Percepção da sociedade em relação ao controle populacional de vertebrados em condições de sinantropia no município de Niterói, RJ / Perception of society about the management of synanthropic vertebrates populations in the municipality of Niterói, RJ / Percepción de la sociedad sobre el control poblacional de los vertebrados en condiciones sinópticas en el municipio de Niterói, RJ

Esse estudo seccional, realizado no período 2014-2015, com aplicação de questionários, teve por objetivo conhecer a percepção sobre vertebrados em condição de sinantropia e a opinião sobre controle populacional para a população do município de Niterói, RJ. Dentre os 474 entrevistados, 76,8% aceitavam o controle populacional para ratos, 63,3% para pombos, 40,5% para cães, 33,8% para gatos, 25,5% para morcegos, 16,5% para serpentes e 14,1% para gambás. As serpentes foram os animais mais associados ao medo (59,1%) e risco de agressão (47,7%), pombos (89,2%) e morcegos ao risco de doenças (57,4%), ratos à nojo/repulsa (56,6%), gambás à natureza (73,8%), cães à companhia (79,8%), e gatos à amizade (57,4%). O estudo demonstrou que as relações dos humanos com os animais podem ser complexas, ambíguas e paradoxais, e fornece dados que poderão ser utilizados para políticas públicas de manejo dessas espécies.(AU)

This study (sectional investigation), in the 2014-2015, using questionnaires, aimed to understand the perception of vertebrates in synanthropic conditions and the opinion about their population control for the population of the municipality the Niterói, RJ. Among the 474 people interviewed, 76.8% accepted population control for rats, 63.3% for pigeons, 40.5% for dogs, 33.8% for cats, 25.5 % for bats, 16.5% for snakes and 14.1% for possums. Snakes were the animals most associated with the representation of fear (59.1%) and risk of aggression (47.7%), pigeons (89.2%) and bats with risk of disease (57.4%), rats with disgust and repulsion (56.6%), possums with nature (73.8%), dogs with company (79.8%), and cats with friendship (57.4%). In addition to demonstrating how complex human relations with animals can be ambiguous and paradoxical, this study provides data that can be used for public policies for the management of these species.(AU)

El objetivo de este estudio fue conocer la percepción de los vertebrados en condiciones de sinantropía y la opinión sobre el control poblacional de la población del municipio de Niterói, RJ. Entre los 474 entrevistados, el 76,8% aceptó el control de la población de ratas, el 63,3% de palomas, el 40,5% de perros, el 33,8% de gatos, el 25,5% de murciélagos, el 16,5% de serpientes y el 14,1% de zarigüeyas. Las serpientes fueron los animales más asociados al miedo (59,1%) y al riesgo de agresión (47,7%), las palomas (89,2%) y los murciélagos al riesgo de enfermedad (57,4%), las ratas al asco/repulsión (56,6%), las zarigüeyas a la naturaleza (73,8%), los perros a la compañía (79,8%) y los gatos a la amistad (57,4%). El estudio demostró que las relaciones de los humanos con los animales pueden ser complejas, ambiguas y paradójicas, y aporta datos que podrían utilizarse para las políticas públicas de gestión de estas especies.(AU)

Simulating the next steps in badger control for bovine tuberculosis in England.

Industry-led culling of badgers has occurred in England to reduce the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle for a number of years. Badger vaccination is also possible, and a move away from culling was "highly desirable" in a recent report to the UK government. Here we used an established simulation model to examine badger control option in a post-cull environment in England. These options included no control, various intermittent culling, badger vaccination and use of a vaccine combined with fertility control. The initial simulated cull led to a dramatic reduction in the number of infected badgers present, which increased slowly if there was no further badger management. All three approaches led to a further reduction in the number of infected badgers, with little to choose between the strategies. We do note that of the management strategies only vaccination on its own leads to a recovery of the badger population, but also an increase in the number of badgers that need to be vaccinated. We conclude that vaccination post-cull, appears to be particularly effective, compared to vaccination when the host population is at carrying capacity.

Situación y respuesta delfenómeno migratorio en salud [infografía]

Situación y respuesta delfenómeno migratorio en salud

Coronavírus: a COVID-19 na cidade - o impacto da desigualdade (parte 3/3)

Exposição do professor Carlos Hérnandez da Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, em que este analisa os possíveis impactos causados pelo coronavírus (COVID-19) na cidade São Paulo, levando em conta as características urbanas da cidade.

Relative age effects in Elite Chinese soccer players: Implications of the 'one-child' policy.

