Leveraging malaria vaccines and mRNA technology to tackle the global inequity in pharmaceutical research and production towards disease elimination.

Malaria vaccine introduction in endemic countries is a game-changing milestone in the fight against the disease. This article examines the inequity in the global pharmaceutical research, development, manufacturing, and trade landscape. The role of inequity in hindering progress towards malaria elimination is explored. The analysis finds that transformational changes are required to create an equity-enabling environment. Addressing the inequity is critical to maximizing the public health impact of vaccines and attaining sustainability. Avenues to catalyze progress by leveraging malaria vaccines and messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology are discussed.

[Malaria vaccines: a new tool for elimination?] / Vaccins contre le paludisme : un nouvel outil pour l'élimination ?

A malaria vaccine represents an essential complementary tool to curb the stagnation, or even increase, in malaria cases observed over the last decade due to the emergence of resistance to insecticides impregnated on mosquito nets, wars and internal conflicts, as well as global warming. In October 2021, WHO recommended the use of the RTS,S/ASO1 vaccine for children aged 5-17 months in areas of moderate to high transmission. In October 2023, a second vaccine received WHO approval for deployment in the same population, following demonstration of around 70 % efficacy in protecting young children against malaria for one year. Given their partial efficacy, however, these vaccines are not generally recommended for travelers to endemic countries.

Un vaccin contre le paludisme représente une mesure complémentaire essentielle pour juguler la stagnation, voire l'augmentation des cas de paludisme observée durant cette dernière décade en raison de l'émergence de la résistance aux insecticides imprégnés sur les moustiquaires, des guerres et conflits internes ainsi que du réchauffement climatique. En octobre 2021, l'OMS a recommandé l'emploi du vaccin RTS,S/ASO1 pour les enfants de 5 à 17 mois dans les zones de transmission modérée à forte. En octobre 2023, un second vaccin a reçu l'aval de l'OMS pour son déploiement dans la même population, suite à la démonstration d'une efficacité d'environ 70 % pour protéger les jeunes enfants contre le paludisme pendant une année. Vu leur efficacité partielle, ces vaccins ne sont cependant généralement pas recommandés pour les voyageurs se rendant dans les pays d'endémie.

System-wide governance challenges of the Ebonyi State Malaria Elimination Programme and recommendations for malaria health system strengthening: a qualitative study among stakeholders in Ebonyi state, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: The burden of malaria has persistently been high in Ebonyi state and Nigeria despite long-standing collaborations with international partners with huge and increased amounts of financial investments. We explored the system-wide governance challenges of the Ebonyi State Malaria Elimination Programme (SMEP) and the factors responsible in order to make recommendations for malaria health system strengthening. DESIGN: We did a qualitative study informed by the health system governance framework by Mikkelsen-Lopez et al and Savedoff's concept of governance. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Between 18 October 2022 and 8 November 2022, 25 semistructured face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted in English with purposively selected key stakeholders in the Ebonyi SMEP aged 18 years or older with at least 2 years of involvement in the SMEP and who gave consent. ANALYSIS: Data were analysed deductively and the analytical strategy was informed by the framework method for the analysis of qualitative data by Gale et al. RESULTS: Many system-wide governance challenges of the SMEP were identified including the absence of state's strategic vision and plans for malaria elimination; very weak primary and secondary healthcare systems; inadequate financial allocation and untimely release of budgeted funds by the state government; lack of human resources for health and very poor mosquito net distribution system. Other challenges were inadequate stakeholders' participation; poor accountability culture; impaired transparency and corruption and impaired ability to address corruption. The fundamental responsible factors were the lack of state government's concern for people's welfare and lack of interest and commitment to the malaria elimination effort, chronic non-employment of staff and lack of human resources in the entire health sector including SMEP, and nepotism and godfatherism. CONCLUSIONS: The system-wide governance challenges and the responsible factors call for changing the 'business as usual' and refocusing on strengthening malaria health system governance in addressing the persisting malaria health problems in Ebonyi state (and Nigeria).

New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases.

The World Health Organization roadmap for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) sets out ambitious targets for disease control and elimination by 2030, including 90% fewer people requiring interventions against NTDs and the elimination of at least 1 NTD in 100 countries. Mathematical models are an important tool for understanding NTD dynamics, optimizing interventions, assessing the efficacy of new tools, and estimating the economic costs associated with control programs. As NTD control shifts to increased country ownership and programs progress toward disease elimination, tailored models that better incorporate local context and can help to address questions that are important for decision-making at the national level are gaining importance. In this introduction to the supplement, New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, we discuss current challenges in generating more locally relevant models and summarize how the articles in this supplement present novel ways in which NTD modeling can help to accelerate achievement and sustainability of the 2030 targets.

District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.

BACKGROUND: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program. METHODS: We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control. RESULTS: Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable. CONCLUSIONS: The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. METHODS: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. RESULTS: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.

