Trends and projections of mild and moderate hearing loss among adolescents, young adults, middle-aged adults and age-standardised population in Malaysia from 1996 to 2030.

PURPOSE: This study aims to assess the prevalence of mild and moderate hearing loss spanning three decades, from 1990 to 2019, and to project the anticipated trends from 2020 to 2030 among adolescents, young adults, middle-aged adults, and age-standardised groups in Malaysia. METHODS: This study involved secondary data analysis of mild and moderate hearing loss prevalence over 30 years among the Malaysian population aged 15-19, 25-29, 35-39, 45-49, and age-standardised groups. Subsequently, three time-series models were evaluated and the best models with the minimal Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were selected for projecting the prevalence of hearing loss until 2030. RESULTS: A relatively stable trend of mild hearing loss prevalence and gradual decline of moderate hearing loss were observed across all age groups throughout the study period. The prevalence of mild hearing loss was consistently higher than moderate hearing loss across all age groups, with its prevalence increasing with age. The projected prevalence of hearing loss exhibits a gradual declining trend in the future for all age groups, except for mild hearing loss for the 15-19-year-old group. CONCLUSION: Over the past 30 years, there has been a relatively stable and slightly declining trend in the prevalence of mild and moderate hearing loss among the Malaysian population, respectively with projections showing a slow reduction in the future. These findings highlighted the need for identifying the best intervention and vulnerable age groups, directing increased resources and prioritization towards them.

Identification of a Hippocampus-to-Zona Incerta Projection involved in Motor Learning.

Motor learning (ML), which plays a fundamental role in growth and physical rehabilitation, involves different stages of learning and memory processes through different brain regions. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie ML are not sufficiently understood. Here, a previously unreported neuronal projection from the dorsal hippocampus (dHPC) to the zona incerta (ZI) involved in the regulation of ML behaviors is identified. Using recombinant adeno-associated virus, the projections to the ZI are surprisingly identified as originating from the dorsal dentate gyrus (DG) and CA1 subregions of the dHPC. Furthermore, projection-specific chemogenetic and optogenetic manipulation reveals that the projections from the dorsal CA1 to the ZI play key roles in the acquisition and consolidation of ML behaviors, whereas the projections from the dorsal DG to the ZI mediate the retrieval/retention of ML behaviors. The results reveal new projections from the dorsal DG and dorsal CA1 to the ZI involved in the regulation of ML and provide insight into the stages over which this regulation occurs.

Comparative basolateral amygdala connectomics reveals dissociable single-neuron projection patterns to frontal cortex in macaques and mice.

Basolateral amygdala (BLA) is a key hub for affect in the brain,1,2,3 and dysfunction within this area contributes to a host of psychiatric disorders.4,5 BLA is extensively and reciprocally interconnected with frontal cortex,6,7,8,9 and some aspects of its function are evolutionarily conserved across rodents, anthropoid primates, and humans.10 Neuron density in BLA is substantially lower in primates compared to murine rodents,11 and frontal cortex (FC) is dramatically expanded in primates, particularly the more anterior granular and dysgranular areas.12,13,14 Yet, how these anatomical differences influence the projection patterns of single BLA neurons to frontal cortex across rodents and primates is unknown. Using a barcoded connectomic approach, we assessed the single BLA neuron connections to frontal cortex in mice and macaques. We found that BLA neurons are more likely to project to multiple distinct parts of FC in mice than in macaques. Further, while single BLA neuron projections to nucleus accumbens were similarly organized in mice and macaques, BLA-FC connections differed substantially. Notably, BLA connections to subcallosal anterior cingulate cortex (scACC) in macaques were least likely to branch to other medial frontal cortex areas compared to perigenual ACC (pgACC). This pattern of connections was reversed in the mouse homologues of these areas, infralimbic and prelimbic cortex (IL and PL), mirroring functional differences between rodents and non-human primates. Taken together, these results indicate that BLA connections to FC are not linearly scaled from mice to macaques and instead the organization of single-neuron BLA connections is distinct between these species.

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

Limited control of microtopography evolution on ground subsidence in polygonal tundra landscapes.

