Age and sex-specific disability-free life expectancy in urban and rural settings of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) has been used to gain a better understanding of the population's quality of life. OBJECTIVES: The authors aimed to estimate age and sex-specific disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) for urban and rural areas of Bangladesh, as well as to investigate the differences in DFLE between males and females of urban and rural areas. METHODS: Data from the Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics-2016 and the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES)-2016 were used to calculate the disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of urban and rural males and females in Bangladesh in 2016. The DFLE was calculated using the Sullivan method. RESULTS: With only a few exceptions, rural areas have higher mortality and disability rates than urban areas. For both males and females, statistically significant differences in DFLE were reported between urban and rural areas between the ages of birth and 39 years. In comparison to rural males and females, urban males and females had a longer life expectancy (LE), a longer disability-free life expectancy, and a higher share of life without disability. CONCLUSION: This study illuminates stark urban-rural disparities in LE and DFLE, especially among individuals aged < 1-39 years. Gender dynamics reveal longer life expectancy but shorter disability-free life expectancy for Bangladeshi women compared to men, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address these pronounced health inequalities.

Research Note: A Novel Sullivan Method Projection Framework With Application to Long COVID.

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures.

Marital duration in China: Trends and gender differences, 1982-2015.

Objectives: With the postponement in age at marriage, increase in life expectancy, and acceptance of divorce in China, the marital duration in each state has changed gradually. This study seeks to depict the trends and gender differences of marital duration in China from 1982 to 2015. Design: We calculated and depicted the trends of and gender differences in marital duration, including single, marriage, divorce, widowhood duration and the proportion of each duration to the remaining life expectancy at 15. Results: The single duration of Chinese men and women was slightly reduced and then extended, with that of men longer than women, showing a narrowing trend in gender difference. The marriage duration of Chinese men and women is lengthening, with that of women longer than men, demonstrating a widening gap in gender difference. However, the proportion of marriage duration in life expectancy at age 15 increased and then declined, with that of men higher than women. The divorce duration of Chinese men and women slightly reduced and then lengthened, but men tend to stay divorced for longer periods than women, and the gender difference is narrowing. The widowhood duration of Chinese men and women is shortening, with women having longer widowhood than men, and the gender difference has been shrinking. Conclusions: With the socio-economic and demographic transition, the marital duration in each state has changed gradually, and will have an important impact on fertility level and pension burden.

Trends in Partial Disability-Free Life Expectancy between the Ages of 45 and 70 in Canada, 2000-2014.

To better evaluate the benefits of a possible increase in the normal retirement age, this article proposes to examine recent trends in the health status of Canadians between 45 and 70 years of age. Using the Sullivan method, trends from 2000 to 2014 in partial disability-free life expectancy (PDFLE) between the ages of 45 and 70 years are computed. Disability is estimated using attributes of the Health Utility Index correlated with the capacity to work, and is looked at by level of severity. Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey were used to estimate the prevalence of disability. Results reveal a slight increase in partial life expectancy between the ages of 45 and 70, and a larger number of those years spent in poor health since the beginning of the 2000s. Hence, this study brings no evidence in support of the postponement of the normal retirement age if this policy were solely based on gains in life expectancy.

Trends over two decades in life expectancy with complex health problems among older Swedes: implications for the provision of integrated health care and social care.

BACKGROUND: Due to population aging, it is essential to examine to what extent rises in life expectancy (LE) consist of healthy or unhealthy years. Most health expectancy studies have been based on single health measures and have shown divergent trends. We used a multi-domain indicator, complex health problems (CHP), indicative of the need for integrated medical and social care, to investigate how LE with and without CHP developed in Sweden between 1992 and 2011. We also addressed whether individuals with CHP more commonly lived in the community in 2011 compared to earlier years. METHODS: CHP were defined as having severe problems in at least two of three health domains related to the need for medical and/or social care: symptoms/diseases, cognition/communication, and mobility. The Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD), a nationally representative survey of the Swedish population aged ≥ 77 years with waves in 1992, 2002 and 2011 (n≈2000), was used to estimate the prevalence of CHP. Age- and gender-specific death rates were obtained from the Human Mortality Database. The Sullivan method was deployed to calculate the remaining life expectancy with and without CHP. The estimates were decomposed to calculate the contribution of changes from morbidity and mortality to the overall trends in LE without CHP. RESULTS: Between 1992 and 2011, both total LE (+ 1.69 years [95% CI 1.56;1.83] and LE without CHP (+ 0.84 years [-0,87;2.55]) at age 77 increased for men, whereas LE at age 77 increased for women (+ 1.33 [1.21;1.47]) but not LE without CHP (-0.06 years [-1.39;1.26]). When decomposing the trend, we found that the increase in LE with CHP was mainly driven by an increase in the prevalence of CHP. Among individuals with CHP the proportion residing in care homes was lower in 2011 (37%) compared to 2002 (58%) and 1992 (53%). CONCLUSIONS: The findings, that an increasing number of older people are expected to live more years with CHP, and increasingly live in the community, point towards a challenge for individuals and families, as well as for society in financing and organizing coordinated and coherent medical and social services.

