Environmental scanning of cocaine trafficking in Brazil: Evidence from geospatial intelligence and natural language processing methods.

Cocaine trafficking threatens countries' national security and is a major public health challenge. Cocaine is transported from producer countries to consumer markets using various routes, methods, and transportation means. These routes develop in the geographical environment, are carefully planned and are geo-strategic objects that respond to the opportunities that drug trafficking organisations (DTOs) find to reduce the risks of interdiction. In this sense, individual drug seizure data (IDS) become essential indicators for identifying trends and understanding trafficking flows associated with drug trafficking routes. However, due to the illicit nature of DTOs, the availability of these data is considerably limited, hindering the ability to analyse and identify trends. This study presents a methodology for collecting and processing data from open-source information reported by Brazil's federal government news website. Using geospatial intelligence and natural language processing methods, we created a dataset with 939 records and 44 variables related to cocaine seizures in Brazil in 2022. We applied geospatial analysis techniques from this dataset to identify trends and potential cocaine trafficking flows. The results were broadly consistent with existing literature on drug trafficking. They demonstrated the potential of open-source information for environmental scanning and knowledge generation through geographic information science. The approach proposed in our research provides tools that can be used to complement drug trafficking monitoring and formulate public policies to strengthen prevention and enforcement strategies.

A geographical analysis of trafficking on a popular darknet market.

Cryptomarkets are online marketplaces, located on the darknet, that facilitate the trading of a variety of illegal goods, mostly drugs. While the literature essentially focus on drugs, various other goods and products related to financial or identity fraud, firearms, counterfeit goods, as well as doping products are also offered on these marketplaces. Through the analysis of relevant data collected on a popular marketplace in 2014-2015, Evolution, this research provides an analysis of the structure of trafficking (types and proportions of products, number of vendors and shipping countries). It also aims at highlighting geographical patterns in the trafficking of these products (e.g. trafficking flows, specialisation of vendors and assessment of their role in the distribution chain). The analysis of the flow of goods between countries emphasises the role of specific countries in the international and domestic trafficking, potentially informing law enforcement agencies to target domestic mails or international posts from specific countries. The research also highlights the large proportion of licit and illicit drug listings and vendors on Evolution, followed by various fraud issues (in particular, financial fraud), the sharing of knowledge (tutorials) and finally goods, currencies and precious metals (principally luxury goods). Looking at the shipping country, there seems to be a clear division between digital and physical products, with more specific information for physical goods. This reveals that the spatial analysis of trafficking is particularly meaningful in the case of physical products (such as illicit drugs) and to a lesser extent for digital products. Finally, the geographical analysis reveals that spatial patterns on Evolution tend to reflect the structure of the traditional illicit market. However, regarding illicit drugs, country-specificity has been observed and are presented in this article.