Rapid surface and subsurface changes in the Arctic polygonal tundra landscapes due to the melting of ice wedges, known as thermokarst processes, have significant implications for Arctic ecosystems. However, the integration of thermokarst processes into widely used global climate models for projections poses an important question. Here we use an integrated permafrost thermal hydrology model to explore the decoupled nature of two thermokarst processes - microtopography evolution and ground subsidence - in six Arctic locations. Our study specifically investigates this decoupled nature during the transformation of poorly drained low-centered polygons to well-drained high-centered polygons. Spanning diverse climates in polygonal tundra landscapes under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, our findings reveal small variations in permafrost thaw and ground subsidence rates - 2-10 % and 2-4 %, respectively - with and without the representation of microtopography evolution. This suggests that neglecting surface microtopography and its evolution is unlikely to have significant impacts on permafrost projections, regardless of the climate and location. As a result, we suggest the representation of microtopography in Earth System Models may not be imperative. Disclaimer: Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The role of the Ventral Nucleus of the Trapezoid Body in the auditory prepulse inhibition of the acoustic startle reflex.

Cholinergic signaling is essential to mediate the auditory prepulse inhibition (PPI), an operational measure of sensorimotor gating, that refers to the reduction of the acoustic startle reflex (ASR) when a low-intensity, non-startling acoustic stimulus (the prepulse) is presented just before the onset of the acoustic startle stimulus. The cochlear root neurons (CRNs) are the first cells of the ASR circuit to receive cholinergic inputs from non-olivocochlear neurons of the ventral nucleus of the trapezoid body (VNTB) and subsequently decrease their neuronal activity in response to auditory prepulses. Yet, the contribution of the VNTB-CRNs pathway to the mediation of PPI has not been fully elucidated. In this study, we used the immunotoxin anti-choline acetyltransferase (ChAT)-saporin as well as electrolytic lesions of the medial olivocochlear bundle to selectively eliminate cholinergic VNTB neurons, and then assessed the ASR and PPI paradigms. Retrograde track-tracing experiments were conducted to precisely determine the site of lesioning VNTB neurons projecting to the CRNs. Additionally, the effects of VNTB lesions and the integrity of the auditory pathway were evaluated via auditory brain responses tests, ChAT- and FOS-immunohistochemistry. Consequently, we established three experimental groups: 1) intact control rats (non-lesioned), 2) rats with bilateral lesions of the olivocochlear bundle (OCB-lesioned), and 3) rats with bilateral immunolesions affecting both the olivocochlear bundle and the VNTB (OCB/VNTB-lesioned). All experimental groups underwent ASR and PPI tests at several interstimulus intervals before the lesion and 7, 14, and 21 days after it. Our results show that the ASR amplitude remained unaffected both before and after the lesion across all experimental groups, suggesting that the VNTB does not contribute to the ASR. The%PPI increased across the time points of evaluation in the control and OCB-lesioned groups but not in the OCB/VNTB-lesioned group. At the ISI of 50 ms, the OCB-lesioned group exhibited a significant increase in%PPI (p < 0.01), which did not occur in the OCB/VNTB-lesioned group. Therefore, the ablation of cholinergic non-olivocochlear neurons in the OCB/VNTB-lesioned group suggests that these neurons contribute to the mediation of auditory PPI at the 50 ms ISI through their cholinergic projections to CRNs. Our study strongly reinforces the notion that auditory PPI encompasses a complex mechanism of top-down cholinergic modulation, effectively attenuating the ASR across different interstimulus intervals within multiple pathways.

Intrinsic disruption of white matter microarchitecture in major depressive disorder: A voxel-based meta analysis of diffusion tensor imaging.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a prevalent and disabling mood disorder, thought to be linked with brain white matter (WM) alterations. Prior diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies have reported inconsistent changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) across different brain regions in MDD patients. However, none of these studies utilized raw t-map data for WM meta-analysis in MDD. Our study aims to address this gap by conducting a whole-brain-based meta-analysis of FA in MDD using Seed-based d mapping via permutation of subject images (SDM-PSI), combining reported peak coordinates and raw statistical parametric maps. OBJECTIVES: Following PRISMA guidelines, we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis to compare FA in MDD patients with healthy controls (HC). Our goal was to identify WM abnormalities in MDD, using SDM, which could shed light on the disorder's pathogenesis. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 39 studies with 3696 participants (2094 with MDD, 1602HC). It revealed that MDD patients, in comparison to HC, have lower FA in the corpus callosum (CC) and anterior thalamic projections (ATP). Subgroup analyses indicated that the CC is a more stable pathogenic factor in MDD. Meta-regression analyses showed no linear correlation between the mean age, percentage of female patients, duration of depression, and FA abnormalities. This suggests that WM impairments in interhemispheric connections and anterior thalamocortical circuits are significant in the pathogenesis of MDD.

