The Association of Socio-Environmental Inequality and Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Major Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Environmental hazards may influence health outcomes and be a driver of health inequalities. We sought to characterize the extent to which social-environmental inequalities were associated with surgical outcomes following a complex operation. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, patients who underwent abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, coronary artery bypass grafting, colectomy, pneumonectomy, or pancreatectomy between 2016 and 2021 were identified from Medicare claims data. Patient data were linked with social-environmental data sourced from Centers for Disease Control and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry data based on county of residence. The Environmental Justice Index social-environmental ranking (SER) was used as a measure of environmental injustice. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between SER and surgical outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1,052,040 Medicare beneficiaries, 346,410 (32.9%) individuals lived in counties with low SER, while 357,564 (33.9%) lived in counties with high SER. Patients experiencing greater social-environmental injustice were less likely to achieve textbook outcome (odds ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.94-0.96, P < 0.001) and to be discharged to an intermediate care facility or home with a health agency (odds ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.96-0.98, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative social and environmental inequalities, as captured by the Environmental Justice Index SER, were associated with postoperative outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries undergoing a range of surgical procedures. Policy makers should focus on environmental, as well as socioeconomic injustice to address preventable health disparities.

Natural and socio-environmental factors in the transmission of COVID-19: a comprehensive analysis of epidemiology and mechanisms.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: There are significant differences in the transmission rate and mortality rate of COVID-19 under environmental conditions such as seasons and climates. However, the impact of environmental factors on the role of the COVID-19 pandemic and the transmission mechanism of the SARS-CoV-2 is unclear. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 can provide innovative insights for global epidemic prevention and control policies and COVID-19 related research. This review summarizes the evidence of the impact of different natural and social environmental factors on the transmission of COVID-19 through a comprehensive analysis of epidemiology and mechanism research. This will provide innovative inspiration for global epidemic prevention and control policies and provide reference for similar infectious diseases that may emerge in the future. RECENT FINDINGS: Evidence reveals mechanisms by which natural environmental factors influence the transmission of COVID-19, including (i) virus survival and transport, (ii) immune system damage, (iii) inflammation, oxidative stress, and cell death, and (iiii) increasing risk of complications. All of these measures appear to be effective in controlling the spread or mortality of COVID-19: (1) reducing air pollution levels, (2) rational use of ozone disinfection and medical ozone therapy, (3) rational exposure to sunlight, (4) scientific ventilation and maintenance of indoor temperature and humidity, (5) control of population density, and (6) control of population movement. Our review indicates that with the continuous mutation of SARS-CoV-2, high temperature, high humidity, low air pollution levels, and low population density more likely to slow down the spread of the virus.

Syndemic Theory and Its Use in Developing Health Interventions and Programming: A Scoping Review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The central tenet of syndemics theory is that disease interactions are driven by social factors, and that these factors have to be understood in order to reduce the health burdens of local populations. Without an understanding of the theory and how it is being put into practice, there is a strong possibility of losing the potential for syndemic theory to positively impact change at community and individual level. METHODS: Following an initial database search that produced 921 articles, we developed a multi-stage scoping review process identifying invention studies that employ syndemic theory. Inclusion was defined as the presence of healthcare interventions examining multiple social-biological outcomes, refering to a specific (local) at risk population, developing or attempting to develop interventions impacting upon multiple health and/or social targets, and explicit employment of syndemic theory in developing the intervention. RESULTS: A total of 45 articles contained a substantial engagement with syndemic theory and an original healthcare intervention. However, only eleven studies out of all 921 articles met the inclusion criteria. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: It is strongly suggested that when employing syndemic theory researchers focus close attention to demonstrating disease interactions, providing evidence of the social drivers of these disease interactions, and constructing interventions grounded in these analytical findings. We conclude that although frequently referred to, syndemic theory is rarely employed in its entirety and recommend that interventions be developed using a more thorough grounding in this important and powerful theory.

