Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption.

Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can inform climate policy1-3. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate4-6. Previous estimates have suggested that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC7,8, but they rely on models9-11 that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data2,3,6,7,12,13. Here we show that the release of one ton of CO2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between -US$3 and -US$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on an architecture that integrates global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate local damages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption owing to warming, which requires critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 annual global electricity consumption increases by about 4.5 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), whereas direct consumption of other fuels declines by about 11.3 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in GMST. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research7,8, because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the twenty-first century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight14.

Promising Nanoparticle-Based Heat Transfer Fluids-Environmental and Techno-Economic Analysis Compared to Conventional Fluids.

Providing optimal operating conditions is one of the major challenges for effective heating or cooling systems. Moreover, proper adjustment of the heat transfer fluid is also important from the viewpoint of the correct operation, maintenance, and cost efficiency of these systems. Therefore, in this paper, a detailed review of recent work on the subject of conventional and novel heat transfer fluid applications is presented. Particular attention is paid to the novel nanoparticle-based materials used as heat transfer fluids. In-depth comparison of environmental, technical, and economic characteristics is discussed. Thermophysical properties including thermal conductivity, specific heat, density, viscosity, and Prandtl number are compared. Furthermore, the possible benefits and limitations of various transfer fluids in the fields of application are taken into account.

The effects on mortality and the associated financial costs of wood heater pollution in a regional Australian city.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual burden of mortality and the associated health costs attributable to air pollution from wood heaters in Armidale. DESIGN: Health impact assessment (excess annual mortality and financial costs) based upon atmospheric PM2.5 measurements. SETTING: Armidale, a regional Australian city (population, 24 504) with high levels of air pollution in winter caused by domestic wood heaters, 1 May 2018 - 30 April 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated population exposure to PM2.5 from wood heaters; estimated numbers of premature deaths and years of life lost. RESULTS: Fourteen premature deaths (95% CI, 12-17 deaths) per year, corresponding to 210 (95% CI, 172-249) years of life lost, are attributable to long term exposure to wood heater PM2.5 pollution in Armidale. The estimated financial cost is $32.8 million (95% CI, $27.0-38.5 million), or $10 930 (95% CI, $9004-12 822) per wood heater per year. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial mortality and financial cost attributable to wood heating in Armidale indicates that effective policies are needed to reduce wood heater pollution, including public education about the effects of wood smoke on health, subsidies that encourage residents to switch to less polluting home heating (perhaps as part of an economic recovery package), assistance for those affected by wood smoke from other people, and regulations that reduce wood heater use (eg, by not permitting new wood heaters and requiring existing units to be removed when houses are sold).

Automated pipeline framework for processing of large-scale building energy time series data.

Commercial buildings account for one third of the total electricity consumption in the United States and a significant amount of this energy is wasted. Therefore, there is a need for "virtual" energy audits, to identify energy inefficiencies and their associated savings opportunities using methods that can be non-intrusive and automated for application to large populations of buildings. Here we demonstrate virtual energy audits applied to large populations of buildings' time-series smart-meter data using a systematic approach and a fully automated Building Energy Analytics (BEA) Pipeline that unifies, cleans, stores and analyzes building energy datasets in a non-relational data warehouse for efficient insights and results. This BEA pipeline is based on a custom compute job scheduler for a high performance computing cluster to enable parallel processing of Slurm jobs. Within the analytics pipeline, we introduced a data qualification tool that enhances data quality by fixing common errors, while also detecting abnormalities in a building's daily operation using hierarchical clustering. We analyze the HVAC scheduling of a population of 816 buildings, using this analytics pipeline, as part of a cross-sectional study. With our approach, this sample of 816 buildings is improved in data quality and is efficiently analyzed in 34 minutes, which is 85 times faster than the time taken by a sequential processing. The analytical results for the HVAC operational hours of these buildings show that among 10 building use types, food sales buildings with 17.75 hours of daily HVAC cooling operation are decent targets for HVAC savings. Overall, this analytics pipeline enables the identification of statistically significant results from population based studies of large numbers of building energy time-series datasets with robust results. These types of BEA studies can explore numerous factors impacting building energy efficiency and virtual building energy audits. This approach enables a new generation of data-driven buildings energy analysis at scale.

Research on the forward-looking behavior judgment of heating oil price evolution based on complex networks.