The relative age effect (RAE) refers to the asymmetrical distribution of birthdates in a cohort found in many achievement domains, particularly in sports with many participants like soccer. Given the uniqueness of the one-child policy in China, this study examined the existence of the RAE in elite Chinese male and female soccer players generally and relative to their playing position on the field. Results showed a clear and obvious RAE for all age groups (U20 male, U18 male, adult female and U18 female) with the observed birthdate distributions for each age group significantly different from expected distributions (p<0.05). Additionally, we noticed a differential RAE according to the players' position on the field as reflected in different effect sizes. In male players, the RAE was significantly greater in Defenders (DF) and Goalkeepers (GK) compared to Midfielders (MF) and Forwards (FW) (VDF = 0.266>VGK = 0.215>VMF = 0.178>VFW = 0.175). In female players, GKs had a larger RAE (VGK = 0.184>0.17, VDF = 0.143, VMF = 0.127, VFW = 0.116). To reduce the negative consequences associated with RAEs throughout player development systems, potential solutions are discussed.

Residents' Management of, and Attitudes Towards, the Dog Population on Two Mariana Islands.

This study reports the level of care dogs received from their caretakers and the attitudes of caretakers and non-caretakers toward dogs on the islands of Guam and Saipan. Surveys were collected from residents of Guam and Saipan (274 and 275, respectively) and analyzed using chi-squared tests. Dogs were the most popular companion animal (Guam 66.4%; Saipan 72% ownership) with a strong preference toward pedigree, male puppies (Guam 45.4%; Saipan 62.4%). The more preferred dogs were housed inside and fed dog food, while the less preferred local mixed-breed dogs were free-roaming and fed table scraps. Fifty-nine per cent of caretakers in Saipan and 22.8% of caretakers in Guam had never provided veterinary care to their dog. Generally, caretakers on both islands did not sterilize their dogs, which may result in the potential for unplanned litters and a growth in the dog population. Residents of both islands reported witnessing abusive acts toward dogs, despite dogs being reported as having an important role on the island. This paper aims to identify challenges in dog welfare and management options for the stray population.

Analysis of prenatal diagnosis before and after implementation of the two-child policy in northeastern China.

The universal two-child policy has now been fully implemented in China. This change requires adaptations to maternal care and childcare systems, but the features of prenatal diagnosis before and after implementation of the policy have not been reported.We conducted a retrospective study of 6736 prenatal cytogenetic diagnoses performed on amniotic fluid cells over a 4-year period, including 2 years before and after implementation of the second child policy. Amniotic fluid cells collected through amniocentesis were cultured, harvested, and stained for chromosome analysis using standard laboratory protocols.The study included 3222 pregnant women referred before implementation of the policy, which we used as a control group, and 3514 pregnant women referred after policy implementation as an investigational study group. There were significantly fewer pregnant women aged <25 years in the investigational group than in the control group (P < .001). There were no significant between-group differences for other pregnant women aged >31 years and 27-28 years old (P > .05). A total of 358 cases with chromosomal abnormalities were diagnosed, including 129 (4%, 129/3222) in the control group which was significantly lower than the 229 (6.5%, 229/3514) in the study group (P < .001). In particular, significantly more trisomy 21 cases were observed in the study group than in the control group (120 vs 59). More pregnant women underwent non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in the study group (46%) than in the control group (20%). In the study group, the average age of pregnant women who underwent NIPT was significantly higher than that of women who did not receive NIPT (P < .05). However, there were no significant between-group differences for the control group (P > .05).The number of cases with chromosomal abnormalities increased in northeastern China in the 2 years after implementation of the two-child policy. The number of pregnant women of advanced maternal age did not increase significantly, perhaps because of the widespread application of NIPT. However, the number of fetuses with Down syndrome increased significantly, suggesting that prenatal screening and diagnosis should be strengthened.

Changes of second-time mothers and their infants under the universal two-child policy in Changsha, China.

BACKGROUND: China announced the implementation of the universal two-child policy in Oct, 2015; every couple was allowed to have two children. However, its influences on maternal well-being and infants' outcomes are still to be discovered. OBJECTIVES: To detect influences of the universal two-child policy. To provide information for maternal health care under the new policy. STUDY DESIGN: This study enrolled 859 and 1230 women who delivered their second child (hereafter second-time mothers) before and after the policy's implementation, respectively, and the data included maternal demographic characteristics, gestational complications, delivery mode and infants' outcomes. RESULTS: After the policy's implementation, the proportion of second-time mothers with advanced age increased significantly. The advanced gestational age is well acknowledged to correlate with higher risk during the pregnancy, both for pregnant women and their babies. However, in our study, the incidence of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, placenta previa and postpartum haemorrhage decreased significantly after the introduction of the policy and no differences were noted in other gestational complications. Moreover, the hospitalization time was shortened, and caesarean delivery was chosen less frequently. As for the infants, foetal distress exhibited an alleviation and the incidence of premature labour and low birth weight decreased as well. CONCLUSIONS: Even though the age of second-time mothers increased after the introduction of the universal two-child policy, their general gestational health condition improved and their infants also exhibited a better outcome, which might be attributed to the improvement of China's maternal medical care system.