Estrogen influences the transzonal projection assembly of cumulus-oocyte complexes through G protein-coupled estrogen receptor during goat follicle development.

Estrogen is an important hormone that plays a role in regulating follicle development and oocyte maturation. Transzonal projections (TZPs) act as communication bridges between follicle somatic cells and oocytes, and their dynamic changes are critical for oocyte development and maturation. However, the roles and mechanisms of estrogen in regulating TZPs during follicular development are not yet understood. We found that the proportion of oocytes spontaneously resuming meiosis increases as the follicle grows, which is accompanied by rising estrogen levels in follicles and decreasing TZPs in cumulus-oocyte complex. To further explore the effect of elevated estrogen levels on TZP assembly, additional estrogen was added to the culture system. The increased estrogen level significantly decreased the mRNA and protein expression levels of TZP assembly-related genes. Subsequent research revealed that TZP regulation by estrogen was mediated by the membrane receptor GPER and downstream ERK1/2 signaling pathway. In summary, our study suggests that estrogen may regulate goat oocyte meiosis arrest by decreasing TZP numbers via estrogen-mediated GPER activation during follicle development.

Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design.

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, and value of information) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is a global phenomenon species are experiencing, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes directly depend on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally-explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change and one no-change scenarios, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (λ) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on saguaro's future. KEY RESULTS: We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be differential across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.

Involvement of Pre-limbic Cortex-Nucleus accumbens projections in Context-Induced alcohol seeking.

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) remains a critical public health issue worldwide, characterized by high relapse rates often triggered by contextual cues. This research investigates the neural mechanisms behind context-induced reinstatement of alcohol-seeking behavior, focusing on the nucleus accumbens and its interactions with the prelimbic cortex, employing Male Long-Evans rats in an ABA renewal model. In our experimental setup, rats were trained to self-administer 10 % ethanol in Context A, followed by extinction of lever pressing in the presence of discrete cues in Context B. The context-induced reinstatement of ethanol-seeking was then assessed by re-exposing rats to Context A or B under extinction conditions, aiming to simulate the environmental cues' influence on relapse behaviors. Three experiments were conducted: Experiment 1 utilized Fos-immunohistochemistry to examine neuronal activation in the nucleus accumbens; Experiment 2 applied the baclofen + muscimol inactivation technique to probe the functional importance of the nucleus accumbens core; Experiment 3 used Fos-immunofluorescence along with Retrobeads injection to investigate activation of neurons projecting from the prelimbic cortex to the nucleus accumbens core. Our findings revealed significant increases in Fos-immunoreactive nuclei within the nucleus accumbens core and shell during the reinstatement phase in Context A, underscoring the environment's potent effect on ethanol-seeking behavior. Additionally, inactivation of the nucleus accumbens core markedly reduced reinstatement, and there was a notable activation of neurons from the prelimbic cortex to the nucleus accumbens core in the ethanol-associated context. These results highlight the critical role of the nucleus accumbens core and its corticostriatal projections in the neural circuitry underlying context-driven ethanol seeking.

Narrative as active inference: an integrative account of cognitive and social functions in adaptation.

While the ubiquity and importance of narratives for human adaptation is widely recognized, there is no integrative framework for understanding the roles of narrative in human adaptation. Research has identified several cognitive and social functions of narratives that are conducive to well-being and adaptation as well as to coordinated social practices and enculturation. In this paper, we characterize the cognitive and social functions of narratives in terms of active inference, to support the claim that one of the main adaptive functions of narrative is to generate more useful (i.e., accurate, parsimonious) predictions for the individual, as well as to coordinate group action (over multiple timescales) through shared predictions about collective behavior. Active inference is a theory that depicts the fundamental tendency of living organisms to adapt by proactively inferring the causes of their sensations (including their own actions). We review narrative research on identity, event segmentation, episodic memory, future projections, storytelling practices, enculturation, and master narratives. We show how this research dovetails with the active inference framework and propose an account of the cognitive and social functions of narrative that emphasizes that narratives are for the future-even when they are focused on recollecting or recounting the past. Understanding narratives as cognitive and cultural tools for mutual prediction in social contexts can guide research on narrative in adaptive behavior and psychopathology, based on a parsimonious mechanistic model of some of the basic adaptive functions of narrative.

Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease from 2022 to 2050: Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years.