Development in life expectancy with good and poor cognitive function in the elderly European Population from 2004-05 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Living not just longer, but also cognitively healthier, and more independent lives is essential if European countries are to cope with the financial challenges that the shifting age composition of Europe's population presents. Here we investigate the change in life expectancy (LE) spent with good and poor cognitive function among older adults across Europe. METHODS: LE with good/poor cognitive function was estimated by the Sullivan Method. Cross-sectional data on cognitive functioning was obtained from 23,213 (wave 1, 2004-05) and 40,874 (wave 6, 2015) 50+-year-olds of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Information on mortality was obtained from the Eurostat Database. Results for 70+-year-olds were emphasized. RESULTS: LE with good cognitive function increased with 1.6 years from 10.7 years (95% CI: 10.6-10.9) in 2004-05 to 12.4 years (95% CI: 12.3-12.5) in 2015 for 70+-year-olds. Disparity was observed across sex and region. In 2004-05, a 70+-year-old woman could expect to spend 30.9% (95% CI: 29.4-32.4) of her remaining LE with poor cognitive function compared to 27.7% (95% CI: 26.0 -29.4) for men. In 2015, women (24.4% (95% CI: 23.4-25.3)) had considerably caught up with men (24.8% (95% CI:23.7.25.8)), shifting the pattern in favor of women. In 2004-05 and 2015, Northern Europeans had the lowest LE with poor cognitive function while Southern Europeans had the highest, but made the most improvement during the period. CONCLUSIONS: Overall we find that LE with poor cognitive function has been compressed in the European population of 70+-year-olds.

Care Life Expectancy: Gender and Unpaid Work in the Context of Population Aging.

Amid growing concern regarding the potential added burden of care due to population aging, we have very little understanding of what is the burden of care in aging populations. To answer this question, we introduce a novel metric that encompasses demographic complexity and social context to summarize unpaid family care work provided to children, elderly, and other family members across the life cycle at a population level. The measure (Care Life Expectancy), an application of the Sullivan method, estimates the number of years and proportion of adult life that people spend in an unpaid caregiving role. We demonstrate the value of the metric by using it to describe gender differences in unpaid care work in 23 European aging countries. We find that at age 15, women and men are expected to be in an unpaid caregiving role for over half of their remaining life. For women in most of the countries, over half of those years will involve high-level caregiving for a family member. We also find that men lag in caregiving across most countries, even when using the lowest threshold of caregiving. As we show here, demographic techniques can be used to enhance our understanding of the gendered implications of population aging, particularly as they relate to policy research and public debate. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-021-09640-z.

Health expectancy indicators: what do they measure? / Indicadores de expectativa de vida saudável: o que medem?

Abstract Background Health expectancy indicators aim at capturing the quality dimension of total life expectancy.; however, the underlying approach, definition of health, and information source differ considerably among the indicators available. Objective (1) Review the main concepts and approaches used to estimate health expectancy focusing on two widely used European health indicators: Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE) and Healthy Life Years (HLY); (2) identify underlying differences between the results yielded by these two indicators. Method Statistical differences between the HALE and HLY indicators by sex at ages 50, 60, and 70 were tested using pairwise and global Student´s t-tests and z-scores based on standard deviation. Data for 29 European countries were collected from the European Health Expectancy Monitoring Unit (EHEMU) information system and the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Results The HALE indicator estimates were smoother across European countries compared with those of the HLY indicator, present a narrower sex gap in morbidity, higher z-scores compared with the average distribution across Europe, and results less sensitive to cross-national variations. Conclusion The HALE estimates indicate that morbidity is more compressed for both sexes, whereas the HLY estimates suggest that morbidity is more compressed for males but more expanded for females. These contrasting results demonstrate that health expectancy indicators should be interpreted with caution.

