, exposure duration, age, and kurtosis could affect the degree of underestimation of NIPTS2346. The generalized additive model (GAM) with (penalized) spline components showed nonlinear relationships between critical factors (age, exposure duration, noise level, and kurtosis) and the underestimated NIPTS2346.The underestimated NIPTS2346 decreased with an increase in exposure duration (especially over ten years). There was no apparent trend in the underestimated NIPTS2346 with age. The underestimated NIPTS2346 decreased with the increased noise level [especially > 90 dB(A)]. The underestimated NIPTS2346 increased with an increase in noise kurtosis after adjusting for the noise exposure level and exposure duration and ultimately exhibiting a linear regression relationship. CONCLUSIONS: The ISO 1999 predicting model significantly underestimated the noise-induced hearing loss among manufacturing workers. The degree of underestimation became more significant at the noise exposure condition of fewer than ten years, less than 90 dB(A), and higher kurtosis levels. It is necessary to apply kurtosis to adjust the underestimation of hearing loss and consider the applying condition of noise energy metrics when using the ISO predicting model.

Validation and performance of three scoring systems for predicting primary non-function and early allograft failure after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Primary non-function (PNF) and early allograft failure (EAF) after liver transplantation (LT) seriously affect patient outcomes. In clinical practice, effective prognostic tools for early identifying recipients at high risk of PNF and EAF were urgently needed. Recently, the Model for Early Allograft Function (MEAF), PNF score by King's College (King-PNF) and Balance-and-Risk-Lactate (BAR-Lac) score were developed to assess the risks of PNF and EAF. This study aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of these three scores for predicting PNF and EAF. METHODS: A retrospective study included 720 patients with primary LT between January 2015 and December 2020. MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses. RESULTS: Of all 720 patients, 28 (3.9%) developed PNF and 67 (9.3%) developed EAF in 3 months. The overall early allograft dysfunction (EAD) rate was 39.0%. The 3-month patient mortality was 8.6% while 1-year graft-failure-free survival was 89.2%. The median MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were 5.0 (3.5-6.3), -2.1 (-2.6 to -1.2), and 5.0 (2.0-11.0), respectively. For predicting PNF, MEAF and King-PNF scores had excellent area under curves (AUCs) of 0.871 and 0.891, superior to BAR-Lac (AUC = 0.830). The NRI and IDI analyses confirmed that King-PNF score had the best performance in predicting PNF while MEAF served as a better predictor of EAD. The EAF risk curve and 1-year graft-failure-free survival curve showed that King-PNF was superior to MEAF and BAR-Lac scores for stratifying the risk of EAF. CONCLUSIONS: MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac were validated as practical and effective risk assessment tools of PNF. King-PNF score outperformed MEAF and BAR-Lac in predicting PNF and EAF within 6 months. BAR-Lac score had a huge advantage in the prediction for PNF without post-transplant variables. Proper use of these scores will help early identify PNF, standardize grading of EAF and reasonably select clinical endpoints in relative studies.

Predicting the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma downstaging with the use of clinical and radiomics features.

BACKGROUND: Downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) makes it possible for patients beyond the criteria to have the chance of liver transplantation (LT) and improved outcomes. Thus, a procedure to predict the prognosis of the treatment is an urgent requisite. The present study aimed to construct a comprehensive framework with clinical information and radiomics features to accurately predict the prognosis of downstaging treatment. METHODS: Specifically, three-dimensional (3D) tumor segmentation from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) is employed to extract spatial information of the lesions. Then, the radiomics features within the segmented region are calculated. Combining radiomics features and clinical data prompts the development of feature selection to enhance the robustness and generalizability of the model. Finally, we adopt the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to establish a classification model for predicting HCC downstaging outcomes. RESULTS: Herein, a comparative study was conducted on three different models: a radiomics features-based model (R model), a clinical features-based model (C model), and a joint radiomics clinical features-based model (R-C model). The average accuracy of the three models was 0.712, 0.792, and 0.844, and the average area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) of the three models was 0.775, 0.804, and 0.877, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The novel and practical R-C model accurately predicted the downstaging outcomes, which could be utilized to guide the HCC downstaging toward LT treatment.

The development and validation of a nomogram for predicting brain metastases after chemotherapy and radiotherapy in male small cell lung cancer patients with stage III.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this research was to develop a model for brain metastasis (BM) in limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) patients and to help in the early identification of high-risk patients and the selection of individualized therapies. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate logic regression was applied to identify the independent risk factors of BM. A receiver operating curve (ROC) and nomogram for predicting the incidence of BM were then conducted based on the independent risk factors. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical benefit of prediction model. RESULTS: Univariate regression analysis showed that the CCRT, RT dose, PNI, LLR, and dNLR were the significant factors for the incidence of BM. Multivariate analysis showed that CCRT, RT dose, and PNI were independent risk factors of BM and were included in the nomogram model. The ROC curves revealed the area under the ROC (AUC) of the model was 0.764 (95% CI, 0.658-0.869), which was much higher than individual variable alone. The calibration curve revealed favorable consistency between the observed probability and predicted probability for BM in LS-SCLC patients. Finally, the DCA demonstrated that the nomogram provides a satisfactory positive net benefit across the majority of threshold probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: In general, we established and verified a nomogram model that combines clinical variables and nutritional index characteristics to predict the incidence of BM in male SCLC patients with stage III. Since the model has high reliability and clinical applicability, it can provide clinicians with theoretical guidance and treatment strategy making.

Identification of inflammatory factor-related genes associated with the prognosis and immune cell infiltration in colorectal cancer patients.

This study aims to identify the inflammatory factor-related genes which help to predict the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer. GSEA (Gene Set Enrichment Analysis) was used to acquire inflammation-related genes and the corresponding expression information was collected from TCGA database to determine the DEGs (differentially-expressed genes) in CRC patients. We conducted enrichment analysis and PPI (protein-protein interaction) of these DEGs. Besides, key genes that are both differentially-expressed and prognosis-related were screened out, which were used to establish the prognostic model. We obtained 79 DEGs and 19 prognostic genes, 10 prognostic-related differential genes were eventually screened. These genes were used to construct the prognostic model. We also identified that the immune infiltration score of macrophages between different risk groups was significantly different and similar distinction was witnessed in immune function score of APC (antigen-presenting cell) co-stimulation and type I IFN (interferon) response.

Development and validation of a scoring system for the prediction of HIV drug resistance in Hubei province, China.

Objective: The present study aimed to build and validate a new nomogram-based scoring system for the prediction of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR). Design and methods: Totally 618 patients with HIV/AIDS were included. The predictive model was created using a retrospective set (N = 427) and internally validated with the remaining cases (N = 191). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out to fit a model using candidate variables selected by Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The predictive model was first presented as a nomogram, then transformed into a simple and convenient scoring system and tested in the internal validation set. Results: The developed scoring system consisted of age (2 points), duration of ART (5 points), treatment adherence (4 points), CD4 T cells (1 point) and HIV viral load (1 point). With a cutoff value of 7.5 points, the AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PLR and NLR values were 0.812, 82.13%, 64.55%, 2.32 and 0.28, respectively, in the training set. The novel scoring system exhibited a favorable diagnostic performance in both the training and validation sets. Conclusion: The novel scoring system can be used for individualized prediction of HIVDR patients. It has satisfactory accuracy and good calibration, which is beneficial for clinical practice.

Development and validation of a patient-specific model to predict postoperative SIRS in older patients: A two-center study.

Introduction: Postoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is common in surgical patients especially in older patients, and the geriatric population with SIRS is more susceptible to sepsis, MODS, and even death. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting postoperative SIRS in older patients. Methods: Patients aged ≥65 years who underwent general anesthesia in two centers of Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2015 to September 2020 were included. The cohort was divided into training and validation cohorts. A simple nomogram was developed to predict the postoperative SIRS in the training cohort using two logistic regression models and the brute force algorithm. The discriminative performance of this model was determined by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). The external validity of the nomogram was assessed in the validation cohort. Results: A total of 5,904 patients spanning from January 2015 to December 2019 were enrolled in the training cohort and 1,105 patients from January 2020 to September 2020 comprised the temporal validation cohort, in which incidence rates of postoperative SIRS were 24.6 and 20.2%, respectively. Six feature variables were identified as valuable predictors to construct the nomogram, with high AUCs (0.800 [0.787, 0.813] and 0.822 [0.790, 0.854]) and relatively balanced sensitivity (0.718 and 0.739) as well as specificity (0.718 and 0.729) in both training and validation cohorts. An online risk calculator was established for clinical application. Conclusion: We developed a patient-specific model that may assist in predicting postoperative SIRS among the aged patients.