The refinery of the future.

Fossil fuels-coal, oil and gas-supply most of the world's energy and also form the basis of many products essential for everyday life. Their use is the largest contributor to the carbon dioxide emissions that drive global climate change, prompting joint efforts to find renewable alternatives that might enable a carbon-neutral society by as early as 2050. There are clear paths for renewable electricity to replace fossil-fuel-based energy, but the transport fuels and chemicals produced in oil refineries will still be needed. We can attempt to close the carbon cycle associated with their use by electrifying refinery processes and by changing the raw materials that go into a refinery from fossils fuels to carbon dioxide for making hydrocarbon fuels and to agricultural and municipal waste for making chemicals and polymers. We argue that, with sufficient long-term commitment and support, the science and technology for such a completely fossil-free refinery, delivering the products required after 2050 (less fuels, more chemicals), could be developed. This future refinery will require substantially larger areas and greater mineral resources than is the case at present and critically depends on the capacity to generate large amounts of renewable energy for hydrogen production and carbon dioxide capture.

Optimizing renewable-based energy supply options for power generation in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia unveiled homegrown economic reform agenda aimed to achieve a lower-middle status by 2030 and sustain its economic growth to achieve medium-middle and higher-middle status by 2040 and 2050 respectively. In this study, we evaluated the optimal renewable energy mix for power generation and associated investment costs for the country to progressively achieve upper-middle-income countries by 2050. Two economic scenarios: business as usual and Ethiopia's homegrown reform agenda scenario were considered. The study used an Open Source energy Modeling System. The model results suggest: if projected power demand increases as anticipated in the homegrown reform agenda scenario, Ethiopia requires to expand the installed power capacity to 31.22GW, 112.45GW and 334.27GW to cover the current unmet and achieve lower, medium and higher middle-income status by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. The Ethiopian energy mix continues to be dominated by hydropower and starts gradually shifting to solar and wind energy development towards 2050 as a least-cost energy supply option. The results also indicate Ethiopia needs to invest about 70 billion US$ on power plant investments for the period 2021-2030 to achieve the lower-middle-income electricity per capita consumption target by 2030 and staggering cumulative investment in the order of 750 billion US$ from 2031 to 2050 inclusive to achieve upper-middle-income electricity consumption rates by 2050. Ethiopia has enough renewable energy potential to achieve its economic target. Investment and financial sourcing remain a priority challenge. The findings could be useful in supporting decision-making concerning socio-economic development and investment pathways in the country.

Predicting strike susceptibility and collision patterns of the common buzzard at wind turbine structures in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany.

With the increase in wind turbines, bird collisions have developed as a potential hazard. In the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, despite the on-going mitigation efforts of increasing the distances of wind turbines from the breeding areas of the more severely affected populations of red kites (Milvus milvus), the additional detrimental influences on the buzzard populations (Buteo buteo) have added to the challenges for wind power expansion. Using data on the regional distribution of the buzzards, along with their carcass detections around the wind turbines (WTs), we aimed to better understand their collision distribution patterns in relation to their habitat use patterns to predict their exposure to collision risk using boosted regression trees (BRTs). Additionally, we integrated the developed collision potential map with the regional density map of buzzards to identify areas of increased strike susceptibility in turbine installations. Our study showed that the buzzard collisions were primarily concentrated at the turbines situated at sensitive distances from the edges of watercourses (>1000 metres), as well as those along the edges of grasslands (>750 metres), in the green open areas around/areas with minimal settlements (750 metres-1750 metres), and along the edges of bushlands (>1500 metres), together explaining 58% of the variance in their collision distribution. Conclusively, our study is applicable to conservation because it demonstrates the identification of potential collision areas along with the causes of the collisions, in addition to demonstrating the benefits of incorporating a species collision dataset as a proxy for species presence into species distribution models to make informed management decisions to eventually combat biodiversity loss.

Does CO2 emissions-economic growth relationship reveal EKC in developing countries? Evidence from Kazakhstan.

This paper investigates the CO2 emissions-economic growth relationship in Kazakhstan for the period 1992-2013. Johansen, ARDLBT, DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR cointegration methods are used for robustness purpose. We start with the cubic functional form to rule out any misleading results that can be caused by misspecification. Although the estimation results suggest "U"-shaped relationship, the turning point of income is out of the period. It means that the impact of economic growth on CO2 is monotonically increasing in the long run indicating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis does not hold for Kazakhstan. Moreover, we calculate that the income elasticity of CO2 is about unity. The paper concludes that the Kazakhstani policymakers should focus on less energy-intensive sectors as well as using more renewable energy in order to avoid higher pollution effects of economic growth. They may also set new policy regulations for CO2 reduction.

Heterogeneous role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth and emissions reduction: evidence from a panel quantile regression.

This paper focuses on the heterogeneity of renewable energy consumption and economic growth and emissions by using panel quantile regression models and based on the data from 33 countries during the period of 1990-2016. The approach in this paper is to consider the heterogeneity of the distribution, and results reveal a long-term equilibrium relationship among renewable energy consumption, economic growth and emissions. The role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth and emissions is heterogeneous, and the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth is W-shaped. The relationship between renewable energy consumption and emissions has an inverted N-shape, and the relationship between non-renewable energy consumption and emission is a √-shaped curve. This paper supports the growth hypothesis and EKC. In addition, the energy consumption structure should be changed, and the use of renewable energy should be encouraged. This policy not only meets energy and economic growth demands but also improves environmental quality. In addition, countries with different levels of economic growth and emissions should adopt different policies instead of using the same policy.

Economic assessment and ranking of wind power potential using fuzzy-TOPSIS approach.

In this study, we proposed integrated tools to evaluate the wind power potential, economic viability, and prioritize 15 proposed sites for the installation of wind farms. Initially, we used modified Weibull distribution model coupled with power law to assess the wind power potential. Secondly, we employed value cost method to estimate per unit cost ($/kWh) of proposed sites. Lastly, we used Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (F-TOPSIS) to rank the best alternatives. The results indicate that Pakistan has enormous wind power potential that cost varies from 0.06 $/kWh to 0.58 $/kWh; thus, sites S12, S13, S14, and S15 are considered as the most economic viable locations for the installation of wind power project, while remaining sites are considered to be less important, due to other complexities. The further analysis using Fuzzy-TOPSIS method reveals that site S13 is the most optimal location followed by S12, S14, and S14 for the development of wind power project. We proposed that government should formulate wind power policy for the implementation of wind power projects in order to meet energy demand of the country.

Convergence of clean energy consumption-panel unit root test with sharp and smooth breaks.

This paper first visits the clean energy consumption for 21 OECD countries and 14 Emerging market countries through a panel unit root test with both sharp and smooth breaks covering the period from 1965 to 2016. The time-varying fitted intercepts of the estimation could better fit the path of clean energy consumption for selected countries. The empirical results suggest that not only sharp breaks should be considered, but also smooth breaks. The economic implications are insightful for the convergence of clean energy consumption for 22 of 35 countries. For USA, Canada, Austria, Germany, Greece, Ireland, UK, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Hungary, China, Philippines, and Thailand, the clean energy consumption is divergence. Policy encouragement policy would permanently affect not only clean energy consumption path, but also aggregate economic sectors related to consume clean energy.

The impact of natural gas and renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions and economic growth in two major emerging market economies.

For the last three decades, both China and India are considered as the largest emerging market economies in the world. Both of these economies play an essential role in the global economy in terms of economic output and CO2 emissions. Hence, these countries are expected to play an important role in setting up environmental and sustainable development policies. Therefore, our paper aims to examine the role of natural gas and renewable energy consumptions on CO2 emissions and economic growth during 1965-2016 within a multivariate framework. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is employed to explore the long-run and causal nexus among the natural gas consumption, renewable energy consumption, coal and petroleum consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth, respectively. The empirical results show existence of long-run equilibrium association among the variables. The Granger causality results indicate that the short-run bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in India, while no causality is found between these two variables in China. However, natural gas consumption causes economic growth in China whereas no causality is confirmed in India in the short-run. The findings further suggest that there is long-run bidirectional causality among the considered variables in both countries. Our paper addresses several important policy implications.

Access to clean technologies, energy, finance, and food: environmental sustainability agenda and its implications on Sub-Saharan African countries.

The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is far lag behind the sustainable targets that set out in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which is highly needed to embark the priorities by their member countries to devise sustainable policies for accessing clean technologies, energy demand, finance, and food production to mitigate high-mass carbon emissions and conserve environmental agenda in the national policy agenda. The study evaluated United Nation's SDGs for environmental conservation and emission reduction in the panel of 35 selected SSA countries, during a period of 1995-2016. The study further analyzed the variable's relationship in inter-temporal forecasting framework for the next 10 years' time period, i.e., 2017-2026. The parameter estimates for the two models, i.e., CO2 model and PM2.5 models are analyzed by Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator that handle possible endogeneity issue from the given models. The results rejected the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for CO2 emissions, while it supported for PM2.5 emissions with a turning point of US$5540 GDP per capita in constant 2010 US$. The results supported the "pollution haven hypothesis" for CO2 emissions, while this hypothesis is not verified for PM2.5 emissions. The major detrimental factors are technologies, FDI inflows, and food deficit that largely increase carbon emissions in a panel of SSA countries. The IPAT hypothesis is not verified in both the emissions; however, population density will largely influenced CO2 emissions in the next 10 years' time period. The PM2.5 emissions will largely be influenced by high per capita income, followed by trade openness, and technologies, over a time horizon. Thus, the United Nation's sustainable development agenda is highly influenced by socio-economic and environmental factors that need sound action plans by their member countries to coordinate and collaborate with each other and work for Africa's green growth agenda.

Determinants of renewable energy consumption in Africa.

Although the role that renewable energy consumption plays on economic growth and emissions has been widely studied, there are relatively few papers focusing on the determinants of renewable energy consumption, and only one study focuses on the factors related to the share of renewables in the energy consumption in Africa. This paper contributes to the literature by filling the gap in knowledge by exploring the nexus between the share of renewables in energy consumption and social and economic variables, for a panel consisting of 21 African countries for the period between 1990 and 2013, extending the set of variables and the time span used by a previous study. Estimating a random-effects generalized least squares regression, we find that countries with a higher Human Development Index and a higher gross domestic product per capita have a lower share of renewable energy in the national grid. On the other hand, an increase in foreign direct investment has been found to be related to higher renewable energy integration. The level of democracy, measured by the Freedom House political rights and civil liberties ratings, does not directly affect the integration level of renewable energy sources. The negative relationship between gross domestic product per capita and the share of renewables contradicts previous findings for developed countries. This contradiction and policy implications are discussed in the light of the review of the energy mix of the selected countries.

Research on New and Traditional Energy Sources in OECD Countries.

To mitigate the problems associated with climate change, the low-carbon economy concept is now being championed around the world in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure sustainable economic growth. Therefore, to reduce the dependence on traditional energy sources, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has been actively promoting the use of renewable energy. Past research has tended to neglect the influence of other pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and have mainly been based on static analyses. To make up for these research gaps, this study examined OECD country data from 2010⁻2014, with labor, fixed assets, new energy, and traditional energy as the inputs, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), carbon dioxide (CO2), and PM2.5 as the outputs, from which it was found: (1) the overall efficiency of the individual countries varied significantly, with nine countries being found to have efficiencies of 1 for all five years, but many others having efficiencies below 0.2; (2) in countries where there was a need for improvements in traditional energy (which here refers to coal, petroleum and other fossil energy sources), there was also a significant need for improvement in new energy sources (which here refers to clean energy which will produce pollutant emissions and can be directly used for production and life, including resources like nuclear energy and "renewable energy"); (3) countries with poor traditional energy and new energy efficiencies also had poor CO2 and PM2.5 efficiencies; (4) many OECD countries have made progress towards sustainable new energy developments.

Have wind turbines in Germany generated electricity as would be expected from the prevailing wind conditions in 2000-2014?

The planning of the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables requires estimates for how much electricity wind turbines can generate from the prevailing atmospheric conditions. Here, we estimate monthly ideal wind energy generation from datasets of wind speeds, air density and installed wind turbines in Germany and compare these to reported actual yields. Both yields were used in a statistical model to identify and quantify factors that reduced actual compared to ideal yields. The installed capacity within the region had no significant influence. Turbine age and park size resulted in significant yield reductions. Predicted yields increased from 9.1 TWh/a in 2000 to 58.9 TWh/a in 2014 resulting from an increase in installed capacity from 5.7 GW to 37.6 GW, which agrees very well with reported estimates for Germany. The age effect, which includes turbine aging and possibly other external effects, lowered yields from 3.6 to 6.7% from 2000 to 2014. The effect of park size decreased annual yields by 1.9% throughout this period. However, actual monthly yields represent on average only 73.7% of the ideal yields, with unknown causes. We conclude that the combination of ideal yields predicted from wind conditions with observed yields is suitable to derive realistic estimates of wind energy generation as well as realistic resource potentials.

Moderating and mediating role of renewable energy consumption, FDI inflows, and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from robust least square estimator.

The relationship between renewable energy consumption (REC), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, economic growth, and their resulting impact on CO2 emissions is widely discussed area in energy and environmental literature; however, there is an unseen literature on moderation and mediation effect of per capita income and FDI inflows with the renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions in developing countries like Pakistan, which is being evaluated in this study by using a consistent time series data for a period of 1975-2016. The results show that economic growth and FDI inflows both increase CO2 emissions, while REC substantially decreases CO2 emissions during the study time period. The results do not support the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for per capita income (and FDI inflows) and per capita CO2 emissions in a country. The results supported 'pollution haven hypothesis' where FDI inflows damage the natural flora of the country. By inclusion of moderation and mediation effect of per capita income and FDI inflows with the REC on CO2 emissions averted the positive impact of REC, and converted into negative externality, where environmental sustainability agenda is compromised by lower environmental regulations and unsustainable production techniques that increase country's economic growth. The study concludes that by adding REC in existing energy portfolio may help to reduce CO2 emissions while strict environmental compliance may disregard the negative externality of unsustainable production and it will support to achieve green development programmes in a country.