Comorbid ADHD and Pediatric Sickle Cell Disease: Prevalence and Risk Factors.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a genetic blood condition that places youth at increased risk for deficits in complex attention suggestive of increased risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). We used systematic screening to assess the prevalence of ADHD in a clinic-based sample of youth with SCD and explored factors related to ADHD. Caregivers of 107 children with SCD (ages 7-11 years) completed routine psychosocial screening which included inattentive symptoms of ADHD. Follow-up diagnostic procedures were completed for patients with elevated inattentive symptoms to assess for ADHD diagnoses. Biomedical and social-environmental variables were examined from the screening and medical records. Twenty-six percent of patients showed elevated inattentive symptoms with 13% meeting diagnostic criteria for ADHD diagnoses. Most children (75%) who met criteria for ADHD had not been previously diagnosed. Disease severity did not predict inattentive symptoms or ADHD diagnoses, though a measure of chronic inflammation was associated with ADHD. Family functioning was related to elevated inattentive symptoms but not ADHD diagnoses. Children with SCD show relatively high rates of ADHD with many cases not detected through routine care. Screening for ADHD as part of hematology care may be a feasible strategy to improve identification and access to intervention.

Scenario analysis of COVID-19 dynamical variations by different social environmental factors: a case study in Xinjiang.

Background: With the rapid advancement of the One Health approach, the transmission of human infectious diseases is generally related to environmental and animal health. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been largely impacted by environmental factors regionally and globally and has significantly disrupted human society, especially in low-income regions that border many countries. However, few research studies have explored the impact of environmental factors on disease transmission in these regions. Methods: We used the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as the study area to investigate the impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 variation using a dynamic disease model. Given the special control and prevention strategies against COVID-19 in Xinjiang, the focus was on social and environmental factors, including population mobility, quarantine rates, and return rates. The model performance was evaluated using the statistical metrics of correlation coefficient (CC), normalized absolute error (NAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and distance between the simulation and observation (DISO) indices. Scenario analyses of COVID-19 in Xinjiang encompassed three aspects: different population mobilities, quarantine rates, and return rates. Results: The results suggest that the established dynamic disease model can accurately simulate and predict COVID-19 variations with high accuracy. This model had a CC value of 0.96 and a DISO value of less than 0.35. According to the scenario analysis results, population mobilities have a large impact on COVID-19 variations, with quarantine rates having a stronger impact than return rates. Conclusion: These results provide scientific insight into the control and prevention of COVID-19 in Xinjiang, considering the influence of social and environmental factors on COVID-19 variation. The control and prevention strategies for COVID-19 examined in this study may also be useful for the control of other infectious diseases, especially in low-income regions that are bordered by many countries.

Social Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates: A Time-Constrained Multiple Mediation Analysis.

Objective To estimate the multiple direct/indirect effects of social, environmental, and economic factors on COVID-19 vaccination rates (series complete) in the 3109 continental counties in the United States (U.S.). Study design  The dependent variable was the COVID-19 vaccination rates in the U.S. (April 15, 2022). Independent variables were collected from reliable secondary data sources, including the Census and CDC. Independent variables measured at two different time frames were utilized to predict vaccination rates. The number of vaccination sites in a given county was calculated using the geographic information system (GIS) packages as of April 9, 2022. The Internet Archive (Way Back Machine) was used to look up data for historical dates. Methods  A chain of temporally-constrained least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regressions was used to identify direct and indirect effects on vaccination rates. The first regression identified direct predictors of vaccination rates. Next, the direct predictors were set as response variables in subsequent regressions and regressed on variables that occurred before them. These regressions identified additional indirect predictors of vaccination. Finally, both direct and indirect variables were included in a network model. Results  Fifteen variables directly predicted vaccination rates and explained 43% of the variation in vaccination rates in April 2022. In addition, 11 variables indirectly affected vaccination rates, and their influence on vaccination was mediated by direct factors. For example, children in poverty rate mediated the effect of (a) median household income, (b) children in single-parent homes, and (c) income inequality. For another example, median household income mediated the effect of (a) the percentage of residents under the age of 18, (b) the percentage of residents who are Asian, (c) home ownership, and (d) traffic volume in the prior year. Our findings describe not only the direct but also the indirect effect of variables. Conclusions  A diverse set of demographics, social determinants, public health status, and provider characteristics predicted vaccination rates. Vaccination rates change systematically and are affected by the demographic composition and social determinants of illness within the county. One of the merits of our study is that it shows how the direct predictors of vaccination rates could be mediators of the effects of other variables.

Problematic use of social media: The influence of social environmental forces and the mediating role of copresence.

People's dependence on technology in the digital environment has increasingly become the focus of academic and social attention. Social media, in particular, with the functions of connecting with others and maintaining interactions, has become an inseparable part of people's lives. Although the formation of problematic use of social media has been extensively discussed by scholars, it is mainly confined to the individual level and lacks a macro perspective from the external environment. This study draws on the perspective of institutional theory and introduces copresence as a mediating role, aiming to investigate the influence mechanism of social environmental forces on individuals' problematic use of social media. An online survey (N = 462) was conducted to collect data and test the research model. Our data were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Results show that social environmental forces exert an impact on problematic use of social media through the sense of copresence, and only mimetic force can directly affect behavior outcomes while the other two forces can not. Besides, social environmental forces have a relationship with people's sense of copresence while using social media. Among them, mimetic force and normative force positively correlate with copresence while coercive force is negatively related to copresence. Furthermore, copresence is found to influence problematic use of social media positively. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

Socioexposomics of COVID-19 across New Jersey: a comparison of geostatistical and machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in adverse COVID-19 health outcomes have been associated with multiple social and environmental stressors. However, research is needed to evaluate the consistency and efficiency of methods for studying these associations at local scales. OBJECTIVE: To assess socioexposomic associations with COVID-19 outcomes across New Jersey and evaluate consistency of findings from multiple modeling approaches. METHODS: We retrieved data for COVID-19 cases and deaths for the 565 municipalities of New Jersey up to the end of the first phase of the pandemic, and calculated mortality rates with and without long-term-care (LTC) facility deaths. We considered 84 spatially heterogeneous environmental, demographic and socioeconomic factors from publicly available databases, including air pollution, proximity to industrial sites/facilities, transportation-related noise, occupation and commuting, neighborhood and housing characteristics, age structure, racial/ethnic composition, poverty, etc. Six geostatistical models (Poisson/Negative-Binomial regression, Poison/Negative-Binomial mixed effect model, Poisson/Negative-Binomial Bersag-York-Mollie spatial model) and two Machine Learning (ML) methods (Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting) were implemented to assess association patterns. The Shapley effects plot was established for explainable ML and change of support validation was introduced to compare performances of different approaches. RESULTS: We found robust positive associations of COVID-19 mortality with historic exposures to NO2, population density, percentage of minority and below high school education, and other social and environmental factors. Exclusion of LTC deaths does not significantly affect correlations for most factors but findings can be substantially influenced by model structures and assumptions. The best performing geostatistical models involved flexible structures representing data variations. ML methods captured association patterns consistent with the best performing geostatistical models, and furthermore detected consistent nonlinear associations not captured by geostatistical models. SIGNIFICANCE: The findings of this work improve the understanding of how social and environmental disparities impacted COVID-19 outcomes across New Jersey.

Functional Limitations among European Older Adults: Cross-Country Differences in Health Improvements and Social Environment Influence.

This study explores differences on health status transitions based on functional health and dead records among older population in Europe. We also study the influence of residence pattern on health changes over time. METHOD: Data used came from EU-SILC registers on individuals aged 50 + from 19 countries. Fixed and Mixed effect Cox Proportional Hazards Models are used to ascertain any country differences on health outcomes and then by co-residence pattern. RESULTS: There are remarkable country heterogeneity among older people to experience changes on their health status, specially, for health improvements and mortality risk. As expected, Baltic and Eastern European countries have a higher propensity for health deterioration and Southern European countries for health improvements on their functional capacities. However, there are exceptions as Bulgaria and Romania, which have a lower risk of deterioration and death transition than average. Overall, living with partner and adult children-rather than living only with a couple shown positive effects for older European to experience health improvements with notably differences in Southern countries as in Italy and Spain. DISCUSSION: country framework differences play a fundamental role to understand changes on health status at older ages, in particular, how health care support toward older people is managed by health systems within European countries and the availability of close relatives among older adult population.