Analyzing and predicting the trend of price fluctuation has been receiving more and more attention, as price risk has become the focus of risk control research in heating oil futures market. A novel time series prediction model combined with the complex network method is put forward in the paper. First of all, this paper counts the cumulative time interval of different nodes in the network, and fits its growth trend with the Fourier model. Then a novel price fluctuation prediction model is established based on the effective information such as some topology properties extracted from the network. The results show that the Fourier model can predict the emergence time of new nodes in the next stage, and the established price fluctuation prediction model can infer the names of nodes in the prediction interval, so as to determine the forward-looking behavior of price evolution. Besides, liken to the NAR neural network, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method also show superiority, which has important theoretical value and academic significance for early warning and prediction of price behavior in the heating oil futures market.

Effect of the PiAstra Benchtop Flash-Heating Pasteurizer on Immune Factors of Donor Human Milk.

INTRODUCTION: PiAstra is a simulated flash-heat (FH) pasteurization temperature monitoring system designed using Raspberry Pi technology for the pasteurization of human milk. This study analyzed the effect of the PiAstra FH method on human milk immune components (immunoglobulin A [IgA] and lactoferrin activity). METHODS: Donor milk samples (N = 45) were obtained from a human milk bank, and pasteurized. Concentrations of IgA and lactoferrin activity were compared to their unpasteurized controls using the Student's t test. RESULTS: The PiAstra FH method retained 34.2% of IgA (p < 0.0001) and 40.4% of lactoferrin activity (p < 0.0001) when compared to unpasteurized controls. The retention of IgA by the PiAstra is similar to previous FH studies, while retention of lactoferrin activity was higher than previous FH studies. DISCUSSION: The high-technology, low-cost PiAstra system, which is able to retain vital immune components of human milk, provides safe donor milk for low-resourced settings. This enables the use of pasteurized donor milk when human milk is not available, potentially saving vulnerable infant lives.

Residual Inequity: Assessing the Unintended Consequences of New York City's Clean Heat Transition.

Energy policies and public health are intimately intertwined. In New York City, a series of policies, known as the Clean Heat Program (CHP), were designed to reduce air pollution by banning residual diesel fuel oils, #6 in 2015 and #4 by 2030. This measure is expected to yield environmental and public health benefits over time. While there is near-universal compliance with the #6 ban, a substantial number of buildings still use #4. In this paper, geographic analysis and qualitative interviews with stakeholders were used to interrogate the CHP's policy implementation in Northern Manhattan and the Bronx. A total of 1724 (53%) of all residential residual fuel burning buildings are located in this region. Stakeholders reflected mostly on the need for the program, and overall reactions to its execution. Major findings include that government partnerships with non-governmental organizations were effectively employed. However, weaknesses with the policy were also identified, including missed opportunities for more rapid transitions away from residual fuels, unsuccessful outreach efforts, cost-prohibitive conversion opportunities, and (the perception of) a volatile energy market for clean fuels. Ultimately, this analysis serves as a case study of a unique and innovative urban policy initiative to improve air quality and, consequently, public health.

Minimising the risk of Mycobacterium chimaera infection during cardiopulmonary bypass by the removal of heater-cooler units from the operating room.

INTRODUCTION: Mycobacterium chimaera ( M. chimaera) is a recently characterised bacterium that can cause life-threatening infections in small numbers of patients who undergo cardiopulmonary bypass during cardiac surgery. The likely mode of transmission is thought to occur through aerosolisation from contaminated water reservoirs. The airborne bacteria then contaminate the surgical field, leading to an infection months or even years later. The preferred practical solution to disrupt the transmission of these airborne bacteria to the patient is to remove the heater-cooler units (HCUs) from the operating room (OR). We describe a process of achieving this in order to provide information to guide other institutions who wish to do a similar thing. METHODS: A multidisciplinary team was assembled to work on the project. The planning phase involved trialling different OR layouts and simulating the alterations in the HCU circuit function. The changes to the OR were made over a weekend to minimise disruption to the operating schedule. RESULTS: The HCU was moved to the dirty utility room adjacent to the OR. Standard operating procedures (SOP) and risk assessments were made to enable this to be used for a dual purpose. One of the ORs was reconfigured to allow the cardiopulmonary bypass machine to be located close to the HCU in the dirty utility room. The total cost of the alterations was £6,158. Although we have provided a physical barrier to interrupt patient exposure to aerosolised M. chimaera from HCUs, we continue to perform cultures and decontamination as per the national recommendations. The SOP was designed to be auditable to ensure compliance with the protocols. CONCLUSIONS: We show a method by which the HCU can be removed from the OR in a relatively low-cost, straightforward and practical manner.