Pest demography critically determines the viability of synthetic gene drives for population control.

Synthetic gene drives offer a novel solution for the control of invasive alien species. CRISPR-based gene drives can positively bias their own inheritance, and comprise a DNA sequence that is replicated by homologous recombination. Since gene drives can be positioned to silence fertility or developmental genes, they could be used for population suppression. However, the production of resistant alleles following self-replication errors threatens the technology's viability for pest eradication in real-world applications. Further, a robust assessment of how pest demography impacts the expected progression of gene drives through populations is currently lacking. We used a deterministic, two-sex, birth-death model to investigate how demographic assumptions affect the efficiency of suppression drives for controlling invasive rodents on islands, for two different gene-drive strategies. We show that mass-action reproduction results in overly optimistic eradication outcomes when compared to the more realistic assumption of polygynous breeding. When polygyny was assumed, both gene-strategies failed due to the evolution of resistance unless a reproductive Allee effect (reduced reproductive rates at low population density) was also included; although model outcomes were highly sensitive to the strength of this effect. Increasing the size of the initial gene-drive introduction (up to 10% of carrying capacity) had little impact on population outcomes. Understanding the demography of a population targeted for eradication is critical before the viability of gene-drive suppression can be adequately assessed.

Epidemiological investigation of euthanasia in an Ontario animal shelter.

Objectives The objective was to evaluate factors associated with euthanasia in an animal shelter in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Methods Data from 3737 cats admitted to the shelter between January and December 2011 were evaluated. Results Overall, 1989/3737 (53%) of admitted cats were euthanized. Male cats had greater odds of being euthanized than females (odds ratio [OR] 1.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.05; P <0.001) and surrendered cats were more likely to be euthanized than strays (OR 38.0, 95% CI 14.8-97.69; P <0.001). Black cats were more likely to be euthanized than cats of another color (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.16-1.80; P <0.001). Cats that spent >5 days in the shelter were more likely to be euthanized than those that spent <5 days in the shelter (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.25-1.97; P <0.001). Cats that spent >20 days in the shelter were less likely to be euthanized than those that spent <5 days in the shelter (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.19-0.34; P <0.001). Age, an age quadratic term, neuter status and interactions among these variables were statistically significant; the odds of unneutered animals being euthanized was high and relatively stable across age groups, but in neutered animals the odds of being euthanized increased with age before plateauing in older cats. Conclusions and relevance With >50% of the cats admitted to the shelter in 2011 euthanized, it is important to understand the contributing risk factors that predispose shelter cats to euthanasia and what changes can be made to the shelter system and in owner education to lower the incidence of euthanasia.

The Astonishing Population Averted by China's Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions.

China launched an unprecedented program to control its population in 1971. Experts have dismissed the official estimate of 400 million births averted by this program as greatly exaggerated yet neglect to provide their own estimates. Counterfactual projections based on fertility declines in other countries suggest that China's program-averted population numbered 360-520 million as of 2015. The low end of this range is based on Vietnam-China's best national comparator, with a two-child program of its own-and the high end is based on a 16-country comparator selected, ironically, by critics of the official estimate. The latter comparator further implies that China's one-child program itself averted a population of 400 million by 2015, three-quarters of the total averted population. All such estimates are projected to double by 2060, due mostly to counterfactual population momentum. These and other findings presented herein affirm the astonishing impact of China's draconian policy choices and challenge the current consensus that rapid socioeconomic progress drove China's fertility well below two children per family. International comparisons of fertility and income suggest instead that China's very low fertility arrived two or three decades too soon. If China had not harshly enforced a norm of 1.5-children during the last quarter century, most mothers would have had two children, one-half birth higher than observed.

