Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Ant evolution: Amber revelations of extinction, survival and recovery.

Ant fossils from the Cretaceous are rare but critical for understanding the early evolution of this incredibly successful group of animals. New amber fossils fill important gaps, revealing patterns of death, survival, and radiation around the end Cretaceous extinction.

Climate-forced Hg-remobilization associated with fern mutagenesis in the aftermath of the end-Triassic extinction.

The long-term effects of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, a large igneous province connected to the end-Triassic mass-extinction (201.5 Ma), remain largely elusive. Here, we document the persistence of volcanic-induced mercury (Hg) pollution and its effects on the biosphere for ~1.3 million years after the extinction event. In sediments recovered in Germany (Schandelah-1 core), we record not only high abundances of malformed fern spores at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, but also during the lower Jurassic Hettangian, indicating repeated vegetation disturbance and stress that was eccentricity-forced. Crucially, these abundances correspond to increases in sedimentary Hg-concentrations. Hg-isotope ratios (δ202Hg, Δ199Hg) suggest a volcanic source of Hg-enrichment at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary but a terrestrial source for the early Jurassic peaks. We conclude that volcanically injected Hg across the extinction was repeatedly remobilized from coastal wetlands and hinterland areas during eccentricity-forced phases of severe hydrological upheaval and erosion, focusing Hg-pollution in the Central European Basin.

Discrimination of ivory from extant and extinct elephant species using Raman spectroscopy: A potential non-destructive technique for combating illegal wildlife trade.

The use of elephant ivory as a commodity is a factor in declining elephant populations. Despite recent worldwide elephant ivory trade bans, mammoth ivory trade remains unregulated. This complicates law enforcement efforts, as distinguishing between ivory from extant and extinct species requires costly, destructive and time consuming methods. Elephant and mammoth ivory mainly consists of dentine, a mineralized connective tissue that contains an organic collagenous component and an inorganic component of calcium phosphate minerals, similar in structure to hydroxyapatite crystals. Raman spectroscopy is a non-invasive laser-based technique that has previously been used for the study of bone and mineral chemistry. Ivory and bone have similar biochemical properties, making Raman spectroscopy a promising method for species identification based on ivory. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that it is possible to identify differences in the chemistry of mammoth and elephant ivory using Raman spectroscopy. Mammoth and elephant tusks were obtained from the Natural History Museum in London, UK. Included in this study were eight samples of ivory from Mammuthus primigenius, two samples of carved ivory bangles from Africa (Loxodonta species), and one cross section of a tusk from Elephas maximus. The ivory was scanned using an inVia Raman micro spectrometer equipped with a x50 objective lens and a 785nm laser. Spectra were acquired using line maps and individual spectral points were acquired randomly or at points of interest on all samples. The data was then analysed using principal component analysis (PCA) with use of an in-house MATLAB script. Univariate analysis of peak intensity ratios of phosphate to amide I and III peaks, and carbonate to phosphate peaks showed statistical differences (p<0.0001) in the average peak intensity ratios between Mammuthus primigenius, Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus. Full width at half maximum hight (FWHM)analysis of the phosphate peak demonstrated higher crystal maturity of Mammuthus primigenius compared to living elephant species. The results of the study have established that spectra acquired by Raman spectroscopy can be separated into distinct classes through PCA. In conclusion, this study has shown that well-preserved mammoth and elephant ivory has the potential to be characterized using Raman spectroscopy, providing a promising method for species identification. The results of this study will be valuable in developing quick and non-destructive methods for the identification of ivory, which will have direct applications in archaeology and the regulation of international trade.

Analysis of long transients and detection of early warning signals of extinction in a class of predator-prey models exhibiting bistable behavior.

