Probing the capacity of a spatiotemporal deep learning model for short-term PM2.5 forecasts in a coastal urban area.

Accurate forecast of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is crucial for city air pollution control, yet remains challenging due to the complex urban atmospheric chemical and physical processes. Recently deep learning has been routinely applied for better urban PM2.5 forecasts. However, their capacity to represent the spatiotemporal urban atmospheric processes remains underexplored, especially compared with traditional approaches such as chemistry-transport models (CTMs) and shallow statistical methods other than deep learning. Here we probe such urban-scale representation capacity of a spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model for 24-hour short-term PM2.5 forecasts at six urban stations in Rizhao, a coastal city in China. Compared with two operational CTMs and three statistical models, the STDL model shows its superiority with improvements in all five evaluation metrics, notably in root mean square error (RMSE) for forecasts at lead times within 12 h with reductions of 49.8 % and 47.8 % respectively. This demonstrates the STDL model's capacity to represent nonlinear small-scale phenomena such as street-level emissions and urban meteorology that are in general not well represented in either CTMs or shallow statistical models. This gain of small-scale representation in forecast performance decreases at increasing lead times, leading to similar RMSEs to the statistical methods (linear shallow representations) at about 12 h and to the CTMs (mesoscale representations) at 24 h. The STDL model performs especially well in winter, when complex urban physical and chemical processes dominate the frequent severe air pollution, and in moisture conditions fostering hygroscopic growth of particles. The DL-based PM2.5 forecasts align with observed trends under various humidity and wind conditions. Such investigation into the potential and limitations of deep learning representation for urban PM2.5 forecasting could hopefully inspire further fusion of distinct representations from CTMs and deep networks to break the conventional limits of short-term PM2.5 forecasts.

The value of combined detection of specific immunoglobulin E, interleukin-6 and regulatory T cells in predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis and nasal polyps.

Background: To investigate the predictive value of specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and regulatory T cells (Treg) on the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with eosinophilic Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (EcRswNP). Methods: A total of 198 patients with EcRswNP collected to our Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the research subjects. All patients underwent functional endoscopic sinus surgery. The patients were selected to recurrence group (RG, n = 48) and nonrecurrence group (NRG, n = 150) on the basis of the recurrence after 1 year of follow-up. The related factors of postoperative recurrence of EcRswNP were analyzed. The ROC was used to analyze the dangerous of sIgE, IL-6 and Treg in predicting postoperative recurrence of EcRswNP patients. Results: The proportion of asthma patients, nasal congestion VAS score, and peripheral blood Eos% content in the RG exceeded that in the NRG, and the Organization Neu % and peripheral blood Neu% levels were less than those in the NRGp (P all < 0.05). The serum sIgE and serum IL6 in the RG were higher than those in the NRG, while the level of peripheral blood Treg was lower than that in the NRG (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that high levels of serum sIgE, serum IL-6 and low Treg levels were risk factors for postoperative recurrence (P < 0.05). ROC showed that the AUC of peripheral blood sIgE level, IL-6 and Treg levels alone in predicting the dangerous of postoperative recurrence in patients with EcRswNP were 0.786, 0.707 and 0.636, respectively (all P < 0.05); The AUC of combined prediction of peripheral blood sIgE, IL-6 and Treg levels for postoperative recurrence dangerous in patients with EcRswNP was 0.973, indicating that the efficacy of jointed prediction was exceed than that of single prediction (P < 0.05). Conclusions: The high levels of sIgE, IL6 and low Treg levels in patients with EcRswNP before operation will increase the risk of postoperative recurrence, which is a risk factor affecting postoperative recurrence, and the three indicators have good predictive value for predicting postoperative recurrence in patients with EcRswNP, and the combination of the three indicators has better value in predicting postoperative recurrence.

On the use of hydrodynamic modelling and random forest classifiers for the prediction of hypoxia in coastal lagoons.

