Identification of epithelial-related artificial neural network prognostic models for the prediction of bladder cancer prognosis through comprehensive analysis of single-cell and bulk RNA sequencing.

Background: Bladder cancer (BLCA) presents as a heterogeneous epithelial malignancy. Progress in the early detection and effective treatment of BLCA relies heavily on the identification of novel biomarkers. Therefore, the primary goal of this study is to pinpoint potential biomarkers for BLCA through the fusion of single-cell RNA sequencing and RNA sequencing assessments. Furthermore, the aim is to establish practical clinical prognostic models that can facilitate accurate categorization and individualized therapy for patients. Methods: In this research, training sets were acquired from the TCGA database, whereas validation sets (GSE32894) and single-cell datasets (GSE135337) were extracted from the GEO database. Single-cell analysis was utilized to obtain characteristic subpopulations along with their associated marker genes. Subsequently, a novel BLCA subtype was identified within TCGA-BLCA. Furthermore, an artificial neural network prognostic model was constructed within the TCGA-BLCA cohort and subsequently verified utilizing a validation set. Two machine learning algorithms were employed to screen hub genes. QRT-qPCR was performed to detect the gene expression levels utilized in the construction of prognostic models across various cell lines. Additionally, the cMAP database and molecular docking were utilized for searching small molecule drugs. Results: The results of single-cell analysis revealed the presence of epithelial cells in multiple subpopulations, with 1579 marker genes selected for subsequent investigations. Subsequently, four epithelial cell subtypes were identified within the TCGA-BLCA cohort. Notably, cluster A exhibited a significant survival advantage. Concurrently, an artificial neural network prognostic model comprising 17 feature genes was constructed, accurately stratifying patient risk. Patients categorized in the low-risk group demonstrated a considerable survival advantage. The ROC analysis suggested that the model has strong prognostic ability. Furthermore, the findings of the validation group align consistently with those from the training group. Two types of machine learning algorithms screened NFIC as hub genes. Forskolin, a small molecule drug that binds to NFIC, was identified by employing a cMAP database and molecular docking. Conclusion: The analysis results supplement the research on the role of epithelial cells in BLCA. An artificial neural network prognostic model containing 17 characteristic genes demonstrates the capability to accurately stratify patient risk, thereby potentially improving clinical decision-making and optimizing personalized therapeutic approaches.

From prognostication to therapeutics: Four key questions to accelerate the development of therapeutics for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has come a long way as a clinical concept within the hepatology and liver transplant communities. Though the term was proposed in 1995, the first recognition of the entity along with a consensus definition emerged in 2009. Subsequently, the entity has sparked great interest, inspired several consensus conferences, and inspired national societies to form professional ACLF affinity groups (eg, special interest group). Multicenter consortia have been established all over the world to study this condition, including the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure consortium, Asian Pacific Association for the Study of Liver Diseases ACLF Research Consortium, Chronic Liver disease Evolution And Registry for Events and Decompensation, and the LiverHope Consortium. Collectively, these consortia have enrolled tens of thousands of patients with or at risk for ACLF across dozens of countries and characterized in detail the predictors, pathogenesis, and progression of patients with ACLF. Perhaps most importantly, they have produced essential data characterizing the excess morbidity and mortality that patients with ACLF face, making a compelling case for the urgent need for therapeutic strategies for this condition.

Interleukin-6 in Sepsis-Promising but Yet to Be Proven.

How to cite this article: Sinha S. Interleukin-6 in Sepsis-Promising but Yet to Be Proven. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(7):629-631.

Methods in DNA methylation array dataset analysis: A review.

Understanding the intricate relationships between gene expression levels and epigenetic modifications in a genome is crucial to comprehending the pathogenic mechanisms of many diseases. With the advancement of DNA Methylome Profiling techniques, the emphasis on identifying Differentially Methylated Regions (DMRs/DMGs) has become crucial for biomarker discovery, offering new insights into the etiology of illnesses. This review surveys the current state of computational tools/algorithms for the analysis of microarray-based DNA methylation profiling datasets, focusing on key concepts underlying the diagnostic/prognostic CpG site extraction. It addresses methodological frameworks, algorithms, and pipelines employed by various authors, serving as a roadmap to address challenges and understand changing trends in the methodologies for analyzing array-based DNA methylation profiling datasets derived from diseased genomes. Additionally, it highlights the importance of integrating gene expression and methylation datasets for accurate biomarker identification, explores prognostic prediction models, and discusses molecular subtyping for disease classification. The review also emphasizes the contributions of machine learning, neural networks, and data mining to enhance diagnostic workflow development, thereby improving accuracy, precision, and robustness.

