A deep belief rule base-based fault diagnosis method for complex systems.

Complex systems are prone to faults due to their intricate structures, potentially impacting system stability. Therefore, fault diagnosis has become crucial for maintaining stable operation. In the field of complex systems, the combinatorial explosion problem in belief rule base (BRB) has attracted significant attention. The interdependence among system components leads to numerous variables and the need for rules, heightening model complexity. Regarding the combinatorial explosion problem, an improved belief rule network structure called deep BRB (DBRB) is proposed. First, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) feature selection method is employed to choose the relatively important feature subset. Next, driven by the importance of features, different levels of features are input into the model, forming a complete and progressive network structure. Finally, the model undergoes the reasoning and optimization process. The effectiveness of the model is confirmed with a bearing fault dataset. After a comprehensive evaluation of multiple indicators, this method demonstrates a consistent improvement in classification performance as the depth increased. Moreover, compared to the traditional BRB model, this method notably reduces the number of parameters, improving its efficiency of processing complex data. In short, this method effectively tackles combinatorial explosion while ensuring model performance. The selection and assignment of feature subsets enhance the logic and readability of the model. Through the network structure, various fault features are captured well. This fault diagnosis method, rooted in the DBRB, offers a novel perspective on diagnosing complex system faults.

A fault diagnosis method for wireless sensor network nodes based on a belief rule base with adaptive attribute weights.

Due to the harsh operating environment and ultralong operating hours of wireless sensor networks (WSNs), node failures are inevitable. Ensuring the reliability of the data collected by the WSN necessitates the utmost importance of diagnosing faults in nodes within the WSN. Typically, the initial step in the fault diagnosis of WSN nodes involves extracting numerical features from neighboring nodes. A solitary data feature is often assigned a high weight, resulting in the failure to effectively distinguish between all types of faults. Therefore, this study introduces an enhanced variant of the traditional belief rule base (BRB), called the belief rule base with adaptive attribute weights (BRB-AAW). First, the data features are extracted as input attributes for the model. Second, a fault diagnosis model for WSN nodes, incorporating BRB-AAW, is established by integrating parameters initialized by expert knowledge with the extracted data features. Third, to optimize the model's initial parameters, the projection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (P-CMA-ES) algorithm is employed. Finally, a comprehensive case study is designed to verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results of the case study indicate that compared with the traditional BRB method, the accuracy of the proposed model in WSN node fault diagnosis is significantly improved.

An interpretable model for stock price movement prediction based on the hierarchical belief rule base.

Stock price movement prediction is the basis for decision-making to maintain the stability and security of stock markets. It is important to generate predictions in an interpretable manner. The Belief Rule Base (BRB) has certain interpretability based on IF-THEN rule semantics. However, the interpretability of BRB in the whole process of stock prediction modeling may be weakened or lost. Therefore, this paper proposes an interpretable model for stock price movement prediction based on the hierarchical Belief Rule Base (HBRB-I). The interpretability of the model is considered, and several criteria are constructed based on the BRB expert system. First, the hierarchical structure of BRB is constructed to ensure the interpretability of the initial modeling. Second, the interpretability of the inference process is ensured by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) method as a transparent inference engine. Third, a new Projection Covariance Matrix Adaptive Evolution Strategy (P-CMA-ES) algorithm with interpretability criteria is designed to ensure the interpretability of the optimization process. The final mean squared error value of 1.69E-04 was obtained with similar accuracy to the initial BRB and enhanced in terms of interpretability. This paper is for short-term stock forecasting, and more data will be collected in the future to update the rules to enhance the forecasting capability of the rule base.

Fault Diagnosis for Complex Equipment Based on Belief Rule Base with Adaptive Nonlinear Membership Function.

Fault diagnosis of complex equipment has become a hot field in recent years. Due to excellent uncertainty processing capability and small sample problem modeling capability, belief rule base (BRB) has been widely used in the fault diagnosis. However, previous BRB models almost did not consider the diverse distributions of observation data which may reduce diagnostic accuracy. In this paper, a new fault diagnosis model based on BRB is proposed. Considering that the previous triangular membership function cannot address the diverse distribution of observation data, a new nonlinear membership function is proposed to transform the input information. Then, since the model parameters initially determined by experts are inaccurate, a new parameter optimization model with the parameters of the nonlinear membership function is proposed and driven by the gradient descent method to prevent the expert knowledge from being destroyed. A fault diagnosis case of laser gyro is used to verify the validity of the proposed model. In the case study, the diagnosis accuracy of the new BRB-based fault diagnosis model reached 95.56%, which shows better fault diagnosis performance than other methods.

A new stock market analysis method based on evidential reasoning and hierarchical belief rule base to support investment decision making.

