The impact of environmental change on landslides, fatal landslides, and their triggers in Pakistan (2003-2019).

The actual impact of landslides in Pakistan is highly underestimated and has not been addressed to its full extent. This study focuses on the impact which landslides had in the last 17 years, with focus on mortality, gender of deceased, main triggers (landslides and fatal landslides), and regional identification of the hotspots in Pakistan. Our study identified 1089 landslides (including rockfalls, rockslides, mudslides, mudflows, debris flows) out of which 180 landslides were fatal and claimed lives of 1072 people. We found that rain (rainfall and heavy rainfall)-related landslides were the deadliest over the entire study period. The main trigger of landslides in Pakistan is heavy rainfall which comprises over 50% of the triggers for the landslide, and combined with normal rainfall, this rate climbs to over 63%. The second main reason for landslide occurrence is spontaneous (due to rock instability, erosion, climate change, and other geological elements) with landslides accounting for 22.3% of all the landslides. Landslides caused by rain-related events amounted to 41.67% of the fatalities, whereas spontaneous landslides caused 29.44% of the deaths and the human induced events accounted for 25.5% of the fatalities. The fatal landslides accounted for 19.53% deaths of the children. Our study also found that more than 48% of the deadly landslides occurred between the months of January to April, whereas the least fatal landslides occurred in the month of June which accounted for only 3% of all the fatal landslides in Pakistan.

Reply to: Charlier et al. 2018. Mudslide and/or animal attack are more plausible causes and circumstances of death for AL 288 ('Lucy'): a forensic anthropology analysis. Medico-Legal Journal 86(3) 139-142, 2018.

The Pliocene hominin fossil 'Lucy' (A.L. 288-1, Australopithecus afarensis) was discovered in the Afar region of Ethiopia in 1974 and dates to 3.18 million years in age. In Kappelman et al.,1 we presented the results of a detailed investigation of the skeleton that for the first time identified and described unusual bone-into-bone compressive fractures at several of the major long bone joints. Using multiple criteria, we concluded that these fractures are more likely to be perimortem than postmortem in nature. We next evaluated a number of possible mechanisms that could have produced these fractures and, on the basis of all of the evidence, hypothesised that a fall from considerable height, likely out of a tree, with its resulting vertical deceleration event, most closely matched the pattern of fractures preserved in the skeleton and was also the probable cause of death. Charlier et al. disagree with our approach and hypothesis, and instead present what they consider to be better evidence supporting two of the other possible mechanisms for breakage that we also investigated, a mudslide/flood, or an animal attack. We here show that the evidence presented by Charlier et al. is incorrectly interpreted, and that these two alternative hypotheses are less likely to be responsible for the fractures.

Mudslide and/or animal attack are more plausible causes and circumstances of death for AL 288 ('Lucy'): A forensic anthropology analysis.

Following a global morphological and micro-CT scan examination of the original and cast of the skeleton of Australopithecus afarensis AL 288 ('Lucy'), Kappelman et al. have recently proposed a diagnosis of a fall from a significant height (a tree) as a cause of her death. According to topographical data from the discovery site, complete re-examination of a high-quality resin cast of the whole skeleton and forensic experience, we propose that the physical process of a vertical deceleration cannot be the only cause for her observed injuries. Two different factors were involved: rolling and multiple impacts in the context of a mudslide and an animal attack with bite marks, multi-focal fractures and violent movement of the body. It is important to consider a differential diagnosis of the observed fossil lesions because environmental factors should not be excluded in this ancient archaeological context as with any modern forensic anthropological case.

The Vulnerability of People to Landslides: A Case Study on the Relationship between the Casualties and Volume of Landslides in China.

The lack of a detailed landslide inventory makes research on the vulnerability of people to landslides highly limited. In this paper, the authors collect information on the landslides that have caused casualties in China, and established the Landslides Casualties Inventory of China. 100 landslide cases from 2003 to 2012 were utilized to develop an empirical relationship between the volume of a landslide event and the casualties caused by the occurrence of the event. The error bars were used to describe the uncertainty of casualties resulting from landslides and to establish a threshold curve of casualties caused by landslides in China. The threshold curve was then applied to the landslide cases occurred in 2013 and 2014. The validation results show that the estimated casualties of the threshold curve were in good agreement with the real casualties with a small deviation. Therefore, the threshold curve can be used for estimating potential casualties and landslide vulnerability, which is meaningful for emergency rescue operations after landslides occurred and for risk assessment research.

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake.

The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes' induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

Risk factors for mortality in landslide- and flood-affected populations in Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: Assess mortality risk factors including age, sex, and disaster type, in the March 2010 floods and landslides in Eastern Uganda and to compare time period, cause, location, and receipt of medical care among landslide and flood fatalities. DESIGN: A stratified cluster survey was conducted of 802 affected households in community and camp locations. SETTING: Flood and landslide affected populations in the East Uganda the districts of Baduda and Butaleja. RESPONDENTS: Adult household members in 802 households were surveyed regarding household member deaths in the floods and landslides areas. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the odds of death associated with age, sex, and disaster type (flood or landslide). The secondary outcome measure was the odds of event (landslide or flood) among fatalities associated with sex, age, time period of death, and cause of death. RESULTS: The odds of death were significantly higher in landslide affected populations than in flood affected populations (OR 3.06, 95% CI 2.20-4.25, p < 0.001). Time period of death (p = 0.016), type of death (p < 0.001), death after seeking medical care (p = 0.033), month of death (p < 0.001), and cause of death (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased odds of death due to landslides as compared to floods. CONCLUSIONS: More deaths occurred due to landslides than floods, and landslide deaths were more immediate, with a majority occurring on the day of the event. Females and younger age groups faced a greater risk of death from the landslide than the flood.

Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia.

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5-14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.