Resumo Introdução Os indicadores de expectativa de vida saudável visam capturar uma dimensão de qualidade na expectativa de vida total. No entanto, os pressupostos, a definição de saúde e a fonte de informação diferem consideravelmente entre os indicadores. Objetivo (1) Revisar os principais conceitos e abordagens para estimar as expectativas de saúde com foco em dois indicadores de saúde usados no caso europeu (HALE e HLY); e (2) Identificar diferenças subjacentes nos resultados gerados por esses dois indicadores. Método As diferenças estatísticas entre HALE e HLY por sexo nas idades de 50, 60 e 70 são testadas através dos testes t de Student emparelhados e globais e escores z com base no desvio padrão. Os dados são de 29 países europeus do Sistema Europeu de Informação da Unidade de Monitoramento de Expectativas de Saúde (EHEMU) e do estudo OMS-GBD para o ano de 2016. Resultados As estimativas da HALE possuem menor variabilidade entre os países europeus do que a HLY, apresentam uma diferença de morbidade menor por sexo, apresentam escores-z mais altos em comparação com a distribuição média europeia e têm resultados menos sensíveis às variações entre países. Conclusão As estimativas da HALE indicam que a morbidade é mais comprimida para ambos os sexos, enquanto a HLY sugere que a morbidade para os homens é mais comprimida e para mulheres mais expandida. Esses resultados contrastantes implicam que se deve ter cuidado com os indicadores de expectativa de vida saudável e sua interpretação.

Development in methods and application of healthy life expectancy / 上海预防医学

With the development of social economy and improvement of people's health condition， life expectancy continues to extend and people are more concerned about the quality of life. Nowadays people's attention has shifted from living longer lives to living healthier lives. Life expectancy can only reflect the length of life， but not the health condition and quality of life. Meanwhile， healthy life expectancy contains death and disability information， which comprehensively reflects the length and quality of life and evaluates the health status of the population comprehensively. Through literature search and review， the article summarized the research on healthy life expectancy in recent years， including the concept proposal， index development， calculation， and application progress of health life expectancy. The research methods of healthy life expectancy are summarized in order to provide academic reference for further research.

Associations Between Healthcare Resources and Healthy Life Expectancy: A Descriptive Study across Secondary Medical Areas in Japan.

Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world. However, this does not guarantee an improved quality of life. There is a gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. This study aimed to reveal the features of healthy life expectancy across all secondary medical areas (n = 344) in Japan and examine the relationship among healthcare resources, life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy at birth. Data were collected from Japan's population registry and long-term insurance records. Differences in healthy life expectancy by gender were calculated using the Sullivan method. Maps of healthy life expectancy were drawn up. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis were used for analysis. The findings revealed significant regional disparities. The number of doctors and therapists, support clinics for home healthcare facilities and home-visit treatments, and dentistry expenditure per capita were positively correlated with life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (correlation coefficients > 0.2). They also revealed gender differences. Despite controlling for population density, inequalities in healthy life expectancy were observed, highlighting the need to promote social policies to reduce regional disparities. Japanese policymakers should consider optimal levels of health resources to improve life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. The geographical distribution of healthcare resources should also be reconstituted.

The cross-sectional average length of healthy life (HCAL): a measure that summarizes the history of cohort health and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life years have superseded life expectancy (LE) as the most important indicator for population health. The most common approach to separate the total number of life years into those spent in good and poor health is the Sullivan method which incorporates the health dimension to the classic period life table, thus transforming the LE indicator into the health expectancy (HE) indicator. However, life years derived from a period life table and health prevalence derived from survey data are based on different conceptual frameworks. METHOD: We modify the Sullivan method by combining the health prevalence data with the conceptually better fitting cross-sectional average length of life (CAL). We refer to this alternative HE indicator as the "cross-sectional average length of healthy life" (HCAL). We compare results from this alternative indicator with the conventional Sullivan approach for nine European countries. The analyses are based on EU-SILC data in three empirical applications, including the absolute and relative level of healthy life years, changes between 2008 and 2014, and the extent of the gender gap. RESULTS: HCAL and conventional HE differ in each of these empirical applications. In general, HCAL provides larger gains in healthy life years in recent years, but at the same time greater declines in the proportion of healthy life years. Regarding the gender gap, HCAL provides a more favourable picture for women compared to conventional HE. Nonetheless, the extent of these differences between the indicators is only of minor extent. CONCLUSIONS: Albeit the differences between HE and HCAL are small, we found some empirical examples in which the two indicators led to different conclusions. It is important to note, however, that the measurement of health and the data quality are much more important for the healthy life years indicator than the choice of the variant of the Sullivan method. Nonetheless, we suggest to use HCAL in addition to HE whenever possible because it widens the spectrum of empirical analyses and serves for verification of results based on the highly sensitive HE indicator.