AIMS: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been a significant public health issue worldwide. This study aims to predict the global burden of IHD in a timely and comprehensive manner. METHODS AND RESULTS: Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for IHD from 1990 to 2021 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database and three models (linear, exponential, and Poisson regression) were used to estimate their trends over time at the global, regional, and national levels by age, sex, and country groups, with the gross domestic product per capita was applied to adjust the model. The model results revealed that the global burden of IHD is expected to increase continuously by 2050. By 2050, global IHD incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs are projected to reach 67.3 million, 510 million, 16 million, and 302 million, respectively, which represents an increase of 116%, 106%, 80%, and 62% from 2021. Moreover, the results showed that regions with lower socio-demographic index (SDI) bore a greater burden of IHD than those with higher SDI, with men having a higher burden of IHD than women. People over 70 years old account for a major part of the burden of IHD, and premature death of IHD is also becoming more serious. CONCLUSION: The global burden of IHD will increase further by 2050, potentially due to population aging and economic disparities. Hence, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention of IHD and formulate targeted strategies according to different SDI regions and special populations.

Future patterns in burden and incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in the United States, 2001-2035.

Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching ∼2700 among men and ∼7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was ∼2150 and ∼4600), with most cases aged ≥65 years (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100,000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3, in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, 3.4 in 2016-2020) and women (11.2, 12.6, 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, 5.2 in 2016-2020). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.

From bristle to brain: embryonic development of topographic projections from basiconic sensilla in the antennal nervous system of the locust Schistocerca gregaria.

The antennal flagellum of the locust S. gregaria is an articulated structure bearing a spectrum of sensilla that responds to sensory stimuli. In this study, we focus on the basiconic-type bristles as a model for sensory system development in the antenna. At the end of embryogenesis, these bristles are found at fixed locations and then on only the most distal six articulations of the antenna. They are innervated by a dendrite from a sensory cell cluster in the underlying epithelium, with each cluster directing fused axons topographically to an antennal tract running to the brain. We employ confocal imaging and immunolabeling to (a) identify mitotically active sense organ precursors for sensory cell clusters in the most distal annuli of the early embryonic antenna; (b) observe the subsequent spatial appearance of their neuronal progeny; and (c) map the spatial and temporal organization of axon projections from such clusters into the antennal tracts. We show that early in embryogenesis, proliferative precursors are localized circumferentially within discrete epithelial domains of the flagellum. Progeny first appear distally at the antennal tip and then sequentially in a proximal direction so that sensory neuron populations are distributed in an age-dependent manner along the antenna. Autotracing reveals that axon fasciculation with a tract is also sequential and reflects the location and age of the cell cluster along the most distal annuli. Cell cluster location and bristle location are therefore represented topographically and temporally within the axon profile of the tract and its projection to the brain.

Cell type-specific and frequency-dependent centrifugal modulation in olfactory bulb output neurons in vivo.

Mitral/tufted cells (M/TCs) form complex local circuits with interneurons in the olfactory bulb and are powerfully inhibited by these interneurons. The horizontal limb of the diagonal band of Broca (HDB), the only GABAergic/inhibitory source of centrifugal circuit with the olfactory bulb, is known to target olfactory bulb interneurons, and we have shown targeting also to olfactory bulb glutamatergic neurons in vitro. However, the net efficacy of these circuits under different patterns of activation in vivo and the relative balance between the various targeted intact local and centrifugal circuits was the focus of this study. Here channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2) was expressed in HDB GABAergic neurons to investigate the short-term plasticity of HDB-activated disinhibitory rebound excitation of M/TCs. Optical activation of HDB interneurons increased spontaneous M/TC firing without odor presentation and increased odor-evoked M/TC firing. HDB activation induced disinhibitory rebound excitation (burst or cluster of spiking) in all classes of M/TCs. This excitation was frequency dependent, with short-term facilitation only at higher HDB stimulation frequency (5 Hz and above). However, frequency-dependent HDB regulation was more potent in the deeper layer M/TCs compared with more superficial layer M/TCs. In all neural circuits the balance between inhibition and excitation in local and centrifugal circuits plays a critical functional role, and this patterned input-dependent regulation of inhibitory centrifugal inputs to the olfactory bulb may help maintain the precise balance across the populations of output neurons in different environmental odors, putatively to sharpen the enhancement of tuning specificity of individual or classes of M/TCs to odors.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Neuronal local circuits in the olfactory bulb are modulated by centrifugal long circuits. In vivo study here shows that inhibitory horizontal limb of the diagonal band of Broca (HDB) modulates all five types of mitral/tufted cells (M/TCs), by direct inhibitory circuits HDB → M/TCs and indirect disinhibitory long circuits HDB → interneurons → M/TCs. The HDB net effect exerts excitation in all types of M/TCs but more powerful in deeper layer output neurons as HDB activation frequency increases, which may sharpen the tuning specificity of classes of M/TCs to odors during sensory processing.