The association of FKBP5 gene methylation, adolescents' sex, and depressive symptoms among Chinese adolescents: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms among adolescents are a serious health concern around the world. Altered DNA methylation in the FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5) gene has been reported to regulate stress response, which has been reported to be closely associated with depressive symptoms. However, most of the contributing studies have been conducted among adults and relatively few studies have considered the effect of disparate social influences and sex differences on the DNA methylation of FKBP5 in persons with depressive symptoms. The present study aimed to test the associations of FKBP5 DNA methylation and depressive symptoms among adolescents and explore possible sex differences in the foregoing associations. METHODS: This study was conducted using a nested case-control design within a longitudinal cohort study from January 2019 to December 2019. Adolescents aged 12 to 17 years from 69 classes in 10 public high schools located in Guangdong province of China participated in this research. Students with persistent depressive symptoms that reported having depressive symptoms at both baseline and follow-up were treated as the case group, and those without depressive symptoms were randomly selected as the control group. Our study finally included 87 cases and 151 controls. Quantitative methylation analyses of the selected gene were carried out by MassARRAY platform System. RESULTS: The overall DNA methylation trend of FKBP5 CpG sites in the case group was lower in comparison to the control group. Compared to healthy controls, lower methylation percentage of FKBP5-12 CpG 1 was observed in adolescents with persistent depressive symptoms after adjusting for covariates (case: 0.94 ± 2.00, control: 0.47 ± 0.92; F = 5.41, P = 0.021), although the statistical significance of the difference was lost after false discovery rate correction (q > 0.05). In addition, the hypomethylation of FKBP5-12 CpG 1 was approaching significance after adjustment for social-environmental factors (aOR = 0.77; P = 0.055), which indicated that no independent association was detected between hypomethylation of FKBP5 CpG sites and persistent depressive symptoms. Furthermore, in the present study, we were unable to identify sex differences in the association of FKBP5 gene methylation with depressive symptoms. CONCLUSION: The decreased methylation level of FKBP5 was observed in adolescents with persistent depressive symptoms, albeit non-significant after correction for multiple testing. Our results presented here are preliminary and underscore the complex gene-environment interactions relevant to the risk for depressive symptoms.

Insights into the Sustainable Development of the Bioeconomy at the European Level, in the Context of the Desired Clean Environment.

The increasing awareness of the impact of global climate change has brought bio-based projects back into consideration. Thus, having as supports the reality of the troubling scenario that threatens the entire ecosystem and the up-to-date theoretical discourse and debate on sustainable development, this article aims to investigate the socio-economic and institutional determinants that trigger the dynamics of the bioeconomy value added indicator-a valuable instrument developed and recently launched by the EU's BioMonitor project. Using a panel corrected standard errors framework, we find that investment in human development along with innovation, the growing role of women and sound public governance have a positive effect on the transition towards a durable and resilient bioeconomy at the European level. This naturally implies that a combination of social and technological innovation can ensure the rise of a sustainable bioeconomy.

Index of multiple deprivation contributed to common psychiatric disorders: A systematic review and comprehensive analysis.

BACKGROUND: Limited studies have been conducted to explore the interaction effects of social environmental and genetic factors on the risks of common psychiatric disorders. METHODS: 56,613-106,695 individuals were collected from the UK Biobank cohort. Logistic or liner regression models were first used to evaluate the associations of index of multiple deprivation (IMD) with bipolar disorder (BD), depression and anxiety in UK Biobank cohort. Then, for the significant IMD associated with BD, depression and anxiety, genome-wide gene-environment interaction study (GWEIS) was performed by PLINK 2.0. RESULT: Totally, the higher levels of IMD were significantly associated with higher risks of BD, depression and anxiety. For BD, GWEIS identified multiple significant SNPs interacting with IMD, such as rs75182167 for income and rs111841503 for education. For depression and anxiety, GWEIS found significant SNPs interacting with income and education, such as rs147013419 for income and rs142366753 for education. CONCLUSION: Social environmental deprivations contributed to the risks of psychiatric disorders. Besides, we reported multiple candidate genetic loci interacting with IMD, providing novel insights into the biological mechanism.

Longitudinal association of early childhood lead exposure and adolescent heart rate variability: influence of parental education.

Lead exposure has been shown to dysregulate physiological stress responses. However, few studies have investigated the effect of lead exposure on later heart rate variability (HRV), an indicator of a stress response, in large samples of children. Furthermore, the interaction between social environmental factors and lead exposure in childhood, which commonly co-occur, remains understudied. This study examined relationships between childhood lead exposure and early adolescent physiological stress responses at different levels of parental education. Participants were 406 children from Jintan, China. Blood lead levels (BLLs) and parental education data were collected at 3-5 years of age, and HRV outcomes assessed at 12 years via frequency domain measures (LF/HF ratio) collected during an induced stress test. Results show a significant interaction between parental education and BLLs at 3-5 years. This relationship was found to be most consistent for the interaction between BLLs and mother's years of education for both the planning (ß = 0.12, p = 0.046) and speaking (ß = 0.11, p = 0.043) phase of the stress task, suggesting that increasing years of mother's education may enhance the deleterious influence of lead exposure on the HRV frequency measure, LF/HF ratio. This research highlights the complexity in lead exposure induced outcomes.