A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand.

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months.

Electromagnetic induction of foam-based nanoscale zerovalent iron (NZVI) particles to thermally enhance non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) volatilization in unsaturated porous media: Proof of concept.

Nanoscale zerovalent iron (NZVI) is a promising remediation agent for volatile organic compound (VOC) contamination in saturated sub-surfaces, but is rarely applied to the vadose zone as there are not enough water molecules in the unsaturated zone to participate in reductive dechlorination. In this study, we evaluated the possibility of using foam as a carrying vehicle to emplace NZVI in unsaturated porous media followed by the application of low frequency-electromagnetic field (LF-EMF) to enhance VOC volatilization in laboratory batch reactors. We found that the optimal condition for generating foam-based NZVI (F-NZVI) was using sodium lauryl ether sulfate (SLES) at a concentration of 3% (w/w) and a N2 flow rate of 500 mL/min. Also, F-NZVI could carry as much as 41.31 g/L of NZVI in the liquid phase of the foam and generate heat to raise ΔT to 77 °C in 15 min under an applied LF-EMF (150 kHz and 13 A). Under these conditions, F-NZVI together with LF-EMF enhanced trichloroethylene (TCE) volatilization from TCE-dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) in unsaturated sand by 39.51 ± 6.59-fold compared to reactors without LF-EMF application. This suggested that using F-NZVI together with LF-EMF could theoretically be an alternative to radio frequency heating (RFH) as it requires a much lower irradiation frequency (336-fold lower), which should result in significantly lower capital and operational costs compared to RFH.

A practical review of energy saving technology for ageing populations.

Fuel poverty is a critical issue for a globally ageing population. Longer heating/cooling requirements combine with declining incomes to create a problem in need of urgent attention. One solution is to deploy technology to help elderly users feel informed about their energy use, and empowered to take steps to make it more cost effective and efficient. This study subjects a broad cross section of energy monitoring and home automation products to a formal ergonomic analysis. A high level task analysis was used to guide a product walk through, and a toolkit approach was used thereafter to drive out further insights. The findings reveal a number of serious usability issues which prevent these products from successfully accessing an important target demographic and associated energy saving and fuel poverty outcomes. Design principles and examples are distilled from the research to enable practitioners to translate the underlying research into high quality design-engineering solutions.

Optimal bus temperature for thermal comfort during a cool day.

A challenge for electric buses is to minimize heating and cooling power to maximally extend the driving range, but still provide sufficient thermal comfort for the driver and passengers. Therefore, we investigated the thermal sensation (TS) and thermal comfort (TC) of passengers in buses during a cool day (temperature 13.4 ± 0.5 °C, relative humidity (RH) 60 ± 5.8%) typical for the Dutch temperate maritime climate. 28 Males and 72 females rated TS and TC and gave information on age, stature, body weight and worn garments. The temperature in the bus of 22.5 ± 1.1 °C and RH of 59.9 ± 5.8% corresponded to a slightly warm feeling (TS = 0.85 ± 1.06) and TC of 0.39 ± 0.65. TS related significantly to bus temperature, clothing insulation and age. Linear regression based on these parameters showed that the temperature in the bus corresponding to TC = 0 and TS = 0 would have been 20.9 ± 0.6 °C. In conclusion, a 1.6 °C lower bus temperature during the investigated cool day probably would have led to less thermal discomfort and energy savings of electrical busses. The methodology to relate climatic measurements to subjective assessments is currently employed in a wider climatic range and may prove to be useful to find a better balance between thermal comfort and energy savings of the bus.

A cost-benefit analysis of a pellet boiler with electrostatic precipitator versus conventional biomass technology: A case study of an institutional boiler in Syracuse, New York.

BACKGROUND: Biomass facilities have received increasing attention as a strategy to increase the use of renewable fuels and decrease greenhouse gas emissions from the electric generation and heating sectors, but these facilities can potentially increase local air pollution and associated health effects. Comparing the economic costs and public health benefits of alternative biomass fuel, heating technology, and pollution control technology options provides decision-makers with the necessary information to make optimal choices in a given location. METHODS: For a case study of a combined heat and power biomass facility in Syracuse, New York, we used stack testing to estimate emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for both the deployed technology (staged combustion pellet boiler with an electrostatic precipitator) and a conventional alternative (wood chip stoker boiler with a multicyclone). We used the atmospheric dispersion model AERMOD to calculate the contribution of either fuel-technology configuration to ambient primary PM2.5 in a 10km×10km region surrounding the facility, and we quantified the incremental contribution to population mortality and morbidity. We assigned economic values to health outcomes and compared the health benefits of the lower-emitting technology with the incremental costs. RESULTS: In total, the incremental annualized cost of the lower-emitting pellet boiler was $190,000 greater, driven by a greater cost of the pellet fuel and pollution control technology, offset in part by reduced fuel storage costs. PM2.5 emissions were a factor of 23 lower with the pellet boiler with electrostatic precipitator, with corresponding differences in contributions to ambient primary PM2.5 concentrations. The monetary value of the public health benefits of selecting the pellet-fired boiler technology with electrostatic precipitator was $1.7 million annually, greatly exceeding the differential costs even when accounting for uncertainties. Our analyses also showed complex spatial patterns of health benefits given non-uniform age distributions and air pollution levels. CONCLUSIONS: The incremental investment in a lower-emitting staged combustion pellet boiler with an electrostatic precipitator was well justified by the population health improvements over the conventional wood chip technology with a multicyclone, even given the focus on only primary PM2.5 within a small spatial domain. Our analytical framework could be generalized to other settings to inform optimal strategies for proposed new facilities or populations.

The short-term health and psychosocial impacts of domestic energy efficiency investments in low-income areas: a controlled before and after study.

BACKGROUND: Research suggests that living in fuel poverty and cold homes contributes to poor physical and mental health, and that interventions targeted at those living in poor quality housing may lead to health improvements. However, little is known about the socio-economic intermediaries and processes that contribute to better health. This study examined the relationship between energy efficiency investments to homes in low-income areas and mental and physical health of residents, as well as a number of psychosocial outcomes likely to be part of the complex relationship between energy efficiency measures and health outcomes. METHODS: A quasi-experimental field study with a controlled pretest-posttest design was conducted (intervention n = 364; control n = 418) to investigate the short-term health and psychosocial impacts of a domestic energy efficiency programme that took place across Wales between 2013 and 2015. Survey data were collected in the winters before and after installation of energy efficiency measures, including external wall insulation. The study used a multilevel modelling repeated measures approach to analyse the data. RESULTS: The energy efficiency programme was not associated with improvements in physical and mental health (using the SF-12v2 physical and mental health composite scales) or reductions in self-reported respiratory and asthma symptoms. However, the programme was associated with improved subjective wellbeing (B = 0.38, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.65), as well as improvements in a number of psychosocial outcomes, including increased thermal satisfaction (OR = 3.83, 95% CI 2.40 to 5.90), reduced reports of putting up with feeling cold to save heating costs (OR = 0.49, CI = 0.25 to 0.94), fewer financial difficulties (B = -0.15, 95% CI -0.25 to -0.05), and reduced social isolation (OR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.77). CONCLUSION: The study showed that investing in energy efficiency in low-income communities does not lead to self-reported health improvements in the short term. However, investments increased subjective wellbeing and were linked to a number of psychosocial intermediaries that are conducive to better health. It is likely that better living conditions contribute to improvements in health outcomes in the longer term. Better understanding of the impacts on recipients of energy efficiency schemes, could improve targeting of future fuel poverty policies.

Impact of energy efficiency interventions in public housing buildings on cold-related mortality: a case-crossover analysis.

Background: Interventions to mitigate fuel poverty and particularly energy efficiency façade retrofitting (EEFR) have demonstrated positive impacts on health but the impacts of EEFR interventions on cold-related mortality have not been studied in depth. We evaluated the impact of EEFR interventions in Barcelona on the association between cold outdoor temperatures and mortality (from all natural causes and from neoplasms, circulatory system and respiratory system causes) from 1986 to 2012. Methods: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used. Relative risks (RR) for death related to extreme cold (lowest fifth percentile) in the no-intervention and intervention groups were obtained for temperature lag windows covering the day of the death and the previous 20 days (0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-14, 15-17, 18-20). The statistical significance of the observed changes was evaluated using the RR for the cold temperature-intervention interaction. Results: In men, interventions significantly increased the extreme cold-death association for the lag window 15-17 [interaction RR 2.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-4.36]. The impacts were stronger for respiratory system causes and in men aged 75 or older. In women, on lag window 0-2, the extreme cold-death association was not significantly reduced when analysing all natural causes of death (interaction RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.21-1.01), but it was reduced significantly when analysing only deaths from neoplasms, circulatory system and respiratory system causes together. The impacts were stronger in women who died from circulatory system causes, in women with no education and in those aged 75 or older. Conclusions: EEFR interventions had differentiated effects on cold-related mortality in men and women. Differentiated effects were also observed by cause, educational level and age.