Living longer but not necessarily healthier: The joint progress of health and mortality in the working-age population of England.

Despite improvements in life expectancy, there is uncertainty on whether the increase in years of healthy life expectancy has kept pace. In this paper we explore whether there is empirical support for the expansion of morbidity hypothesis in the population aged 25-64 living in England. Nationally representative cohorts born between 1945 and 1980 are constructed from repeated annual cross-sections of the Health Survey for England, 1991-2014. Later-born cohorts at a given age have the same or higher prevalence of self-reported bad general health and long-term illness, self-reported high blood pressure (in men), self-reported and objectively-measured diabetes, circulatory illnesses, clinical hypertension, and overweight BMI. We also find that healthy life expectancies (in the sense of absence of each of these problems) at age 25 have increased at a slower pace than life expectancy between 1993 and 2013. Our findings lend support to the expansion of morbidity hypothesis and point to increased future demand for specific healthcare services at younger ages.

Trends in good self-rated health in Germany between 1995 and 2014: do age and gender matter?

OBJECTIVES: This study analyzes longitudinal trends in self-rated health (SRH) by taking age- and gender-specific differences into account. METHODS: Data of 29,251 women and 26,967 men were obtained from the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1995 and 2014. Generalized Estimation Equation analysis for logistic regression was used to estimate changes in odds of (very) good SRH over time. Development of (un)healthy life expectancy was calculated by applying the Sullivan method. RESULTS: While in women, the odds of good SRH increased significantly over time for the ages 41-50 to 71-80 years, improvements among men were most apparent for the ages 61-70 and 71-80 years. By contrast, for both genders, no improvements in SRH were found in the youngest (31-40 years) and eldest age group (81-90 years) and in men aging 51-60 years. Over time, healthy life expectancy at age 31 increased by 3 years in women and 2 years in men, leading to a reduced but not eliminated gender gap in SRH. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the hypothesis of relative compression of morbidity. However, trends in SRH differed according to age and gender, calling for health promotion efforts that meet diverse needs at different stages of life.

Estimativas de expectativa de vida livre de incapacidade funcional para Brasil e Grandes Regiões, 1998 e 2013 / Disability-free life expectancy estimates for Brazil and Major Regions, 1998 and 2013

Resumo A expectativa de vida aos 60 anos no Brasil aumentou cerca de 9 anos em pouco mais de meio século. Trata-se de um ganho de sobrevida generalizado, mas que também ocorre de forma heterogênica entre as Grandes Regiões do país. Por outro lado, pouco se sabe, ainda, como os aumentos da expectativa de vida aos 60 anos por região podem ser acompanhados por acréscimos ou decréscimos tanto nos anos vividos com incapacidade, quanto nos vividos livre de incapacidade. O objetivo deste artigo é analisar, para 1998 e 2013, aumentos na Expectativa de Vida Total e suas componentes: Expectativa de Vida Livre de Incapacidade Funcional (EVLI) e com Incapacidade Funcional (EVCI), aos 60, 70 e 80 anos para a população do Brasil e Grandes Regiões. O estudo utilizou informações sobre incapacidade funcional da PNAD de 1998 e PNS de 2013 e empregou o método de Sullivan para estimação da EVLI por sexo e idade. No geral, os resultados mostraram que, entre 1998 e 2013, concomitantemente aos ganhos na EV, ocorreu um crescimento na EVLI. Contudo, os ganhos na EVLI não foram estatisticamente significativos para as regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste. Ou seja, com exceção dessas regiões, além de viver mais, a população idosa de 60 anos poderia esperar viver um número maior de anos com saúde.