In this paper, we develop a method of analyzing long transient dynamics in a class of predator-prey models with two species of predators competing explicitly for their common prey, where the prey evolves on a faster timescale than the predators. In a parameter regime near a singular zero-Hopf bifurcation of the coexistence equilibrium state, we assume that the system under study exhibits bistability between a periodic attractor that bifurcates from the singular Hopf point and another attractor, which could be a periodic attractor or a point attractor, such that the invariant manifolds of the coexistence equilibrium point play central roles in organizing the dynamics. To find whether a solution that starts in a vicinity of the coexistence equilibrium approaches the periodic attractor or the other attractor, we reduce the equations to a suitable normal form, and examine the basin boundary near the singular Hopf point. A key component of our study includes an analysis of the long transient dynamics, characterized by their rapid oscillations with a slow variation in amplitude, by applying a moving average technique. We obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions on the initial values of a solution near the coexistence equilibrium to determine whether it lies in the basin of attraction of the periodic attractor. As a result of our analysis, we devise a method of identifying early warning signals, significantly in advance, of a future crisis that could lead to extinction of one of the predators. The analysis is applied to the predator-prey model considered in Sadhu (Discrete Contin Dyn Syst B 26:5251-5279, 2021) and we find that our theory is in good agreement with the numerical simulations carried out for this model.

Colonial-driven extinction of the blue antelope despite genomic adaptation to low population size.

Low genomic diversity is generally indicative of small population size and is considered detrimental by decreasing long-term adaptability.1,2,3,4,5,6 Moreover, small population size may promote gene flow with congeners and outbreeding depression.7,8,9,10,11,12,13 Here, we examine the connection between habitat availability, effective population size (Ne), and extinction by generating a 40× nuclear genome from the extinct blue antelope (Hippotragus leucophaeus). Historically endemic to the relatively small Cape Floristic Region in southernmost Africa,14,15 populations were thought to have expanded and contracted across glacial-interglacial cycles, tracking suitable habitat.16,17,18 However, we found long-term low Ne, unaffected by glacial cycles, suggesting persistence with low genomic diversity for many millennia prior to extinction in ∼AD 1800. A lack of inbreeding, alongside high levels of genetic purging, suggests adaptation to this long-term low Ne and that human impacts during the colonial era (e.g., hunting and landscape transformation), rather than longer-term ecological processes, were central to its extinction. Phylogenomic analyses uncovered gene flow between roan (H. equinus) and blue antelope, as well as between roan and sable antelope (H. niger), approximately at the time of divergence of blue and sable antelope (∼1.9 Ma). Finally, we identified the LYST and ASIP genes as candidates for the eponymous bluish pelt color of the blue antelope. Our results revise numerous aspects of our understanding of the interplay between genomic diversity and evolutionary history and provide the resources for uncovering the genetic basis of this extinct species' unique traits.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Kill wolves to save caribou? Sadly, it seems to work.

Some worry the findings will stall efforts to halt logging-the root cause of caribou population declines.

The positive impact of conservation action.

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation.

More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

Prolonged faunal turnover in earliest ants revealed by North American Cretaceous amber.

All ∼14,000 extant ant species descended from the same common ancestor, which lived ∼140-120 million years ago (Ma).1,2 While modern ants began to diversify in the Cretaceous, recent fossil evidence has demonstrated that older lineages concomitantly occupied the same ancient ecosystems.3 These early-diverging ant lineages, or stem ants, left no modern descendants; however, they dominated the fossil record throughout the Cretaceous until their ultimate extinction sometime around the K-Pg boundary. Even as stem ant lineages appear to be diverse and abundant throughout the Cretaceous, the extent of their longevity in the fossil record and circumstances contributing to their extinction remain unknown.3 Here we report the youngest stem ants, preserved in ∼77 Ma Cretaceous amber from North Carolina, which illustrate unexpected morphological stability and lineage persistence in this enigmatic group, rivaling the longevity of contemporary ants. Through phylogenetic reconstruction and morphometric analyses, we find evidence that total taxic turnover in ants was not accompanied by a fundamental morphological shift, in contrast to other analogous stem extinctions such as theropod dinosaurs. While stem taxa showed broad morphological variation, high-density ant morphospace remained relatively constant through the last 100 million years, detailing a parallel, but temporally staggered, evolutionary history of modern and stem ants.