Hypoxia is one of the fundamental threats to water quality globally, particularly for partially enclosed basins with limited water renewal, such as coastal lagoons. This work proposes the combined use of a machine learning technique, field observations and data derived from a hydrodynamic and heat exchange numerical model to predict, and forecast up to 10 days in advance, the occurrence of hypoxia in a eutrophic coastal lagoon. The random forest machine learning algorithm is used, training and validating a set of models to classify dissolved oxygen levels in the lagoon. The Orbetello lagoon, in the central Mediterranean Sea (Italy), has provided a test case for assessing the reliability of the proposed methodology. Results proved that the methodology is effective in providing a reliable short-term evaluation of DO levels, with a high resolution in both time and space throughout an entire lagoon. An overall classification accuracy of up to 91 % was found in the models, with a score for identifying the occurrence of severe hypoxia - i.e. hourly DO levels lower than 2 mg/l - of 86 %. The use of predictors extracted from a numerical hydrodynamic model allows us to overcome the intrinsic limitation of machine learning modelling approaches which rely on input data from relatively few, local field measurements, i.e. the inability to capture the spatial heterogeneity of DO distributions, unless several measuring points are available. The methodological approach is proposed for application to similar eutrophic environments.

Hybrid Twins Modeling of a High-Level Radioactive Waste Cell Demonstrator for Long-Term Temperature Monitoring and Forecasting.

Monitoring a deep geological repository for radioactive waste during the operational phases relies on a combination of fit-for-purpose numerical simulations and online sensor measurements, both producing complementary massive data, which can then be compared to predict reliable and integrated information (e.g., in a digital twin) reflecting the actual physical evolution of the installation over the long term (i.e., a century), the ultimate objective being to assess that the repository components/processes are effectively following the expected trajectory towards the closure phase. Data prediction involves using historical data and statistical methods to forecast future outcomes, but it faces challenges such as data quality issues, the complexity of real-world data, and the difficulty in balancing model complexity. Feature selection, overfitting, and the interpretability of complex models further contribute to the complexity. Data reconciliation involves aligning model with in situ data, but a major challenge is to create models capturing all the complexity of the real world, encompassing dynamic variables, as well as the residual and complex near-field effects on measurements (e.g., sensors coupling). This difficulty can result in residual discrepancies between simulated and real data, highlighting the challenge of accurately estimating real-world intricacies within predictive models during the reconciliation process. The paper delves into these challenges for complex and instrumented systems (multi-scale, multi-physics, and multi-media), discussing practical applications of machine and deep learning methods in the case study of thermal loading monitoring of a high-level waste (HLW) cell demonstrator (called ALC1605) implemented at Andra's underground research laboratory.

Long-term trend forecast of chlorophyll-a concentration over eutrophic lakes based on time series decomposition and deep learning algorithm.

Long-term trend forecast of chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) holds significant implications for eutrophication management and pollution control planning on lakes, especially under the background of climate change. However, it is a challenging task due to the mixture of trend, seasonal and residual components in time series and the nonlinear relationships between Chla and the hydro-environmental factors. Here we developed a hybrid approach for long-term trend forecast of Chla in lakes, taking the Lake Taihu as an instantiation case, by the integration of Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), wavelet coherence, and Convolutional Neural Network with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-BiLSTM). The results showed that long-term trends of Chla and the hydro-environmental factors could be effectively separated from the seasonal and residual terms by STL method, thereby enhancing the characterization of long-term variation. The resonance pattern and time lag between Chla and the hydro-environmental factors in the time-frequency domain were accurately identified by wavelet coherence. Chla responded quickly to variations in TP, but showed a time lag response to variations in WT in Lake Taihu. The forecasting method using multivariate and CNN-BiLSTM largely outperformed the other methods for Lake Taihu with regards to R2, RMSE, IOA and peak capture capability, owning to the combination of CNN for extracting local features and the integration of bidirectional propagation mechanism for the acquisition of higher-level features. The proposed hybrid deep learning approach offers an effective solution for the long-term trend forecast of algal blooms in eutrophic lakes and is capable of addressing the complex attributes of hydro-environmental data.

Forecasting and analyzing influenza activity in Hebei Province, China, using a CNN-LSTM hybrid model.