Abstract Life expectancy at age 60 in Brazil has increased by around nine years in a little over 50 years. This general gain in life expectancy at national level has been heterogeneous across the country's major regions. Furthermore, little is known about how increases in life expectancy at age 60 across regions influence the number of years lived with some form of associated disability or the number of years lived free from disability. This study aimed to analyze increases in total life expectancy and its components [disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and disability life expectancy (DLE)] at ages 60, 70, and 80 in Brazil and Major Regions in 1998 and 2013. The study used data on disability obtained from the 1998 National Household Sample Survey (PNAD - acronym in Portuguese) and 2013 National Health Survey (PNS- acronym in Portuguese) and used the Sullivan method to estimate DFLE by sex and age. The findings show that there was an increase in life expectancy and a concomitant increase in DFLE between 1998 and 2013. However, the gains in DFLE were not statistically significant in the North and Center-west regions. This means that, with the exception of the latter regions, in addition to living longer, the Brazils population aged 60 years can expect to live a greater number of healthy years.

[Estimation on the health life expectancy of adults in Zhejiang province, 2016].

Objective: To estimate the health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) of adults in Zhejiang province and evaluate the health status of the adults. Methods: This study was based on the mortality data collected from Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information and Management System, and mortality rates from the underreporting survey and self-reported health data in 2016. Hierarchical Ordered Probit (HOPIT) model was used to estimate the severity-weighted prevalence of disability. Sullivan's method was used to calculate the HALE. Results: After adjustment by HOPIT model, the severity-weighted prevalence of disability increased significantly with age (χ(2)=5 795.81,P<0.001), and it was higher in females than in males (χ(2)=5 353.27, P<0.001). The life expectancy and self-evaluated HALE were 59.08 years and 48.68 years, respectively, in those aged ≥20 years, the difference was 10.40 years due to disability. The proportion of HALE loss due to disability in the total life expectancy was 17.61%, and it increased with age. HALE was higher in males than in females (49.21 years vs. 48.14 years), and in urban residents than in rural residents (49.92 years vs. 47.43 years). Conclusion: The proportion of loss of HALE in the total life expectancy in adults was high in Zhejiang, and it higher in males than in females, in urban residents than rural residents. Programs on improving health care in women and rural residents should be promoted.

What is the duration of life expectancy in the state of frailty? Estimates in the SIPAF study.

The screening of frailty can trigger interventions aiming to delay disability in older people. Whereas the prevalence, the consequences, and the factors associated with frailty are well described, little is known about the duration of the state of frailty. This study aimed to estimate the time spent in the state of frailty in men and women using the Sullivan method. Data used were the age- and sex-specific prevalence of frailty found in SIPAF study ("Système d'Information sur la Perte d'Autonomie Fonctionnelle de la personne âgée") and statistics of mortality from the Human Mortality Database. The SIPAF study included 2350 individuals aged 70 and over and living in France. Participants were interviewed at home by trained nurses. Frailty was defined as impairment in three domains or more among nutrition, energy, physical activity, strength, and mobility. People requiring assistance in basic activities of daily living were considered in a separate category. Mean age of the study sample was 83.3 ± 7.5 years, with 59.4% of women. Overall, the prevalence of pre-frailty, frailty, and dependency was 39.1, 17.0, and 15.4%, respectively. Life expectancy at age 70 was 18.3 years for women, of which 7.4 years (95% CI 6.9-7.9) were pre-frail, 3.4 years (95% CI 3.0-3.8) frail, and 2.4 (95% CI 2.1-2.7) with disability. In contrast, LE for men at 70 was 14.8 years, of which pre-frail, frail, and disabled years were 6.0 years (95% CI 5.5-6.5), 1.2 years (95% CI 1.0-1.5), and 1.2 (95% CI 1.0-1.5), respectively. In conclusion, frailty is a transition state that is relatively limited in time compared to pre-frailty that may represent a larger time window for prevention.

Matrix methods in health demography: a new approach to the stochastic analysis of healthy longevity and DALYs.

BACKGROUND: Increases in human longevity have made it critical to distinguish healthy longevity from longevity without regard to health. Current methods focus on expectations of healthy longevity, and are often limited to binary health outcomes (e.g., disabled vs. not disabled). We present a new matrix formulation for the statistics of healthy longevity, based on health prevalence data and Markov chain theory, applicable to any kind of health outcome and which provides variances and higher moments as well as expectations of healthy life. METHOD: The model is based on a Markov chain description of the life course coupled with the moments of health outcomes ("rewards") at each age or stage. As an example, we apply the method to nine European countries using the SHARE survey data on the binary outcome of disability as measured by activities of daily living, and the continuous health outcome of hand grip strength. RESULTS: We provide analytical formulas for the mean, variance, coefficient of variation, skewness and other statistical properties of healthy longevity. The analysis is applicable to binary, categorical, ordinal, or interval scale health outcomes. The results are easily evaluated in any matrix-oriented software. The SHARE results reveal familiar patterns for the expectation of life and of healthy life: women live longer than men but spend less time in a healthy condition. New results on the variance shows that the standard deviation of remaining healthy life declines with age, but the coefficient of variation is nearly constant. Remaining grip strength years decrease with age more dramatically than healthy years but their variability pattern is similar to the pattern of healthy years. Patterns are similar across nine European countries. CONCLUSIONS: The method extends, in several directions, current calculations of health expectancy (HE) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). It applies to both categorical and continuous health outcomes, to combinations of multiple outcomes (e.g., death and disability in the formulation of DALYs) and to age- or stage-classified models. It reveals previously unreported patterns of variation among individuals in the outcomes of healthy longevity.

The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels, Recent Trends, and the Impact of the Financial Crisis.

While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004-2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 years for females. The recession had a tremendous impact on the Spanish labor market, but the effects differed considerably by gender and occupational category. Men working in skilled non-manual jobs were less affected, while men working in unskilled manual jobs lost close to 14 years of working life expectancy. Women were less affected than men. With working life expectancy decreasing, the average proportion of lifetime spent in unemployment and outside the labor market increased markedly, whereas the average number of years spent in retirement changed only a little. When we decompose losses in working life expectancy by age group, we find that economic fluctuations affect both older and younger workers. This result suggests that policies that focus on retirement ages only are incomplete. We also compare our findings to the results obtained by Sullivans method, which is based on prevalence rates rather than the incidence-based working life table approach. We find that the use of Sullivans approach does not accurately reflect the levels of and the trends in working life expectancy.

Estimation on the health life expectancy of adults in Zhejiang province, 2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To estimate the health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) of adults in Zhejiang province and evaluate the health status of the adults.Methods This study was based on the mortality data collected from Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information and Management System,and mortality rates from the underreporting survey and self-reported health data in 2016.Hierarchical Ordered Probit (HOPIT) model was used to estimate the severity-weighted prevalence of disability.Sullivan's method was used to calculate the HALE.Results After adjustment by HOPIT model,the severity-weighted prevalence of disability increased significantly with age (x2=5 795.81,P＜0.001),and it was higher in females than in males (x2=5 353.27,P＜0.001).The life expectancy and self-evaluated HALE were 59.08 years and 48.68 years,respectively,in those aged ≥20 years,the difference was 10.40 years due to disability.The proportion of HALE loss due to disability in the total life expectancy was 17.61％,and it increased with age.HALE was higher in males than in females (49.21 years vs.48.14 years),and in urban residents than in rural residents (49.92 years vs.47.43 years).Conclusion The proportion of loss of HALE in the total life expectancy in adults was high in Zhejiang,and it higher in males than in females,in urban residents than rural residents.Programs on improving health care in women and rural residents should be promoted.

Estimation on the health life expectancy of adults in Zhejiang province, 2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To estimate the health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) of adults in Zhejiang province and evaluate the health status of the adults. Methods: This study was based on the mortality data collected from Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information and Management System, and mortality rates from the underreporting survey and self-reported health data in 2016. Hierarchical Ordered Probit (HOPIT) model was used to estimate the severity-weighted prevalence of disability. Sullivan's method was used to calculate the HALE. Results: After adjustment by HOPIT model, the severity-weighted prevalence of disability increased significantly with age (χ(2)=5 795.81,P<0.001), and it was higher in females than in males (χ(2)=5 353.27, P<0.001). The life expectancy and self-evaluated HALE were 59.08 years and 48.68 years, respectively, in those aged ≥20 years, the difference was 10.40 years due to disability. The proportion of HALE loss due to disability in the total life expectancy was 17.61%, and it increased with age. HALE was higher in males than in females (49.21 years vs. 48.14 years), and in urban residents than in rural residents (49.92 years vs. 47.43 years). Conclusion: The proportion of loss of HALE in the total life expectancy in adults was high in Zhejiang, and it higher in males than in females, in urban residents than rural residents. Programs on improving health care in women and rural residents should be promoted.