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Background and objectives: The purpose of this research was to develop and validate the first prognostic nomograms for 3-, 5-, and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with locally advanced thyroid cancer (LATC) by evaluating independent predictors of prognosis in a population of LATC patients. Methods: Demographics, clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and follow-up of 2396 LATC patients in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database from 2004 to 2015 were retrospectively analyzed and compared with patients with LATC according to staging. We randomized all LATC patients into training and validation groups in a 7:3 ratio. Cox regression analyses helped us to derive independent prognostic factors for LATC patients. According to these results, we established and validated the first prognostic nomograms and risk stratification. Results: In our research, the clinical information of LATC patients was compared and significant differences were found in the relevant variables including CSS and OS (P < 0.05), with CSS of 82.0 % and 49.0 %, and OS of 70.6 % and 40.0 %, respectively. Cox regression analyses showed that age at diagnosis, tumor diameter, presence of DM, extrathyroidal extension sites, histological type, thyroidectomy scope, radiotherapy status, and chronological sequence of radiotherapy and surgery were observably correlated with CSS in LATC patients, and in addition to the above factors, gender, marital status, and chemotherapy status were also observably correlated with OS in LATC patients. The prognostic predictive power of the above factors is visualized by the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. The concordance index of nomograms for CSS and OS were 0.933, 0.925, and 0.926 (CSS), 0.918, 0.909, and 0.906 (OS), respectively, and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, area under curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis curve indicate that the nomograms have good discriminatory ability, accuracy and clinical applicability in both the training and validation groups. Conclusions: In these findings, we drawed a conclusion that there were significant differences in clinical information between patients with T4a and T4b LATC, and we established and validated the first prognostic nomograms and risk stratification of CSS and OS for LATC patients at 3, 5, and 10 years, which will help clinicians to individualize their postoperative treatment and individualized follow-up.
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BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate independent predictors of prognosis in patients with mixed medullary and follicular cell carcinoma (MMFCC) and to establish the novel prognostic nomograms in the academic community for 3-, 5-, and 10 year CSS and OS in patients with MMFCC. METHODS: Demographic information, clinicopathological characteristics, treatment information, and survival status information of 200 patients with MMFCC and 6615 patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) from 2000 to 2020 in the SEER database were retrospectively analyzed. Independent predictors of prognosis in MMFCC patients were derived using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses after relevant comparisons based on pathologic typing. On this basis, we developed and validated clinical prognostic nomograms and risk-stratified the patient population. RESULTS: In this study, the clinical information of 200 patients with MMFCC was compared with that of 5947 patients with MTC (NOS) and 668 patients with MTC with amyloid stroma, and there was a significant difference in the relevant variables among the three, with the CSS being 88.5%, 87.5%, and 90.9%, and the OS being 76.5%, 75.4%, and 83.8%. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses yielded that age at diagnosis, presence of distant metastases, thyroidectomy scope, and lymph node dissection status were significantly correlated with the prognosis of patients (P < 0.05), and were independent predictors of CSS and OS for patients with MMFCC, and the Kaplan-Meier survival curves plotted by these factors demonstrated their predictive power for the prognosis of patients with MMFCC. The concordance index of the prognostic nomograms of CSS and OS established on this basis was 0.838 and 0.794, respectively, and the time-dependent area under curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis curve showed that the model had good discriminative ability, accuracy, and clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we concluded that there are large differences between MMFCC and MTC in terms of demographic information, clinicopathological characteristics, treatment information, and survival status information, and we constructed the novel prognostic nomograms for 3-, 5-, and 10 year CSS and OS for patients with MMFCC with risk stratification, which will help clinicians to develop individualized protocols for their postoperative treatments and follow-ups.