BACKGROUND: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings. METHODS: We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84). RESULTS: Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames. METHODS: Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting. RESULTS: For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

BCG vaccination reduces bovine tuberculosis transmission, improving prospects for elimination.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a routinely used vaccine for protecting children against Mycobacterium tuberculosis that comprises attenuated Mycobacterium bovis. BCG can also be used to protect livestock against M. bovis; however, its effectiveness has not been quantified for this use. We performed a natural transmission experiment to directly estimate the rate of transmission to and from vaccinated and unvaccinated calves over a 1-year exposure period. The results show a higher indirect efficacy of BCG to reduce transmission from vaccinated animals that subsequently become infected [74%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 46 to 98%] compared with direct protection against infection (58%; 95% CrI: 34 to 73%) and an estimated total efficacy of 89% (95% CrI: 74 to 96%). A mechanistic transmission model of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread within the Ethiopian dairy sector was developed and showed how the prospects for elimination may be enabled by routine BCG vaccination of cattle.

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption. METHODOLOGY: We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period. RESULTS: Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%. CONCLUSION: Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

Leveraging opportunities for treatment/user simplicity (LOTUS): Navigating the current treatment landscape for achieving hepatitis C virus elimination among persons who inject drugs.

All-oral, direct-acting antivirals can cure hepatitis C virus (HCV) in almost all infected individuals; yet, many individuals with chronic HCV are not treated, and the incidence of acute HCV is increasing in some countries, including the United States. Strains on healthcare resources during the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the progress toward the World Health Organization goal to eliminate HCV by 2030, especially among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Here, we present a holistic conceptual framework termed LOTUS (Leveraging Opportunities for Treatment/User Simplicity), designed to integrate the current HCV practice landscape and invigorate HCV treatment programs in the setting of endemic COVID-19: (A) treatment as prevention (especially among PWID), (B) recognition that HCV cure may be achieved with variable adherence with evidence supporting some forgiveness for missed doses, (C) treatment of all persons with active HCV infection (viremic), regardless of acuity, (D) minimal monitoring (MinMon) during treatment, and (E) rapid test and treat (TnT). The objective of this article is to review the current literature supporting each LOTUS petal; identify remaining gaps in knowledge or data; define the remaining barriers facing healthcare providers; and review evidence-based strategies for overcoming key barriers.

Changes in Anti-OV-16 IgG4 Responses to Onchocerciasis after Elimination of Transmission in the Central Endemic Zone of Guatemala.

Current WHO guidelines for onchocerciasis elimination provide requirements for stopping mass drug administration of ivermectin and the verification of elimination of transmission. These guidelines also recommend post-elimination surveillance (PES) based on entomological surveys. Serological markers in humans could complement entomological PES once the longevity of anti-OV-16 antibody responses is better understood. In 2014-2015 we evaluated ELISA anti-OV-16 IgG4 antibody persistence among previously seropositive people from the central endemic zone of Guatemala. The country stopped all onchocerciasis program interventions in 2012 and was verified by WHO as having eliminated transmission of onchocerciasis in 2016. A total of 246 participants with prior OV-16 ELISA results from 2003, 2006, 2007, or 2009 were enrolled in a follow-up study. Of these, 77 people were previously OV-16 seropositive and 169 were previously seronegative. By 2014 and 2015, 56 (72.7%) previously seropositive individuals had sero-reverted, whereas all previous negatives remained seronegative. The progression of antibody responses over time was estimated using a mixed-effects linear regression model, using data from seropositive participants who had sero-reverted. The temporal variation showed a mean activity unit decay of 0.20 per year (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.17, 0.23), corresponding to an estimated antibody response half-life of 3.3 years (95% CrI: 2.7, 4.1). These findings indicate that the majority of seropositive people will sero-revert over time.

Policy Evolution and Lessons Learned from China's Efforts to Eliminate Leprosy.

The prevention and treatment of leprosy is a public health and social issue of global concern. China has become the first country in the world to put forward a proposal on the elimination of the harm caused by leprosy. This paper briefly introduces the status of the spread of leprosy in China, and systematically reviews the evolution of policies and measures at different stages of the disease in China, from the serious epidemic of leprosy to the control of the infection, to the basic elimination, and to the elimination of the hazards. On this basis, five main lessons learned from the control and elimination of leprosy in China were also summarized. These provide the basis for promoting the complete global elimination of leprosy and preventing its re-transmission, thereby benefiting all those who still suffer from the scourge of leprosy.

Cervical screening among LGBTQ people: how affirming services may aid in achieving cervical cancer elimination targets.

To reach cervical cancer elimination targets it is necessary to increase screening rates among underserved populations such as LGBTQ communities. This paper examines rates of attendance and associated factors of cervical screening in LGBTQ communities. Data from 2,424 people aged 25 to 74 years and assigned female at birth were drawn from an online national Australian survey of LGBTQ adults. Over half of the sample had accessed cervical screening in the past 2 years. Using a multivariable logistic regression analysis, significant associations were found between screening, sociodemographic traits and health-care access. Trans men were least likely to access cervical screening, while bisexual, pansexual and queer identified participants were most likely to access screening. People who lived outside inner-suburban areas and those who had a disability were less likely to have had screening. Evidence of trusting relationships with a general practitioner (having a regular GP and GP's knowledge of the individual's LGBTQ identity) increased the likelihood that participants had screened, as did recent access to a medical service that was LGBTQ-inclusive or catered specifically to LGBTQ communities. The findings suggest the importance of training health providers, as well as targeted public health messaging for increasing uptake of cervical screening among LGBTQ people.