Prognostic Factors and Models to Predict Mortality Outcomes in Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: Predicting adverse outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a complex task owing to the heterogeneity in patient and disease characteristics. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors and prognostic models to predict mortality outcomes in patients with PAD Fontaine stage I - III or Rutherford category 0 - 4. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched to identify studies examining individual prognostic factors or studies aiming to develop or validate a prognostic model for mortality outcomes in patients with PAD. REVIEW METHODS: Information on study design, patient population, prognostic factors, and prognostic model characteristics was extracted, and risk of bias was evaluated. RESULTS: Sixty nine studies investigated prognostic factors for mortality outcomes in PAD. Over 80 single prognostic factors were identified, with age as a predictor of death in most of the studies. Other common factors included sex, diabetes, and smoking status. Six studies had low risk of bias in all domains, and the remainder had an unclear or high risk of bias in at least one domain. Eight studies developed or validated a prognostic model. All models included age in their primary model, but not sex. All studies had similar discrimination levels of > 70%. Five of the studies on prognostic models had an overall high risk of bias, whereas two studies had an overall unclear risk of bias. CONCLUSION: This systematic review shows that a large number of prognostic studies have been published, with heterogeneity in patient populations, outcomes, and risk of bias. Factors such as sex, age, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking are significant in predicting mortality risk among patients with PAD Fontaine stage I - III or Rutherford category 0 - 4.

Prognosis-based management of unexplained infertility-why not?

Up to a half of couples seeking medical assistance for infertility are diagnosed with unexplained infertility, characterized by normal ovulation, tubal patency, and semen analysis results. This condition presents a challenge in determining the optimal treatment approach. Available treatments include IUI and IVF, but guidelines vary on when to offer each. Prognosis-based management is identified as a research priority, and various prediction models have been developed to guide treatment decisions. Prognostic factors include female age, duration of subfertility, and sperm parameters, among others. Prognosis-based strategies can enhance cost-effectiveness, safety, and patient outcomes, offering less invasive options to those with good prognoses and more aggressive interventions to those with poor prognoses. However, there is a gap between research evidence and its clinical application. In this article, we discuss the application of prognosis-based management in the context of unexplained infertility, highlighting its potential to improve clinical decision-making and patient outcomes.

Consolidated Reporting Guidelines for Prognostic and Diagnostic Machine Learning Models (CREMLS).

The number of papers presenting machine learning (ML) models that are being submitted to and published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research and other JMIR Publications journals has steadily increased. Editors and peer reviewers involved in the review process for such manuscripts often go through multiple review cycles to enhance the quality and completeness of reporting. The use of reporting guidelines or checklists can help ensure consistency in the quality of submitted (and published) scientific manuscripts and, for example, avoid instances of missing information. In this Editorial, the editors of JMIR Publications journals discuss the general JMIR Publications policy regarding authors' application of reporting guidelines and specifically focus on the reporting of ML studies in JMIR Publications journals, using the Consolidated Reporting of Machine Learning Studies (CREMLS) guidelines, with an example of how authors and other journals could use the CREMLS checklist to ensure transparency and rigor in reporting.

Deciphering the Prognostic Efficacy of MRI Radiomics in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis.

This meta-analysis investigates the prognostic value of MRI-based radiomics in nasopharyngeal carcinoma treatment outcomes, specifically focusing on overall survival (OS) variability. The study protocol was registered with INPLASY (INPLASY202420101). Initially, a systematic review identified 15 relevant studies involving 6243 patients through a comprehensive search across PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, adhering to PRISMA guidelines. The methodological quality was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool and the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS), highlighting a low risk of bias in most domains. Our analysis revealed a significant average concordance index (c-index) of 72% across studies, indicating the potential of radiomics in clinical prognostication. However, moderate heterogeneity was observed, particularly in OS predictions. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression identified validation methods and radiomics software as significant heterogeneity moderators. Notably, the number of features in the prognosis model correlated positively with its performance. These findings suggest radiomics' promising role in enhancing cancer treatment strategies, though the observed heterogeneity and potential biases call for cautious interpretation and standardization in future research.

Prognostic Model Construction of Disulfidptosis-Related Genes and Targeted Anticancer Drug Research in Pancreatic Cancer.

Pancreatic cancer stands as one of the most lethal malignancies, characterized by delayed diagnosis, high mortality rates, limited treatment efficacy, and poor prognosis. Disulfidptosis, a recently unveiled modality of cell demise induced by disulfide stress, has emerged as a critical player intricately associated with the onset and progression of various cancer types. It has emerged as a promising candidate biomarker for cancer diagnosis, prognosis assessment, and treatment strategies. In this study, we have effectively established a prognostic risk model for pancreatic cancer by incorporating multiple differentially expressed long non-coding RNAs (DElncRNAs) closely linked to disulfide-driven cell death. Our investigation delved into the nuanced relationship between the DElncRNA-based predictive model for disulfide-driven cell death and the therapeutic responses to anticancer agents. Our findings illuminate that the high-risk subgroup exhibits heightened susceptibility to the small molecule compound AZD1208, positioning it as a prospective therapeutic agent for pancreatic cancer. Finally, we have elucidated the underlying mechanistic potential of AZD1208 in ameliorating pancreatic cancer through its targeted inhibition of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPARG) protein, employing an array of comprehensive analytical methods, including molecular docking and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. This study explores disulfidptosis-related genes, paving the way for the development of targeted therapies for pancreatic cancer and emphasizing their significance in the field of oncology. Furthermore, through computational biology approaches, the drug AZD1208 was identified as a potential treatment targeting the PPARG protein for pancreatic cancer. This discovery opens new avenues for exploring targets and screening drugs for pancreatic cancer.

GRADE concept paper 8: judging the certainty of discrimination performance estimates of prognostic models in a body of validation studies.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models incorporate multiple prognostic factors to estimate the likelihood of future events for individual patients based on their prognostic factor values. Evaluating these models crucially involves conducting studies to assess their predictive performance, like discrimination. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of these validation studies play an essential role in selecting models for clinical practice. METHODS: In this paper, we outline 3 thresholds to determine the target for certainty rating in the discrimination of prognostic models, as observed across a body of validation studies. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: We propose 3 thresholds when rating the certainty of evidence about a prognostic model's discrimination. The first threshold amounts to rating certainty in the model's ability to classify better than random chance. The other 2 approaches involve setting thresholds informed by other mechanisms for classification: clinician intuition or an alternative prognostic model developed for the same disease area and outcome. The choice of threshold will vary based on the context. Instead of relying on arbitrary discrimination cut-offs, our approach positions the observed discrimination within an informed spectrum, potentially aiding decisions about a prognostic model's practical utility.

Identification of hub genes and potential molecular mechanisms related to drug sensitivity in acute myeloid leukemia based on machine learning.

Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the most common form of leukemia among adults and is characterized by uncontrolled proliferation and clonal expansion of hematopoietic cells. There has been a significant improvement in the treatment of younger patients, however, prognosis in the elderly AML patients remains poor. Methods: We used computational methods and machine learning (ML) techniques to identify and explore the differential high-risk genes (DHRGs) in AML. The DHRGs were explored through multiple in silico approaches including genomic and functional analysis, survival analysis, immune infiltration, miRNA co-expression and stemness features analyses to reveal their prognostic importance in AML. Furthermore, using different ML algorithms, prognostic models were constructed and validated using the DHRGs. At the end molecular docking studies were performed to identify potential drug candidates targeting the selected DHRGs. Results: We identified a total of 80 DHRGs by comparing the differentially expressed genes derived between AML patients and normal controls and high-risk AML genes identified by Cox regression. Genetic and epigenetic alteration analyses of the DHRGs revealed a significant association of their copy number variations and methylation status with overall survival (OS) of AML patients. Out of the 137 models constructed using different ML algorithms, the combination of Ridge and plsRcox maintained the highest mean C-index and was used to build the final model. When AML patients were classified into low- and high-risk groups based on DHRGs, the low-risk group had significantly longer OS in the AML training and validation cohorts. Furthermore, immune infiltration, miRNA coexpression, stemness feature and hallmark pathway analyses revealed significant differences in the prognosis of the low- and high-risk AML groups. Drug sensitivity and molecular docking studies revealed top 5 drugs, including carboplatin and austocystin-D that may significantly affect the DHRGs in AML. Conclusion: The findings from the current study identified a set of high-risk genes that may be used as prognostic and therapeutic markers for AML patients. In addition, significant use of the ML algorithms in constructing and validating the prognostic models in AML was demonstrated. Although our study used extensive bioinformatics and machine learning methods to identify the hub genes in AML, their experimental validations using knock-out/-in methods would strengthen our findings.

MRI radiomics in head and neck cancer from reproducibility to combined approaches.

The clinical applicability of radiomics in oncology depends on its transferability to real-world settings. However, the absence of standardized radiomics pipelines combined with methodological variability and insufficient reporting may hamper the reproducibility of radiomic analyses, impeding its translation to clinics. This study aimed to identify and replicate published, reproducible radiomic signatures based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), for prognosis of overall survival in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. Seven signatures were identified and reproduced on 58 HNSCC patients from the DB2Decide Project. The analysis focused on: assessing the signatures' reproducibility and replicating them by addressing the insufficient reporting; evaluating their relationship and performances; and proposing a cluster-based approach to combine radiomic signatures, enhancing the prognostic performance. The analysis revealed key insights: (1) despite the signatures were based on different features, high correlations among signatures and features suggested consistency in the description of lesion properties; (2) although the uncertainties in reproducing the signatures, they exhibited a moderate prognostic capability on an external dataset; (3) clustering approaches improved prognostic performance compared to individual signatures. Thus, transparent methodology not only facilitates replication on external datasets but also advances the field, refining prognostic models for potential personalized medicine applications.

Evaluation of mortality, prognostic parameters, and treatment efficacy in mycosis fungoides.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Mycosis fungoides (MF), the most common primary cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, is characterized by a variable clinical course, presenting either as indolent disease or showing fatal progression due to extracutaneous involvement. Importantly, the lack of prognostic models and predominantly palliative therapy settings hamper patient care. Here, we aimed to define survival rates, disease prediction accuracy, and treatment impact in MF. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Hundred-forty MF patients were assessed retrospectively. Prognosis and disease progression/survival were analyzed using univariate Cox proportional hazards regression model and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Skin tumors were linked to shorter progression-free, overall survival and a 3.48 increased risk for disease progression when compared to erythroderma. The Cutaneous Lymphoma International Prognostic Index identified patients at risk in early-stage disease only. Moreover, expression of Ki-67 >20%, CD30 >10%, CD20+, and CD7- were associated with a significantly worse outcome independent of disease stage. Only single-agent interferon-α and phototherapy combined with interferon-α or retinoids/bexarotene achieved long-term disease control in MF. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support predictive validity of prognostic factors and models in MF and identified further potential parameters associated with poor survival. Prospective studies on prognostic indices across disease stages and treatment modalities are needed to predict and improve survival.

Development of prognostic models for predicting 90-day neurological function and mortality after cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: The survivors of cardiac arrest experienced vary extent of hypoxic ischemic brain injury causing mortality and long-term neurologic disability. However, there is still a need to develop robust and reliable prognostic models that can accurately predict these outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To establish reliable models for predicting 90-day neurological function and mortality in adult ICU patients recovering from cardiac arrest. METHODS: We enrolled patients who had recovered from cardiac arrest at Binhaiwan Central Hospital of Dongguan, from January 2018 to July 2021. The study's primary outcome was 90-day neurological function, assessed and divided into two categories using the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) scale: either good (CPC 1-2) or poor (CPC 3-5). The secondary outcome was 90-day mortality. We analyzed the relationships between risk factors and outcomes individually. A total of four models were developed: two multivariable logistic regression models (models 1 and 2) for predicting neurological function, and two Cox regression models (models 3 and 4) for predicting mortality. Models 2 and 4 included new neurological biomarkers as predictor variables, while models 1 and 3 excluded. We evaluated calibration, discrimination, clinical utility, and relative performance to establish superiority between the models. RESULTS: Model 1 incorporates variables such as gender, site of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), total CPR time, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, while model 2 includes gender, site of CPR, APACHE II score, and serum level of ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1). Model 2 outperforms model 1, showcasing a superior area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.97 compared to 0.83. Additionally, model 2 exhibits improved accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The decision curve analysis confirms the net benefit of model 2. Similarly, models 3 and 4 are designed to predict 90-day mortality. Model 3 incorporates the variables such as site of CPR, total CPR time, and APACHE II score, while model 4 includes APACHE II score, total CPR time, and serum level of UCH-L1. Model 4 outperforms model 3, showcasing an AUC of 0.926 and a C-index of 0.830. The clinical decision curve analysis also confirms the net benefit of model 4. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating new neurological biomarkers, we have successfully developed enhanced models that can predict 90-day neurological function and mortality outcomes more accurately.

External validation of six COVID-19 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk in older populations in a hospital, primary care, and nursing home setting.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically evaluate the performance of COVID-19 prognostic models and scores for mortality risk in older populations across three health-care settings: hospitals, primary care, and nursing homes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This retrospective external validation study included 14,092 older individuals of ≥70 years of age with a clinical or polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March 2020 to December 2020. The six validation cohorts include three hospital-based (CliniCo, COVID-OLD, COVID-PREDICT), two primary care-based (Julius General Practitioners Network/Academisch network huisartsgeneeskunde/Network of Academic general Practitioners, PHARMO), and one nursing home cohort (YSIS) in the Netherlands. Based on a living systematic review of COVID-19 prediction models using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool for quality and risk of bias assessment and considering predictor availability in validation cohorts, we selected six prognostic models predicting mortality risk in adults with COVID-19 infection (GAL-COVID-19 mortality, 4C Mortality Score, National Early Warning Score 2-extended model, Xie model, Wang clinical model, and CURB65 score). All six prognostic models were validated in the hospital cohorts and the GAL-COVID-19 mortality model was validated in all three healthcare settings. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality for hospitals and 28-day mortality for primary care and nursing home settings. Model performance was evaluated in each validation cohort separately in terms of discrimination, calibration, and decision curves. An intercept update was performed in models indicating miscalibration followed by predictive performance re-evaluation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: In-hospital mortality for hospitals and 28-day mortality for primary care and nursing home setting. RESULTS: All six prognostic models performed poorly and showed miscalibration in the older population cohorts. In the hospital settings, model performance ranged from calibration-in-the-large -1.45 to 7.46, calibration slopes 0.24-0.81, and C-statistic 0.55-0.71 with 4C Mortality Score performing as the most discriminative and well-calibrated model. Performance across health-care settings was similar for the GAL-COVID-19 model, with a calibration-in-the-large in the range of -2.35 to -0.15 indicating overestimation, calibration slopes of 0.24-0.81 indicating signs of overfitting, and C-statistic of 0.55-0.71. CONCLUSION: Our results show that most prognostic models for predicting mortality risk performed poorly in the older population with COVID-19, in each health-care setting: hospital, primary care, and nursing home settings. Insights into factors influencing predictive model performance in the older population are needed for pandemic preparedness and reliable prognostication of health-related outcomes in this demographic.

A comparative study of explainable ensemble learning and logistic regression for predicting in-hospital mortality in the emergency department.

This study addresses the challenges associated with emergency department (ED) overcrowding and emphasizes the need for efficient risk stratification tools to identify high-risk patients for early intervention. While several scoring systems, often based on logistic regression (LR) models, have been proposed to indicate patient illness severity, this study aims to compare the predictive performance of ensemble learning (EL) models with LR for in-hospital mortality in the ED. A cross-sectional single-center study was conducted at the ED of Imam Reza Hospital in northeast Iran from March 2016 to March 2017. The study included adult patients with one to three levels of emergency severity index. EL models using Bagging, AdaBoost, random forests (RF), Stacking and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms, along with an LR model, were constructed. The training and validation visits from the ED were randomly divided into 80% and 20%, respectively. After training the proposed models using tenfold cross-validation, their predictive performance was evaluated. Model performance was compared using the Brier score (BS), The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), The area and precision-recall curve (AUCPR), Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, precision, sensitivity, accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). The study included 2025 unique patients admitted to the hospital's ED, with a total percentage of hospital deaths at approximately 19%. In the training group and the validation group, 274 of 1476 (18.6%) and 152 of 728 (20.8%) patients died during hospitalization, respectively. According to the evaluation of the presented framework, EL models, particularly Bagging, predicted in-hospital mortality with the highest AUROC (0.839, CI (0.802-0.875)) and AUCPR = 0.64 comparable in terms of discrimination power with LR (AUROC (0.826, CI (0.787-0.864)) and AUCPR = 0.61). XGB achieved the highest precision (0.83), sensitivity (0.831), accuracy (0.842), F1-score (0.833), and the highest MCC (0.48). Additionally, the most accurate models in the unbalanced dataset belonged to RF with the lowest BS (0.128). Although all studied models overestimate mortality risk and have insufficient calibration (P > 0.05), stacking demonstrated relatively good agreement between predicted and actual mortality. EL models are not superior to LR in predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED. Both EL and LR models can be considered as screening tools to identify patients at risk of mortality.

Optimizing dynamic predictions from joint models using super learning.

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are often employed to calculate dynamic individualized predictions used in numerous applications of precision medicine. Two components of joint models that influence the accuracy of these predictions are the shape of the longitudinal trajectories and the functional form linking the longitudinal outcome history to the hazard of the event. Finding a single well-specified model that produces accurate predictions for all subjects and follow-up times can be challenging, especially when considering multiple longitudinal outcomes. In this work, we use the concept of super learning and avoid selecting a single model. In particular, we specify a weighted combination of the dynamic predictions calculated from a library of joint models with different specifications. The weights are selected to optimize a predictive accuracy metric using V-fold cross-validation. We use as predictive accuracy measures the expected quadratic prediction error and the expected predictive cross-entropy. In a simulation study, we found that the super learning approach produces results very similar to the Oracle model, which was the model with the best performance in the test datasets. All proposed methodology is implemented in the freely available R package JMbayes2.

An Improved Clinical and Genetics-Based Prediction Model for Diabetic Foot Ulcer Healing.

Objective: The goal of this investigation was to use comprehensive prediction modeling tools and available genetic information to try to improve upon the performance of simple clinical models in predicting whether a diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) will heal. Approach: We utilized a cohort study (n = 206) that included clinical factors, measurements of circulating endothelial precursor cells (CEPCs), and fine sequencing of the NOS1AP gene. We derived and selected relevant predictive features from this patient-level information using statistical and machine learning techniques. We then developed prognostic models using machine learning approaches and assessed predictive performance. The presentation is consistent with TRIPOD requirements. Results: Models using baseline clinical and CEPC data had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 (0.66-0.80). Models using only single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the NOS1AP gene had an AUC of 0.67 (95% confidence interval, CI: [0.59-0.75]). However, models incorporating baseline and SNP information resulted in improved AUC (0.80, 95% CI [0.73-0.87]). Innovation: We provide a rigorous analysis demonstrating the predictive potential of genetic information in DFU healing. In this process, we present a framework for using advanced statistical and bioinformatics techniques for creating superior prognostic models and identify potentially predictive SNPs for future research. Conclusion: We have developed a new benchmark for which future predictive models can be compared against. Such models will enable wound care experts to more accurately predict whether a patient will heal and aid clinical trialists in designing studies to evaluate therapies for subjects likely or unlikely to heal.

Development and validation of prognostic models for small cell lung cancer patients with liver metastasis: a SEER population-based study.

BACKGROUND: This study was to establish and validate prediction models to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients with liver metastasis. METHODS: In the retrospective cohort study, SCLC patients with liver metastasis between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into the training group and testing group (3: 1 ratio). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the predictive factors for CSS and OS in SCLC with liver metastasis. The prediction models were conducted based on the predictive factors. The performances of the prediction models were evaluated by concordance indexes (C-index), and calibration plots. The clinical value of the models was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: In total, 8,587 patients were included, with 154 patients experiencing CSS and 154 patients experiencing OS. The median follow-up was 3 months. Age, gender, marital status, N stage, lung metastases, multiple metastases surgery of metastatic site, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent predictive factors for the CSS and OS of SCLC patients with liver metastasis. The prediction models presented good performances of CSS and OS among patients with liver metastasis, with the C-index for CSS being 0.724, whereas the C-index for OS was 0.732, in the training set. The calibration curve showed a high degree of consistency between the actual and predicted CSS and OS. DCA suggested that the prediction models provided greater net clinical benefit to these patients. CONCLUSION: Our prediction models showed good predictive performance for the CSS and OS among SCLC patients with liver metastasis. Our developed nomograms may help clinicians predict CSS and OS in SCLC patients with liver metastasis.