BACKGROUND: Influenza, an acute infectious respiratory disease, presents a significant global health challenge. Accurate prediction of influenza activity is crucial for reducing its impact. Therefore, this study seeks to develop a hybrid Convolution Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory neural network (CNN-LSTM) model to forecast the percentage of influenza-like-illness (ILI) rate in Hebei Province, China. The aim is to provide more precise guidance for influenza prevention and control measures. METHODS: Using ILI% data from 28 national sentinel hospitals in the Hebei Province, spanning from 2010 to 2022, we employed the Python deep learning framework PyTorch to develop the CNN-LSTM model. Additionally, we utilized R and Python to develop four other models commonly used for predicting infectious diseases. After constructing the models, we employed these models to make retrospective predictions, and compared each model's prediction performance using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and other evaluation metrics. RESULTS: Based on historical ILI% data from 28 national sentinel hospitals in Hebei Province, the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Indagate Moving Average (SARIMA), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Convolution Neural Network (CNN), Long Short Term Memory neural network (LSTM) models were constructed. On the testing set, all models effectively predicted the ILI% trends. Subsequently, these models were used to forecast over different time spans. Across various forecasting periods, the CNN-LSTM model demonstrated the best predictive performance, followed by the XGBoost model, LSTM model, CNN model, and SARIMA model, which exhibited the least favorable performance. CONCLUSION: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model had better prediction performances than the SARIMA model, CNN model, LSTM model, and XGBoost model. This hybrid model could provide more accurate influenza activity projections in the Hebei Province.

Trends in diabetic ketoacidosis- and hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: During the pandemic, a notable increase in diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state (HHS), conditions that warrant emergent management, was reported. We aimed to investigate the trend of DKA- and HHS-related mortality and excess deaths during the pandemic. METHODS: Annual age-standardized mortality rates related to DKA and HHS between 2006 and 2021 were estimated using a nationwide database. Forecast analyses based on prepandemic data were conducted to predict the mortality rates during the pandemic. Excess mortality rates were calculated by comparing the observed versus predicted mortality rates. Subgroup analyses of demographic factors were performed. RESULTS: There were 71 575 DKA-related deaths and 8618 HHS-related deaths documented during 2006-2021. DKA, which showed a steady increase before the pandemic, demonstrated a pronounced excess mortality during the pandemic (36.91% in 2020 and 46.58% in 2021) with an annual percentage change (APC) of 29.4% (95% CI: 16.0%-44.0%). Although HHS incurred a downward trend during 2006-2019, the excess deaths in 2020 (40.60%) and 2021 (56.64%) were profound. Pediatric decedents exhibited the highest excess mortality. More than half of the excess deaths due to DKA were coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related (51.3% in 2020 and 63.4% in 2021), whereas only less than a quarter of excess deaths due to HHS were COVID-19 related. A widened racial/ethnic disparity was observed, and females exhibited higher excess mortality than males. CONCLUSIONS: The DKA- and HHS-related excess mortality during the pandemic and relevant disparities emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate the escalated risk in these populations during public health crises.

Influencing factors and risk prediction model for emergence agitation after general anesthesia for primary liver cancer.

BACKGROUND: General anesthesia is commonly used in the surgical management of gastrointestinal tumors; however, it can lead to emergence agitation (EA). EA is a common complication associated with general anesthesia, often characterized by behaviors, such as crying, struggling, and involuntary limb movements in patients. If treatment is delayed, there is a risk of incision cracking and bleeding, which can significantly affect surgical outcomes. Therefore, having a proper understanding of the factors influencing the occurrence of EA and implementing early preventive measures may reduce the incidence of agitation during the recovery phase from general anesthesia, which is beneficial for improving patient prognosis. AIM: To analyze influencing factors and develop a risk prediction model for EA occurrence following general anesthesia for primary liver cancer. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of clinical data from 200 patients who underwent hepatoma resection under general anesthesia at Wenzhou Central Hospital (January 2020 to December 2023) was conducted. Post-surgery, the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale was used to evaluate EA presence, noting EA incidence after general anesthesia. Patients were categorized by EA presence postoperatively, and the influencing factors were analyzed using logistic regression. A nomogram-based risk prediction model was constructed and evaluated for differentiation and fit using receiver operating characteristics and calibration curves. RESULTS: EA occurred in 51 (25.5%) patients. Multivariate analysis identified advanced age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade III, indwelling catheter use, and postoperative pain as risk factors for EA (P < 0.05). Conversely, postoperative analgesia was a protective factor against EA (P < 0.05). The area under the curve of the nomogram was 0.972 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.947-0.997] for the training set and 0.979 (95%CI: 0.951-1.000) for the test set. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fit (χ 2 = 5.483, P = 0.705), and calibration curves showed agreement between predicted and actual EA incidence. CONCLUSION: Age, ASA grade, catheter use, postoperative pain, and analgesia significantly influence EA occurrence. A nomogram constructed using these factors demonstrates strong predictive accuracy.

Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028. METHODS: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers. RESULTS: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices. CONCLUSION: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.

Do OPEC+ policies help predict the oil price: A novel news-based predictor.

The OPEC+, composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, exerts considerable influence over the global crude oil market. However, existing literature lacks a comprehensive application of this factor in oil price forecasting, primarily due to the complexity of measuring such policy evolutions. To address this research gap, this study develops a news-based OPEC+ policy index based on text mining methods for comprehensive analysis and forecasting of the oil price. First, by crawling and mining news headlines related to OPEC+ production decisions, a dynamic and high-frequency (weekly) OPEC+ policy index is established. Second, the linear and nonlinear relationship between the proposed OPEC+ policy index and the WTI crude oil futures price is thoroughly examined, assessing the potential predictive power of the index in explaining the movements of the crude oil price. Third, the forecasting efficacy of the constructed index on the oil price is rigorously evaluated across eight econometric and machine learning models. Key findings include: (1) The proposed weekly OPEC+ policy index demonstrates strong concordance with OPEC+ production change decisions, exhibiting notable peaks and troughs corresponding to OPEC+ Ministerial Meetings. (2) The relationship analysis demonstrates a strong linear and nonlinear association between the proposed OPEC+ policy index and the crude oil price. (3) For oil price prediction, models incorporating our proposed OPEC+ policy index demonstrate superior performance compared to models without this index. In particular, the index exhibits a more significant predictive effect within three-week forecasting horizons and performs exceptionally well during periods of pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, the OPEC+ policy index also exhibits a significant predictive effect on the daily crude oil price and natural gas price, further confirming the robust and powerful forecasting capability of this index within the energy system.

Forecasting rheumatoid arthritis patient arrivals by including meteorological factors and air pollutants.

The burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has gradually elevated, increasing the need for medical resource redistribution. Forecasting RA patient arrivals can be helpful in managing medical resources. However, no relevant studies have been conducted yet. This study aims to construct a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a deep learning model recently developed for novel data processing, to forecast RA patient arrivals considering meteorological factors and air pollutants and compares this model with traditional methods. Data on RA patients, meteorological factors and air pollutants from 2015 to 2022 were collected and normalized to construct moving average (MA)- and autoregressive (AR)-based and LSTM models. After data normalization, the root mean square error (RMSE) was adopted to evaluate models' forecast ability. A total of 2422 individuals were enrolled. Not using the environmental data, the RMSEs of the MA- and AR-based models' test sets are 0.131, 0.132, and 0.117 when the training set: test set ratio is 2:1, 3:1, and 7:1, while they are 0.110, 0.130, and 0.112 for the univariate LSTM models. Considering meteorological factors and air pollutants, the RMSEs of the MA- and AR-based model test sets were 0.142, 0.303, and 0.164 when the training set: test set ratio is 2:1, 3:1, and 7:1, while they were 0.108, 0.119, and 0.109 for the multivariable LSTM models. Our study demonstrated that LSTM models can forecast RA patient arrivals more accurately than MA- and AR-based models for datasets of all three sizes. Considering the meteorological factors and air pollutants can further improve the forecasting ability of the LSTM models. This novel method provides valuable information for medical management, the optimization of medical resource redistribution, and the alleviation of resource shortages.

Process-Informed Subsampling Improves Subseasonal Rainfall Forecasts in Central America.

Subseasonal rainfall forecast skill is critical to support preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes. We assess how a process-informed evaluation, which subsamples forecasting model members based on their ability to represent potential predictors of rainfall, can improve monthly rainfall forecasts within Central America in the following month, using Costa Rica and Guatemala as test cases. We generate a constrained ensemble mean by subsampling 130 members from five dynamic forecasting models in the C3S multimodel ensemble based on their representation of both (a) zonal wind direction and (b) Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at the time of initialization. Our results show in multiple months and locations increased mean squared error skill by 0.4 and improved detection rates of rainfall extremes. This method is transferrable to other regions driven by slowly-changing processes. Process-informed subsampling is successful because it identifies members that fail to represent the entire rainfall distribution when wind/SST error increases.

Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America.

Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.

The Future of Total Elbow Arthroplasty: A Statistical Forecast Model for Germany.

This study provides a statistical forecast for the development of total elbow arthroplasties (TEAs) in Germany until 2045. The authors used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson model to forecast trends in total elbow arthroplasty based on demographic information and official procedure statistics. They predict a significant increase in total elbow joint replacements, with a higher prevalence among women than men. Comprehensive national data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) were used to quantify TEA's total number and incidence rates. Poisson regression, exponential smoothing with Error-Trend-Seasonality, and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were used to predict developments in the total number of surgeries until 2045. Overall, the number of TEAs is projected to increase continuously from 2021 to 2045. This will result in a total number of 982 (TEAs) in 2045 of mostly elderly patients above 80 years. Notably, female patients will receive TEAs 7.5 times more often than men. This is likely influenced by demographic and societal factors such as an ageing population, changes in healthcare access and utilization, and advancements in medical technology. Our projection emphasises the necessity for continuous improvements in surgical training, implant development, and rehabilitation protocols.

Identifying Weekly Trajectories of Pain Severity Using Daily Data From an mHealth Study: Cluster Analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic pain experience variability in their trajectories of pain severity. Previous studies have explored pain trajectories by clustering sparse data; however, to understand daily pain variability, there is a need to identify clusters of weekly trajectories using daily pain data. Between-week variability can be explored by quantifying the week-to-week movement between these clusters. We propose that future work can use clusters of pain severity in a forecasting model for short-term (eg, daily fluctuations) and longer-term (eg, weekly patterns) variability. Specifically, future work can use clusters of weekly trajectories to predict between-cluster movement and within-cluster variability in pain severity. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to understand clusters of common weekly patterns as a first stage in developing a pain-forecasting model. METHODS: Data from a population-based mobile health study were used to compile weekly pain trajectories (n=21,919) that were then clustered using a k-medoids algorithm. Sensitivity analyses tested the impact of assumptions related to the ordinal and longitudinal structure of the data. The characteristics of people within clusters were examined, and a transition analysis was conducted to understand the movement of people between consecutive weekly clusters. RESULTS: Four clusters were identified representing trajectories of no or low pain (1714/21,919, 7.82%), mild pain (8246/21,919, 37.62%), moderate pain (8376/21,919, 38.21%), and severe pain (3583/21,919, 16.35%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the 4-cluster solution, and the resulting clusters were similar to those in the main analysis, with at least 85% of the trajectories belonging to the same cluster as in the main analysis. Male participants spent longer (participant mean 7.9, 95% bootstrap CI 6%-9.9%) in the no or low pain cluster than female participants (participant mean 6.5, 95% bootstrap CI 5.7%-7.3%). Younger people (aged 17-24 y) spent longer (participant mean 28.3, 95% bootstrap CI 19.3%-38.5%) in the severe pain cluster than older people (aged 65-86 y; participant mean 9.8, 95% bootstrap CI 7.7%-12.3%). People with fibromyalgia (participant mean 31.5, 95% bootstrap CI 28.5%-34.4%) and neuropathic pain (participant mean 31.1, 95% bootstrap CI 27.3%-34.9%) spent longer in the severe pain cluster than those with other conditions, and people with rheumatoid arthritis spent longer (participant mean 7.8, 95% bootstrap CI 6.1%-9.6%) in the no or low pain cluster than those with other conditions. There were 12,267 pairs of consecutive weeks that contributed to the transition analysis. The empirical percentage remaining in the same cluster across consecutive weeks was 65.96% (8091/12,267). When movement between clusters occurred, the highest percentage of movement was to an adjacent cluster. CONCLUSIONS: The clusters of pain severity identified in this study provide a parsimonious description of the weekly experiences of people with chronic pain. These clusters could be used for future study of between-cluster movement and within-cluster variability to develop accurate and stakeholder-informed pain-forecasting tools.

Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.

This study aims to explore the application value of the Bayesian Time Structure Sequence (BSTS) model in estimating the acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) epidemics. The reported AHC cases spanning from January 2011 to October 2022 in China were collated. Utilizing R software, the BSTS and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were constructed using the data from January 2011 to December 2021. The prediction effect of both models was compared using the data from January to October 2022, and finally the AHC incidence from November 2022 to December 2023 was predicted. The results indicated that forecast errors under the BSTS model were lower than those under the ARIMA model. The actual AHC incidence in July 2022 from the ARIMA model deviated from the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the predicted value. However, the observed AHC incidence from the BSTS model fell within the 95% CI of the predicted value. Notably, the BSTS model predicted 26,474 new AHC cases in China from November 2022 to December 2023, exhibiting better prediction performance compared to the ARIMA model. This indicates that the BSTS model possesses a high application value for forecasting the epidemic trends of AHC, making it a valuable tool for disease surveillance and prevention strategies.

Application of multimodal ultrasonography to predicting the acute kidney injury risk of patients with sepsis: artificial intelligence approach.

The occurrence of acute kidney injury in sepsis represents a common complication in hospitalized and critically injured patients, which is usually associated with an inauspicious prognosis. Thus, additional consequences, for instance, the risk of developing chronic kidney disease, can be coupled with significantly higher mortality. To intervene in advance in high-risk patients, improve poor prognosis, and further enhance the success rate of resuscitation, a diagnostic grading standard of acute kidney injury is employed to quantify. In the article, an artificial intelligence-based multimodal ultrasound imaging technique is conceived by incorporating conventional ultrasound, ultrasonography, and shear wave elastography examination approaches. The acquired focal lesion images in the kidney lumen are mapped into a knowledge map and then injected into feature mining of a multicenter clinical dataset to accomplish risk prediction for the occurrence of acute kidney injury. The clinical decision curve demonstrated that applying the constructed model can help patients whose threshold values range between 0.017 and 0.89 probabilities. Additionally, the metrics of model sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve (AUC) are computed as 67.9%, 82.48%, 76.86%, and 0.692%, respectively, which confirms that multimodal ultrasonography not only improves the diagnostic sensitivity of the constructed model but also dramatically raises the risk prediction capability, thus illustrating that the predictive model possesses promising validity and accuracy metrics.

Forecast models for start and peak dates of Poaceae pollen season in Tétouan (NW Morocco) using multiple regression analysis.

Poaceae pollen is one of the most widespread sources of aeroallergens in the world. The aim of this study is to build predictive models for the pollen season start day (PSsd) and peak dates of the Poaceae pollen season and thus give an overview of the climatic parameters that have the greatest influence. In Tétouan, sampling was carried out using a volumetric spore trap of the Burkard Hirst type. The relationships between the PSsd, peak dates and meteorological parameters were determined using correlation analysis. The models were constructed using multiple regression analysis with data from 2008 to 2019 and tested on data from 2022. The PSsd was especially significantly influenced by minimum temperature during winter and precipitation in the autumn of the previous year. The peak dates were significantly correlated with precipitation in January, March and April, but not with temperature. Three models were obtained for each of the season's parameters; the most accurate model for the PSsd explained a variability of 61% and includes as main predictors rainfall from the autumn of the previous year and the mean daily average temperature from 23 February to 8 March. The two most efficient peak dates models included precipitation in January and April as the main predictor variables, and explained greater variability (87 and 88%). Precipitation in autumn and the mean daily and the sum of minimum temperature in winter, showed significant decreasing tendencies. However, the PSsd trend delay was not statistically significant. This study draws the importance of the weather during preseason for grass pollen production and emphasises the usefulness of the models for allergic patients to take preventive measures and for healthcare professionals in allergy therapy.

Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Analyzing venous thromboembolism risk in malignant tumors: thromboelastogram and coagulation factors study.

Aim: This retrospective clinical study was designed to examine the predictive value of thromboelastography (TEG) combined with coagulation function for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients with cancer. Materials & methods: Among 215 patients admitted between May 2020 and January 2022, 39 (18.14%) were diagnosed with VTE during hospitalization. Results: Significant differences were found in D-dimer, ATIII and TEG parameters (maximum amplitude and coagulation index) between VTE-positive and VTE-negative patients (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed tumor node metastasis stage, concomitant infection, smoking history and D-dimer as independently associated with VTE. The constructed model and D-dimer areas under the curve were 0.809 and 0.764, respectively. Conclusion: TEG parameters were not significantly predictive indicators for VTE, with D-dimer remaining a key predictor.

[Box: see text].