The Association between Endogenous Hair Steroid Hormones and Social Environmental Factors in a Group of Conscripts during Basic Military Training.

This study aimed to analyse the association between endogenous hair steroid hormones as reliable biological indicators of an individual's stress level and the social environmental factors experienced during military training that are manifested at the beginning of compulsory military service. Hair steroid hormone concentrations-cortisol, cortisone, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), and testosterone-in a group of 185 conscripts were measured using the ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. Six subjective social environmental factors in the military-attitude towards the military and military service, adaptation to the military environment, team, task, and norm cohesion, as well as psychological (un)safety in the group-were evaluated using military-specific research questionnaires. Weak but significant negative correlations were identified between cortisol and adaptation (r = -0.176, p < 0.05), attitude (r = -0.147, p < 0.05) as well as between testosterone and task cohesion (r = -0.230, p < 0.01) levels. Additionally, a multiple forward stepwise regression analysis highlighted that cortisone variation might be partially explained by task cohesion; the DHEA-determined by psychological (un)safety in the group, attitude towards the military and military service, and norm cohesion; and the testosterone-determined by task cohesion and adaptation to the new military environment. The results of this study suggest that subjective measures of social factors can be used to predict hair steroid hormone levels as objective measures of the chronic stress perceived by conscripts during their basic military training.

Social Environmental Factors Related to Resuming Driving after Brain Injury: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.

Many patients resume driving after brain injury regardless of their ability to drive safely. Predictors for resuming driving in terms of actual resumption status and environmental factors are unclear. We evaluated the reasons for resuming driving after brain injury and examined whether social environmental factors are useful predictors of resuming driving. This retrospective cohort study was based on a multicenter questionnaire survey at least 18 months after discharge of brain injury patients with rehabilitation. A total of 206 brain injury patients (cerebrovascular disease and traumatic brain injury) were included in the study, which was conducted according to the International Classification of Functioning (ICF) items using log-binominal regression analysis, evaluating social environmental factors as associated factors of resuming driving after brain injury. Social environmental factors, inadequate public transport (risk ratio (RR), 1.38), and no alternative driver (RR, 1.53) were included as significant independent associated factors. We found that models using ICF categories were effective for investigating factors associated with resuming driving in patients after brain injury and significant association between resuming driving and social environmental factors. Therefore, social environmental factors should be considered when predicting driving resumption in patients after brain injury, which may lead to better counseling and environmental adjustment.

Project Earthrise: Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of inVIVO Planetary Health.

The "Earthrise" photograph, taken on the 1968 Apollo 8 mission, became one of the most significant images of the 20th Century. It triggered a profound shift in environmental awareness and the potential for human unity-inspiring the first Earth Day in 1970. Taking inspiration from these events 50 years later, we initiated Project Earthrise at our 2020 annual conference of inVIVO Planetary Health. This builds on the emergent concept of planetary health, which provides a shared narrative to integrate rich and diverse approaches from all aspects of society towards shared solutions to global challenges. The acute catastrophe of the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn greater attention to many other interconnected global health, environmental, social, spiritual, and economic problems that have been underappreciated or neglected for decades. This is accelerating opportunities for greater collaborative action, as many groups now focus on the necessity of a "Great Transition". While ambitious integrative efforts have never been more important, it is imperative to apply these with mutualistic value systems as a compass, as we seek to make wiser choices. Project Earthrise is our contribution to this important process. This underscores the imperative for creative ecological solutions to challenges in all systems, on all scales with advancing global urbanization in the digital age-for personal, environmental, economic and societal health alike. At the same time, our agenda seeks to equally consider our social and spiritual ecology as it does natural ecology. Revisiting the inspiration of "Earthrise", we welcome diverse perspectives from across all dimensions of the arts and the sciences, to explore novel solutions and new normative values. Building on academic rigor, we seek to place greater value on imagination, kindness and mutualism as we address our greatest challenges, for the health of people, places and planet.

Polysubstance use among national samples of in-school adolescents in Tonga and Vanuatu.

The study aimed to provide estimates on current polysubstance use among adolescents in Tonga and Vanuatu. Cross-sectional and national school health survey data were analyzed from 5028 adolescents (mean age 15.4 years) in Tonga and Vanuatu in 2016-2017. Polysubstance use was defined as currently using two or three substances of tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis. Results indicate that 72.9% of students reported zero current substance use, 14.5% single current substance use, and 12.6% current polysubstance use (2 or 3 types of substance use). In the adjusted multinational logistic regression analysis factors associated with current single and polysubstance included older adolescents (15-18 years or older), male sex, bullied, passive smoking, high psychological distress, and low peer support, whereby the associations with current polysubstance use were stronger than with current single substance use. In addition, parental tobacco use was associated with single substance use, and school truancy and frequent soft drink consumption (≥3 times/day) were associated with current polysubstance use, and high parental support was negatively associated with polysubstance use. More than one in ten of the participating students engaged in current polysubstance use. Several factors associated with current single and polysubstance use were found which can help in designing intervention strategies.

Depression, Anxiety, and Social Environmental Adversity as Potential Modulators of the Immune Tumor Microenvironment in Breast Cancer Patients.

Background: Mounting data suggest that exposure to chronic stress is associated with worse breast cancer outcomes. This study aimed to explore the impact of social environmental adversity (SEA, e.g., child abuse, crime, sexual, and physical violence), depressive symptomatology, and anxiety on immune cell infiltration into the breast tumor microenvironment. Methods: Participants (n = 33) completed a series of surveys assessing depression and anxiety symptoms, adverse childhood events (ACE), and trauma history. Tumor-associated macrophages (CD68+), B cells (CD19+), and T cells (CD3+) were identified by immunohistochemical analyses of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples and quantified. Spearman rank tests were used to explore the relationships between the variables studied. Results: Exposure to SEA was high (ACE = 72%, exposure to crime = 47%, and exposure to physical/sexual assault = 73%) among participants. Moreover, 30% reported a comorbid history of depression and ACE; 39% reported one or more traumatic events, and clinically significant depression symptomatology, while 21% reported trauma history and significant anxiety symptomatology. Increased tumor-infiltrating B cells were significantly correlated with exposure to crime, anxiety symptoms, and exposure to an ACE. The ACE plus anxiety group presented the highest infiltration of B cells, T cells, and macrophages. Conclusion: These findings support a role for SEA, anxiety symptoms, and depression as potential modulators of the immune tumor microenvironment in breast cancer.

Epidemics and the future of coffee production.

In this perspective, we draw on recent scientific research on the coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic that severely impacted several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, to explore how the socioeconomic impacts from COVID-19 could lead to the reemergence of another rust epidemic. We describe how past CLR outbreaks have been linked to reduced crop care and investment in coffee farms, as evidenced in the years following the 2008 global financial crisis. We discuss relationships between CLR incidence, farmer-scale agricultural practices, and economic signals transferred through global and local effects. We contextualize how current COVID-19 impacts on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home orders, and international border policies could affect farmer investments in coffee plants and in turn create conditions favorable for future shocks. We conclude by arguing that COVID-19's socioeconomic disruptions are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis. While this argument illustrates the vulnerabilities that come from a globalized coffee system, it also highlights the necessity of ensuring the well-being of all. By increasing investments in coffee institutions and paying smallholders more, we can create a fairer and healthier system that is more resilient to future social-ecological shocks.

Scenarios of Human Responses to Unprecedented Social-Environmental Extreme Events.

In a rapidly changing world, what is today an unprecedented extreme may soon become the norm. As a result, extreme-related disasters are expected to become more frequent and intense. This will have widespread socio-economic consequences and affect the ability of different societal groups to recover from and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions. Therefore, there is the need to decipher the relation between genesis of unprecedented events, accumulation and distribution of risk, and recovery trajectories across different societal groups. Here, we develop an analytical approach to unravel the complexity of future extremes and multiscalar societal responses-from households to national governments and from immediate impacts to longer term recovery. This requires creating new forms of knowledge that integrate analyses of the past-that is, structural causes and political processes of risk accumulation and differentiated recovery trajectories-with plausible scenarios of future environmental extremes grounded in the event-specific literature. We specifically seek to combine the physical characteristics of the extremes with examinations of how culture, politics, power, and policy visions shape societal responses to unprecedented events, and interpret the events as social-environmental extremes. This new approach, at the nexus between social and natural sciences, has the concrete advantage of providing an impact-focused vision of future social-environmental risks, beyond what is achievable within conventional disciplinary boundaries. In this paper, we focus on extreme flooding events and the societal responses they elicit. However, our approach is flexible and applicable to a wide range of extreme events. We see it as the first building block of a new field of research, allowing for novel and integrated theoretical explanations and forecasting of social-environmental extremes.