Benefits of MR-proADM-guided decision-making in the emergency department: clinical and economic evaluation in Italy, Germany, Spain, and the UK.

AIM: In a randomized control trial mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM)-guided decision-making has been proven to safely reduce hospital admissions based on an accurate assessment of disease severity in the Emergency Department (ED). This study aimed to assess the impact of a MR-proADM-Guided Triage (MR-GT) versus standard Hospital Triage (HT) on clinical and economic outcomes in ED patients with suspected infection in Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK, using Patient-Level Data (PLD) from two observational studies. METHODS: PLD was collected from patients enrolled at a Spanish hospital during two observational studies. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of hospitalization. A patient-level simulation model was subsequently developed to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of MR-GT versus HT using results from the statistical analysis and country-specific cost data from the published literature. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. RESULTS: Four hundred seventy-three patients were enrolled in this study. MR-proADM had the strongest association with hospital admission, followed by age and National Early Warning Score (NEWS). In the simulation model, MR-GT was associated with an overall reduction in hospitalization relative to HT, equal to 22.6 percentage points (40.9 vs. 63.5%). In addition, the use of MR-GT would reduce the total hospital cost per patient presenting to the ED with suspected infection by roughly 30%, with a mean cost saving per patient of €626, €1,484, €1,154, and £1,113 in Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK, respectively. The robustness of these findings was confirmed by sensitivity analyses. LIMITATIONS: The statistical analyses were not performed on the same population simulated in the model. Clinical input parameters were assumed to be the same for all countries. CONCLUSIONS: MR-proADM showed to be the main predictor of hospitalization. An MR-proADM decision algorithm provides cost savings in Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK.

Clinical Benefits of Treating Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with iGlarLixi: A Patient-Level Simulation Study.

INTRODUCTION: The fixed-ratio combination of insulin glargine (iGlar) plus lixisenatide (iGlarLixi) has proven efficacious in clinical trials; however, there is limited evidence of its benefits in a variety of real-world patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who present in routine clinical practice. METHODS: A large integrated claims and EHR database was used to identify two real-world (RW) cohorts (ages ≥ 18) with T2DM who were eligible for treatment with iGlarLixi. At baseline, the first cohort (insulin cohort) received insulin with or without oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs), and the second cohort (OAD-only cohort) received OADs only. A Monte Carlo patient-level simulation was applied to each cohort based on treatment strategies and efficacies from the LixiLan-L and LixiLan-O trials to estimate reductions in glycated hemoglobin A1C (A1C) and the percentage achieving age-based A1C goals (≤ 7% for ages < 65 and ≤ 8% for ages ≥ 65) at 30 weeks. RESULTS: The RW insulin (N = 3797) and OAD-only (N = 17,633) cohorts differed considerably in demographics, age, clinical characteristics, baseline A1C levels, and background OAD therapies compared to the populations in the Lixilan-L and Lixilan-O trials. Regardless of the cohort description, A1C goals were achieved among 52.6% vs. 31.6% (p < 0.001) of patients in the iGlarLixi vs. the iGlar arms in the insulin cohort simulation, while A1C goals were achieved among 59.9% vs. 49.3% and 32.8% (p < 0.001) of patients in the OAD-only cohort simulation in the iGlarLixi vs. the iGlar and lixisenatide arms, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of the treatment regimen at baseline (insulin vs. OAD only), this patient-level simulation demonstrated that a greater proportion of patients achieved their A1C goals with iGlarlixi compared to iGlar or lixisenatide alone. These findings suggest that the benefits of iGlarLixi extend to clinically distinct RW populations.

Suprachoroidal Injection of Triamcinolone Acetonide Injectable Suspension for the Treatment of Macular Edema Associated With Uveitis in the United States: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Suprachoroidal injection of triamcinolone acetonide is the first Food and Drug Administration-approved treatment for macular edema associated with uveitis. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing this treatment with best supportive care (BSC) for the management of this indication from US Medicare and commercial payer perspectives. METHODS: A patient-level simulation was developed per the patient characteristics and changes in best-corrected visual acuity letter scores observed in a phase III study of triamcinolone acetonide (PEACHTREE). The wholesale acquisition cost of triamcinolone acetonide was $1650/injection; suprachoroidal injection cost was assumed at $200/injection. Healthcare costs were informed by a US claims-based analysis. Mortality risk associated with severe vision loss and blindness was modeled by applying a hazard ratio to all-cause mortality rates of the US general population. Health-related quality of life weights, obtained from a regression model fitted to the Visual Function Questionnaire-25 data from PEACHTREE, were applied based on the best-corrected visual acuity scores of both eyes. Costs (2020 US dollar) and benefits were discounted at 3% annually. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated over a 10-year horizon. RESULTS: In the base-case, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing triamcinolone acetonide with BSC was $28 479 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The wholesale acquisition cost for triamcinolone acetonide for suprachoroidal use was ∼68%, ∼56%, and ∼27% below the willingness-to-pay thresholds of $150 000, $100 000, and $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Results were robust in sensitivity and scenario analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Triamcinolone acetonide for suprachoroidal use is cost-effective compared with BSC for patients with macular edema associated with uveitis.

Intravenous iron for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in China: a patient-level simulation model and cost-utility analysis comparing ferric derisomaltose with iron sucrose.

OBJECTIVES: Two intravenous (IV) iron formulations, ferric derisomaltose (FDI) and iron sucrose (IS), are currently available for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in China. Clinical studies have demonstrated that FDI has an improved efficacy and safety profile versus IS, while requiring fewer infusions to correct iron deficits. Based on these findings, the present study evaluated the costs and benefits of FDI and IS for the treatment of IDA, from a healthcare system and societal perspective in China. METHODS: A patient-level model was developed to project time to hematological response and incidence of cardiovascular adverse events and hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) associated with FDI and IS over 5 years. Costs included iron acquisition, administration, and adverse event/HSR treatment costs, based on published studies, fee schedules, and a physician survey. Health state utilities associated with adverse events, HSRs, and the number of infusions were obtained from the literature and a time trade-off survey. RESULTS: From a healthcare system perspective, FDI was associated with incremental costs of RMB 1,934 (purchasing power parity USD 462) and incremental quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.078 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) versus IS, yielding an incremental cost-utility ratio of RMB 24,901 (USD 5,949) in the base case scenario. From a societal perspective, FDI was associated with reduced total costs and therefore dominant versus IS. LIMITATIONS: Limitations included the absence of clinical data specific to China and insufficient data to model persistence with treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first cost-utility analysis comparing FDI and IS for the treatment of IDA in China. Based on a patient-level model, FDI was found to improve quality of life and reduce administration and adverse events costs relative to IS. Using the 2020 Chinese gross domestic product per capita of RMB 72,447 (USD 17,307) as a cost-effectiveness threshold, FDI would be considered cost-effective in China.

Ferric derisomaltose (FDI) was approved in February 2021 for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in China and allows for fast iron correction in one visit with a good safety profile. The current standard of care in China is iron sucrose (IS). Clinical and economic decision-making can benefit from having longer-term projections on the benefits and costs of new medications relative to the current standard of care, which is why we conducted the first cost-utility analysis of FDI and IS for China. We developed a patient-level model that captured the effects of the iron formulations on IDA, in addition to incidences of adverse events and hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) associated with either formulation. Costs of the iron formulations, their administration, and of treatments for adverse events and HSR were modeled alongside the quality of life effects of IDA, adverse events, HSRs, and iron infusions. We used published clinical data and Chinese cost data to inform our model. Our results show that FDI was associated with higher quality-adjusted life expectancy than IS, regardless of the perspective of the analysis, and higher total costs from the healthcare system perspective. From a societal perspective, FDI was associated with lower costs due to reduced travel and waiting time and smaller productivity losses given there were fewer appointments. These results imply that FDI is likely good value for money for the healthcare system and indeed cost-saving for society relative to IS, which has so far been the most widely used IV iron treatment in China.

Estimating risk factor progression equations for the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS 90).

OBJECTIVES: To estimate 13 equations that predict clinically plausible risk factor time paths to inform the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model version 2 (UKPDS-OM2). METHODS: Data from 5102 UKPDS participants from the 20-year trial, and the 4031 survivors with 10 years further post-trial follow-up, were used to derive equations for the time paths of 13 clinical risk factors: HbA1c , systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, BMI, micro- or macro-albuminuria, creatinine, heart rate, white blood cell count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filter rate, atrial fibrillation and peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The incidence of events and death predicted by the UKPDS-OM2 when informed by the new risk factor equations was compared with the observed cumulative rates up to 25 years. RESULTS: The new equations were based on 24 years of follow-up and up to 65,252 person-years of data. Women were associated with higher values of all continuous risk factors except for haemoglobin. Older age and higher BMI at diagnosis were associated with higher rates of PVD (HR 1.06 and 1.02), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.10 and 1.08) and micro- or macro-albuminuria (HR 1.01 and 1.18). Smoking was associated with higher rates of developing PVD (HR 2.38) and micro- and macro-albuminuria (HR 1.39). The UKPDS-OM2, informed by the new risk factor equations, predicted event rates for complications and death consistent with those observed. CONCLUSIONS: The new equations allow risk factor time paths beyond observed data, which should improve modelling of long-term health outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes when using the UKPDS-OM2 or other models.

Accurately Reflecting Uncertainty When Using Patient-Level Simulation Models to Extrapolate Clinical Trial Data.

Introduction. Patient-level simulation models facilitate extrapolation of clinical trial data while allowing for heterogeneity, prior history, and nonlinearity. However, combining different types of uncertainty around within-trial and extrapolated results remains challenging. Methods. We tested 4 methods to combine parameter uncertainty (around the regression coefficients used to predict future events) with sampling uncertainty (uncertainty around mean risk factors within the finite sample whose outcomes are being predicted and the effect of treatment on these risk factors). We compared these 4 methods using a simulation study based on an economic evaluation extrapolating the AFORRD randomized controlled trial using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model version 2. This established type 2 diabetes model predicts patient-level health outcomes and costs. Results. The 95% confidence intervals around life years gained gave 25% coverage when sampling uncertainty was excluded (i.e., 25% of 95% confidence intervals contained the "true" value). Allowing for sampling uncertainty as well as parameter uncertainty widened confidence intervals by 6.3-fold and gave 96.3% coverage. Methods adjusting for baseline risk factors that combine sampling and parameter uncertainty overcame the bias that can result from between-group baseline imbalance and gave confidence intervals around 50% wider than those just considering parameter uncertainty, with 99.8% coverage. Conclusions. Analyses extrapolating data for individual trial participants should include both sampling uncertainty and parameter uncertainty and should adjust for any imbalance in baseline covariates.

Early cost-utility analysis of tissue-engineered heart valves compared to bioprostheses in the aortic position in elderly patients.

OBJECTIVES: Aortic valve disease is the most frequent indication for heart valve replacement with the highest prevalence in elderly. Tissue-engineered heart valves (TEHV) are foreseen to have important advantages over currently used bioprosthetic heart valve substitutes, most importantly reducing valve degeneration with subsequent reduction of re-intervention. We performed early Health Technology Assessment of hypothetical TEHV in elderly patients (≥ 70 years) requiring surgical (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) to assess the potential of TEHV and to inform future development decisions. METHODS: Using a patient-level simulation model, the potential cost-effectiveness of TEHV compared with bioprostheses was predicted from a societal perspective. Anticipated, but currently hypothetical improvements in performance of TEHV, divided in durability, thrombogenicity, and infection resistance, were explored in scenario analyses to estimate quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain, cost reduction, headroom, and budget impact. RESULTS: Durability of TEHV had the highest impact on QALY gain and costs, followed by infection resistance. Improved TEHV performance (- 50% prosthetic valve-related events) resulted in lifetime QALY gains of 0.131 and 0.043, lifetime cost reductions of €639 and €368, translating to headrooms of €3255 and €2498 per hypothetical TEHV compared to SAVR and TAVI, respectively. National savings in the first decade after implementation varied between €2.8 and €11.2 million (SAVR) and €3.2-€12.8 million (TAVI) for TEHV substitution rates of 25-100%. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the relatively short life expectancy of elderly patients undergoing SAVR/TAVI, hypothetical TEHV are predicted to be cost-effective compared to bioprostheses, commercially viable and result in national cost savings when biomedical engineers succeed in realising improved durability and/or infection resistance of TEHV.

Cohort versus patient level simulation for the economic evaluation of single versus combination immuno-oncology therapies in metastatic melanoma.

Background: Model structure, despite being a key source of uncertainty in economic evaluations, is often not treated as a priority for model development. In oncology, partitioned survival models (PSMs) and Markov models, both types of cohort model, are commonly used, but patient responses to newer immuno-oncology (I-O) agents suggest that more innovative model frameworks should be explored. Objective: A discussion of the theoretical pros and cons of cohort level vs patient level simulation (PLS) models provides the background for an illustrative comparison of I-O therapies, namely nivolumab/ipilimumab combination and ipilimumab alone using patient level data from the CheckMate 067 trial in metastatic melanoma. PSM, Markov, and PLS models were compared on the basis of coherence with short-term clinical trial endpoints and long-term cost per QALY outcomes reported. Methods: The PSM was based on Kaplan-Meier curves from CheckMate 067 with 3-year data on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The Markov model used time independent transition probabilities based on the average trajectory of PFS and OS over the trial period. The PLS model was developed based on baseline characteristics hypothesized to be associated with disease as well as significant mortality and disease progression risk factors identified through a proportional hazards model. Results: The short-term Markov model outputs matched the 1-3 year clinical trial results approximately as well as the PSMs for OS but not PFS. The fixed (average) cohort PLS results corresponded as well as the PSMs for OS in the combination therapy arm and PFS in the monotherapy arm. Over the lifetime horizon, the PLS produced an additional 5.95 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with combination therapy relative to ipilimumab alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6,474 per QALY, compared with £14,194 for the PSMs which gave an incremental benefit of between 2.2 and 2.4 QALYs. The Markov model was an outlier (∼ £49,000 per QALY in the base case). Conclusions: The 4- and 5-state versions of the PSM cohort model estimated in this study deviate from the standard 3-state approach to better capture I-O response patterns. Markov and PLS approaches, by modeling state transitions explicitly, could be more informative in understanding I-O immune response, the PLS particularly so by reflecting heterogeneity in treatment response. However, both require a number of assumptions to capture the immune response effectively. Better I-O representation with surrogate endpoints in future clinical trials could yield greater model validity across all models.

A Generic Model for Follicular Lymphoma: Predicting Cost, Life Expectancy, and Quality-Adjusted-Life-Year Using UK Population-Based Observational Data.

OBJECTIVES: To use real-world data to develop a flexible generic decision model to predict cost, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for follicular lymphoma (FL) in the general patient population. METHODS: All patients newly diagnosed with FL in the UK's population-based Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org) between 2004 and 2011 were followed until 2015 (N = 740). Treatment pathways, QALYs, and costs were incorporated into a discrete event simulation to reflect patient heterogeneity, including age and disease management. Two scenario analyses, based on the latest National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines (rituximab induction therapy for newly diagnosed asymptomatic patients and rituximab maintenance therapy for patients between treatments), were conducted and their economic impacts were compared to current practice. RESULTS: Incidence-based analysis revealed expected average lifetime costs ranging from £6,165 [US$7,709] to £63,864 [US$79,862] per patient, and average life expectancy from 75 days to 17.56 years. Prevalence-based analysis estimated average annual treatment costs of £60-65 million [US$75-80 million], accounting for approximately 10% of the United Kingdom's annual National Health Service budget for hematological cancers as a whole. Assuming that treatment effects reported in trials are applicable to all patient groups, scenario analyses for two recent NICE guidelines demonstrated potential annual cost savings for the United Kingdom that ranged with uptake frequency from £0.6 million to £11 million [US$0.75-2.75 million]. CONCLUSIONS: Costs, survival, and QALYs associated with FL vary markedly with patient characteristics and disease management. Allowing the production of more realistic outcomes across the patient population as a whole, our model addresses this heterogeneity and is a useful tool with which to evaluate new technologies/treatments to support healthcare decision makers.

Treatment cost and life expectancy of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL): a discrete event simulation model on a UK population-based observational cohort.

BACKGROUND: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the commonest non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Previous studies examining the cost of treating DLBCL have generally focused on a specific first-line therapy alone; meaning that their findings can neither be extrapolated to the general patient population nor to other points along the treatment pathway. Based on empirical data from a representative population-based patient cohort, the objective of this study was to develop a simulation model that could predict costs and life expectancy of treating DLBCL. METHODS: All patients newly diagnosed with DLBCL in the UK's population-based Haematological Malignancy Research Network ( www.hmrn.org ) in 2007 were followed until 2013 (n = 271). Mapped treatment pathways, alongside cost information derived from the National Tariff 2013/14, were incorporated into a patient-level simulation model in order to reflect the heterogeneities of patient characteristics and treatment options. The NHS and social services perspective was adopted, and all outcomes were discounted at 3.5 % per annum. RESULTS: Overall, the expected total medical costs were £22,122 for those treated with curative intent, and £2930 for those managed palliatively. For curative chemotherapy, the predicted medical costs were £14,966, £23,449 and £7376 for first-, second- and third-line treatments, respectively. The estimated annual cost for treating DLBCL across the UK was around £88-92 million. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first cost modelling study using empirical data to provide 'real world' evidence throughout the DLBCL treatment pathway. Future application of the model could include evaluation of new technologies/treatments to support healthcare decision makers, especially in the era of personalised medicine.

Individual patient information to select patients for different radiation techniques.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Proton therapy is an emerging technique in radiotherapy which results in less dose to the normal tissues with similar target dose than photon therapy, the current standard. Patient-level simulation models support better decision making on which patients would benefit most. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A simulation model was developed tracking individual patients' status regarding the primary tumour and multiple complications. As a proof of principle, the model was populated based on information from a cohort of 1013 head and neck cancer patients. Dose-volume parameters for photon and proton radiation treatment plans were then fed into the model to compare outcomes in terms of length and quality of life and select patients that would benefit most. RESULTS: The illustrative model could adequately replicate the outcomes of photon therapy in the cohort. Improvements from proton therapy varied considerably between patients. The model projects medium-term outcomes for specific individuals and determines the benefits of applying proton rather than photon therapy. CONCLUSIONS: While the model needs to be fed with more and especially recent data before being fully ready for use in clinical practice, it could already distinguish between patients with high and low potential benefits from proton therapy. Benefits are highest for patients with both good prognosis and high expected damage to adjacent organs. The model allows for selecting such patients a priori based on patient relevant outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of a risk-based secondary screening programme of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a long-term economic model for type 2 diabetes to describe the entire spectrum of the disease over a wide range of healthcare programmes. The model evaluates a public health, risk-based screening programme in a country specific setting. METHODS: The lifespan of persons and important phases of the disease and related interventions are recorded in a Markov model, which first simulates the effect of screening, then replicates important complications of diabetes, follows the progression of individuals through physiological variables and finally calculates outcomes in monetary and naturalistic units. RESULTS: The introduction of the screening programme nearly doubled the proportion of diagnosed patients at the age of 50 and prolonged life expectancy. Three-yearly screening gained 0.0229 quality adjusted life years for an additional €83 per person compared with no screening and resulted an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €3630/quality adjusted life years. CONCLUSION: From the economic perspective introduction of the 3-yearly screening programme is justifiable and it provides a good value for money. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.