Use of the 10-Group Classification System to analyze how the population control policy change in China has affected cesarean delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the initial effect following the relaxation of China's population control policy on the cesarean delivery (CD) rate using the 10-Group Classification System (TGCS). METHODS: A retrospective study included all deliveries at a center in Nanjing, China, during 2014-2015. The deliveries were classified using the TGCS. The obstetric populations and the CD rates in each group were compared between 2014 and 2015. RESULTS: Overall, 11 006 deliveries were analyzed. The overall CD rate increased from 28.3% (1623/5737) in 2014 to 33.8% (1782/5269) in 2015 (P<0.001). The largest contributor to the overall CD rate-accounting for approximately one-third of all CDs-were nulliparous women with a single cephalic term pregnancy and induced labor or prelabor CD (group 2); the CD rate in this group increased from 27.2% to 31.4%. Moreover, the proportion of women with a single cephalic term pregnancy with previous CD (group 5) steeply increased from 6.4% to 10.4% of all deliveries; the CD rate in this group during 2014-2015 was 76.6%. CONCLUSION: With China ending its one-child policy, the characteristics of the obstetric population changed. Women with a single cephalic term pregnancy with previous CD were the largest contributor to the CD rate increase.

Impact of a 3-year pet management program on pet population and owner's perception.

Although pet population management programs have been established worldwide, few reports on program evaluation have been carried out to date. Accordingly, a 3-year longitudinal study has been carried out in a 4000 household neighborhood located within the metropolitan area of Curitiba, the eighth most populated city of Brazil. Visits were conducted and questionnaires completed to estimate and characterize the local pet population (animal sex, reproductive and vaccination status, street access). Care provided by owners, community perception on stray dog management and the possible changes were compared in these variables over time (2010 and 2013) were evaluated, after the establishment of a city pet population management program. In addition, associations between having children, owning dogs and cats, responsible pet ownership education and owner's perception on stray dogs were statistically tested. A total of 354/4000 (8.9%) household families were interviewed in 2010 and 70/354 (19.8%) of the same families again in 2013. No significant changes were found in overall number of dogs and cats and average pet age, animal care and owner's perception on stray dogs following the 3-year population management program. In 2010, an average of 1.6 dogs and 0.3 cats were found per family, with slightly more females (51.3% dogs and 51.1% cats), adults (4.0±3.5years for dogs and 2.1±2.4 for cats), intact (not neutered; 94.2% dogs and 84.0% cats) and lacking regular visit to veterinarian (71.6%). Although more families (53.1%) had children under 12 years old, no association was found between having children and having dogs and cats. Questionnaires revealed that owners perceived neutering/spaying to be the best pet population control method (42.4%), with "society" (50%) and "government" (49.4%) as responsible for pet population management. A significant positive association has been found between education level and the best way to control stray dogs (p=0.03), between having dogs and in favor of neutering/spaying (p=0.04) and considering neutering/spaying as the best control method (p=0.02). The chances of thinking the best way to control stray dogs by neutering/spaying and adoption were almost 2.0 fold higher than other methods. In conclusion, the present study has provided indicators (education level, having dogs) for pet population control program assessment and effectiveness evaluation. Moreover, this study may serve as a warning on the real long-term effect of such programs, which should be periodically evaluated to identify necessary adjustments and/or improvements.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. METHODS: A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50-69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010-2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies. RESULTS: An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies.

Body Size Changes Among National Collegiate Athletic Association New England Division III Football Players, 1956-2014: Comparison With Age-Matched Population Controls.

CONTEXT: Collegiate football programs encourage athletes to pursue high body weights. OBJECTIVE: To examine position-dependent trends over time in body size characteristics among football players in the National Collegiate Athletic Association Division III New England Small College Athletic Conference (NESCAC) from 1956 to 2014 and to compare the observed absolute and relative changes with those in age-matched male population controls. DESIGN: Descriptive laboratory study. SETTING: Medical school affiliated with a NESCAC institution. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: Football team rosters from the 10-member NESCAC schools, available as public documents, were analyzed along with body size data from general population males aged 20 to 29 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Body weight, height, and calculated body mass index were evaluated using analysis of variance, linear regression, and nonlinear regression to determine the distribution features of size variables and changes associated with time (year), school, and position. RESULTS: Among NESCAC linemen, absolute and relative changes over time in body weight and body mass index exceeded corresponding changes in the NHANES population controls. New England Small College Athletic Conference offensive linemen body weights increased by 37.5% from 1956 to 2014 (192 to 264 lb [86.4 to 118.8 kg]), compared with a 12% increase (164 to 184 lb [73.8 to 82.8 kg]) since 1961 in the NHANES population controls. Body mass index changed in parallel with body weight and exceeded 35 kg/m(2) in more than 30% of contemporary NESCAC offensive linemen. Among skill players in the NESCAC group, time-related changes in body size characteristics generally paralleled those in the NHANES controls. CONCLUSIONS: High body weight and body mass indices were evident in offensive linemen, even among those in Division III football programs with no athletic scholarships. These characteristics may be associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes. We need approaches to encourage risk modification in the postfootball lifestyles of these individuals.

Simulating free-roaming cat population management options in open demographic environments.

Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment.