Impact of National Immunization Strategies on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases - China, 1950-2021.

What is already known about this topic?: The incidences of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) included in the Expanded Program on Immunization in China have decreased significantly in recent decades. What is added by this report?: This study summarizes the national incidences of nine VPDs and the seroprevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) under different immunization strategies from 1950 through 2021 in China. The sharpest decreases in VPD incidence and under-5-year HBsAg seroprevalence occurred during the latest stage of the National Immunization Program. The decreases in VPD incidence were most prominent among children under five years of age. What are the implications for public health practice?: These findings provide valuable insights for vaccine value assessment and emphasize the importance of implementing immunization strategies in targeted populations.

Impacts of socioeconomic and environmental factors on neoplasms incidence rates using machine learning and GIS: a cross-sectional study in Iran.

Neoplasm is an umbrella term used to describe either benign or malignant conditions. The correlations between socioeconomic and environmental factors and the occurrence of new-onset of neoplasms have already been demonstrated in a body of research. Nevertheless, few studies have specifically dealt with the nature of relationship, significance of risk factors, and geographic variation of them, particularly in low- and middle-income communities. This study, thus, set out to (1) analyze spatiotemporal variations of the age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) of neoplasms in Iran throughout five time periods, (2) investigate relationships between a collection of environmental and socioeconomic indicators and the AAIR of neoplasms all over the country, and (3) evaluate geographical alterations in their relative importance. Our cross-sectional study design was based on county-level data from 2010 to 2020. AAIR of neoplasms data was acquired from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). HotSpot analyses and Anselin Local Moran's I indices were deployed to precisely identify AAIR of neoplasms high- and low-risk clusters. Multi-scale geographically weight regression (MGWR) analysis was worked out to evaluate the association between each explanatory variable and the AAIR of neoplasms. Utilizing random forests (RF), we also examined the relationships between environmental (e.g., UV index and PM2.5 concentration) and socioeconomic (e.g., Gini coefficient and literacy rate) factors and AAIR of neoplasms. AAIR of neoplasms displayed a significant increasing trend over the study period. According to the MGWR, the only factor that significantly varied spatially and was associated with the AAIR of neoplasms in Iran was the UV index. A good accuracy RF model was confirmed for both training and testing data with correlation coefficients R2 greater than 0.91 and 0.92, respectively. UV index and Gini coefficient ranked the highest variables in the prediction of AAIR of neoplasms, based on the relative influence of each variable. More research using machine learning approaches taking the advantages of considering all possible determinants is required to assess health strategies outcomes and properly formulate policy planning.

Regression models for average hazard.

Limitations of using the traditional Cox's hazard ratio for summarizing the magnitude of the treatment effect on time-to-event outcomes have been widely discussed, and alternative measures that do not have such limitations are gaining attention. One of the alternative methods recently proposed, in a simple 2-sample comparison setting, uses the average hazard with survival weight (AH), which can be interpreted as the general censoring-free person-time incidence rate on a given time window. In this paper, we propose a new regression analysis approach for the AH with a truncation time τ. We investigate 3 versions of AH regression analysis, assuming (1) independent censoring, (2) group-specific censoring, and (3) covariate-dependent censoring. The proposed AH regression methods are closely related to robust Poisson regression. While the new approach needs to require a truncation time τ explicitly, it can be more robust than Poisson regression in the presence of censoring. With the AH regression approach, one can summarize the between-group treatment difference in both absolute difference and relative terms, adjusting for covariates that are associated with the outcome. This property will increase the likelihood that the treatment effect magnitude is correctly interpreted. The AH regression approach can be a useful alternative to the traditional Cox's hazard ratio approach for estimating and reporting the magnitude of the treatment effect on time-to-event outcomes.

Is the incidence rate of colorectal cancer increasing in Mozambique?

