Procedures to combine estimators of greenhouse gases emission factors.

BACKGROUND: This article describes a new procedure to estimate the mean and variance of greenhouse gases (GHG) emission factors based on different, possibly conflicting, estimates for these emission factors. The procedure uses common information such as mean and standard deviation usually reported in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) database and other references in the literature that estimate emission factors. Essentially, it is a procedure in the class of meta-analysis, based on the computation of [Formula: see text], a new estimator for the variance of the emission factor. RESULTS: We discuss the quality of this estimator in terms of its probability distribution and show that it is unbiased. The resulting confidence interval for the mean emission factor is tighter than those that would have resulted from using other estimators such as pooled variance and thus, the new procedure improves the accuracy in estimating GHG emissions. The application of the procedure is illustrated in a case study involving the estimation of methane emissions from rice cultivation. CONCLUSIONS: The estimation of emission factors using [Formula: see text] was demonstrated to be more accurate because it is not biased and more precise than alternative methods.

Uncertainty Evaluation of a Gas Turbine Model Based on a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model and Monte Carlo Dropout.

Gas turbines are thermoelectric plants with various applications, such as large-scale electricity production, petrochemical industry, and steam generation. In order to optimize the operation of a gas turbine, it is necessary to develop system identification models that allow for the development of studies and analyses to increase the system's reliability. Current strategies for modeling complex and non-linear systems can be based on artificial intelligence techniques, using autoregressive neural networks of the NARX and LSTM type. In this context, this work aims to develop a model of a gas turbine capable of estimating the rotation speed of the turbine and simultaneously estimating the uncertainty associated with the estimation. These methodologies are based on artificial neural networks and the Monte Carlo dropout simulation method. The results were obtained from experimental data from a 215 MW gas turbine, getting the best model with a MAPE of 0.02% and an uncertainty associated with the turbine rotation speed of 2.2 RPM.

Fertility-Related Concerns and Uncertainties in Adolescent and Young Adult Childhood Cancer Survivors.

Purpose: This study aimed to uncover the fertility-related concerns and uncertainties in adolescent and young adult (AYA) childhood cancer survivors. Methods: In this qualitative study, participants were recruited from an oncohematology outpatient clinic at a university hospital in Brazil. Twenty-four AYA cancer survivors, aged 18- 24 years (13 men and 11 women), participated in individual semistructured interviews focusing on two parts-sociodemographic and clinical variables and guiding questions that enabled understanding of the concerns and uncertainties regarding the risks of infertility and their impact on relationships and the need for guidance. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Results: Four themes were identified from the data-(1) knowledge about fertility, (2) emotional impact and fertility-related uncertainty, (3) sharing the possible risk of infertility with partners, and (4) need for information on possible loss of fertility. Conclusion: The meanings attributed to the loss of fertility after cancer treatment uncovered the need for health professionals to organize survivor services in line with the survivors' needs, and include reproductive concerns and uncertainties in this planning. The study results provide insights for the development of health care services that meet the real needs of this particular population that has long-term follow-up demands.

Statistical control of processes applied to geometric uncertainties for CTV expansion margins determination in prostate cancer patients treated with VMAT: a prospective study in 57 patients.

PURPOSE: To study the control graphs applicability for the geometric uncertainties of VMAT treatments in prostate cancer patients, and their use to verify the hypothesis of the data obtained randomness, to apply the margins of Van Herk expression. MATERIAL AND METHODS: During the first 5 days of treatment, and then once a week, a Kv CBCT was performed, compared with the simulation CT and adjusted the displacements, to determine the inter-fraction errors. Immediately after radiation therapy, another CBCT was performed (for intra-fraction errors). With these data, the X, R position control charts have been made. The patients, not maintained the deviations within the charts control limits, were called "anomalies". Then, we compared the deviations and margins calculated with the van Herk expression for all patients and for those without anomalies. RESULTS: The margins determined show appreciable differences if there were calculated for the total set of patients or for the set of them without anomalies in the control charts. For the overall set of patients, the lateral, longitudinal, and vertical margins were 0.45 cm, 0.52 cm, 0.56 cm, while for the set of patients without anomalies were 0.29 cm, 0.35 cm, and 0.38 cm. CONCLUSIONS: The use of control charts allows tracking geometric deviations both inter and intra-fraction, variability real-time control and to detect situations in which it can change for non-random reasons, and require immediate investigation. Maintaining geometric deviations in the control state decreases the margins needed to administer a high dose to CTV in a high percentage of cancer prostate patients.

Structural Statistical Quantifiers and Thermal Features of Quantum Systems.

This paper deals primarily with relatively novel thermal quantifiers called disequilibrium and statistical complexity, whose role is growing in different disciplines of physics and other sciences. These quantifiers are called L. Ruiz, Mancini, and Calvet (LMC) quantifiers, following the initials of the three authors who advanced them. We wish to establish information-theoretical bridges between LMC structural quantifiers and (1) Thermal Heisenberg uncertainties ΔxΔp (at temperature T); (2) A nuclear physics fermion model. Having achieved such purposes, we determine to what an extent our bridges can be extended to both the semi-classical and classical realms. In addition, we find a strict bound relating a special LMC structural quantifier to quantum uncertainties.

Em torno da pandemia: factos, perceções e conjeturas / About the pandemic: facts, perceptions, and conjectures / Sobre la pandemia: hechos, percepciones y conjeturas / Autour de la pandémie: faits, perceptions et conjectures

A pandemia da covid interpelou diretamente as nossas sociedades de múltiplas formas, desde aspetos atinentes à confiança social na ciência até à possível hiperpolitização dela, passando pelas prioridades assignadas ao funcionamento dos sistemas económicos e às formas da sua regulação. Sendo o nosso ambiente cultural marcado por evidentes traços de sinofobia, a experiência civilizacional de longo prazo da China é confrontada com a das sociedades ocidentais. As frequentes reclamações de maior intervenção económica estatal e de cooperação social entrecruzam-se com diversos outros problemas, designadamente as desigualdades sociais. O caso sueco foi também objeto de consideração, ficando expressa uma visão cética quanto ao seu valor enquanto modelo médico. São, enfim, destacadas várias complexidades e incertezas da situação presente.

The covid pandemic has directly tested our societies in multiple ways, ranging from aspects regarding social trust in science to its possible over-politicization, through the priorities assigned to the functioning of economic systems and their regulation. Given that our cultural environment is marked by obvious traits of Sinophobia, China's long-term civilizational experience is confronted with that of Western societies. Nowadays frequent claims of bigger state economic intervention and increased social cooperation intersect with various other problems, namely social inequalities. The Swedish case was also the subject of consideration, with a skeptical view being expressed regarding its worth as a medical model. Finally, several complexities and uncertainties of the present situation are highlighted.

La pandemia de la covid afectó a nuestras sociedades de diversas formas, desde aspectos relativos a la confianza social en la ciencia hasta la posible super-politización de la misma, pasando por las prioridades del funcionamiento de los sistemas económicos y sus formas de regulación. Tomando en cuenta los evidentes rasgos de sinofobia en nuestro ambiente cultural, la experiencia civilizadora a largo plazo de China se confronta con la de las sociedades occidentales. Las frecuentes quejas de una mayor intervención económica estatal y de cooperación social se cruzan con diversos otros problemas, especialmente las desigualdades sociales. El caso sueco fue también objeto de consideración, revelando una visión escéptica en relación a su valor como modelo médico. Se destacan varias complejidades y dudas de la presente situación.

La pandémie du covid a interpellé directement nos sociétés de façons multiples, dès les aspects touchant la confiance sociale dans la science, jusqu'à sa possible hyperpolitisation, tout en passant par les priorités assignées au fonctionnement des systèmes économiques et aux formes de sa régulation. Comme notre environnement culturel est marqué par des traits de sinophobie évidents, l'expérience civilisationnelle de longue durée de la Chine est confrontée à celle des sociétés occidentales. Les fréquentes demandes d'une plus grande intervention économiques de la part de l'Etat et d'une coopération sociale, aussi bien que d'autres problèmes divers s'entrecroisent. Le cas suédois a été lui aussi objet d'une analyse, et il en reste un point de vue sceptique concernant sa valeur en tant que modèle médical. Enfin, on met en évidence plusieurs incertitudes et complexités de la situation actuelle.

Molecular Evidences of a Hidden Complex Scenario in Leporinus cf. friderici.

The megadiversity of the neotropical ichthyofauna has been associated to recent diversification processes, reflecting in subtle or lacking morphological differentiation between species, challenging the classical taxonomic identification. Leporinus friderici occurs in several river basins of South America, and its nominal taxonomic validity has been questioned. Its wide distribution within the Brazilian Shield suggests that this species could be genetically structured among the hydrographic basins, despite a sharp morphological similarity. In this study, we performed phylogenetic analyses, based on three nuclear (recombination activating gene 1, RAG1, recombination activating gene 2, RAG2, and myosin heavy chain 6 cardiac muscle alpha gene, Myh6) and two mitochondrial (COI and Cytochrome b, Cytb) markers, in specimens morphologically similar to L. friderici and related species from different hydrographic basins in South America. Our phylogenetic tree identified four well-supported clades, which point out to the existence of taxonomic inconsistencies within this fish group. A clade named L. cf. friderici sensu stricto included eight Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units recently diversified in the Brazilian Shield basins. These results were also confirmed by a single-gene species delimitation analysis. It is suggested that this clade includes a species complex, characterizing taxonomic uncertainties. Another clade recovered only L. friderici from the Suriname rivers, validating this nominal species in its type locality. A third no-named clade, characterized by deeper species divergence, recovered five different nominal species interleaved with other undescribed forms previously also recognized as L. cf. friderici, indicating taxonomic errors. The fourth clade only included L. taeniatus. Our results showed a complex scenario involving the morphotype L. cf. friderici and allowed us to address aspects related to evolutionary diversification of this fish group and historical processes involved with, highlighting the importance of revealing hidden biodiversity for the taxonomy and conservationist action plans of these fish.

Species delimitation of the blue-spotted spiny lizard within a multilocus, multispecies coalescent framework, results in the recognition of a new Sceloporus species.

Species delimitation is a major topic in systematics. Species delimitation methods based on molecular data have become more common since this approach provides insights about species identification via levels of gene flow, the degree of hybridization and phylogenetic relationships. Also, combining multilocus mitochondrial and nuclear DNA leads to more reliable conclusions about species limits. Coalescent-based species delimitation methods explicitly reveal separately evolving lineages using probabilistic approaches and testing the delimitation hypotheses for several species. Within a multispecies, multilocus, coalescent framework, we were able to clarify taxonomic uncertainties within S. cyanostictus, an endangered lizard that inhabits a narrow strip of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico. We included, for the first time in a phylogenetic analysis, lizards from the three populations of S. cyanostictus recognized so far (East Coahuila, West Coahuila and Nuevo León). Phylogenetic analysis corroborates the hypothesis of two separately evolving lineages, i.e. the East and West Coahuila populations, as proposed in a previous study. We also found a distant phylogenetic relationship between the lizards from Nuevo León and those of East and West Coahuila. Finally, based on the species delimitation results, we propose and describe a new species of Sceloporus: S. gadsdeni sp. nov.

Paraconsistent analysis network applied in the treatment of Raman spectroscopy data to support medical diagnosis of skin cancer.

Paraconsistent logic (PL) is a type of non-classical logic that accepts contradiction as a fundamental concept and has produced valuable results in the analysis of uncertainties. In this work, algorithms based on a type of PL-paraconsistent annotated logic of two values (PAL2v)-are interconnected into a network of paraconsistent analysis (PANnet). PANnet was applied to a dataset comprising 146 Raman spectra of skin tissue biopsy fragments of which 30 spectra were determined to represent normal skin tissue (N), 96 were determined to represent tissue with basal cell carcinoma, and 19 were determined to be tissue with melanoma (MEL). In this database, paraconsistent analysis was able to correctly discriminate 136 out of a total of 145 fragments, obtaining a 93.793 % correct diagnostic accuracy. The application of PAL2v in the analysis of Raman spectroscopy signals produces better discrimination of cells than conventional statistical processes and presents a good graphical overview through its associated lattice structure. The technique of PAL2v-based data processing can be fundamental in the development of a computational tool dedicated to support the diagnosis of skin cancer using Raman spectroscopy.

An expression of uncertainty and its application to positioning: a quality-metric and optimal ranges for the identification of cells with RFID.

Here we devise an approach to model error and its propagation. Without approximations, we define the uncertainty of a measurement as its maximum possible error (maper). Thus, we propose and solve analytically two optimization problems. The one designed to determine the uncertainty of a measurement, the other specifically designed to optimize the accuracy of a RFID location system. The usefulness of this general approach is shown by applying it to the particular instance of estimating the coordinates of a person in real-time using RFID devices. This way, exact formulae to evaluate the quality of this measurement are mathematically deduced, which is useful, for example, to predict whether an inexpensive RFID location technology can meet a desired quality standard or not. The second optimization problem proposed here defines an optimal range (orange) for the RFID devices employed. Again, analytically, its exact formulae were derived. We propose an approach to distribute RFID tags for a positioning system based solely on RFID technology. In the light of the formulae, its quality is good enough as to locate emergency phone calls in real time. We found that key to an optimal performance is the range used and the distance between consecutive tags.

Viabilidade econômica e de risco da produção de tomate no município de Cambuci/RJ, Brasil / Economic feasibility and risk of tomato production in the municipality of Cambuci/RJ, Brazil

A tomaticultura possui grande importância econômica e social para muitos municípios produtores e para todos os demais municípios participantes do mercado consumidor. O tomate sofre elevadas variações de preços no mercado. Tal característica expõe produtores a riscos e incertezas de preços. Nesse sentido, questiona-se o que, quanto, como, e para quem produzir? Objetivou-se analisar a viabilidade econômica da produção de tomate de mesa no município de Cambuci/RJ. Para obter os indicadores de viabilidade econômica, foram estimados o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). Para determinar as incertezas do empreendimento, foi realizada a análise de sensibilidade. O risco envolvido na tomaticultura deste município foi avaliado por meio da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados mostraram indicadores econômicos satisfatórios para o período analisado. A análise de sensibilidade revelou que o preço de venda do tomate foi a variável com maior efeito sobre os resultados econômicos da atividade, seguido pelo custo da mão de obra. A simulação de Monte Carlo demonstrou que é baixa a probabilidade dos produtores de tomate obterem VPL negativo. Assim, conclui-se que o cultivo de tomate em Cambuci/RJ apresenta-se como alternativa viável para seus produtores, entretanto, variações pessimistas de preços podem inviabilizar esta atividade.

The tomato production has great economic and social importance for many municipalities producers and for all other municipalities participating in the consumer market. The tomato suffers high price changes in the market. This feature exposes producers to risks and uncertainties price. In this sense, the question is what, how, how much, and for whom to produce? This study aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of production of fresh market tomatoes in Cambuci/RJ. For the economic viability indicators were estimated Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). To determine the uncertainties of the project was carried out sensitivity analysis. To assess the risk involved in tomato production this municipality Monte Carlo simulation was used. The results showed satisfactory economic indicators for the period analyzed. The sensitivity analysis showed that the selling price of tomato was the variable with the greatest effect on the results of economic activity, followed by the cost of hand labor. The Monte Carlo simulation showed that there is low probability of obtaining negative NPV for tomato growers. Thus, it was concluded that the cultivation of tomato in Cambuci/RJ presents itself as a viable alternative to producers, however, pessimistic variations in prices may derail this activity.

Viabilidade econômica e de risco da produção de tomate no município de Cambuci/RJ, Brasil / Economic feasibility and risk of tomato production in the municipality of Cambuci/RJ, Brazil

A tomaticultura possui grande importância econômica e social para muitos municípios produtores e para todos os demais municípios participantes do mercado consumidor. O tomate sofre elevadas variações de preços no mercado. Tal característica expõe produtores a riscos e incertezas de preços. Nesse sentido, questiona-se o que, quanto, como, e para quem produzir? Objetivou-se analisar a viabilidade econômica da produção de tomate de mesa no município de Cambuci/RJ. Para obter os indicadores de viabilidade econômica, foram estimados o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). Para determinar as incertezas do empreendimento, foi realizada a análise de sensibilidade. O risco envolvido na tomaticultura deste município foi avaliado por meio da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados mostraram indicadores econômicos satisfatórios para o período analisado. A análise de sensibilidade revelou que o preço de venda do tomate foi a variável com maior efeito sobre os resultados econômicos da atividade, seguido pelo custo da mão de obra. A simulação de Monte Carlo demonstrou que é baixa a probabilidade dos produtores de tomate obterem VPL negativo. Assim, conclui-se que o cultivo de tomate em Cambuci/RJ apresenta-se como alternativa viável para seus produtores, entretanto, variações pessimistas de preços podem inviabilizar esta atividade.(AU)

The tomato production has great economic and social importance for many municipalities producers and for all other municipalities participating in the consumer market. The tomato suffers high price changes in the market. This feature exposes producers to risks and uncertainties price. In this sense, the question is what, how, how much, and for whom to produce? This study aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of production of fresh market tomatoes in Cambuci/RJ. For the economic viability indicators were estimated Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). To determine the uncertainties of the project was carried out sensitivity analysis. To assess the risk involved in tomato production this municipality Monte Carlo simulation was used. The results showed satisfactory economic indicators for the period analyzed. The sensitivity analysis showed that the selling price of tomato was the variable with the greatest effect on the results of economic activity, followed by the cost of hand labor. The Monte Carlo simulation showed that there is low probability of obtaining negative NPV for tomato growers. Thus, it was concluded that the cultivation of tomato in Cambuci/RJ presents itself as a viable alternative to producers, however, pessimistic variations in prices may derail this activity.(AU)

Incertezas de pacientes no sistema público de saúde / Uncertainties of patients in the Brazilian public health system

Análises que objetivam compreender de que maneira sujeitos lidam com processos de saúde/doença geralmente dão ênfase aos modos como estes inserem suas vivências concretas em quadros avaliativos abstratos para, a partir daí, definirem ações a serem executadas. Isto posto, este artigo questiona o rendimento de tais abordagens no entendimento das experiências de pacientes do sistema público de saúde. As análises são empreendidas com base nos resultados de pesquisa realizada em instituição pública de saúde do Distrito Federal, na qual foram reconstituídos itinerários terapêuticos de seus pacientes. A pesquisa indicou que suas trajetórias são atravessadas por incertezas de diversas ordens. Tendo em vista a relevância destas e o fato de que de modo algum impedem o desenvolvimento de seus tratamentos médicos, o artigo discute como os pacientes lidam com essas incertezas e quais relações elas estabelecem com o conjunto de suas experiências. Argumenta então que suas incertezas derivam não de características imanentes a estes sujeitos, mas das relações que estabelecem com os saberes médicos e com as organizações institucionais para efetivação desses saberes, constituídas pelas instituições públicas de saúde. Mais além, demonstra que as apreciações, classificações etc. dos pacientes não se dirigem principalmente aos processos de saúde/doença em sentido estrito, mas aos mecanismos que possibilitam relações de maior sucesso com as organizações institucionais por meio das quais eles obtêm seus tratamentos.

Analyses aiming to understand how subjects deal with processes of health/disease usually emphasize the ways in which they introduce their concrete experiences into abstract evaluative frames, in order to define actions to be implemented. This being stated, this paper questions the efficiency of such approaches in understanding the experiences of the patients of Brazilian's public health system. The analyses are undertaken based on the results of research made in a public health institution of the Brazilian Federal District, in which therapeutic itineraries of its patients were reconstituted. The research indicated that their trajectories are crossed by several orders of uncertainties. Considering their relevance and the fact that in any way it impedes the promotion of their medical treatment, the paper discusses how patients deal with these uncertainties and which relationships are established with the ensemble of their experiences. It is then argued that their uncertainties do not come from the inherent characteristics of the patients but from the relations they establish with (1) the medical knowledge and (2) the institutional organizations in which this knowledge is accomplished by the public health institutions. Further it shows that the patients' assessments, classifications etc. are not mainly directed to the processes of health/disease in the strict sense, but to the mechanisms that allow more successful relationships with the institutional organizations through which they receive their treatment.