Stock market analysis is helpful for investors to make reasonable decisions and maintain market stability, and it usually involves not only quantitative data but also qualitative information, so the analysis method needs to have the ability to deal with both types of information comprehensively. In addition, due to the inherent risk of stock investment, it is necessary to ensure that the analysis results can be traced and interpreted. To solve the above problems, a stock market analysis method based on evidential reasoning (ER) and hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB) is proposed in this paper. First, an evaluation model is constructed based on expert knowledge and ER to evaluate stock market sentiment. Then, a stock market decision model based on HBRB is constructed to support investment decision making, such as buying and selling stocks and holding positions. Finally, the Shanghai Stock Index from 2010 to 2019 is used as an example to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed stock market analysis method for investment decision support. Experimental research demonstrates that the proposed method can help analyze the stock market comprehensively and support investors to make investment decisions effectively.

A new method for disease diagnosis based on hierarchical BRB with power set.

Disease diagnosis occupies an important position in the medical field. The diagnosis of the disease is the basis for choosing the right treatment plan. Doctors must first diagnose what the patient has based on the clinical characteristics of various diseases, and then they can administer the right medicine. When building models for disease diagnosis, models are required to be able to handle various uncertainty information. The belief rule base (BRB) can effectively handle various information under uncertainty by introducing belief distributions. However, in current research, BRB-based disease diagnosis models still have problems of combinatorial rule explosion and inability to deal with local ignorance effectively. Therefore, a hierarchical BRB with power set (H-BRBp)-based disease diagnosis model is proposed in this paper. First, the physiological indexes and data of the patients were analyzed, and the data were preprocessed using the principal component regression (PCR) algorithm. Second, the H-BRBp disease diagnosis model was constructed to solve the deficiencies in the above BRB disease diagnosis model. Finally, the validity and advantages of the model were verified by experiments on lumbar spine disease diagnosis and a large number of comparison experiments.

A New Topology-Switching Strategy for Fault Diagnosis of Multi-Agent Systems Based on Belief Rule Base.

Effective fault-diagnosis strategies have been the focus of research on multi-agent systems (MASs). In this paper, the belief rule base (BRB)-based distributed fault-diagnosis problem for MASs is investigated, and a topology-switching strategy is developed to increase the reliability of fault-diagnosis model. Firstly, a BRB-based distributed fault-diagnosis model is constructed for the MAS with multiple faults, then expert knowledge is used to judge whether the agent is faulty. Then, considering that the system may be influenced by the fault or some other factors and thus leading to a decrease in the accuracy of the fault-diagnosis results, a topology-switching strategy based on the average distance of the output diagnosis accuracy is proposed to update the topology of the agent so that the fault-diagnosis results can be more reliable. Note that the topology-switching threshold is designed based on the average distance between the accuracy of the fault diagnosis of each agent. The method proposed in this paper can solve the problem when the fault-diagnosis accuracy of the model is affected by some common factors and thus decreases, and can improve the reliability of the fault-diagnosis model very well. Finally, the effectiveness of the BRB-based distributed fault-diagnosis model and the proposed topology-switching strategy to improve the fault-diagnosis accuracy is verified by simulation examples.

A wireless sensor network node fault diagnosis model based on belief rule base with power set.

Wireless sensor network (WSN) is inevitably subject to node failures due to their harsh operating environments and extra-long working hours. In order to ensure reliable and correct data collection, WSN node fault diagnosis is necessary. Fault diagnosis of sensor nodes usually requires the extraction of data features from the original collected data. However, the data features of different types of faults sometimes have similarities, making it difficult to distinguish and represent the types of faults in the diagnosis results, these indistinguishable types of faults are called ambiguous information. Therefore, a belief rule base with power set (PBRB) fault diagnosis method is proposed. In this method, the power set identification framework is used to represent the fuzzy information, the evidential reasoning (ER) method is used as the reasoning process, and the projection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (P-CMA-ES) is used as the parameter optimization algorithm. The results of the case study show that PBRB method has higher accuracy and better stability compared to other commonly used fault diagnosis methods. According to the research results, PBRB can not only represent the fault types that are difficult to distinguish, but also has the advantage of small sample training. This makes the model obtain high fault diagnosis accuracy and stability.

Data-Driven Thyroid Nodule Diagnosis Using Belief Rule Base.

Doctors' diagnosis preferences are different, which makes them adopt different assumptions in medical decision making. Taking the diagnosis of thyroid nodules as an example, this study compares three assumptions, namely deletion, imputation based on the distribution (distribution), and benign by default (benign). For deletion, which is the most used assumption, the clinical reports with missing features would be deleted. For distribution, the missing features would be replaced with a distribution of features with respective probabilities. Besides the two assumptions, certain doctors have also stated that they leave benign features unrecorded because they think that such benign features are irrelevant to the final diagnosis. Under the benign assumption, the missing features would be replaced with benign features. The three assumptions are tested comparatively. Moreover, the belief rule base (BRB) is used to construct the diagnostic model under the three assumptions since it is essentially a white-box approach that can provide good interpretability and direct access to doctors and patients. A total of 3766 clinical reports on thyroid nodule diagnosis were collected from ten radiologists over a seven-year period. Case study results validate that the benign by default assumption has produced the optimal results, although different doctors could present varied tendencies towards different assumptions. Guidance and suggestions for doctors' practical work have been made based on the study results to improve work efficiency and diagnostic accuracy.

A new unmanned aerial vehicle intrusion detection method based on belief rule base with evidential reasoning.

With the growing security demands in the public, civil and military fields, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) intrusion detection has attracted increasing attention. In view of the shortcomings of the current UAV intrusion detection model using Wi-Fi data traffic in terms of detection accuracy, sample size reduction, and model interpretability, this paper proposes a new detection algorithm for UAV intrusion. This paper presents an interpretable intrusion detection model for UAVs based on the belief rule base (BRB). BRB can effectively use various types of information to establish any nonlinear relationship between the model input and output. It can model and simulate any nonlinear model and optimize the model parameters. However, the rule combination explosion problem is encountered in BRB if there are too many attributes. Therefore, an evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm is proposed for solving this problem. By combining the capabilities of the ER and the BRB methodologies, a new evaluation model, named the EBRB-based model, is proposed here for predicting UAV intrusion detection, even in the case of a massive number of attributes. The global optimization of the model is ensured. A new interpretable and globally optimized UAV intrusion detection model is proposed, which is the main contribution of this paper. An experimental case is used to demonstrate the implementation and application of the proposed UAV intrusion detection method.

A novel data-driven decision model based on extended belief rule base to predict China's carbon emissions.

Global warming and climate change are gaining traction in recent years. As a major cause of global warming, carbon emissions were centered to China's climate change policy initiatives. Nevertheless, the existing policy discourse has yet reached a consensus on the optimal modeling method for carbon emissions prediction that is well-informed of both policy goals and the time-series pattern of carbon emissions. This paper fills the gap by promoting a novel data-driven decision model for carbon emissions prediction that is based on the extended belief rule base (EBRB) inference model. The new decision model consists of three components: 1) an indicator integration method, which aims to generate a few group indicators from a large number of statistical indicators; 2) a new EBRB construction method, which aims to consider the management policy goals for constructing EBRB; 3) a new ER-based inference method, which aims to predict carbon emissions based on time series change of relevant factors. The effectiveness of the proposed decision model has been tested against carbon emissions management data from 30 provinces in China. Experimental results demonstrate that the model will offer powerful reference value in the policy decision-making process, which will help to meet policy requirements for carbon emissions.

An Integrated Deep Learning and Belief Rule Base Intelligent System to Predict Survival of COVID-19 Patient under Uncertainty.

The novel Coronavirus-induced disease COVID-19 is the biggest threat to human health at the present time, and due to the transmission ability of this virus via its conveyor, it is spreading rapidly in almost every corner of the globe. The unification of medical and IT experts is required to bring this outbreak under control. In this research, an integration of both data and knowledge-driven approaches in a single framework is proposed to assess the survival probability of a COVID-19 patient. Several neural networks pre-trained models: Xception, InceptionResNetV2, and VGG Net, are trained on X-ray images of COVID-19 patients to distinguish between critical and non-critical patients. This prediction result, along with eight other significant risk factors associated with COVID-19 patients, is analyzed with a knowledge-driven belief rule-based expert system which forms a probability of survival for that particular patient. The reliability of the proposed integrated system has been tested by using real patient data and compared with expert opinion, where the performance of the system is found promising.

AutoBRB: An automated belief rule base model for pathologic complete response prediction in gastric cancer.

Gastric cancer is one of the most severe malignant lesions. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has proven to be an effective method in gastric cancer treatment, and patients who achieved the pathologic complete response (pCR) after NAC can improve survival time further. To accurately predict pCR in an interpretable way, a new automated belief rule base (AutoBRB) model is developed with careful data analysis in this paper. In AutoBRB, to determine the referential values that are important for the rule building, both the information gain ratio and expert knowledge are used, while a table-based strategy is designed to initialize the belief degrees for each rule. Then, the differential evolution (DE) algorithm is employed and modified for model optimization to improve the model's performance. Finally, with the help of training data, an adaptive searching strategy is designed to set the confidence threshold for the final prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that AutoBRB shows a more reasonable performance on the prediction of pCR.

A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Tuberculosis under Uncertainty.

The primary diagnosis of Tuberculosis (TB) is usually carried out by looking at the various signs and symptoms of a patient. However, these signs and symptoms cannot be measured with 100 % certainty since they are associated with various types of uncertainties such as vagueness, imprecision, randomness, ignorance and incompleteness. Consequently, traditional primary diagnosis, based on these signs and symptoms, which is carried out by the physicians, cannot deliver reliable results. Therefore, this article presents the design, development and applications of a Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES) with the ability to handle various types of uncertainties to diagnose TB. The knowledge base of this system is constructed by taking experts' suggestions and by analyzing historical data of TB patients. The experiments, carried out, by taking the data of 100 patients demonstrate that the BRBES's generated results are more reliable than that of human expert as well as fuzzy rule based expert system.