New Canadian amber deposit fills gap in fossil record near end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

Amber preserves an exceptional record of tiny, soft-bodied organisms and chemical environmental signatures, elucidating the evolution of arthropod lineages and the diversity, ecology, and biogeochemistry of ancient ecosystems. However, globally, fossiliferous amber deposits are rare in the latest Cretaceous and surrounding the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction.1,2,3,4,5 This faunal gap limits our understanding of arthropod diversity and survival across the extinction boundary.2,6 Contrasting hypotheses propose that arthropods were either relatively unaffected by the K-Pg extinction or experienced a steady decline in diversity before the extinction event followed by rapid diversification in the Cenozoic.2,6 These hypotheses are primarily based on arthropod feeding traces on fossil leaves and time-calibrated molecular phylogenies, not direct observation of the fossil record.2,7 Here, we report a diverse amber assemblage from the Late Cretaceous (67.04 ± 0.16 Ma) of the Big Muddy Badlands, Canada. The new deposit fills a critical 16-million-year gap in the arthropod fossil record spanning the K-Pg mass extinction. Seven arthropod orders and at least 11 insect families have been recovered, making the Big Muddy amber deposit the most diverse arthropod assemblage near the K-Pg extinction. Amber chemistry and stable isotopes suggest the amber was produced by coniferous (Cupressaceae) trees in a subtropical swamp near remnants of the Western Interior Seaway. The unexpected abundance of ants from extant families and the virtual absence of arthropods from common, exclusively Cretaceous families suggests that Big Muddy amber may represent a yet unsampled Late Cretaceous environment and provides evidence of a faunal transition before the end of the Cretaceous.

The Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution buffered ants against extinction.

With ~14,000 extant species, ants are ubiquitous and of tremendous ecological importance. They have undergone remarkable diversification throughout their evolutionary history. However, the drivers of their diversity dynamics are not well quantified or understood. Previous phylogenetic analyses have suggested patterns of diversity dynamics associated with the Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution (ATR), but these studies have overlooked valuable information from the fossil record. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using a large dataset that includes both the ant fossil record (~24,000 individual occurrences) and neontological data (~14,000 occurrences), and tested four hypotheses proposed for ant diversification: co-diversification, competitive extinction, hyper-specialization, and buffered extinction. Taking into account biases in the fossil record, we found three distinct diversification periods (the latest Cretaceous, Eocene, and Oligo-Miocene) and one extinction period (Late Cretaceous). The competitive extinction hypothesis between stem and crown ants is not supported. Instead, we found support for the co-diversification, buffered extinction, and hyper-specialization hypotheses. The environmental changes of the ATR, mediated by the angiosperm radiation, likely played a critical role in buffering ants against extinction and favoring their diversification by providing new ecological niches, such as forest litter and arboreal nesting sites, and additional resources. We also hypothesize that the decline and extinction of stem ants during the Late Cretaceous was due to their hyper-specialized morphology, which limited their ability to expand their dietary niche in changing environments. This study highlights the importance of a holistic approach when studying the interplay between past environments and the evolutionary trajectories of organisms.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales.

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Fishing for oil and meat drives irreversible defaunation of deepwater sharks and rays.

The deep ocean is the last natural biodiversity refuge from the reach of human activities. Deepwater sharks and rays are among the most sensitive marine vertebrates to overexploitation. One-third of threatened deepwater sharks are targeted, and half the species targeted for the international liver-oil trade are threatened with extinction. Steep population declines cannot be easily reversed owing to long generation lengths, low recovery potentials, and the near absence of management. Depth and spatial limits to fishing activity could improve conservation when implemented alongside catch regulations, bycatch mitigation, and international trade regulation. Deepwater sharks and rays require immediate trade and fishing regulations to prevent irreversible defaunation and promote recovery of this threatened megafauna group.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover.

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

The Clade Replacement Theory: a framework to study age-dependent extinction.

There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration.