Stochastic Petri net model describing the relationship between reported maternal and congenital syphilis cases in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. In 2016, it was declared an epidemic in Brazil due to its high morbidity and mortality rates, mainly in cases of maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) with unfavorable outcomes. This paper aimed to mathematically describe the relationship between MS and CS cases reported in Brazil over the interval from 2010 to 2020, considering the likelihood of diagnosis and effective and timely maternal treatment during prenatal care, thus supporting the decision-making and coordination of syphilis response efforts. METHODS: The model used in this paper was based on stochastic Petri net (SPN) theory. Three different regressions, including linear, polynomial, and logistic regression, were used to obtain the weights of an SPN model. To validate the model, we ran 100 independent simulations for each probability of an untreated MS case leading to CS case (PUMLC) and performed a statistical t-test to reinforce the results reported herein. RESULTS: According to our analysis, the model for predicting congenital syphilis cases consistently achieved an average accuracy of 93% or more for all tested probabilities of an untreated MS case leading to CS case. CONCLUSIONS: The SPN approach proved to be suitable for explaining the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) dataset using the range of 75-95% for the probability of an untreated MS case leading to a CS case (PUMLC). In addition, the model's predictive power can help plan actions to fight against the disease.

Model-Driven Impact Quantification of Energy Resource Redundancy and Server Rejuvenation on the Dependability of Medical Sensor Networks in Smart Hospitals.

The spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic across countries all over the world urges governments to revolutionize the traditional medical hospitals/centers to provide sustainable and trustworthy medical services to patients under the pressure of the huge overload on the computing systems of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for medical monitoring as well as treatment services of medical professionals. Uncertain malfunctions in any part of the medical computing infrastructure, from its power system in a remote area to the local computing systems at a smart hospital, can cause critical failures in medical monitoring services, which could lead to a fatal loss of human life in the worst case. Therefore, early design in the medical computing infrastructure's power and computing systems needs to carefully consider the dependability characteristics, including the reliability and availability of the WSNs in smart hospitals under an uncertain outage of any part of the energy resources or failures of computing servers, especially due to software aging. In that regard, we propose reliability and availability models adopting stochastic Petri net (SPN) to quantify the impact of energy resources and server rejuvenation on the dependability of medical sensor networks. Three different availability models (A, B, and C) are developed in accordance with various operational configurations of a smart hospital's computing infrastructure to assimilate the impact of energy resource redundancy and server rejuvenation techniques for high availability. Moreover, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the components that impose the greatest impact on the system availability. The analysis results indicate different impacts of the considered configurations on the WSN's operational availability in smart hospitals, particularly 99.40%, 99.53%, and 99.64% for the configurations A, B, and C, respectively. This result highlights the difference of 21 h of downtime per year when comparing the worst with the best case. This study can help leverage the early design of smart hospitals considering its wireless medical sensor networks' dependability in quality of service to cope with overloading medical services in world-wide virus pandemics.

Performance-Cost Trade-Off in Auto-Scaling Mechanisms for Cloud Computing.

Cloud computing has been widely adopted over the years by practitioners and companies with a variety of requirements. With a strong economic appeal, cloud computing makes possible the idea of computing as a utility, in which computing resources can be consumed and paid for with the same convenience as electricity. One of the main characteristics of cloud as a service is elasticity supported by auto-scaling capabilities. The auto-scaling cloud mechanism allows adjusting resources to meet multiple demands dynamically. The elasticity service is best represented in critical web trading and transaction systems that must satisfy a certain service level agreement (SLA), such as maximum response time limits for different types of inbound requests. Nevertheless, existing cloud infrastructures maintained by different cloud enterprises often offer different cloud service costs for equivalent SLAs upon several factors. The factors might be contract types, VM types, auto-scaling configuration parameters, and incoming workload demand. Identifying a combination of parameters that results in SLA compliance directly in the system is often sophisticated, while the manual analysis is prone to errors due to the huge number of possibilities. This paper proposes the modeling of auto-scaling mechanisms in a typical cloud infrastructure using a stochastic Petri net (SPN) and the employment of a well-established adaptive search metaheuristic (GRASP) to discover critical trade-offs between performance and cost in cloud services.The proposed SPN models enable cloud designers to estimate the metrics of cloud services in accordance with each required SLA such as the best configuration, cost, system response time, and throughput.The auto-scaling SPN model was extensively validated with 95% confidence against a real test-bed scenario with 18.000 samples. A case-study of cloud services was used to investigate the viability of this method and to evaluate the adoptability of the proposed auto-scaling model in practice. On the other hand, the proposed optimization algorithm enables the identification of economic system configuration and parameterization to satisfy required SLA and budget constraints. The adoption of the metaheuristic GRASP approach and the modeling of auto-scaling mechanisms in this work can help search for the optimized-quality solution and operational management for cloud services in practice.