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a significant global health concern, ranking as the third most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. However, in Africa, CRC is the fifth most common invasive malignancy. Limited data hinder our understanding of the evolving burden of CRC in sub-Saharan Africa. This study explores CRC trends in Mozambique, utilising data from population-based oncological registries. Methods: CRC data were gathered from Beira and Maputo population-based cancer registries, along with supplementary information from pathology-based and hospital-based registries. Comparative analyses were performed across different time periods, focusing on trends and epidemiological characteristics. Results: Incidence rates of CRC in Maputo and Beira were relatively low historically. However, data from recent years showed an increase, especially in age groups above 50. Analyses from pathology-based and hospital-based registries affirmed the rising trend. The age-standardised incidence rate in Maputo (2015-2017) was 3.17 for males and 2.55 for females. Beira exhibited increasing rates between 2009 and 2020, particularly in individuals aged 50 and above. Conclusion: The study reveals an emerging burden of CRC in Mozambique, challenging the perception of low incidence. The rising trend underscores the necessity for tailored interventions, emphasizing early diagnosis, preventive strategies, and investments in healthcare infrastructure to address the increasing CRC burden in the region.

Quantification of the effect of vaccination on the control of horizontal transmission of Mycoplasma synoviae under field conditions.

Beside biosecurity, vaccination is important for Mycoplasma synoviae (MS) control as it has shown to contribute to the reduction of economic impact and experimentally also lessens horizontal transmission. In this study the effect of MS live vaccination on horizontal transmission was quantified under field conditions by analysing four-year MS monitoring data from non-MS-vaccinated broiler and layer breeders and MS-vaccinated broiler breeders with good biosecurity in single-age housing systems. Flocks were monitored at 20 and 30 weeks of age and every 12 weeks thereafter. Every sampling sixty blood samples or 24 tracheal swabs were tested using rapid plate agglutination test and ELISA serially or MS DIVA PCR respectively. The MS incidence rate was calculated and the association with vaccination was analysed by logistic regression. The average MS incidence rate per 1000 weeks was 11.6 cases for non-MS-vaccinated broiler breeders and decreased from 29.6 to 5.6 cases with successive vaccinated production cycles. In non-MS-vaccinated layer breeders it was 3.6. A significant negative association with MS incidence was found after vaccinating four to six successive production cycles compared to non-MS-vaccinated or only one production cycle vaccinated breeders (odds-ratio (OR) = 0.23, P = 0.05 & OR = 0.12, P = 0.01, respectively). A significant negative association with MS in non-MS-vaccinated layer breeders (OR = 0.29, P = 0.00) was observed compared to non-MS-vaccinated broiler breeders possibly due to more controlled contact-structures within the layer breeder industry. The results suggest that vaccination and control of contacts contribute to the reduction of between-farm MS transmission.

Incidence rate of venous thrombosis in women switching combined oral contraceptives: a cohort study.

Background: The incidence rate of venous thrombosis (VT) in women switching combined oral contraceptives (COCs) is unknown. Objectives: We hypothesize that women switching COCs may have a similar increased incidence rate of VT as women who start COCs. Switching means starting with a new COC, which may biologically approximate starting. Methods: We conducted a cohort study with data from the Netherlands and Denmark. First, we identified starters who were defined as women who did not use COCs in the 2 years prior to the start of their first COC prescription within the study period. Switchers were a subset of COC starters who redeemed a COC formulation different from their initial COC during follow-up but not longer than 12 months after starting. We estimated incidence rate ratios (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]) of VT with 95% CIs among COC switchers as compared with COC starters using Poisson regression adjusted for age, COC progestogen generation, and preexisting obesity. Results: In both countries, we found an increased risk of VT among switchers as compared with starters during the first 3 months of the follow-up (aIRR = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.22-2.56 in the Netherlands and aIRR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04-2.16 in Denmark). Conclusion: Switchers, particularly in the first 3 months after switching, may experience a renewed starter effect thereby increasing the risk of VT.

Prevalence and incidence rates of tuberculosis in people with HIV during the coronavirus 2019 pandemic: a single center retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant risk to people with HIV (PWH), with heightened incidence and prevalence rates, especially in countries with a high TB burden. This study assesses the prevalence and incidence rates of TB among PWH during the COVID-19 pandemic, and on treatment outcomes in TB-HIV co-infections. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted at Suddhavej Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Mahasarakham University, Maha Sarakham, Thailand, from January 2020 to September 2023, involving newly diagnosed adult PWH. Data were collected on TB prevalence and incidence rates, with TB cases categorized as definite or possible. The primary outcomes were TB prevalence and incidence rates per 100,000 person-years of follow-up. RESULTS: Among 171 newly diagnosed PWH, the prevalence of TB was 5.85%, with an incidence rate of 4,568.71 per 100,000 person-years. All but one TB cases were diagnosed before antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. There was no incident TB during the follow-up period during ART. Nearly half of the TB cases required therapeutic trials without microbiological confirmation. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed a high prevalence and incidence rate of TB among PWH during the COVID-19 pandemic, comparable to pre-pandemic rates in Thailand. The findings highlight the necessity of comprehensive TB screening prior to ART initiation and the cautious implementation of universal TB preventive therapy. The use of molecular diagnostics, in addition to symptom screening, can enhance TB diagnosis among PWH, though accessibility remains an issue in many regions.

Incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke and its associated factors in a tertiary care center in Thailand: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic stroke (IS) is one of the leading causes of death among non-communicable diseases in Thailand. Patients who have survived an IS are at an increased risk of developing recurrent IS, which can result in worse outcomes and post-stroke complications. OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to investigate the incidence of recurrent IS among patients with first-ever IS during a one-year follow-up period and to determine its associated risk factors. METHODS: Adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) who were hospitalized at the Stroke Center, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in Bangkok, Thailand, due to first-ever IS between January and December 2019 and had at least one follow-up visit during the one-year follow-up period were included in this retrospective cohort study. IS diagnosis was confirmed by neurologists and imaging. The log-rank test was used to determine the event-free survival probabilities of recurrent IS in each risk factor. RESULTS: Of 418 patients hospitalized due to first-ever IS in 2019, 366 (87.6%) were included in the analysis. During a total of 327.2 person-years of follow-up, 25 (6.8%) patients developed recurrent IS, accounting for an incidence rate of 7.7 per 100 person-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2-11.3). The median (interquartile range) time of recurrence was 35 (16-73) days. None of the 47 patients with atrial fibrillation developed recurrent IS. The highest incidence rate of recurrent IS occurred within 1 month after the first episode (34 per 100 person-years) compared to other follow-up periods. Patients with small vessel occlusion and large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) constituted the majority of patients in the recurrent IS episode (48% and 40%, respectively), with LAA exhibiting a higher recurrence rate (13.5%). Additionally, smoking status was found to be associated with an increased risk of recurrence. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of the recurrence was moderate in our tertiary care setting, with a decreasing trend over time after the first episode. The various subtypes of IS and smoking status can lead to differences in event-free survival probabilities.

Incidence rate of mortality and its predictors among tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among HIV-infected adults and children globally. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia. Methods: Extensive database searching was done via PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Google from the time of idea conception on March 1, 2023, to the last search via Google on March 31, 2023. A meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to determine the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients. Heterogeneity was handled using subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis. Results: Out of 2,100 records, 18 articles were included, with 26,291 total patients. The pooled incidence rate of mortality among TB/HIV patients was 12.49 (95% CI: 9.24-15.74) per 100 person-years observation (PYO); I2 = 96.9%. The mortality rate among children and adults was 5.10 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 2.15-8.01; I2 = 84.6%) and 15.78 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 10.84-20.73; I2 = 97.7%), respectively. Age ≥ 45 (pooled hazard ratios (PHR) 2.58, 95% CI: 2.00- 3.31), unemployed (PHR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.37-3.46), not HIV-disclosed (PHR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.65-4.70), bedridden (PHR 5.89, 95% CI: 3.43-10.12), OI (PHR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.16-5.66), WHO stage IV (PHR 3.16, 95% CI: 2.18-4.58), BMI < 18.5 (PHR 4.11, 95% CI: 2.28-7.40), anemia (PHR 4.43, 95% CI: 2.73-7.18), EPTB 5.78, 95% CI: 2.61-12.78 significantly affected the mortality. The effect of TB on mortality was 1.95 times higher (PHR 1.95, 95% CI: 1.19-3.20; I2 = 0) than in TB-free individuals. Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia was higher compared with many African countries. Many clinical factors were identified as significant risk factors for mortality. Therefore, TB/HIV program managers and clinicians need to design an intervention early.

Changing trends in Japanese spotted fever epidemiology in Shimane, Japan: A two-decade retrospective study with emphasis on the COVID-19 pandemic era.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study is to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of Japanese Spotted Fever (JSF) cases reported through the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID) system in Shimane Prefecture, Japan, from 2000 to 2022, encompassing the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on JSF cases reported to the NESID system in Shimane Prefecture between 2000 and 2022. Population data were obtained from the Statistical Information of Shimane. Poisson regression analysis was employed to examine the relationship between the annual prevalence rate of JSF and the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 301 JSF cases were analyzed during the study period. Even the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, a gradual and significant increase in the prevalence rate was observed (prevalence rate = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05; p = 0.01), and a rapid increase was noted since 2020 (prevalence rate = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.39-1.78; p < 0.01). The slope during the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period was estimated to have significantly increased (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that while the prevalence rate of JSF had exhibited a slight increase in the years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, it demonstrated a more significant increase following the pandemic in Shimane Prefecture. JSF has increased since 2020 and may be linked to COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on global health, underscoring the importance of investigating the prevalence of specific infectious diseases and other health-related indicators to accurately assess the pandemic's impact.

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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the incidence rate of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) in the male newborns in the Ningxia region and establish a critical threshold for screening DMD in newborns to distinguish between the normal population and affected individuals. METHODS: A total of 10 000 male newborns were screened using immunofluorescence analysis of creatine kinase isoenzyme concentrations in heel spot dried blood specimens. Newborns with the concentrations higher than the critical threshold were recalled for serum creatine kinase measurements. Genetic testing was performed to confirm diagnosis in cases showing abnormalities. RESULTS: Among the screened 10 000 male newborns, two were confirmed to have DMD through genetic testing, resulting in a preliminary estimated incidence rate of 1/5 000 for male newborns in the Ningxia region. The critical threshold for creatine kinase isoenzyme concentration in newborns in this region was determined to be 468.57 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for DMD in newborns is feasible in the Ningxia region. Early screening, diagnosis, and treatment of DMD can improve the quality of life for affected individuals and help families make informed decisions regarding further pregnancies.

Impact of screening and doxycycline prevention on the syphilis epidemic among men who have sex with men in British Columbia: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in British Columbia (BC) are disproportionately affected by infectious syphilis and HIV. In this study, we developed a co-interaction model and evaluated the impact and effectiveness of possible interventions among different MSM subgroups on the syphilis epidemic. Methods: We designed a deterministic compartmental model, which stratified MSM by HIV status and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (HIV-PrEP) usage into (1) HIV-negative/unaware MSM (HIV-PrEP not recommended, not on HIV-PrEP), (2) HIV-negative/unaware MSM with HIV-PrEP recommended (not on HIV-PrEP), (3) HIV-negative/unaware MSM actively on HIV-PrEP, and (4) MSM diagnosed with HIV. We estimated the effect of scaling up syphilis testing frequency from Status Quo to six-, four-, and three-months, increasing the percentage of MSM using doxycycline prevention (Doxy-P) to 25%, 50%, and 100% of the target level, and a combination of both among subgroups (2)-(4). We also assessed the impact of these interventions on the syphilis incidence rates from 2020 to 2034 in comparison to the Status Quo scenario where no intervention was introduced. Findings: Under the Status Quo scenario, with the expansion of the HIV-PrEP program to improve syphilis testing, the syphilis incidence rate was estimated to peak at 16.1 [Credible Interval (CI):14.2-17.9] per 1,000 person-years (PYs) in 2023 and decrease to 6.7 (CI:3.8-10.9) per 1,000 PYs by 2034. The syphilis incidence rate in 2034 was estimated at 0.7 (0.3-1.3) per 1,000 PYs if MSM diagnosed with HIV could be tested every four months, and at 1.5 (0.7-3.0) per 1,000 PYs if HIV-negative/unaware MSM actively on HIV-PrEP could be tested every three months. By achieving 100% of the target coverage of Doxy-P, the syphilis incidence rate was estimated at 1.4 (0.5-3.4) if focusing on MSM diagnosed with HIV, and 2.6 (1.2-5.1) per 1,000 PYs if focusing on HIV-negative/unaware MSM actively on HIV-PrEP. Under the combined interventions, the syphilis incidence rate could be as low as 0.0 (0.0-0.1) and 0.8 (0.3-1.8) per 1,000 PYs, respectively. Interpretation: The HIV-PrEP program in BC plays a crucial role in increasing syphilis testing frequency among high-risk MSM and reducing syphilis transmission among this group. In addition, introducing Doxy-P can be an effective complementary strategy to minimize syphilis incidence, especially among MSM diagnosed with HIV. Funding: This work was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Incidence and risk factors of neonatal hypothermia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: Hypothermia poses a threat to the health and lives of newborns. Therefore, it is essential to identify the factors that influence neonatal hypothermia and provide targeted intervention suggestions for clinical practice to reduce its occurrence. METHODS: We conducted a literature search to identify factors influencing neonatal hypothermia and performed a meta-analysis to determine the prevalence of neonatal hypothermia and its associated factors. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of cohort and case-control studies, while the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) was used to evaluate the quality of cross-sectional studies. RESULTS: Eighteen studies involving 44 532 newborns from 13 countries were included. The incidence of neonatal hypothermia was 52.5% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.68). Factors such as no skin-to-skin contact, prematurity, low birth weight, delayed breastfeeding, asphyxiation and resuscitation after birth, low APGAR score, not wearing a cap, and caesarean section were found to affect neonatal hypothermia. CONCLUSION: Multiple factors influence neonatal hypothermia, and clinicians can utilise these factors to develop targeted intervention measures to prevent and reduce the incidence of neonatal hypothermia.

Occupational accidents in Slovak Military Forests and Estates: incidence, timing, and trends over 10 years.

Introduction: Forestry provides a wide range of employment opportunities worldwide and is seen as one of the high-risk industries in terms of occupational accidents. Objectives: The submitted study analyzed the injury rate in the Military Forests and Estates of the Slovak Republic (62.6 thousand ha) between 2013 and 2022. Methods: The data analyses included regression and correlation analyses, χ2 tests to analyze the relationships between studied variables, and incidence rates. Results: During the observed period, employees suffered 26 occupational accidents, of which 19.2% were light, 57.7% were registered, 23.1% were severe, and 0% were fatal. For every 1 million m3 of harvested timber, 7.7 accidents occurred. The incidence rate during the observed period was 672.1/100,000 employees. The highest proportion of accidents was in the age group 51-60 years and in employees with the lowest length of work experience <5 years. Regarding time, the highest proportion of occupational accidents occurred between 8:01 and 10:00 AM (53.8%) and day-wise on Thursdays (46.2%). The highest proportion of accidents occurred among forest workers (65.3%) during pruning and silviculture activities (42.3%). The most common injury site was forest stands (65.3%). Superficial injuries (34.6%) were the most common, mainly affecting the lower limbs (50%). The most frequent material agents causing the accidents were work and transport areas as sources of worker fall (38.5%), and the most frequent reason for an accident to occur was the lack of personal requirements for proper work performance (92.4%), whereas only (3.8%) of accidents occurred due to the use of forbidden or hazardous working procedures. Conclusion: The presented study identified the most vulnerable worker groups and provided an overview of the overall injury rate at the state forest company in Slovakia. The documentation can be incorporated into the safety strategies of forest enterprises.

Gender Differences in Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Acute Myocardial Infarction in the Small Island Developing State of Barbados.

Objective To determine trends, identify predictors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and mortality, and explore performance metrics for AMI care in Barbados. Methods Data on all cases diagnosed with AMI were collected by the Barbados National Registry for Non-Communicable Diseases (BNR) from the island's only tertiary hospital, the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, and the National Vital Registration Department. Participants who survived hospital admission were then followed up at 28 days and one year post event via telephone survey and retrieval of death certificates. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated. Determinants of mortality at 28 days were examined in multivariable logistic regression models. Median and interquartile ranges (IQR) were calculated for performance metrics (e.g., time from pain onset to reperfusion). Results In a 10-year period between 2010 and 2019, 4,065 cases of myocardial infarction were recorded. The median age of the sample was 73 years (IQR: 61,83), and approximately half (47%) were female. Over a 10-year period, standardized incidence increased in women on average yearly by three per 100,000 (95% CI: 1 to 6; p=0.02), while in men, the average increase per year was six per 100,000 (95% CI: 4 to 8; p<0.001). There was no increase in 28-day mortality in women; mortality in men increased each year by 2.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.4 to 4.5; p=0.02). The time from arrival at the hospital to the ECG was 44 minutes IQR (20,113). Conclusion AMI incidence and mortality are increasing in Barbados, and men have a higher velocity of mortality rate increase than women, which contradicts global data.

Is a tiered restrictions system an effective intervention for COVID-19 control? Results from Portugal, November-December 2020.

BACKGROUND: In November 2020, similar to other European countries, Portugal implemented a tiered restrictions system to control the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to compare the COVID-19 growth rate across tiers to assess the effect of a tiered restrictions system in Portugal, using models with different times between tiers assessment. Our hypothesis was that being in a higher tier brings a faster deceleration in the growth rate than being in a lower tier. METHODS: The national database of notified COVID-19 cases and publicly available data were used to analyse the effect of the tiered restrictions system on the COVID-19 incidence growth rate. The tiers were based on the European Centre for Disease Control risk classification: moderate, high, very and extremely high. We used a generalised mixed-effects regression model to estimate the growth rate ratio (GRR) for each tier, comparing the growth rates of higher tiers using moderate tier as reference. Three models were fitted using different times between tiers assessment, separated by 14 days. RESULTS: We included 156 034 cases. Very high tier was the most frequent combination in all the three moments assessed (21.2%), and almost 50% of the municipalities never changed tier during the study period. Immediately after the tiers implementation, a reduction was identified in the municipalities in high tier (GRR high tier: 0.90 [95%CI: 0.79; 1.02]) and very high tier (GRR very high tier: 0.68 [95%CI: 0.61; 0.77]), however with some imprecision in the 95% confidence interval for the high tier. A reduction in very high tier growth rate was identified two weeks (GRR: 0.79 [95%CI: 0.71; 0.88]) and four weeks (GRR: 0.77 [95%CI: 0.74; 0.82]) after the implementation, compared to moderate tier. In high tier, a reduction was also identified in both times, although smaller. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a reduction in the growth rate in very high tier after the tiered restriction system was implemented, but we also observed a lag between tiered restriction system implementation and the onset of consequent effects. This could suggest the importance of early implementation of stricter measures for pandemic control. Thus, studies analysing a broader period of time are needed.

The Impact of Adjusting for Hysterectomy Prevalence on Cervical Cancer Incidence Rates and Trends Among Women Aged 30 Years and Older - United States, 2001-2019.

Hysterectomy protects against cervical cancer when the cervix is removed. However, measures of cervical cancer incidence often fail to exclude women with a hysterectomy from the population at risk denominator, underestimating and distorting disease burden. In this study, we estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to remove the women who were not at risk of cervical cancer from the denominator and combined these estimates with the United States Cancer Statistics data. From these data, we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for women aged >30 years from 2001-2019, adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence. We calculated the difference between unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates and examined trends by histology, age, race and ethnicity, and geographic region using Joinpoint regression. The hysterectomy-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate from 2001-2019 was 16.7 per 100,000 women-34.6% higher than the unadjusted rate. After adjustment, incidence rates were higher by approximately 55% among Black women, 56% among those living in the East South Central division, and 90% among women aged 70-79 and >80 years. These findings underscore the importance of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence to avoid underestimating cervical cancer incidence rates and masking disparities by age, race, and geographic region.

Global, Regional and National Burden of Human Cystic Echinococcosis from 1990 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a neglected tropical parasitic disease that poses huge disease, social and economic burdens worldwide; however, there has been little knowledge on the global morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CE until now. This study aimed to collect the most up-to-date data about the global, regional and national disease burden due to CE from 1990 to 2019 and to project trends in the next 10 years. METHODS: We measured the global, regional and national morbidity, mortality and DALYs of CE from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) data, and we examined the correlation between socioeconomic development levels and the disease burden of CE. In addition, the disease burden due to CE was projected from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CE reduced from 2.65/105 [95% UI: (1.87/105 to 3.7/105)] in 1990 to 2.6/105 [95% UI: (1.72/105 to 3.79/105)] in 2019 (EAPC = -0.18%). The number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate due to CE all showed a tendency to decline from 1990 to 2019. A higher disease burden of CE was measured in women than in men in 2019. There was a significant difference in the ASMR of CE by region according to the socio-demographic index (SDI), and lower burdens of CE were estimated in high-SDI regions. The global ASIR of CE is projected to decline from 2020 to 2030; however, the ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are projected to rise. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of CE remains high, and it is recommended that more health resources are allocated to low-SDI regions, women and the elderly aged 55 to 65 years to reduce the disease burden of CE.

Demographical and Epidemiological Contribution to Cancer Incidence in Delhi and Its Trends from 1991-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer incidences are rising worldwide, and India ranked third globally in cancer incidence as of 2020, according to estimates from GLOBOCAN. The three components that contributed to changes in cancer incidence include cancer-related risk factors, population size, and population structure. The present study aim is to derive the contribution of these factors to cancer incidence and to evaluate their trend from 1991 to 2015. METHODS: The Data were extracted from the Delhi population-based cancer registry published reports. This longstanding registry covers nearly 100% of the Delhi population. The secular trends of cancer incidence from 1991-2015 were assessed for all sites combined as well as top-five cancer sites among males and females. Joinpoint regression and Riskdiff software were performed to assess the trend among the components of cancer incidence change. RESULTS: Both males and females exhibited nearly equal age-standardised incidence rates over 25 years. Albeit, an overall trend in age-standardised rate was not significant for both sexes (0.68% for males and -0.16% for females) when considering all cancer sites combined. Lung, prostate, oral, and gallbladder cancer exhibits a significant rising trend in the age-standardised rates in males while in females only breast and endometrial cancer showed a rising trend. The cancer counts surged by 252% in males and 208.5% in females from 1991 to 2015. The population size component contributed a 180% increase in males and a 170% increase in females, respectively. The site-specific risk changes were more than 100% for the prostate, oral, and gallbladder cancers in males and endometrial cancer in females. The population structure (aging) contributed to rising cancer incidence varying from 35% to 60% in both genders. CONCLUSION: A significant contribution to new cancer cases was observed due to a demographical shift in both population size and structure, in addition to plausible cancer-specific risk factors. This transformation could surge a potential burden on the Delhi healthcare system. Persistent endeavours are essential to expand and enhance the existing cancer care infrastructure to meet the rising demand driven by aging and population growth. Implementing a stringent population policy can help to mitigate the impact of population growth on cancer incidence.

Vaccinated COVID-19 Index Cases Are Less Likely to Transmit SARS-CoV-2 to Their Household Contacts: A Cohort Study.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of index case vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts. In our epidemiological cohort study (May 2022-November 2023), we surveyed registered index case vaccination status and test results for contacts (testing on day 0, and on day 7 for negative contacts) and calculated the secondary attack rate (SAR), i.e., newly infected contacts/susceptible included contacts. The association of the independent variable, index case COVID-19 vaccination (yes/no), with household contact infection was determined using the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). We recorded 181 index cases and 314 contacts, of whom 250 agreed to participate; 16 contacts were excluded upon testing positive on day 0. Of the 234 included contacts, 49.1% were women, and the mean (SD) age was 51.9 (19.8) years. The overall SAR of 37.2% (87/234) was lower in the contacts of both vaccinated index cases (34.9% vs. 63.2%; p = 0.014) and index cases with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection history (27.0% vs. 46.3%; p = 0.002). Index case vaccination showed a protective effect against infection for their household contacts (aOR = 0.21; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.67). The household SAR was high when the Omicron variant circulated. Vaccinated index cases were less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to their contacts.