Clinical-radiomics nomogram for the risk prediction of esophageal fistula in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy or volumetric-modulated arc therapy.

Background: Esophageal fistula (EF) is a serious adverse event as a result of radiotherapy in patients with esophageal cancer (EC). We aimed to identify the predictive factors and establish a prediction model of EF in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) or volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Methods: Patients with ESCC treated with IMRT or VMAT from January 2013 to December 2020 at Xijing Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Ultimately, 43 patients with EF and 129 patients without EF were included in the analysis and propensity-score matched in a 1:3 ratio. The clinical characteristics and radiomics features were extracted. Univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors associated with EF. Results: The median follow-up time was 24.0 months (range, 1.3-104.9 months), and the median overall survival (OS) was 13.1 months in patients with EF. A total of 1,158 radiomics features were extracted, and eight radiomics features were selected for inclusion into a model for predicting EF, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.794. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor length, tumor volume, T stage, lymphocyte rate (LR), and grade IV esophagus stenosis were related to EF, and the AUC value of clinical model for predicting EF was 0.849. The clinical-radiomics model had the best performance in predicting EF with an AUC value of 0.896. Conclusions: The clinical-radiomics nomogram can predict the risk of EF in ESCC patients and is helpful for the individualized treatment of EC.

Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio is an independent predictor of chemoradiotherapy-related esophageal fistula in esophageal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) are all markers of systemic inflammation response. The role of systemic inflammation in the development of esophageal fistula (EF) has yet to be defined. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of hematologic measures of inflammation and to set up a predictive model. METHODS: The data of esophageal cancer (EC) patients who received chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in our institution between January, 2015 and January, 2018 were retrospectively collected. The NLR, PLR, and MLR of these enrolled patients were calculated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to find the independent risk factors of EF. Moreover, a nomogram model was developed to predict the probability of fistula occurring in EC patients. RESULTS: For PLR, the optimal cut-off value was 153. Patients with PLR >153 had a higher probability of developing fistula than those with PLR ≤153 (P<0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed that esophageal stenosis, ulcerative tumor, and PLR were independent factors for EF. Subsequently, a novel nomogram was set up with the C-index of 0.77 to predict the risk of developing EF in EC patients who received CRT. CONCLUSIONS: PLR is an independent predictive indicator for EC patients who receive CRT. These findings will help to facilitate individual risk stratification for the development of EF in patients with EC.