Understanding 'energy insecurity' and why it matters to health.

Energy insecurity is a multi-dimensional construct that describes the interplay between physical conditions of housing, household energy expenditures and energy-related coping strategies. The present study uses an adapted grounded theory approach based on in-depth interviews with 72 low-income families to advance the concept of energy insecurity. Study results illustrate the layered components of energy insecurity by providing rich and nuanced narratives of the lived experiences of affected households. Defined as an inability to adequately meet basic household energy needs, this paper outlines the key dimensions of energy insecurity-economic, physical and behavioral- and related adverse environmental, health and social consequences. By thoroughly examining this understudied phenomenon, this article serves to raise awareness of an increasingly relevant issue that merits more attention in research and policy.

Economic, Environmental and Health Implications of Enhanced Ventilation in Office Buildings.

INTRODUCTION: Current building ventilation standards are based on acceptable minimums. Three decades of research demonstrates the human health benefits of increased ventilation above these minimums. Recent research also shows the benefits on human decision-making performance in office workers, which translates to increased productivity. However, adoption of enhanced ventilation strategies is lagging. We sought to evaluate two of the perceived potential barriers to more widespread adoption-Economic and environmental costs. METHODS: We estimated the energy consumption and associated per building occupant costs for office buildings in seven U.S. cities, representing different climate zones for three ventilation scenarios (standard practice (20 cfm/person), 30% enhanced ventilation, and 40 cfm/person) and four different heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system strategies (Variable Air Volume (VAV) with reheat and a Fan Coil Unit (FCU), both with and without an energy recovery ventilator). We also estimated emissions of greenhouse gases associated with this increased energy usage, and, for comparison, converted this to the equivalent number of vehicles using greenhouse gas equivalencies. Lastly, we paired results from our previous research on cognitive function and ventilation with labor statistics to estimate the economic benefit of increased productivity associated with increasing ventilation rates. RESULTS: Doubling the ventilation rate from the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers minimum cost less than $40 per person per year in all climate zones investigated. Using an energy recovery ventilation system significantly reduced energy costs, and in some scenarios led to a net savings. At the highest ventilation rate, adding an ERV essentially neutralized the environmental impact of enhanced ventilation (0.03 additional cars on the road per building across all cities). The same change in ventilation improved the performance of workers by 8%, equivalent to a $6500 increase in employee productivity each year. Reduced absenteeism and improved health are also seen with enhanced ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: The health benefits associated with enhanced ventilation rates far exceed the per-person energy costs relative to salary costs. Environmental impacts can be mitigated at regional, building, and individual-level scales through the transition to renewable energy sources, adoption of energy efficient systems and ventilation strategies, and promotion of other sustainable policies.

Feasibility study for retrofitting biogas cogeneration systems to district heating in South Korea.

A feasibility study was performed to assess the technical and economic merits of retrofitting biogas-based cogeneration systems to district heating networks. Three district heating plants were selected as candidates for accommodating heat recovery from nearby waste treatment stations, where a massive amount of biogas can be produced on a regular basis. The scenario involves constructing cogeneration systems in each waste treatment station and producing electricity and heat. The amounts of biogas production for each station are estimated based on the monthly treatment capacities surveyed over the most recent years. Heat produced by the cogeneration system is first consumed on site by the waste treatment system to keep the operating temperature at a proper level. If surplus heat is available, it will be transported to the nearest district heating plant. The year-round operation of the cogeneration system was simulated to estimate the electricity and heat production. We considered cost associated with the installation of the cogeneration system and piping as initial investments. Profits from selling electricity and recovering heat are counted as income, while costs associated with buying biogas are expenses. Simple payback periods of 2-10 years were projected under the current economic conditions of South Korea. We found that most of the proposed scenarios can contribute to both energy savings and environmental protection.