Spatially explicit downscaling and projection of population in mainland China.

Spatially explicit population data is critical to investigating human-nature interactions, identifying at-risk populations, and informing sustainable management and policy decisions. Most long-term global population data have three main limitations: 1) they were estimated with simple scaling or trend extrapolation methods which are not able to capture detailed population variation spatially and temporally; 2) the rate of urbanization and the spatial patterns of settlement changes were not fully considered; and 3) the spatial resolution is generally coarse. To address these limitations, we proposed a framework for large-scale spatially explicit downscaling of populations from census data and projecting future population distributions under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios with the consideration of distinctive changes in urban extent. We downscaled urban and rural population separately and considered urban spatial sprawl in downscaling and projection. Treating urban and rural populations as distinct but interconnected entities, we constructed a random forest model to downscale historical populations and designed a gravity-based population potential model to project future population changes at the grid level. This work built a new capacity for understanding spatially explicit demographic change with a combination of temporal, spatial, and SSP scenario dimensions, paving the way for cross-disciplinary studies on long-term socio-environmental interactions.

SMAD4 promotes somatic-germline contact during murine oocyte growth.

Development of the mammalian oocyte requires physical contact with the surrounding granulosa cells of the follicle, which provide it with essential nutrients and regulatory signals. This contact is achieved through specialized filopodia, termed transzonal projections (TZPs), that extend from the granulosa cells to the oocyte surface. Transforming growth factor (TGFß) family ligands produced by the oocyte increase the number of TZPs, but how they do so is unknown. Using an inducible Cre recombinase strategy together with expression of green fluorescent protein to verify Cre activity in individual cells, we examined the effect of depleting the canonical TGFß mediator, SMAD4, in mouse granulosa cells. We observed a 20-50% decrease in the total number of TZPs in SMAD4-depleted granulosa cell-oocyte complexes, and a 50% decrease in the number of newly generated TZPs when the granulosa cells were reaggregated with wild-type oocytes. Three-dimensional image analysis revealed that TZPs of SMAD4-depleted cells were longer than controls and more frequently oriented towards the oocyte. Strikingly, the transmembrane proteins, N-cadherin and Notch2, were reduced by 50% in SMAD4-depleted cells. SMAD4 may thus modulate a network of cell adhesion proteins that stabilize the attachment of TZPs to the oocyte, thereby amplifying signalling between the two cell types.

Projections of the start of the airborne pollen season in Barcelona (NE Iberian Peninsula) over the 21st century.

The effects of global warming are numerous and recent studies reveal that they can affect the timing of pollination. Temperature is the meteorological variable that presents a clearer relationship with the start of the pollination season of most of the observed airborne pollen taxa. In Catalonia, in the last fifty years, the average annual air temperature has increased by +0.23 °C/decade, and the local warming has been slightly higher than the one on a global scale. Projections point to an increase in temperature in the coming decades, which would be more marked towards the middle of the century. To analyse the effect of the increase in temperature due to global warming on the starting date of pollen season in Barcelona, a forecasting model has been applied to a set of projected future temperatures estimated by the European RESCCUE project. This model, largely used in the literature, is based on determining the thermal needs of the plant for the pollen season to begin. The model calibration to obtain the initial parameters has been made by using 20 years of pollen data (2000-2019), and the model effectiveness has subsequently been tested through an internal evaluation over the period of the calibration and an external evaluation on 4 years not included in the calibration (2020-2023). The mean bias error in the internal calibration ranged between -0.4 and - 0.6 days, and between +0.5 and - 8.3 in the external one, depending on the taxon. The results of the application of the model to the temperature projections over the 21st century point to a progressive advancement in the pollination dates of several pollen types abundant in the city, allergenic most of them. These advances ranged, at the end of the century, between 15 and 27 days, depending on the climate model, for the scenario of the highest concentrations (RCP8.5) and between 7 and 12 days for the emissions stabilization scenario (RCP4.5).